Agricultural development in Russia: realities and prospects. Development of agriculture in Russia: realities and prospects Increasing the role of the state in the development of agriculture in Russia

A record grain harvest and fairly good indicators for other agricultural crops, as well as an increase in livestock production, allowed agriculture to grow by 2.4%. However, such a high base against the backdrop of relatively low prices, stagnant demand and a lack of new drivers is likely to provoke a slowdown in the industry this year.

According to the first estimate Rosstat, Russia's GDP grew by 1.5% in 2017 after shrinking by 0.2% in 2016. Agriculture overtook the economy for the fifth time in a row, adding 2.4% after 4.8% a year earlier. True, both results can still be adjusted: by mid-February, the final data of the annual accounts, including those of small and medium-sized enterprises, were not taken into account. In addition, in the spring, the statistics department will obviously increase the harvest in 2017: the harvesting of corn and sunflower continued in winter. True, it is unlikely that the GDP and the agricultural sector will eventually reach the figures expected by the Ministry of Economic Development and Ministry of Agriculture... The first, at the end of last year, calculated that economic growth would exceed 2%. Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev hoped that by the end of 2017, the industry would add at least 3%, or even all 4%. Although the official forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Agriculture regarding the dynamics of agricultural production fluctuated in the range from zero to 1.2%, and the agro-program included an indicator of 1.7%. A twofold decrease in the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex to the level of 2016, despite the renewal of the record for grain harvest, is due to the fact that relatively low prices for agricultural products remain in the world, and the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate also affected.

Livestock grew faster

The volume of agricultural production at the end of 2017, taking into account the adjustment of monthly indicators, exceeded 5.6 trillion rubles. Including crop production accounted for about 3 trillion rubles, livestock - 2.6 trillion rubles. Contrary to fears, the grain harvest not only did not decline due to the weather, but also turned out to be a record one, which became one of the key factors in the industry's growth. The harvest reached 134.1 million tons, which is 11.2% more than in 2016. At the same time, by the last decade of December 2017, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, more than 410 thousand hectares, or 14% of corn crops had to be harvested. Also, almost 990 thousand hectares of sunflower remained unthreaded, therefore Rosstat previously recorded a decrease in its collection. In addition, the harvests of sugar beets and potatoes decreased. In general, the crop sector added 2.1%, while in 2016 it grew by 7.6%.

The dynamics in animal husbandry in 2017 turned out to be higher than a year earlier - 2.8% compared to 1.5%. For the first time since 2012, the industry has grown more than crop production, and in contrast to the previous eight years, the production of not only meat and eggs, but also milk made a positive contribution. The gross milk yield in all farms increased by 1.2%, or 361.7 thousand tons, to 31.1 million tons. The production of commercial milk, according to "", increased by 2.8%, reaching 21.2 million tons In the meat segment, the poultry industry regained its lost leadership in terms of growth dynamics, adding 6.9% after slowing down to plus 1.9% in 2016, while the production of pigs for slaughter increased by 5% against 8.7% in 2016. By cattle Rosstat preliminarily recorded no changes, a year earlier the sector's indicator fell by 1.8%.

According to the forecast of the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies ( ICAR), in March when adjusting the crop data for 2017 Rosstat may add about 1 million tons of grain due to unaccounted corn, and an additional estimate for sunflower will be made. As a result, carryover stocks of grain by the end of the 2017/18 season will reach a record 26.6 million tons, of which 19 million tons will be wheat, the CEO estimates. ICAR Dmitry Rylko. Thanks to the "frenzied" exports, they will decrease, but there is a high probability that the balances in the Volga region and Siberia will be very large, but this is due, among other things, to the fact that most of the grain of the intervention fund is stored there. Although at the end of 2017, the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex turned out to be lower than in 2016, in general, this is still a very decent result, which the industry can be proud of, he is sure.

The year was not easy for the agricultural sector, says Vitaly Sheremet, partner, head of the competence center in the agro-industrial complex of KPMG in Russia and the CIS. A high grain harvest, world price dynamics and unresolved internal problems with grain logistics negatively affected domestic prices, so grain producers significantly fell short of the planned financial indicators for the season, and some even went into negative territory or stopped selling in the hope of a rebound in prices. An additional problem for traders was the changes in the market associated with the signing of the Charter in the field of agricultural products turnover, comments Sheremet.

Companies of the next redistribution, traditionally focused on the domestic market (meat, milk), against the background of the dynamics of the cost of grain and fodder, turned out to be a winner, since they were able to improve the cost of production. “At the same time, the savings were not passed along the chain to the consumer: although the prices on the shelves decreased, in particular for poultry meat, they rather reflected the problem of overproduction than the improvement of the producers' economy,” the expert believes.

Last year was more favorable for pig farmers than for poultry farmers, thinks the head of strategic marketing of the group “ Cherkizovo»Andrey Dalnov. “This is true for our company and, I think, for the market as a whole and is explained by the dynamics of retail prices,” he says. According to Rosstat, the pork price index in the first quarter of 2017 decreased by 1.5%, and for broilers - increased by 4%, as a result, demand partially shifted in favor of the first, and consumer inertia lasted until the fourth quarter of last year. In December 2017, prices for poultry meat were almost 7% lower than a year earlier, pork (except for boneless meat) was on average 2% cheaper, it follows from the data Rosstat... "Now the ratio of retail prices for different types of meat shows that the consumer should" migrate "back to chicken, so it can be assumed that this year will be difficult for pig farmers, but perhaps their situation will be partially corrected by the ban on the import of Brazilian pork," says Dalnov.

2017 was a year of stable development, says the CEO of the group “ Prodo"Peter Ilyukhin. True, the decline in prices for poultry and pork affected the margins of market participants, but it also provoked an increase in the consumption of these types of meat, he says. “For example, prices for poultry meat in the second half of the year fell by 15%. At the same time, the volume of consumption increased by 3.1% over the year, pork began to be consumed by 4.5% more, and in general, the figure for meat increased by 3%, "he cites the data, specifying that in the meat processing segment, demand during the year did not increase.

