Regional strategic planning in a crisis. Successful strategies in a crisis. Designing a strategic development program in a crisis

PROBLEMS OF PLANNING IN ENTERPRISES IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE MARKET ECONOMY CRISIS

Viktor Artemyevich Zhuravlev

Siberian State Geodetic Academy, 630108, Novosibirsk, st. Plakhotny, 10, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics of Land Management and Real Estate, tel. 8 913 892 85 10, e-mail: [email protected]

The article deals with the problems of making planning decisions at enterprises in the conditions of the crisis of the market economy in Russia.

Key words: business, current and strategic planning, crisis,

financial success, enterprise, consumer, products.

PROBLEMS OF CORPORATE PLANNING UNDER MARKET ECONOMICS CRYSIS CONDITIONS

Victor A. Zhuravlyov

Assoc. Prof., Department of Land Management and Real Property, Siberian State Academy of Geodesy, 10 Plakhotnogo St., 630108 Novosibirsk, phone: 8 913 892 85 10, email: [email protected]

The problems of corporate planning decision-making under the market economics crisis conditions in Russia are considered.

Key words: business, current and strategic planning, crisis, financial success, enterprise, consumer, production.

In market conditions, each enterprise (firm, corporation, company, plant, factory) is an open production and technical system associated with certain relationships with the external environment.

In market conditions, an enterprise must timely determine the upcoming scientific, technical, organizational, economic, socio-political and other types of external environmental impact (both negative and positive) and make appropriate planning decisions. This significantly changes the attitude to the enterprise management system, since organizational management schemes must take into account not only the nature of strategies, the type of structures, planning and control procedures, but the responsiveness of the management's response and the readiness of the enterprise personnel to adequately respond to environmental changes, rather than ensure guaranteed financial well-being of the object of management.

Enterprises as open systems can be simple (small firms), complex (medium-sized companies), and super-complex (large integrated corporations). Each enterprise has certain capabilities, therefore, its management system must ensure the most efficient use of available resources (basic, circulating, labor), as well as

create conditions and prerequisites for the consistent growth of the enterprise's potential.

Thus, for successful operation, each enterprise must simultaneously perform two main functions:

Ensure the solvency of the company through effective current activities;

To increase the potential of the enterprise by updating the technology, production facilities, products (services), that is, to develop the enterprise, than to ensure the compliance of the internal environment with the tasks facing it.

For the simultaneous performance of these functions, it is necessary to maintain a balance of compliance of the allocated resources with the operational (current) and strategic objectives of the enterprise.

Excessive activation of enterprise development (a large range of updated products, frequent changes in technology, radical innovations, etc.) requires large investment costs, and current activities from the sale of products are not able to provide the necessary solvency in the short term.

As a result, debt obligations grow (both short-term and long-term), reasonable proportions between equity (capital) and debt obligations are violated, and the enterprise finds itself in a crisis situation (possible bankruptcy).

Otherwise, when only current activities are provided and no attention is paid to development, the enterprise can function successfully in the short term, but it can lose competitiveness in the long term, as sales volumes and market share decrease, and its financial stability sharply decreases, and it moves towards bankruptcy.

Thus, for the successful fulfillment of the functions of current activities and the development of an enterprise, it is necessary to carry out effective planning of all types of its activities.

Enterprise planning is a tool for designing the desired future and effective ways to achieve it.

When forming a system of intrafirm planning, it is necessary to take into account that in market conditions all economic entities develop cyclically, that is, at certain periods the enterprise may experience a recession, or depression, or recovery or steady growth.

The cyclical nature of the state is due not only to the action of the crisis in the external environment, but also to internal factors.

Each recession has a negative impact on the economy not only of enterprises, regions, countries, but also on the life of society.

During a crisis situation, which arises due to the violation of the existing balance of supply and demand for products in the market, which in turn leads to stagnation in the development of enterprises, increases unemployment and worsens the previously achieved standard of living of society.

At the same time, the crisis situation is a catalyst for the revitalization of activities in all directions, in order to get out of the crisis and ensure subsequent growth, it is necessary to take into account the cyclical development of the economy.

To take into account cyclicality in the planning process, it is necessary to have an idea of ​​the factors affecting the cyclicality of development. To learn how to manage an enterprise in a cyclical development, it is necessary to take into account not only the peculiarities of the growth and fall curves in these crisis cycles, but also to know the factors (external and internal) that affect the ability to manage the enterprise.

External factors include:

The state of the market and the position of the management object (enterprise) on it;

The general state of the economy of the country, region, industry to which the enterprise belongs;

The level of effective consumer demand;

Supplier position;

Inflation rate;

The value of interest rates for a bank loan.

The dynamics of changes in these factors can strongly influence the economy of the enterprise, and the enterprise itself is not able to influence them.

Business leaders must monitor such changes and adjust their activities to reflect changes in external factors.

Internal factors affecting the economic development of the enterprise include:

Personnel potential;

Condition of fixed assets (equipment, etc.);

Working capital;

The amount of debt (short-term and long-term);

The level of utilization of production facilities;

The progressiveness of the technologies used;

The level of conformity in the adequacy of the development of production infrastructure to current tasks;

The operational ability of production to update products.

The management of the enterprise can manage internal factors, and therefore they need to be developed taking into account the cyclical development of the external environment.

At each enterprise there are fluctuations in its financial condition, depending on the management decisions made due to changes in the situation in the external environment. These fluctuations also occur in the event of an imbalance between current and strategic activities.

So in the process of mastering new products and progressive technologies at the enterprise, a transitional period takes place when the inevitable

a decline in the economic performance of the enterprise, and then, when the enterprise adapts to innovations, the period of mastering innovations and personnel training ends, and the economic condition of the enterprise improves, since it is already at a qualitatively new level of adequate compliance with the external environment.

All innovations orient the company towards a product policy that meets the needs of the consumer of products and adaptation to a changing external environment. The art of leadership in making planning decisions is determined by the understanding of this correspondence.

