The procedure for developing an innovative project

The development of an innovative project is a specially organized R&D of a predictive-analytical and technical-economic nature, associated with setting the goal of developing a project, developing its concept, planning a project and processing its design and estimate documentation.

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Project concept development

The concept of an innovative project should determine the options for its implementation, form the main goals and expected final results, evaluate the competitiveness and prospects of the project results, as well as the possible effectiveness of the innovative project. In the process of developing the concept of an innovative project, the following stages can be distinguished (Fig. 3): the formation of an innovative idea and setting the goal of the project, marketing research of the project idea, project structuring, analysis of risk and uncertainty, choice of project implementation option.

Formation of an innovative idea and setting the goal of the project. The emergence of an innovative idea is the starting point from which the development of an innovative project begins. The formation of an innovative idea is considered from two positions. On the one hand, an innovative idea forms the basis, the essence of an innovative project, which is reflected in the setting of the general (ultimate) goal of the project (the idea of ​​creating a new product or service, the idea of ​​organizational changes in the industry, region, operating enterprise, etc.). On the other hand, the formation of an innovative idea (concept) is understood as a conceived plan of action, i.e., ways or ways to achieve the goal of the project. Already at this stage, alternative solutions to the problem are identified. An idea may arise spontaneously or be the result of a long process, it may be the result of collective expertise or individual analysis.

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The methods for generating and forming innovative ideas include well-known methods of expert assessments, such as methods for identifying opinions (interview method; questionnaire method - sample surveys; script writing, etc.) and creative methods ("brainstorming"; morphological analysis ; Delphi method, etc.).

Marketing research project idea. In parallel with the formation of an innovative project idea, its marketing research is carried out.

The purpose of this stage is to determine the sphere of influence of the project on the development of the national economy and, as a result, to quantify the goals of the project and tasks for individual periods. The ultimate goals and objectives of an innovative project cannot always be set in the form of specific quantitative indicators at the stage of selecting and substantiating a problem (innovative idea). Therefore, the development of the project itself should begin with a quantitative specification of the ultimate goal of the project and the establishment of intermediate tasks for its implementation for separate time periods for various implementation options.

To this end:

* possible consumers of the target product of the project are established;

* the possibilities and economic feasibility of replacing manufactured products with new types of target products are analyzed;

* the structure of industries that provide the project with raw materials, energy resources, components, etc. is being studied;

* analyzes new areas of use of the final product of the project;

* the economic and social consequences of the project implementation are being studied.

At the stage of marketing research, general methods of marketing innovations should be used. The results of marketing research are expressed in specific quantitative values ​​of the target parameters of the project.

Structuring an innovative project. The target parameters of the project established at the previous stages are the basis for the formation of a list of project activities to achieve the ultimate goal of the project. To determine the composition of the necessary measures, the final goals are preliminarily structured, that is, they are divided into constituent elements. Practice has shown that in the structuring of the project it is necessary to distinguish between two varieties: functional and problematic.

Functional structuring of the project. When structuring an innovative project, the composition of functional elements is first established, which is a condition for its complete and comprehensive solution.

The tool for such a functional structuring of the problem in the development of the project is the "tree of goals". The latter is a hierarchical system that has a number of levels, on which successively detailed goals are located that require implementation (see Fig. 4). At the same time, the goals of each subsequent level should ensure the implementation of the goals of the higher level.

For each of the established elements, including alternative ones, a limited list of the most important target indicators is determined, characterizing their scientific and technical level and revealing the content of the target indicators of elements of a higher level. On the basis of particular forecasts for the development of each element and taking into account the prevailing proportions, unit costs and norms of costs, possible values ​​of target indicators are calculated for individual periods of project implementation.

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When determining the values ​​of target indicators, one should proceed from the need to ensure the target parameters of the corresponding element of the higher level. Calculation of the target parameters for the elements of the "target tree" is carried out by sequential disaggregation from the highest level to the bottom.

In addition to target indicators, for each of the elements of the "goal tree" it is recommended to set limiting parameters that define special conditions for achieving goals. The composition of such parameters and their values ​​are selected and justified by experts based on the specifics of the project itself. Limiting parameters establish those requirements that must be met during the implementation of the project. Thus, the establishment of the composition of the limiting parameters of the project and their qualitative values ​​can be considered as the first and most enlarged stage of the feasibility study of the project implementation option.

Problem structuring of the project. The constructed "tree of goals" is then reformulated into a problematic system of tasks and activities, which also has a hierarchical structure and is called the "work tree". If the "tree of goals" establishes the necessary means to achieve the goals of the project, then the set of activities ("tree of work") should determine the ways and means of obtaining these funds. When forming events, the compositional principle of sequential aggregation of works of a lower level into topics, tasks, and problems of a higher level should be used (see Fig. 5).

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The development of a list of necessary activities is carried out in the following sequence:

* the possibility and expediency of ensuring the target parameters by expanding the production of traditional equipment is being studied;

* measures are formulated for the development in production of the results of previously completed R&D;

* if the scientific background is insufficient, the possibility is being studied and measures are being planned to use the experience of foreign countries on the basis of acquiring licenses, equipment or documentation;

* Proposals are being developed in the direction and specific topics of research.

The set of works established by the elements of the lower level of the "tree of goals" is combined at the subsequent stages of the project development into topics, tasks and stages associated with the creation of the corresponding elements of the highest level. The “work tree” obtained in this way is one of the possible options for implementing the project.

The result of the project structuring is a list of activities (composition of tasks, topics and works), the implementation of which is necessary to ensure the achievement of the project's target values ​​for each of its implementation options within the established time frame.

Risk and uncertainty analysis. One of the most significant features of innovative projects is that projects are carried out under conditions of risk and uncertainty. These factors must be taken into account in efficiency calculations if, under different possible implementation conditions, the costs and results of the project are different. The result of risk analysis in the development of an innovative project is expressed in determining the likelihood of implementing alternative options.

Choice of an implementation option for an innovative project. The choice of the most viable innovative project from alternative options is one of the most responsible project development procedures. The main tasks of this stage are the following:

* establishing the main criteria (indicators) for the effectiveness of an innovative project;

* calculation of performance indicators of alternative project options, taking into account the likelihood of their implementation;

* comparison and selection of an innovative project option for implementation. To assess the effectiveness of innovative projects, a system of indicators is used, established by the Guidelines for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects and their selection for financing.

To take into account the uncertainty of the conditions for the implementation of the project option, indicators of the expected integral effect are calculated (economic - at the level of the national economy, commercial - at the level of individual entrepreneurs).

If the probabilities of various project implementation conditions are known exactly, the expected integral effect is calculated using the mathematical expectation formula

where Eozh is the expected integral effect of the project; Ei -- integral

effect under the i-th implementation condition; Pi is the probability of this project being implemented.

where Emax and Emin are the largest and smallest of the mathematical expectations of the integral effect on admissible probability distributions; h is a special standard for taking into account the uncertainty of the effect, it is recommended to take it at the level of 0.3 [e. R. 3].

Comparison of various project options and selection of the best of them is recommended using the following methods: net present value (NPV) or expected integral effect; yield index (ID); internal rate of return (IRR); payback period; calculation of the break-even point and others, reflecting the interests of the participants or the specifics of the project. These performance indicators are discussed in Chap. I. To apply each of them, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of what issue of the economic evaluation of an innovative project is solved with its use and how a solution is chosen.

The development of the concept of an innovative project covers research and all stages of the feasibility study of an innovative project (from defining a goal to choosing the most effective option for achieving it).