The dynamics of agricultural production invariably outstrips GDP growth, which is expected and logical, given the state support for investments in the industry, as well as the market situation, which until recently was very promising in terms of profitability, says Daria Snitko, head of the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting. “Our Center has been saying for several years that the food market in 2014, against the background of the devaluation of the ruble and the introduction of the pro-embargo, received a significant impetus for development: the growth in prices for the sector's products outstripped the increase in costs, which contributed to the recovery of a number of industries and the“ accumulation ”of a certain financial cushion. leaders, ”she says.

At the same time, it was logical to assume that this situation will not last forever and profitability will decline. The strengthening of the ruble last year, as well as significant gains in import substitution, reducing the deficit and even overproduction of certain types of products, such as sugar, have led to food deflation. The farmers will have to live with this new phenomenon in 2018, Snitko is sure: profitability will continue to fall, and the financial situation of the industry will depend on the effectiveness of the struggle to reduce costs. In addition, all these processes led to fierce competition, first in the poultry market, then in pork and sugar. In the coming years, it will escalate in the segments of the production of raw milk, vegetables, oilseeds, the expert adds.

Competition between poultry and pork producers increased last year, as the broiler market has already reached saturation levels, and pork is close to that, Ilyukhin agrees. In addition, pork imports to Russia increased in 2017, while domestic production also increased. “Now the advantages are given to those companies that already have strong brands, and this applies not only to meat processing, but also to the sale of packaged meat and cutting,” he is sure.

Need to go into recycling
Interesting and less volatile than agricultural production is the consumer sector - the production of products with high added value, says Vitaly Sheremet. This is true for both domestic and foreign markets. “I think our producers are realizing this and are starting to invest more actively in processing and in working with the market,” he notes. - It seems to me that this direction is still underestimated in our country, and serious growth is possible here. Cheese is the most obvious example. "
The production of cheese and other dairy products has the greatest potential, agrees Timur Nigmatullin. There is also potential in the cultivation of greenhouse vegetables and herbs, in winemaking. However, he adds that, in general, it is difficult to talk about trends in agriculture, since the industry is extremely unpredictable, especially since most regions of the country belong to the zones of risky farming. And the competitiveness of the industry in terms of developing export potential is under a very big question, especially in crop production due to the ban on GMOs, the analyst said.

It will be difficult to repeat the result

In 2018, the agro-industrial complex will not be easy to continue its positive dynamics, although in January Alexander Tkachev said that he expects growth at a level of at least 3%. The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is plus 0.5% in agriculture and 2.1-2.2% for the entire economy. True, in April the ministry plans to prepare a new forecast based on the oil price of $ 50-60 per barrel, while in the current baseline and target scenarios, $ 43.8 / barrel is provided.

In 2018, for a number of reasons, the same increase in agricultural production as in 2017, most likely, will not happen, ICAR while predicting the dynamics at the level of 1.3%. “We have a modest estimate for this year, since the starting base is very high,” explains Dmitry Rylko. In 2017, crop production had a record harvest of cereals and sugar beets, very good harvests of oilseeds, which will be extremely difficult to repeat, and growth in livestock and poultry farming will begin to fade. At the same time, only the weather can affect the decrease in the final indicator of the development of the industry, as well as its increase, the expert suggests. “I do not see anything else on the horizon for lowering the forecast, and for raising it, too, only if the weather is favorable, we can expect that the growth will be greater,” he comments. Other factors, such as government support for agricultural producers, do not have an immediate impact on the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex. In general, the industry will face a difficult year, the expert is sure.

In 2018, Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting is still expecting a decline in agricultural production. The main reason is the likely reduction in gross collection relative to the 2017 record. Despite the fact that there was a decrease in the sowing of winter crops in the Center and in the Volga region, wheat took about the same amount as for the harvest last year, and the state of winter crops by mid-February did not cause serious concerns, Rylko recalls. Therefore, if we talk about the contours of the next season, then while the most realistic scenario seems to be a grain harvest at the level of 120-130 million tons, estimates ICAR. Ministry of Agriculture in early February, he predicted a harvest of 106 million tons, and later raised the bar to "at least 110 million tons." “We still do not believe in the figure of 106 million tons: there are no grounds or signs that Russia will reap such a modest harvest,” Rylko notes. If the mark of 120-130 million tons is reached, then the export potential will be 45-50 million tons, and ending stocks - 24.6-26.6 million tons.

Season starting price ICAR predicts at $ 190-192 / t (FOB Novorossiysk). According to Rylko, this year another increase in interest in grains and oilseeds is expected in the world, as we exit the period of low prices for them and move to more attractive values in dollar terms. The domestic sugar beet sector will have to improve efficiency and solve infrastructure problems for the development of exports. Slow, hard and thoughtful work will continue on meat, the expert adds.

In 2018, poultry producers will find themselves in the most difficult situation, says Daria Snitko. This segment cannot yet fully realize export opportunities, although the weakening of the ruble this year will improve the position of exporters, and if demand inside the country grows, it will be slow. “Perhaps we will see the consolidation of the industry, the departure of some players from the market. These are the consequences of overproduction, which in a couple of years may be faced by other segments that have been actively growing since 2010, ”notes Snitko.

She adds that a lot will depend on export policies and household income levels, which can spur demand growth. However, while there is no feeling that the situation is improving, the expert draws attention. “Therefore, it is hardly worth counting on a significant increase in effective demand, but manufacturers and the distribution chain can find reserves for growth, eliminating the traditional problems of the sector with quality and logistics, thereby increasing their sales,” says Snitko.

As for the influence of macroeconomic factors on the industry, the situation remains difficult and poorly predictable, Rylko draws attention. “For example, regarding the increase in household incomes, we see that, despite the resumption of small economic growth, there was another drawdown, and even according to the optimistic forecast of the Ministry of Finance in 2020 we will not be able to return to the level of the base 2013, at best we will reach the indicators 2011, ”he notes.