Since each stage of development of an enterprise requires investment, it is necessary that in the process of current activities resources for further development are accumulated, that is, the economic and financial potential is increased, and it is used to develop the competitive advantages of products.

Thus, in the planning process, it is necessary to take into account not only the current activities and the potential for growth of the enterprise's potential, but also to take into account the cyclicality due to the economic, technological, product, organizational stages of the enterprise's development.

Intercompany planning is an organic element of the management system and affects all aspects of the enterprise.

Since planning is a process of designing the desired future and effective ways to achieve it, the end result of such a process is to strengthen the competitiveness of products for the confident subsequent purposeful activity of the enterprise in the market.

Planned decisions are interconnected with a set of organizational and technical, economic, financial and social decisions and take into account the necessary conditions for the development of the enterprise at the present time and in the foreseeable future.

Like any process, planning is carried out continuously through iterations that bring the planned solution closer to the real new capabilities of the enterprise. Thus, the planning process is aimed at determining the conditions under which it is possible to achieve the desired state of the planning object, determined by the strategy and tactics of enterprise development.

The disadvantage of the existing planning practice in the formation of the budget is the predominant attention to current tasks. As a result, the company's promising activities remain without proper attention and funding. To avoid such a situation, in the planning process, it is necessary to ensure a balance between the strategic and current orientation in the activities of the enterprise.

To solve this problem, planning is divided into a dual system with two independent action plans (strategic and current) and dual funding (separate budgets - current and strategic).

The objectives of the current budget are:

Ensuring continuous profit from the use of existing facilities of the enterprise;

Current investment of resources in increasing capacity;

Cost reduction costs.

The strategic development budget is characterized by:

Investments in the development of product policy and increasing the competitiveness of products;

Expansion of the sales market;

Investment in diversification of production.

The need to develop a strategy and tactics for the development of an enterprise determines the use of strategic and tactical (current) planning for their implementation.

The entire set of plans is present in the activities of the enterprise, however, the formation of each of them has its own characteristics in terms of the level of detail, the degree of aggregation (consolidation) of information, the set of indicators used, targets and other differences.

From the point of view of responsibility for the formation and implementation of plans, each level in the management hierarchy has its own type of planning.

Thus, the highest level of management (top management) is responsible for the mission of the enterprise, development strategy, strategic goals and strategic planning. In this regard, the management structure should be structured in such a way as to separate the general management as much as possible from the solution of current tasks.

The middle level of management carries out functional management and is responsible for tactical - current planning, although it participates in the formation of strategic plans.

An enterprise operating in a market economy is exposed to the effects of the external environment, in which rapid changes are taking place, caused by various factors - changes in market conditions, saturation of sales markets, the emergence of new goods (services).

The ongoing changes increase the degree of uncertainty in making operational planning decisions, and, consequently, increases the economic risk in achieving the planned results.

In these conditions, the enterprise needs to have guidelines for moving forward, that is, to have a current development strategy. The absence of a strategy leads to the fact that each structural unit of the enterprise begins to look for its own ways out of the current situation, which are not coordinated with the general strategy of the enterprise.

In this situation, the role of the marketing service sharply increases, which should:

To intensify the promotion of goods and revive the demand for products;

Provide information to the management about the problems of consumers of products and the actions of competitors;

Indicate directions for strengthening efforts for the benefit of consumers.

The presence of a strategy allows for more targeted and interrelated strategic planning, which reduces material and financial losses in achieving strategic goals.

In planning the activities of enterprises, various approaches are used, the main of which are:

Matrix planning of production costs based on input-output matrices (Leontiev's model) and standardized unit costs of resources;

Optimal planning, which includes an objective function, a set of constraints in the forming planning decision according to the degree of satisfaction of a given criterion (profit, etc.);

Adaptive planning that takes into account the dynamics of enterprise resources and the consistency of enterprise goals when choosing planning decisions.

The planning process consists of:

Assessment of the real capabilities or potential of the enterprise at the time of making a decision;

Determination of the necessary conditions for achieving the set goals in a given period of time;

Making a planned decision, which includes a set of measures to ensure the achievement of the set goals with the effective use of the potential of the enterprise.

The size of enterprises, the scale of production, the range of products (services), the complexity of products, the intensity of renewal of production of products (services) impose their own limitations and determine the specifics of planning.

In a small enterprise, almost all management functions, including planning, are carried out by the entrepreneur (owner) due to a lack of financial resources.

Depending on the type of business, the production program may include:

Wholesale trade - procurement plan;

Service sector - the volume of ordered services;

In the tourist business - the volume of sales of vouchers;

In the scientific and technical business - the volume of orders for R&D (development);

In consulting firms, the volume of orders for consulting services.

Common to all types of business is the planning of the volume of trade. On the basis of these planning documents, the working capital and fixed assets necessary for the implementation of the production program are calculated, a system of wages and labor motivation is formed.

Planning in small firms is carried out in conditions of significant financial and credit constraints, therefore development plans depend on the financial and credit capabilities of the firm.

Increasing the financial potential of the company will be facilitated by planning costs and working capital, since saving all types of resources and efficient use of the existing potential of the company are sources of economic growth of the company and the basis for moving into a medium-sized business.

Medium business (up to 500 people) has a large turnover, and losses from incorrect planning decisions are becoming more tangible. In this regard, the level of analytical work on planning financial and economic, marketing, production and personnel activities objectively increases in relation to small businesses.

The marketing plan becomes the basis for planning other types of activities, i.e., only after determining:

Market capacity;

Possible distribution channels;

By calculating the expected sales volumes for each type of product, taking into account the competition, you can develop the rest of the plans.

It should also be borne in mind that with an increase in turnover, the degree of uncertainty in achieving the final results increases due to higher competition, and therefore the level of economic risk increases, which must be taken into account in the planning process.

In a medium-sized business, the main one is an entrepreneur (general director) and he already delegates the implementation of certain management functions and the definition of areas of activity to the appropriate managers:

Marketing;

Financial and Economic Management;

By production;

Personnel management, etc.

For the work, professionals are attracted who are proficient in modern technology of management, decision-making and business. However, the functional management groups themselves are small in size.

Strategically, the problems of growth of assets and authorized capital become urgent as the basis for increasing collateral guarantees and, accordingly, expanding the possibilities of attracting investments for

development of the company. Aspirations are developing to increase market share, take over firms, and develop a network of dealers.

Thus, in a medium-sized business, almost all procedures and mechanisms of professional in-house planning become necessary.

In large business, based on the concentration of capital and the integration of structures, internal planning is the most important element of company management.

Large companies have both advantages and disadvantages.

The benefits include:

Large production facilities;

High technical equipment;

A large range of products;

Relatively low unit costs;

The possibility of obtaining superprofits;

Financial sustainability;

Great opportunities for the production of competitive products;

Unity of scientific and production processes;

Greater social protection of personnel.

The disadvantages include:

Organizational inertia of structures;

Complex communication links;

A large number of management personnel;

Poor fitness and reaction to a fundamentally new

Products (conservatism in innovations);

The complexity and duration of management decisions.

In large companies, planning difficulties are caused by:

Diversity of products;

The dynamics of product renewal, which leads to an increase in the degree of uncertainty in the management of production systems;

The need to take into account the impact of economic risk.

Large complexes should plan:

The company's goals are both strategic and tactical;

Development of the company's potential;

Range and volumes of products;

Summary planning.

Large complexes are more susceptible to intra-firm economic fluctuations due to the impact of innovation cycles, technological and organizational development cycles. Due to this

the planning system should take into account not only specific cycles, but also the interrelationships between them and their impact on the planned results.

Financial planning as a resultant component of the system of plans presents certain difficulties due to the need to take into account the impact of all areas of planned activities on financial results. A special place in the financial activities of the complexes belongs to the planning of cash receipts and payments, the formation of sources of investment in the development of the company.

Considering the large number of employees in integrated companies (tens and hundreds of thousands of employees), the most important direction of planned work is social planning, which provides for the growth of opportunities for social protection of employees and the creation of favorable social and psychological conditions for activity.

Small, medium and large enterprises, as well as various forms of enterprise integration, require a planning mechanism corresponding to their status, while observing general management principles and management requirements.

Taking into account the current crisis state of the market for making planning decisions in the product policy of enterprises, the following general recommendations can be formulated:

1. Do not elaborate on the strategy, but form the general directions with a focus on the customer.

2. Strategic events take place not only on the basis of sound information, but also on the basis of a case (crisis).

3. The way to effective planning in an unstable environment is the presence of strategic goals and flexible management of deviations.

4. Do not make a large-scale decision that can put the organization on the brink of bankruptcy, look for a way out of this situation, and in this case it is necessary to take measures to reduce the risk of bankruptcy.

5. Realize that any planning decision is inevitably probabilistic. The likelihood of error remains regardless of how carefully the decision is reasoned.

6. It must be remembered that the implementation of decisions depends on the person and the human factor always takes place, and his intervention can lead to unforeseen consequences, often opposite to our expectations.

7. Supplement the planning decision making process with a conscious search for opportunities in any situation. Look for answers to the questions: what is not good? what doesn't make sense? why? what to use?

8. Information is the main strategic advantage. Do not spare funds for creating an information base and for research (scientific and technical, financial and economic, marketing, etc.).

9. When making planning decisions, respect the interests of all participants in the implementation of these decisions. This will help reduce the difficulty of implementing decisions and avoid conflict situations. Know how to lead

negotiation. It is a means of resolving conflicts and finding areas of coincidence of interest with partners.

10. Make friends with costing sheets, balance sheets, budget. This will allow you to become an active participant in improving the financial stability of the enterprise.

11. Learn from competitors, not just defend against them. Use the market reaction to competitive moves as one of the most reliable ways to study the market.

12. Remember that big problems are best solved by breaking them down into smaller ones. Large-scale problems seem indestructible, while incremental steps are feasible and fruitful.

13. Prioritize problems and goals.

14. Stay in control of what matters most - the results. Determine the boundaries of the solution space and the range of possible changes in the planned indicators.

15. Maintain the achieved capabilities of infrastructure units and in crisis situations provide them with the opportunity to work for the external environment. The task of matching the actual need for services to the units engaged in the main activity can be solved not only by reducing personnel.

Original Russian Text © V.A. Zhuravlev, 2012

Strategic planning n n n This is the process of developing and maintaining a balance between the goals and capabilities of an organization in a changing market environment. Aimed at adapting the organization's activities to the constantly changing environmental conditions and at deriving benefits from new opportunities. The purpose of strategic planning is to determine the most promising areas of the organization's activities, ensuring its growth and prosperity.

Strategic management n n Strategic planning - taking into account and combining goals, external and internal factors Mission - purpose, social role in society Goal - the desired result of the action Vision - the state of the organization that can be achieved in the future

Strategic and long-term planning Differences n n Strategic planning Long-term planning is based on the assumption that it is impossible to predict long-term with a sufficient degree of accuracy, based on the assumption that current trends in the development of the business environment can be extrapolated to the future. trends n n Planned from the vision, what we want Planned from the current situation, what we can Tool for forming long-term competitive Tool for budgeting advantages.

Historical aspect n n n 50th Long-term planning - from the inside 60th Strategic planning - outside the 70th Strategic management = planning + changes 80th Strategic entrepreneurship - vision 90th Strategic maps - scorecards

Features n From the future to the present n From external to internal environment n Implementation in the process of creating a strategy n Creativity n Participation of all levels of the organization

STEPS IN DEVELOPING A STRATEGIC PLAN n 1. Mission of the organization What is our mission? What is it created for? n 2. Strengths and Weaknesses What are our internal strengths and weaknesses? n n n 3. Assessment of the external environment. Analyzing Opportunities and Threats What opportunities and threats are most important to us and why?