According to Otkritie Broker analyst Timur Nigmatullin, the expected increase in household incomes within 1-2.5% is likely to support the consumption of dairy products, pork and poultry. Demand for meat, natural semi-finished meat products and dairy products will gradually grow, Snitko agrees.

2018 is unlikely to be an easy year, Ilyukhin fears. It is not worth expecting an explosive development of markets, since there is no activation of consumer demand and an increase in the purchasing power of the population. The sharp drops in demand from pork to broiler, depending on the level of retail prices, are explained by the fact that people continue to get poorer, Dalnov concludes. The decline in real disposable income in 2017 was 1.7%. “Further impoverishment of the population is a risk not only for the industry, but also for the economy as a whole,” he emphasizes. “It will be more difficult for manufacturers to increase production of value-added products if the forecasts for economic growth and population incomes do not come true.” The Ministry of Economic Development expects that this year the income of the population will add 2.3-2.4%, however, at the end of 2017, the department also expected positive dynamics at the level of 1.3%.

This year in “ AFG National"Do not see any serious potential threats to their crop business, says Yuri Belov, general director of the holding. The experience gained by the company allows us to take into account possible changes in weather conditions in technological processes, and the quality of business processes ensures high economic stability of the holding. If we take the macroeconomic aspect, then in general, in recent years, the growth rate of the agricultural sector has significantly exceeded other sectors of the economy, and positive dynamics continues, the top manager said.

The main macroeconomic factor that will affect the industry this year is the ruble exchange rate, says Daria Snitko. Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting expects its slight weakening to 60-62 rubles / $ 1 amid forecasts for oil price correction and in response to capital outflow dynamics.
For exporters, the ruble exchange rate remains important, agrees Vitaly Sheremet. “There are expectations that the period of relative stability may end after the elections,” he warns. “On the other hand, the dynamics of oil prices provided unexpected support to the ruble, and this trend may also continue.” Another important factor is the dynamics of the Central Bank's key rate, but for this factor to work, the result of the rate cut should be affordable loans, the expert is sure. However, Andrei Klepach believes that interest rates will still remain extremely high even if the key rate of the Central Bank is reduced, therefore, a serious gap in the profitability of Russian manufacturers and Western competitors will remain.
At the same time, a relatively strong ruble and a decrease in interest rates on loans following the key rate of the Central Bank will support the demand for imported goods, including the means of production in the agro-industrial complex, Timur Nigmatullin draws attention. On the other hand, the strengthening of the ruble will restrain the export potential.

Milk needs to be saved again

Vitaly Sheremet considers milk producers to be one of the few beneficiaries of 2017, the prices of which have increased in the last 1.5-2 years, which has improved the economy of dairy projects. As a result, there is a significant amount of investment in the industry from both internal and external investors. Judging by the announced projects, the positive trend in the sector will continue in 2018 and possibly in 2019, he adds.

However, Dmitry Rylko, on the contrary, believes that the dairy industry risks becoming a serious problem for the entire agricultural industry and regulators. “We are ringing the bells because the entire growth of commercial milk production in 2017 went to stocks. Moreover, if in terms of raw materials we added 700 thousand tons, then the reserves in terms of milk increased by 800 thousand tons, the expert compares. “In terms of dry milk, stocks doubled production, the situation is extremely risky, since the cost of raw materials at the time of formation of stocks was very high.”

In order to prevent the development of negative trends, measures are needed to regulate the market, I am sure the executive director of "" Artem Belov. First, the state needs to support domestic demand - to fight counterfeiting, change the public procurement system, start a domestic food aid program, and promote the benefits of dairy products. An important measure should be the protection of the domestic market and ensuring the transparency of the supply of dairy products within the EAEU and from Ukraine, the expert is sure. In addition, it is necessary to develop export, which is one of the most underestimated areas. According to Belov, now foreign supplies of milk products are estimated at about $ 300 million, but the potential is many times greater.

Yuri Belov
General Director of "AFG National"
Last year, we did not have any serious problems, if we do not take into account the cold weather, but our specialists have traditionally foreseen their actions in cases of cold weather, rain, heat or drought. The experience we have accumulated both in field work and in obtaining borrowed funds and state support has excluded possible disruptions in the production schedule. We also received all the required subsidies. The main problem is traditionally the budget deficit, which is why the amount of state support is lower than the calculated values.
Our rice harvest amounted to 186 thousand tons, which is 4 thousand tons more than in 2016, but due to bad weather during the sowing season, we could not reach the planned targets. But in terms of potatoes and vegetables, we achieved the expected results, although our vegetable growers were prevented by the cold weather in the first half of the summer, this slightly affected the final harvest. We received 41 thousand tons of ware potatoes, which is slightly lower than in 2016, but we purposefully made a slight reduction in production and paid more attention to the quality of products, rather than their quantity. The carrot harvest amounted to 20 thousand tons. This year we plan to harvest 70 thousand tons of potatoes and 20 thousand tons of carrots.
For apples, last year we also reached the planned harvest - 4 thousand tons, more than 3.3 thousand tons were laid for storage. Last year, we began to plant the third stage of intensive-type orchards in the Krasnodar Territory, we are completing the construction of the first stage of a fruit storage with a sorting unit.

Export is the future of the industry

Working with external markets should become an important trend in 2018 for the entire agro-industrial complex, Vitaly Sheremet is sure. “If we do not achieve results in poultry and pork, we will see serious consequences in the form of redistribution of markets, bankruptcies, bad debts, etc.,” he warns. It is important for our manufacturers to understand target markets and consolidate efforts to position products in them. However, Andrey Dalnov reminds of the current risks for the industry of the spread of African swine fever (ASF) and avian influenza. “The difficult epizootic situation impedes the development of external sales, which could become an alternative to traditional sales channels - sales to retail chains and meat processing plants,” he notes.