STEPS IN DEVELOPING A STRATEGIC PLAN n 4. Shaping the image of the future n How would we like to see the organization in the future? n 5. Determination of goals and objectives of the organization's activities 4 groups of goals Financial, marketing, business processes, personnel n n n 6. Analysis of obstacles and reasons What prevents us from moving towards the desired future and how to overcome these obstacles? 7. Formulating strategies What directions should we take today to overcome these obstacles? Analysis of strategic alternatives. Choosing a strategy. 8. Drawing up a strategic plan

Balanced Scorecard 1992 Robert Kaplan and David Norton n Financial goals (goals, objectives, indicators, incentives in the eyes of the owners) n Marketing goals (relationship with the consumer, image, mission implementation) n Business processes (which business operations the company should improve first queue) n Personnel. Training and development (how a company should develop its ability to adapt to changing circumstances)

Indicators n Financial (profitability, growth rates, equity capital) n Marketing (time, quality, service level, price / costs) n Business processes (timely delivery, low rejects, attention to consumer needs, cost reduction) n Personnel (increase qualifications, retention of professionals, adaptation of newcomers, service training)

IBM The utmost attention to every employee Take the time to make the customer happy Follow up any business

Motorola n n n Service Honestly Service of the highest quality at affordable prices Continuous self-renewal Integrity, ethics Respect for the dignity of each employee Improving customer satisfaction

Boeing n n n Be at the forefront, be a pioneer Respond to global challenges and take risks Safety and quality of goods Business integrity and ethics "Eat, breathe, sleep with aviation!"

Walt Disney n n n No cynicism Fanatical attention to sequence and detail Continuous progress through creativity, imagination and fantasy Fanatically respect and protect the magical image of Disney Bring joy to millions

Risk assessment High likelihood and low impact - contingency plan High likelihood and strong impact - prevent early Low probability and low impact - do nothing Low probability and strong impact - constant monitoring, contingency plan

When creating a planning system in an enterprise, it is necessary to establish the principles that such a system should meet.

The principle of timeliness. This means that the organizational structure of the planning system and the implementation of the plan formation procedure should ensure the adoption of planning decisions by a given date, since otherwise the activity of structural units for the implementation of the plan is suspended (slowed down) and, therefore, the degree of uncertainty in the timely receipt of the final result increases.

For example, in order to comply with this principle at the highest level of management, in world practice, there are cases when two (or more) presidents are appointed, which dramatically increases the productivity of decision-making at the highest level, since a delay in making a decision by 1-2 weeks can lead to a delay in implementation planned assignments for several months.

The principle of validity. It means the need to create conditions in the planning system that will increase the validity of planning decisions.

To comply with this principle, in world practice, the technique is widely used when a specialist is appointed to the board of directors (usually in the field of finance, economics, investment) who is not responsible for any of the activities in the company. This allows him to consider the decisions made at the highest level from the position of the enterprise as a whole, which contributes to an increase in the level of justification, in contrast to other senior managers who are members of the board of directors and are responsible for a particular area of ​​activity and, accordingly, influence the decision from their positions.

In addition to this technique, at the highest level it is possible to form a small analytical group (2–4 people), the main task of which is to develop possible options for planning decisions for various conditions of influence of external and internal factors.

The prepared options for decisions are submitted for consideration at the highest management level and the adoption of one of the options for implementation.

Measures are also being taken at other levels of government to improve the level of evidence.

The principle of purposefulness. It is necessary to observe when formulating development plans and programs, given that financial resources are usually limited. The presence of a clear goal for planned activities makes it possible to form only such organizational and financial measures that ensure the achievement of exactly the set goal. This principle is ensured by the use of the goal tree method - a set of subordinate goals from the general to the goals of the first management level. A more detailed description of the goal tree method is presented in the strategic planning section.

The principle of complexity. When making planning decisions, it is necessary to simultaneously consider all aspects of the implementation of the planning decision. For example, solving the technical problem of upgrading equipment, it is necessary to analyze not only the technical aspect, but also the organizational, personnel, financial, technological, economic, and psychological aspects. Thus, it is necessary to comprehensively consider all aspects at the same time - otherwise, in the process of implementing the task, we will certainly face the need to solve these problems, and since possible problems were not considered in advance, their solution in the process of implementing the planned task requires additional time and resources, which will lead to a decrease in the likelihood of timely and high-quality execution of the task.

The principle of economy (rationality). It involves the use of economic criteria when choosing planning decisions from a variety of possible options.

Various indicators are used as criteria, depending on the direction of planning decisions:

a) if the planned tasks are aimed at increasing the solvency and financial stability of the enterprise, liquidity ratios (general, quick, absolute), the duration of the repayment of accounts payable and receivable, and the turnover ratios of working capital are used;

2) if an increase in the efficiency of resource use is ensured, the criteria are indicators of profitability of products, production, assets, as well as labor productivity, capital productivity, etc.

When planning the development of an enterprise on the basis of innovative projects, indicators of investment efficiency in innovation are used, namely: return on investment, payback period, total integral reduced effect (NPV), etc.

Thus, depending on the goals of planning, a set of relevant indicators is selected.

Considering that planning objects are multifactorial and multi-product, dynamically changing, multi-resource, it is difficult to find the optimal one in the process of making planning decisions, therefore, on the basis of the selected economic indicators, the most acceptable or rational is determined.

The principle of information content. It makes it necessary to create a system of information support for the planning decision-making process. The information system must create arrays of information, taking into account the requirements of various levels of management. Information systems include databases and data banks, software, modern information technologies. Compliance with this principle creates the prerequisites for increasing the validity and efficiency of planning decisions.

In addition to the above, it is necessary to take into account the basic principles established by the French economist A. Fayol, - unity(relationship), continuity(making adjustments, changes from the impact of the external and internal environment), flexibility, precision plans. R. Ackoff substantiated another key principle - participation of each employee in the planning process.

When forming planning decisions (tasks), one should also take into account:

Past experience, continuity of decisions, preservation of positive trends, traditions, which will save the planning system from abrupt and unreasonable changes;

Caution and gradualism in planning the rate of growth of production volumes or reducing costs, which protects the production system from catastrophic consequences and sharp declines in the financial stability of the enterprise. However, excessive caution is a brake on the development of the firm;

Anticipating future changes involves ensuring the readiness of the enterprise for planned or emerging changes;

Adaptation, that is, the adaptation of the current activities of the company to the goals of its long-term development.

Failure to comply with any of the planning principles leads to a decrease in the reliability and efficiency of planning decisions.

There is also an alternative grouping of the principles of strategic planning (Fig. 1).

Grouping principles of strategic planning... Rice. one

The principle of participation, or participatory planning, first of all, means direct involvement in the planning process of all those directly concerned. The most important product of planning is not so much plans as a certain type of document, but the process itself. It is through participation in planning that team members can develop themselves. In addition, participation in planning allows you to more clearly perceive the main problems facing the enterprise. Understand goals and participate more effectively in achieving them. “It's better to plan for yourself, no matter how bad, than to be planned by others, no matter how good,” says Russell Ackoff. 2

The main consequence of participatory planning is the reduction of the difficulties that are usually associated with the implementation of plans. People are much more willing to carry out plans in which they themselves took part. Participation makes execution an integral part of the planning process.

Continuity principle planning ensures communication, continuity and regular updates of information before the end of the planning period.

In practice, a situation often arises when the plan is approved, planning is suspended until the next similar period. This cycle of “start again, finish again” is repeated regularly, proving that there is no continuity in planning.

The need for the principle of continuity in planning is caused by several reasons: the need to modify the plan in case of deviation from the reality of the significance of the goal and the expectations laid down in the plan; significant changes in the elements of the external environment of the enterprise.

The principle of holism consists of two parts: the principle of integration and the principle of coordination. The enterprise can be divided into levels. Each level is divided into units differing in functions, products, etc.

Coordination encompasses the interaction of units of the same level. Integration - between units of different levels.

Coordination principle establishes that the activities of units of the same level, that is, horizontally, should be planned simultaneously and in interrelation.

Integration principle states that planning carried out independently at each level cannot be as effective as planning in conjunction at all levels. The combination of the principles of coordination and integration forms the principle of holism, according to which the more elements and levels in the system, the more profitable it is to plan simultaneously and interdependently.

In addition, planning uses the following principles:

1) necessity. The obligatory application of plans in any field of activity is the rational behavior of people. Before acting, everyone should know what they want and can;

2) elasticity. The adaptation of the initial plans to changing conditions is carried out by introducing planned reserves for the main indicators, using eventual (in case) planning for various situations and distributing data, using operational plans to account for emerging environmental changes, using alternative development scenarios;

3) e dynasty and completeness (consistency). Consistency is achieved in three main ways:

- the presence of a common (single) economic goal and the interaction of all structural divisions of the enterprise on the horizontal and vertical levels of planning;

- the conjugation of partial plans of the structural units of the firm and the spheres of activity (production, sales, personnel, investment, etc.);

- the inclusion in the plan of all factors that may be important for decision-making;

4) accuracy and detail. Any plan must be drawn up with a sufficiently high degree of accuracy to achieve the stated goal. As the transition from operational short-term to medium- and long-term strategic plans, the accuracy and detail of planning, respectively, may decrease until only the main goals and general directions of the firm's development are determined;

5) profitability. The costs of planning should be weighed against the benefits derived from it. The contribution of planning to efficiency is determined by improving the quality of decisions made;

6) optimality. At all stages of planning, the selection of the most effective solutions must be ensured. It is expressed in maximizing profits and other productive indicators of the company and minimizing costly ones under predicted constraints;

7) communication levels of management. It is achieved in three ways: by detailing plans from top to bottom; enlargement of plans from the bottom up; partial delegation of authority.

STRATEGIC PLANNING IN THE ENTERPRISE DURING THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS

K. E. Shchesnyak,

doctoral student of the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (Moscow),

PhD in Economics

A. Ya. Bystryakov,

Head of the Department of Finance and Credit, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (Moscow), Doctor of Economics [email protected]

The article examines the specifics of strategic planning at an enterprise in a financial and economic crisis, studies the stages of strategic planning, proposes the main indicator for a strategic goal in a crisis - the value of the company.

Key words: strategic toning, financial and economic crisis, enterprise management.

UDC 338; BBK 65.050

Problems in the global financial system arose against the background of the uncontrolled pumping of the world economic system with banknotes not backed by commodity production, issued primarily by the United States, as well as by Japan and the EU, which caused the spread of negative real lending rates around the world. A failure in the financial system caused a drop in prices for basic resources - oil, metal, chemical products, agriculture, etc.

Now practically all countries of the world are in a difficult situation, and in the context of globalization, world problems will constantly influence the course of Russian events, aggravated by specific internal problems.

At the same time, in the conditions of the crisis, additional opportunities appear for obtaining high incomes from investing money in real estate. As a result of the impact of the economic crisis, the cost of housing in Russia and many other countries has dropped significantly. At the same time, this drop in prices in many cases is not associated with the influence of fundamental factors that determine the demand for real estate in the long term, which makes it possible to find undervalued assets with significant growth potential. At the same time, the profitability of investments in such assets can significantly exceed the average values ​​during periods of stable economic growth.

Thus, the key conditions for effective investment in a crisis are the presence of a strong

GDP,% of the same period of the previous year Inflation Fig.1. Dynamics of GDP and inflation in Russia in 2007-2008

Source: Rosstat

102007 202007 302007 402007 102008 202008 302008 402008

a depreciating asset with significant growth potential, as well as choosing the best moment to acquire it at the lowest price.

During the period of the global financial crisis, a slowdown in economic growth is observed in Russia. Figure 1 shows the dynamics of the gross domestic product and inflation in Russia in 2007-2008.