Sheremet agrees that ASF and avian influenza issues really need to be addressed, but he adds that, for example, the supply of thermally processed products (ready-to-eat) allows us to bypass the existing restrictions on Russian meat. However, in this case, another problem is exposed: poor understanding of consumer preferences in target markets and weak competence of our manufacturers in marketing high value added products. Another complication is that potential consumers abroad are not aware of Russia's potential as a food supplier. “We have not been present in these markets as an exporter of food products for almost 100 years, if we consider the achievements of Tsarist Russia as a starting point,” the expert emphasizes. “Therefore, building a country food brand in foreign markets is one of the main tasks of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Russian Export Center.”

Now one of the key factors in the development of the market is export, and in this regard, the agricultural sector has room to grow, Dmitry Rylko agrees with him. So, in 2017, Russia exported about 64 million tons of agricultural raw materials and food for $ 20.3 billion, while imported products for almost $ 29 billion, but in volume - only 22 million tons. “This suggests that our exports are huge, but cheap, - sums up the expert. "Our country should gradually switch to the export of products with higher added value." According to the forecast ICAR, this year, if the ruble does not fall and is relatively stable, then both exports and imports of food will continue to increase.

The turn to export is indeed a huge achievement of the Russian agro-industrial complex, says Andrey Klepach, chief economist and deputy chairman of the board of Vnesheconombank, however, according to him, the first easy step in this direction has already been taken, and it will be more difficult to increase the indicators further. “We will not be able to quickly increase domestic production: grain harvests may decrease due to the weather, meat and vegetables also have nowhere to grow, while prices have fallen,” he said at the beginning of February during the “Where is the margin” conference. - It's the same with export. We came out with huge volumes of grain, but it will be difficult to maintain such indicators further, taking into account the competition, the growth of world production, our problems with the infrastructure. " In his opinion, in terms of grain, we are no longer just at the ceiling of opportunities, but rather even a little above it. Russia enters foreign markets with sugar, expands the supply of fat and oil products, but it will not be possible to sharply increase the export of, for example, meat, because it is very expensive and difficult from the point of view of logistics and certification of enterprises.

Vitaly Sheremet
Partner, Head of the Competence Center in the agro-industrial complex of KPMG in Russia and the CIS
The agro-industrial complex has shown very good growth in recent years, especially against the general economic background. To maintain this dynamics and achieve the goals that are being voiced - in particular, in terms of export volume - comprehensive measures are needed to fundamentally solve the accumulated problems. Work is already underway to revise the priorities of state support: more attention needs to be paid to innovation, infrastructure, exports - everything that creates equal opportunities for producers. An important direction is the support of small forms, which not only solve a social problem, but also improve the economy of the sector through mobility and efficiency.
It is also worth noting the increased interest in the sector on the part of the top officials of the regions. And if earlier this interest was reflected in the expected results of statistics, then today absolutely business objectives are set. The regions are no longer waiting for an initiative from the center; they are ready to invest and promote their companies both on the federal and world markets. This is a very good trend, because the Russian brand on the global market is made up of a mosaic of regional brands. And we have something to offer in this respect. It is national products, recipes, cuisine that can interest the consumer, who is somewhat tired of the impersonal large-scale production of transnational corporations.

Where to invest

By February 19 Rosstat has not yet released data on investment dynamics in 2017. According to the results of the first nine months of last year, investments in fixed assets in agriculture amounted to 226.9 billion rubles, which is 2.4% more than in the same period of 2016. Investments across all sectors of the economy added 1.6%.

It is better not to talk about new niches for investment in agriculture, Rylko is sure. “If we notice something and say about it, it means that investments came there two years ago: if someone finds a free niche and starts investing there, then, as a rule, they do it quietly,” he comments. "For example, an explosion in the production of frozen potatoes is expected this year, but investments began much earlier." According to the expert, now the most interesting are the sectors that are above and below the raw material production, since it is still possible to seriously invest there. In particular, the expert predicts that there will be a new wave of investments in the construction and modernization of the grain-carrying network, in the storage and logistics of sugar beets and sugar, investments in seed production and agricultural machinery will continue.

Daria Snitko shares a similar opinion. According to her, it is necessary to improve technologies, apply the latest methods of agricultural technology, develop the production of plant protection products, localize the production of seeds, veterinary drugs and equipment in the country. “It seems to me that the fact that the Russian agro-industrial complex has fulfilled the primary goals of import substitution is in the air, but the dependence on imported means of production has not been eliminated,” she explains. "The state program is valid until 2020, and what is beyond the horizon of these years is rarely discussed."

The production of capital goods will remain the most interesting, but also the most difficult segment of the entire agro-industrial complex. Prices for them will rise, as well as needs, since not all companies have switched to modern technologies yet, but the market situation will force them to do this, Snitko is convinced. In her opinion, investments that in the past were focused on creating capacities for manufacturing products will now more and more be directed to improving technologies, equipment, as well as to related sectors - logistics infrastructure (transport operators, port facilities, storage), scientific infrastructure, as well as in the localization of seed production, technology, the creation of breeding and genetic centers.

Market participants also speak about the need for investments in modernization, technologies and increasing production efficiency. So, for example, the CEO “ Rusagro"Maxim Basov in December at the conference" Agroholdings of Russia "noted that crop production will continue to develop due to increased yields, and not areas, which, on the contrary, will begin to decline. “Years of very hard work await us, and there is no other way but to invest in technology, in people and, to a lesser extent, in construction,” the top manager emphasized.

Group " Prodo»In 2018 plans to continue the investment program, which covers all enterprises of the holding and will improve business efficiency. “By modernizing equipment, introducing new technologies using information systems, optimizing activities and increasing production volumes, we will increase the competitiveness of our products,” says Petr Ilyukhin. In January of this year, the company has already completed a three-year reconstruction project for the complex " Prodo Kaluzhskaya poultry farm "worth 5 billion rubles. (more on page 12). Also in 2018, the holding plans to complete the first stage of reconstruction of the Omsk Bacon pig breeding complex and start modernizing the poultry farms. Prodo Tyumen broiler "and" Prodo Poultry farm Permskaya ", adds the top manager. Now the Tyumen enterprise produces more than 32 thousand tons of finished products per year; by 2021, six new buildings for poultry feeding will be built, which will increase the capacity of the site by 20%. The entire technological chain will also be reconstructed, including the incubator and the slaughter-processing complex, which will make it possible to reach the figure of 50 thousand tons per year. Investments at the first stage will exceed 1.6 billion rubles, Ilyukhin specifies.