As can be seen from Fig. 1, starting from the 1st quarter of 2008, a decrease in the rate of GDP growth has been observed in Russia - from 9.5% to 6.2%. Inflation in Russia was growing throughout 2007 and early 2008. In the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, the rate of price growth decreased slightly, but remains at a fairly high level.

As you know, market conditions depend on many macroeconomic factors. The market poses the problems of survival for economic entities, ensuring the continuity of its growth. The solution to these problems associated with the creation and implementation of the company's competitive advantages is based on the development and implementation of appropriate strategies.

Various factors influence the nature of the market recovery after crises. In addition to the general state of the economy (dynamics of GDP, inflation, unemployment), indicators such as household income, interest rates on mortgages, etc. are essential.

Thus, during a crisis, strategic planning creates conditions for the emergence of a number of the most important

predetermining conditions for companies, provides a basis for decision-making. A clear articulation of the company's goals helps determine the most appropriate ways to achieve them and helps reduce risk. By making informed planning decisions, the company reduces the risk of a wrong course due to erroneous or inaccurate information about the external situation. Strategic planning defines the strategic goals of the organization. The definition and implementation of strategies belongs to the category of complex and time-consuming management tasks that require not only a change in the prevailing stereotypes of management, but also a certain preparedness of managers who make decisions on the future development of the company.

Strategic planning is a process of practical activity of management subjects. It allows you to avoid major errors in assessing possible alternatives to market dynamics, the behavior of competitors and partners in the domestic and foreign markets. All this is formalized in a targeted directive document of the medium term, containing a system of measures agreed in terms of time, resources and performers, ensuring the achievement of the set program. The influence of instability factors in the macroenvironment, causing constant changes in the market situation, determines the continuous adjustment and refinement of the program.

It should be emphasized that strategic planning should be based on strategic guidelines that need to be achieved in the future, and proceed from the premise that the main threats are outside the company, and the company can anticipate dangers and threats before undesirable events occur and minimize losses if it is impossible to prevent them. In the system of strategic planning, the assumption is not made that the future must certainly be better than the past, therefore, in strategic planning, an important place is given to the analysis of the organization's prospects, which allows us to identify trends, dangers, opportunities that can change the prevailing trends.

The vector of the company's progressive development should be aimed at strategic tasks in order to follow the target guidelines, and ensure the necessary position of the company in the market by timely adjustments. In this regard, operational planning is a continuation and concretization of strategic planning.

The two main factors that determine the specifics of the strategy are:

1) industry and competition conditions that reflect the environment:

2) the internal situation and the competitive position of the company.

Industry and competition analysis broadly encompasses the entire environment or macroenvironment of a company, while situational analysis looks at the immediate sphere of existence, or microenvironment, of a company.

Leaders need to be keenly aware of the strategic aspects of the macro and microenvironment of the company in order to have a strategic vision, to be able to define the main goals and form a successful strategy. Lack of such understanding significantly increases the likelihood of forming a strategic plan that will not be appropriate for the situation, will not create the prospects for gaining a competitive advantage and, most likely, will not improve the company's performance.

When analyzing a company's position, you should focus on five questions:

1. How well does the current strategy work?

2. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the company, what are the opportunities for it and what dangers may arise?

3. Are the costs and prices of the company competitive?

4. Is the company's competitive position strong?

5. What are the strategic challenges facing the company?

Evaluation of the strategy should be carried out, on the one hand,

on the basis of qualitative characteristics (completeness, internal consistency, compliance with the situation), on the other hand, the best evidence of the effectiveness of the company's strategy follows from the study of financial performance indicators, as well as indicators characterizing the results of the strategy implementation. In particular, indicators of a company's performance can be:

The place of the company in the industry by its market share:

Change in the company's profitability, comparison with the indicators of competitors:

Trends in the company's net profit and investment return:

The most important stage in analyzing the company's situation is a systematic assessment of the strength of its competitive position in comparison with the position of its closest competitors. As a general rule, a company's competitiveness should be based on its strengths and on supporting those areas in which the company is competitively vulnerable. In addition, areas where the strength of the company is confronted by the weakness of competitors are the best potential business area.

The main components of strategic planning: defining the mission of the organization. This process consists in establishing the meaning of the firm's existence, its purpose, role and place in the market economy. It characterizes the direction in business that firms are guided by based on market needs, the nature of consumers, product characteristics and the availability of competitive advantages.

Formulation of goals and objectives. To describe the nature and level of business claims inherent in a particular type of business, the terms - objectives - and<задачи>\ Goals and objectives involve determining the level of customer service. They determine the motivation of the people in the firm. The target picture should have at least four types of goals: quantitative goals: qualitative goals: strategic goals: tactical goals, etc. Goals for the lower levels of the firm are considered tasks.

Analysis and assessment of the external and internal environment. Environmental analysis is usually considered the initial process of strategic management, as it provides the basis for both defining the mission and goals of the firm and for formulating a strategy of behavior that allows the firm to fulfill its mission and achieve its goals.

One of the key roles of any management is to maintain a balance in the interaction of the organization with the environment. Each organization is involved in the following processes: obtaining resources from the external environment (input): transformation of resources into a product (transformation): transfer of a product to the external environment (output). The control is designed to provide a balance of input and output. As soon as this balance is disturbed in an organization, it embarks on the path of dying. The modern marketplace has dramatically increased the importance of the exit process in maintaining this balance. This is precisely reflected in the fact that the first block in the structure of strategic management is the block for analyzing the environment.

The analysis of the environment involves the study of its three components: macroenvironment: immediate environment: internal environment of the organization.

The analysis of the external environment (macro- and immediate environment) is aimed at finding out what the company can count on if it successfully carries out its work, and what complications can await it if it fails to ward off negative attacks that can present her with the environment. The analysis of the macroenvironment includes the study of the influence of the economy, legal regulation and management, political processes, the natural environment and resources, social and cultural components of society, scientific, technical and technological development of society, infrastructure, etc.