« AFG National»This year he intends to concentrate on the development and increase of the efficiency of his projects started in previous years, in particular, he will start organizing a new production site for growing potatoes in the Nizhny Novgorod region with an area of at least 1.2 thousand hectares. It will start operating in 2019 and will allow a 30% increase in potato production. “It is possible that new crops will appear in the crop rotation,” says Belov. - In addition, in the near future we want to increase the area of gardens to 2.5 thousand hectares. This will allow us to become one of the largest producers of marketable apples both in the Kuban and in Russia ”. This year the company plans to lay the third stage of orchards, as a result of which their total area will reach 700 hectares, and the harvest should double in comparison with last year. The first and second stages of the fruit storage with a capacity of 10 thousand tons will also be completed. According to Belov, the holding intends to systematically work to improve operational efficiency and increase yields in all sectors in which it operates.

A source: Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Ryazan Region

The agriculture of the Ryazan region in 2017 in actual prices ensured the production of goods in the amount of 57.2 billion rubles. In the rating of the regions of the Central Federal District, the Ryazan Region took 10th place according to this indicator, with a share in the total agricultural output of the Central Federal District at the level of 4.1%.

In 2017, the structure of agriculture in the Ryazan region was dominated by the crop growing industry, the share of products of which was 59.0%, the share of livestock products - 41.0%.

The main branches of agriculture in the Ryazan region are dairy farming, pig breeding, poultry farming, grain production, sugar beet, oilseeds and fodder production.

In crop production, the production of grain crops accounts for over 50% of the total production. The production of grain and leguminous crops amounted to more than 2 million tons. Ryazan Region took 7th place in the Central Federal District with a 6.5% share in production.

In animal husbandry, a significant role is played by dairy cattle breeding and beef cattle breeding. In 2017, the region took 4th place in terms of milk production and 6th place for beef production, 11th place for pork production in the Central Federal District.

Plant growing of the Ryazan region. Sown area.

The agriculture of the Ryazan region is distinguished by a relatively large area - in 2017, the entire sown area amounted to 911.3 thousand hectares (this is 5.8% of all sown areas in the Central Federal District). According to this indicator, the Ryazan region took 7th place among the subjects of the Central Federal District.

Crop production in the Ryazan region is largely based on the cultivation of grain crops. In the structure of the sown areas of the Ryazan region in 2017, winter and spring wheat accounted for 35.2% of the total area in the region, winter and spring barley - 16.9%, corn for grain - 2.4%, oats - 1, 8%, for winter and spring rye - 0.8%.

The share of leguminous crops accounted for 7.4% of all sown areas of the Ryazan region, sugar beet - 0.8%, winter and spring rape - 4.3%, sunflower - 5.3%, mustard - 0.6%, soybeans - 1 , 7%, camelina - 0.04%.

The share of areas under potatoes in the region accounted for 2.5% of all areas, open ground vegetables - 0.7% of all areas. Forage crops accounted for 18.3% of the total sown area in the region.

Crop production in the Ryazan region

Wheat production in the Ryazan region. The gross harvest of winter and spring wheat in the Ryazan region in 2017 amounted to 1291.0 thousand tons (this is 6.9% of the total wheat harvest in the Central Federal District). Wheat production in the region, in relation to 2016, increased by 32.1%. According to this indicator, the Ryazan region took 7th place among the regions of the Central Federal District. The sown area of this grain crop also increased by 5.9% and amounted to 320.8 thousand hectares (7.5% of the total wheat sown area in the Central Federal District). According to this indicator, the Ryazan region took 8th place among the regions of the Central Federal District.

Rye production in the Ryazan region. The collection of winter rye in the Ryazan region in 2017 increased by 37.0% and amounted to 19.5 thousand tons (7.1% of the total rye harvest in the Central Federal District, 4th place). The sown area of this grain crop also increased by 21.2% and amounted to 7.4 thousand hectares (7.9% of the area of rye in the Central Federal District). In terms of the area under crops of rye, the Ryazan region took the third place in the Central Federal District.

Barley production in the Ryazan region. In 2017, the gross harvest of spring barley in the Ryazan region increased by 59.6% to 471.3 thousand tons (7.6% of the barley harvest in the Central Federal District, 7th place). The sown area under this crop decreased by 6.6% to 153.9 thousand hectares (8.7% of the barley area in the Central Federal District, 7th place in the rating of regions).

Oat production in the Ryazan region. The gross harvest of oats in the Ryazan region in 2017 increased by 75.3% to 42.2 thousand tons (5.3% of the total oat production in the Central Federal District, 9th place). The sown area is at the level of last year - 16.4 thousand hectares (4.6% of the oats area in the Central Federal District, 10th place).

Gross harvest of agricultural crops, thousand tons

Crop name	2010	2011	2012y	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Winter and spring wheat	425,9	481,7	505,8	757,7	536,6	850,7	977,0	1291,0
Winter and spring rye	12,9	18,5	20,7	25,6	12,5	16,6	14,3	19,5
Winter and spring barley	178,7	339,3	401,9	341,2	639,5	468,8	295,4	741,3
Oats	24,4	43,8	51,7	30,8	57,7	45,5	24,1	42,2
Corn for grain	1,9	16,6	37,5	59,4	94,4	142,8	134,2	77,6
Buckwheat	0,2	1,5	2,6	1,3	1,8	1,4	1,9	4,8
Legumes	8,6	28,2	35,6	36,1	51,9	95,2	104,7	171,3
Peas	7,1	24,3	32,7	31,6	42,8	82,5	92,4	161,6
Sugar beet	212,8	648,7	556,7	249,8	238,0	274,5	339,5	352,7
Sunflower	4,5	26,7	39,7	45,0	39,1	39,3	55,5	56,7
Soy	0,2	0,2	0,2	6,0	18,6	16,3	19,3	18,2
Rape	3,7	17,7	32,5	39,1	55,7	57,7	41,6	58,9
Mustard	0,2	0,6	2,4	2,7	19,6	9,7	3,3	2,2
Potato	209,5	379,6	412,2	356,4	361,6	442,3	369,4	352,7
Vegetables	91,2	108,0	106,1	104,8	111,1	110,2	106,8	99,9

Production of corn for grain in the Ryazan region. In 2017, the gross harvest of corn for grain in the Ryazan region decreased by 42.2 %% and amounted to 77.6 thousand tons (1.7% of the total corn harvest in the Central Federal District, 8th place). The sown area under corn also decreased, compared to 2016, by 7.1% and amounted to 22.1 thousand hectares (2.3% of the area of corn for grain in the Central Federal District). According to this indicator, the Ryazan region took the 8th place among the regions of the Central Federal District.

Buckwheat production in the Ryazan region. Buckwheat harvest in the region in 2017 increased 2.5 times and amounted to 4.8 thousand tons (1.7% of buckwheat harvest in the Central Federal District, 10th place). The sown area of buckwheat also increased 3.3 times to 7.0 thousand hectares (2.2% of the buckwheat area in the Central Federal District, 9th place among the regions of the Central Federal District).

Production of leguminous crops in the Ryazan region. In 2017, the harvest of leguminous crops in the Ryazan region increased by 63.5% and amounted to 171.3 thousand tons (17.5% of the total production in the Central Federal District, 2nd place). Of this volume, 161.6 thousand tons fell on peas (20.8% of the total production in the Central Federal District, 2nd place).

By the size of the sown area of leguminous crops, the region took the 2nd place. In relation to 2016, the increase was 15.7%, the area - 67.1 thousand hectares (16.5% of the area of legumes in the Central Federal District). Including 56.7 thousand hectares were sown under peas (21.1% of the pea area in the Central Federal District, 1st place).

Sugar beet production in the Ryazan region. In 2017, the production of sugar beet in the Ryazan region increased by 3.9% and amounted to 352.7 thousand tons (1.2% of the sugar beet harvest in the Central Federal District, 8th place). The sown area increased by 8.4% to 7.7 thousand hectares (1.2% of all sugar beet areas in the Central Federal District, 8th place in the rating of the Central Federal District regions).

Sunflower seed production in the Ryazan region. The collection of sunflower seeds in the Ryazan region in 2017 amounted to 56.7 thousand tons, + 2.1% by 2016 (2.3% of the total collection in the Central Federal District, 7th place). The sown area increased by 41.5% to 48.2 thousand hectares (3.4% of the sunflower area in the Central Federal District, 7th place).

Soybean production in the Ryazan region. In 2017, the volume of soybean production in the Ryazan region decreased by 5.7% to 18.2 thousand tons (1.6% of the total harvest in the Central Federal District, 9th place). The sown area of soybeans also increased by 45.6% to 15.3 thousand hectares (2.0%, 9th place).

Rapeseed production in the Ryazan region. The collection of oilseeds of spring rapeseed in the Ryazan region in 2017 increased by 41.8% and amounted to 58.9 thousand tons (14.0% of the total collection of rapeseed seeds in the Central Federal District, 3rd place). The sown area decreased by 13% and amounted to 39.2 thousand hectares (15.4% of all sown areas in the Central Federal District, 3rd place).

Mustard seed production in the Ryazan region. In 2017, the collection of mustard seeds in the Ryazan region decreased by 33.4% to 2.2 thousand tons (12.1% of the total production in the Central Federal District, 4th place). The sown area of this crop also decreased 2.1 times to 5.7 thousand hectares (15.3% of the mustard area in the Central Federal District, 3rd place in the rating).

Potato production in the Ryazan region. In 2017, the production of potatoes in the Ryazan region decreased by 4.5% and amounted to 352.7 thousand tons (3.7% of the total potato harvest in the Central Federal District, 10th place). The sown area of potatoes decreased by 5.6% and amounted to 23.1 thousand hectares (4.2% of the area of potatoes in the Central Federal District). In terms of the size of the cultivated area of potatoes, the Ryazan region was in 10th place among the regions of the Central Federal District.

Vegetable production in the Ryazan region. The gross harvest of vegetables in open and protected soil in the Ryazan region in 2017 decreased by 6.4% and amounted to 99.9 thousand tons (3.3% of the total volume of vegetables produced in the Central Federal District, 12th place). Of this volume, 96.5 thousand tons are for open field vegetables and 3.4 thousand tons for protected ground vegetables. Over the past year (compared to the indicators of 2016), the production of open field vegetables decreased by 5.6%, the collection of greenhouse vegetables decreased by 24.0%. The sown area of vegetables in open ground also decreased by 2.7% to 6.3 thousand hectares (4.6%, 9th place).

In value terms, the volume of crop production in the Ryazan region in 2017 amounted to 33.7 billion rubles. or 4.8% of the total cost of crop production in the Central Federal District. According to this indicator, the Ryazan region took 10th place among the regions of the Central Federal District.

Livestock of the Ryazan region

In the agriculture of the Ryazan region, animal husbandry plays an important role. In 2016, according to preliminary data from Rosstat, the cost of livestock products amounted to 22.4 billion rubles. The share of this region in the total value of all livestock products produced in the Central Federal District amounted to 3.6%. This put the Ryazan region in 11th place in the rating of the regions of the Central Federal District.

Over the past few years, the following trends have been observed in animal husbandry in the Ryazan region:

an increase in the number of pigs and pork production;
a decrease in the size of herd of cattle, including cows, while there is an increase in milk production with a relatively stable production of beef;
the number of sheep and goats is decreasing every year, and the production of lamb and goat meat shows a positive trend;
a significant decline in poultry meat production; and an increasing production of eggs.