The immediate environment is analyzed according to the following main components: buyers, suppliers, competitors, labor market. The analysis of the internal environment reveals those opportunities, the potential that a firm can count on in the competitive struggle in the process of achieving its goals. Analysis of the internal environment also allows you to better understand the goals of the organization, to formulate the mission more correctly, that is, to determine the meaning and direction of the firm's activities. It is extremely important to always remember that an organization not only produces products for the environment, but also provides an opportunity for its members to exist, giving them work, providing an opportunity to participate in profits, providing them with social guarantees, etc.

The internal environment is analyzed in the following areas: human resources: management organization: finance: marketing: organizational structure, etc.

Development and analysis of strategic alternatives, choice of strategy. Strategy development is carried out at the highest level

management. At this stage of decision-making, it is necessary to evaluate alternative ways of operating the firm and choose the best options to achieve the set goals. The firm faces four major strategic alternatives: limited growth, growth, contraction, and a combination of these strategies. Most organizations in developed countries adhere to limited growth. Leaders are least likely to choose a reduction strategy. In it, the level of the pursued goals is set lower than that achieved in the past. For many firms, downsizing can mean a path to streamline and reorient operations. Strategic choice is influenced by a variety of factors: risk (a factor in the life of the firm): knowledge of past strategies: the reaction of stockholders, who often limit the flexibility of management in choosing a strategy: a time factor, depending on the choice of the right moment. Decision-making on strategic issues can be carried out in different directions: ¿from bottom to top, ¿from top to bottom-, in the interaction of the above two areas (the strategy is developed in the process of interaction between top management, planning service and operational units). The formation of the strategy of the firm as a whole is becoming increasingly important. This concerns the prioritization of the problems to be solved, the determination of the structure of the firm, the rationale for investment, the coordination and integration of strategies.

Thus, the main advantage of strategic planning is the greater degree of validity of the planned indicators, the greater the likelihood of the implementation of the planned scenarios for the development of events.

The current pace of change in the economy is so high that strategic planning seems to be the only way to formally forecast future problems and opportunities. It provides the top management of the company with the means of creating a plan for a long time, provides a basis for decision-making, helps to reduce risk in decision-making, and ensures the integration of goals and objectives of all structural divisions and executives of the company.

However, strategic planning does not and cannot give, by virtue of its essence, a detailed description of the picture of the future. What it can give is a qualitative description of the state to which the firm should strive in the future, what position it can and should occupy in the market and in business in order to answer the main question - whether or not a firm will survive in the competition: strategic planning does not have a clear algorithm for drawing up and implementing the plan. His descriptive theory boils down to a specific philosophy or ideology of doing business. Therefore, a specific toolkit largely depends on the personal qualities of a particular manager, and in general, strategic planning is a symbiosis of intuition and the art of top management, the ability of a manager to lead a company to strategic goals.

Strategic plans should be designed to not only remain consistent over long periods of time, but also be flexible enough to be modified and reoriented as needed. The overall strategic plan should be seen as a program that guides the firm's activities over an extended period of time, realizing that a conflicting and constantly changing business and social environment makes constant adjustments inevitable.

Adjustment of the strategic plan is necessary only in cases of a significant revision of the company's development goals or unpredictable changes, primarily external conditions, as a result of which the initially set development goals can disorient management.

A definite alternative to adjusting the strategic plan is to reduce the planning horizon. Moreover, this is justified not only in the case of a high likelihood of an unpredictable change in external conditions, but also in general for low-performing companies or those in an unstable financial position. Practice shows that companies that are doing well change the rules of decision-making and the decisions themselves insignificantly within a particular planning horizon. At the same time, companies with low profitability are more inclined to seek new directions of development, which inevitably leads to a revision of previously adopted plans and tasks.

Thus, the lower the profitability of the company and the more difficult its financial position, the smaller the planning horizon should be or the more often adjustments of previously approved strategic plans should be made.

Considering that the accuracy of the forecast decreases with the expansion of its time interval, with the expansion of the planning horizon, the probability of 100% hitting the approved targets decreases. Management can be required to fully implement (or at least implement with minimal deviations) operational plans, but with annual (and even more so with long-term) planning, deviation of the actual results from the benchmarks becomes inevitable. In such conditions, it is difficult to correctly assess the compliance of the actual results obtained with the goals that were set for the company when the strategic plan was approved. Therefore, a prerequisite for a comprehensive assessment of the company's performance is the correct determination of the composition of control indicators and standards for the planning period.

The task is to single out those main indicators among the set of indicators (positions, articles), the implementation of which should be mandatory for management. The higher the financial performance of the company, the more importance should be given to planning and control, the more benchmarks should be used.

We propose to consider the growth of the company's value as the main task facing its management. In this case, strategic planning should include, firstly, tasks for increasing the cost for the planning period: secondly, the planned indicators for the main factors (areas) affecting the growth of the company's value.

As for the increase in the value of the company for the planning period, the formulation of this task (and the corresponding calculation) should be based on the requirements for the return on capital invested by the owners. In this case, the invested capital is understood as the cost of capital at the beginning of the planning period, and the return is calculated as the sum of the increase in capitalization and income received during the planning period. As a rule, the establishment of certain indicators of return on capital reflects both the subjective expectations of investors and objective comparisons with the profitability of other financial instruments (including the risk component).

Achievement of the set goal of capitalization growth depends on a number of both economic and non-economic (political, etc.) factors. Accordingly, in order to achieve the planned growth in the company's value, plan targets are set for the main indicators that affect its value and depend on its management (taking into account the predicted impact of non-economic factors). As a rule, these indicators include the growth of business volume (revenue, investments, etc.), return on equity, as well as indicators of the maximum level of debt, expenses, etc.

Literature

1. Ansoff I. Strategic management. - M .: Economics, 1995.

2. Keynes D.M. General theory of employment of interest and money. - Internet resource. Access mode: http://www.gumfak.ru/econom_html / keins / keins06. shtml

3. Korotkov E., Kuzmina E. Genesis management // Problems of theory and practice of management. - 2006. - No. 1.

4. Semelkin V.Yu. Planning as a factor in the effective functioning of an enterprise // Economics and Management. - 2007. - No. 5 (31).