The structure of meat production by type in the Ryazan region in 2016 looked as follows. The total volume of production of all types of meat in live weight amounted to 70.0 thousand tons. Of this volume, pork accounted for 52.0%, beef - 36.43%, poultry meat - 7.71%, mutton and goat meat - 2.43%, other types of meat - 1.43%.

Pig breeding of the Ryazan region

Pig breeding in the Ryazan region has been developing positively for a number of years.

The number of pigs in the Ryazan region as of the end of 2016 in all categories of farms amounted to 169.7 thousand heads or 1.7% of the total pig herd in the Central Federal District (11th place in the rating of the Central Federal District regions). For 5 years (by 2011) it grew by 9.3%, by 2010 - by 19.5%.

Pork production in the Ryazan region in 2016 reached 36.4 thousand tons in live weight. The share of the Ryazan region in pork production in the Central Federal District was 1.8%. For 5 years, the volume of production of this type of meat increased by 46.2%, by 2010 - by 58.3%.

Pork production in 2016 was affected by the outbreak of African swine fever, which led to the destruction of livestock in the region's pig farms.

Cattle breeding of the Ryazan region

Cattle breeding of the Ryazan region in recent years has been characterized by relatively stable volumes of beef production and an increase in milk production.

The total number of cattle in the Ryazan region as of the end of 2016 amounted to 165.2 thousand heads (5th place) or 5.7% of the total number of cattle in the Central Federal District. Including, the number of cows totaled 66.2 thousand heads (5.7%, 5th place). Over 5 years, the size of the cattle herd has decreased by 7.0%, by 2010 - by 8.4%. The number of cows over 5 years decreased by 11.6%, by 2010 - by 12.8%.

Beef production in the Ryazan region in 2016 was at the level of 25.5 thousand tons in live weight. Over 5 years, beef production increased by 6.7%, but by 2010 it decreased by 9.3%. The region's share in the total beef production in the Central Federal District was 5.4% (7th place).

Milk production in the Ryazan region in farms of all categories in 2016 amounted to 381.1 thousand tons, or 7.0% of the total milk production in the Central Federal District (this is the 4th place in the ranking of Central Federal District regions - milk producers). There is a decrease in milk production in the region. For 5 years, the volumes increased by 4.1%, by 2010 - by 4.6%.

Poultry farming of the Ryazan region

The poultry industry of the Ryazan region, according to official data, in recent years is more and more reoriented to egg production - the volume of meat production is falling, egg production, on the contrary, tends to grow.

The production of poultry meat in the Ryazan region in 2016 amounted to 5.4 thousand tons in live weight. For 5 years, the production of this type of meat decreased by 77.9%, by 2010 - by 79.3%. The share of the Ryazan region in the total volume of poultry meat produced in the Central Federal District in 2016 was 0.2% (16th place in the rating of the Central Federal District regions - poultry meat producers).

The production of eggs in the Ryazan region in 2016 in farms of all categories amounted to 787.7 million pieces or 8.6% of the production volume in the Central Federal District (4th place among the regions of the Central Federal District). The region is experiencing an increase in the production of poultry eggs. For 5 years, the volumes increased by 14.4%, by 2010 - by 21.3%.

Sheep and goat breeding of the Ryazan region

The number of sheep and goats in the Ryazan region as of the end of 2016 amounted to 57.8 thousand heads or 5.1% of the total number of sheep and goats in the Central Federal District (9th place in the rating of regions). The size of the sheep and goat herds in the region has been declining in recent years. For 5 years it decreased by 2.2%, but by 2010 it grew by 3.8%.

The production of lamb and goat meat in the Ryazan region in 2016 amounted to 1.7 thousand tons in live weight. Over the past 5 years, it has grown by 41.7%, by 2010 - by 54.5%. In the total volume of lamb and goat meat production in the Central Federal District, the share of the Ryazan region was at the level of 5.0% (7th place in the rating of regions producing this type of meat).

The results of the agriculture of the Ryazan region in 2017.

Agricultural enterprises of the region received a profit in the amount of 2.6 billion rubles. The profitability level was 9.4%. The share of profitable agricultural enterprises is 81.8% (-1.4 pp to the level of 2016). The average monthly wage in agriculture for the full range of organizations amounted to 23,904 rubles and increased by 9.5% by 2016.

MOSCOW, Dec 23 - RIA Novosti. The outgoing year for agriculture can be called anything but simple. The difficulties were different: both within the country and during export; they were associated with both the weather and the human factor.

Nevertheless, either due to these difficulties, or in spite of, the domestic agro-industrial complex in 2017 set a variety of new records, providing more than one reason for the pride of the Russian authorities.

But if 2017 was such a busy year, what can you expect from next year? Will it be as challenging? It's hard to say. Who, for example, in December last year could have guessed that such uncomfortable weather this spring could lead to such an outstanding harvest of 130 million tons of grain?

On the other hand, the tasks that will need to be addressed in 2018 are already visible - these are the development of the logistics infrastructure and support for domestic demand.

Let's catch up and overtake America

The main agrarian event of 2017 for Russia is undoubtedly new records of grain export and harvest. The first record was set at the end of June: according to the results of the 2016-2017 agricultural year (from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017), grain exports from Russia amounted to 35.474 million tons, which is 4.7% more than in the previous season.

Wheat supplies abroad last season increased by 10% - up to 27.075 million tons. These indicators updated the achievements of the previous agricultural year: then the country exported 33.9 million tons of grain, including 25 million tons of wheat.

And although Russia lost the first place in the world in wheat supplies last season (the United States exported about 29 million tons), both the Russian authorities, analysts, and even the United States Department of Agriculture expect Russia to return to the title of leader this agricultural year.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation expects that grain exports from the Russian Federation in the current agricultural year will amount to 45 million tons, and wheat supplies may reach 40 million tons. According to the Federal Customs Service (FCS) of the Russian Federation, as of December 13, grain exports from the Russian Federation increased by 34% compared to the previous season - up to 24.5 million tons. Wheat was exported 33.2% more - 19.074 million tons.

By the way, one should not forget about the outstanding results shown by the export of Russian sunflower oil. Although Russia is in second place after Ukraine in this indicator (at the end of the 2016-2017 season, more than 2.2 million tons of sunflower oil were shipped), the achievement of this level, coupled with the expansion of sales markets, can be considered a success of the Russian agro-industrial complex.

"Tomato Wars"

The outgoing year was also remembered for another event related to export, which was quite extended in time. The supply of Russian grain, and other products as well, could suffer from the restrictions that Turkey either introduced or canceled during the year - and this country is one of the main importers of domestic agricultural products in general and grain in particular.

Russia has imposed an embargo on the supply of a number of products from Turkey since January 1, 2016 in response to an attack by the Turkish Air Force on a Russian Su-24 in Syria at the end of November 2015. In addition, the Rosselkhoznadzor in 2016 banned the supply of Turkish tomatoes, peppers, pomegranates, eggplants, lettuce and iceberg lettuce, zucchini and pumpkins to the Russian Federation.

Since the fall of last year, the restrictions have been gradually lifted. As a result, since the beginning of June 2017, Russia has retained only the ban on the import of tomatoes, as well as the restrictions of the Rosselkhoznadzor. In parallel, negotiations were underway to open the Russian market for Turkish tomatoes - and the domestic market is very important for Turkish producers.

And while the countries were negotiating to lift all trade restrictions, the Turkish authorities took measures that - directly or indirectly - pushed Russia to lift their bans. For example, since March 15, Turkey has changed the procedure for the import of certain types of agricultural products for processing within the country, including wheat and sunflower oil.

At the same time, Russia was not included in the list of countries eligible for duty-free supplies. Later, Turkey announced the abolition of these restrictions, but at the end of May, several Russian and Turkish agricultural associations reported that Ankara had introduced new barriers to trade. goods.

Since October 9, Turkey has introduced new restrictions on the supply of agricultural products from the Russian Federation: it becomes mandatory to certify invoices submitted to customs services for the import of wheat, sunflower oil, corn and a number of other goods, the country of origin of which is Russia.

Ultimately, Russia partially lifted the ban on the import of Turkish tomatoes - by the end of 2017, Turkey can supply no more than 50 thousand tons of tomatoes to the Russian Federation. However, there has not yet been any evidence of the lifting of Turkey's October restrictions. And all these events were unofficially referred to as the "tomato war".

The Taming of the Shrew

About the history of another record - grain harvest - we can say unequivocally: "This thing is stronger than Goethe's Faust." And the point here is not only the significance of the very fact of achieving the highest harvest in the entire history of Russia, but also in how exactly this peak was conquered. And the ascent was not easy.

The 2016 harvest amounted to 120.7 million tons of grain - the highest figure in recent Russian history. The first official forecasts of the Ministry of Agriculture for the harvest of the current year - they usually appear in April, when it becomes clear how the winter crops survived the winter - were quite accurate: more than 100 million tons, more than 110 million.

However, the weather made its own adjustments: April and May this year were very cold, in the regions, even in these months, sleet was observed. And the usual rain was a frequent visitor in the fields. Already in May, the Agrarian Ministry stated: the rate of sowing of spring crops in 2017 lags behind last year.

This posed a threat to the harvest. In early June, the Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev admitted: due to bad weather conditions and a protracted spring, this year's grain harvest will exceed 100 million tons, but will not exceed 110 million.

But, as they say, if it has disappeared somewhere, it has arrived somewhere. The winter crops survived the past winter quite well, and the prolonged rains filled the earth with moisture.

In July, Petr Chekmarev, the head of the crop production department of the Ministry of Agriculture, speaking at the Field Day in Kazan (ironically, to the accompaniment of a powerful rain) recalled 1978: there was heavy harvesting, heavy rains, but then Russia (as part of the USSR) reaped a record crop - 127 , 4 million tons. A good harvest, according to Chekmarev, could be seen this year, if the weather smiled at the farmers in August-September. His words were prophetic. The weather in autumn was really good, and with the course of the autumn work it became clear: there will be a new record.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 18, the country harvested 140.4 million tons of grain in bunker weight, and the harvest in net weight, according to Rosstat, in 2017 amounted to 134.1 million tons. This is 11% more than last year and 5.3% more than the historic record in 1978.

That the coming year?

The answer to this question from the perspective of December 2017: nothing seems to be wrong.

Agricultural production in Russia is growing and there is no reason for it to decline sharply. Financing of the agro-industrial complex from the budget next year will remain at the level of the outgoing year - it will amount to 241.986 billion rubles. If the export of grain does not fail, then at least one record is guaranteed for the country.

So far, the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation assumes a harvest in 2018 at the level of 110.6 million tons of grain - not a small figure at all. On the other hand, collecting high harvests for several years in a row, Russia may face a decline in world grain prices, which, in turn, can cause a reduction in the profitability of domestic farmers.

"In a situation of a sharp increase in production, indeed, there is often a decrease in prices on the world market. But Russian products are competitive, therefore, in the long term, the share of Russian exporters will grow," said Daria Snitko, head of the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting.

In turn, Elena Razumova, an expert at the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, pointed out that at the end of 2017, it became obvious that the logistics infrastructure was not ready for ultra-high yields, both in terms of transportation and storage of grain.

In addition, industry participants have been saying for several years that the dependence on imported capital goods in Russian agriculture raises concerns.

"Many agricultural producers do not use domestic seeds, and some are significantly dependent on imported seed material, in particular beet growers. Solving the problem of localizing production of means of production - seeds, machinery, veterinary preparations and much more - will be relevant in the coming years," Snitko said.

In turn, Razumova from the Analytical Center admitted that a decrease in profitability in key sectors of the agro-industrial complex - these are grain, oilseeds and sugar segments - could become a problem. "To support it, the state will have to actively stimulate investments," she said.