5. Syrbu A.N. Analysis of the position of the company in the formation of strategy // Economics and Management. - 2007. - No. 5 (31).

6. Economic theory. Electronic textbook. - Internet resource. Access mode: http://el.tfi.uz/ru/et/gl14.html

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Crisis planning

We invited several dozen CFOs and directors of economics to take part in this study.

Top managers of companies from different industries and regions acted as experts on the topic: Akron, Angstrem TM, Brok-Invest-Service, GazReserv Group, OMZ Mining Business, LenSpetsSMU, Lyubimy Krai KO, Magnitogorsk Metallurgical plant, RIAT, IK RED, HC Sibirskiy Cement, Sibelektromotor, General Contracting Company STEP, Fuel Systems, Jewelry Network 585.

We did not focus on the statistical significance of the results; it was important to get a wide range of opinions and approaches to planning. The main thing for us was to hear both those who were put in a difficult financial situation by the crisis, and those whom it has hardly affected so far. Experts represent key sectors of the economy: industry and consumer goods; development and construction; distribution and retail.

The study focuses on the following issues:

1. What are the features of planning in a crisis?

2. What are the main approaches to such planning?

3. How is the problem of high uncertainty dealt with in preparing the plan?

4. How is scenario planning used in practice?

5. What are some useful practical "tricks" for practitioners?

Plan - for the crisis

Most executives see the plan as an essential tool for managing a company in times of crisis. According to Ivan Bagazeev, director for economics at Sibelectromotor, it is “the target figures that are an element of stability in the chaos of the crisis”. Moreover, planning should be not only operational, but also medium-term. Although the concept of medium term changes somewhat in times of crisis. If during the period of stability a 1-3-year plan was considered a medium-term plan, now it is only for 1 year. Alexey Tarasov, CFO of IK RED (development), also speaks about the change in the planning time: “We have developed plans for the year. Longer ones are pointless, the degree of uncertainty is too great. You cannot plan for less than a year. We will correct and clarify plans within the framework of quarterly planning. For a month we do only the specified DDS-ki ".

In a crisis situation, the role of the annual plan in the management of the company changes. First of all, the plan becomes not so much a set of financial indicators as an indication of action, depending on the implementation of various risk factors. Ivan Bagazeev believes that the goals should be "reasonably fuzzy", i.e. set the direction of development and identify the priorities of the company, while leaving freedom in terms of a specific interpretation. This will allow the planning to maintain a single direction of movement, leaving the possibility of choosing the paths along which the company will develop. Moreover, it is during a crisis that the importance of the coordinating function of the plan increases, which ensures the coherence of anti-crisis actions of all divisions of the company.

Further, the plan should allow making operational decisions in response to current changes in the external environment. Excessive pressure from tight budgets can reduce the effectiveness of middle management decisions, limiting their flexibility in responding to changing market conditions. To this end, according to Igor Basov, external financial manager of the 585 Jewelry chain, “the company's management should pay maximum attention to the effective exchange of information between the division and to provide feedback to all levels of management, sometimes even despite information security considerations”.

As Ivan Bagazeev aptly noted, for managers and shareholders, the plan fulfills a psychoanalytic function - experiencing troubles before they arise. A well-designed plan gives you the confidence that any challenge can be overcome.

So, the key features of the approach to planning in a crisis are the reduction of detail, increased flexibility and efficiency. Matti Tauk, Development Director of Acron, noted that “all types of planning should continue to exist, only the emphasis on detailing is changing.” First of all, the level of detail of medium-term plans is decreasing. Evgeny Cherevko, Director of the Economics Department of the holding company "Siberian Cement", believes that the details of the elaboration of the medium-term plan can be reduced to indicative planning. Natalya Kovalchuk, Financial Director of OMZ Mining Equipment and Technologies (OMZ GOiT) and Mark Sorokin, Financial Director of IZ-KARTEX proposed a successful criterion for the required level of detail: “The plan should provide exactly the level of detail that allows management to manage the enterprise ".

With regard to flexibility and efficiency of planning, experts highly rate such a tool as rolling planning. Thus, in the metal trading company Brok-Invest-Service, a rolling plan is developed for three months and revised approximately 2-3 times a month. It is important to remember that with significant variability and flexibility of medium-term and operational plans, the company's strategic plans should change only in special cases: “In no case should strategic plans change with the same speed - the company in times of crisis should be“ dynamically stable ”as never before ... This means that, while the strategic goals and mission remain unchanged, operational plans must fully comply with the realities of the business environment, ”says Anton Evdokimov, vice president of LenSpetsSMU. In turn, Oleg Fedonin, Vice President for Finance and Economics at MMK Management Company, notes the importance of taking into account industry specifics: “Metallurgy is not retail trade, it is impossible to change the direction of activity or assortment at once, moments of inertia are strong. But what definitely needs to be done is to revise the numerical expression of goals. "

At first glance, in a crisis situation, the approach of companies to planning becomes unified. Planning becomes more flexible, less detailed, but at the same time more critical for the company. The set of planning tools used is generally the same.

However, a closer look reveals that different companies have different planning priorities. For some, the survival of the company is critically important, for others - the behavior of macroeconomic factors. For the third, almost nothing has changed.

Based on the experience of expert practitioners and consulting experience, we have identified 3 approaches to planning in a crisis:

1.from the "living wage"

2.from scenarios of the development of the external environment

3.from target indicators

Of course, in practice, there are many more options. Usually, in various proportions, all three approaches are combined. But it is important to clearly understand which of the approaches is the main one for the company and which are additional.

1. The “from a living wage” approach is quite widespread in the current period. It is actively used by companies from the industries most affected by the crisis or by companies from relatively prosperous industries that have entered a crisis with a significant debt burden. This is how the financial director of RIAT, Alexander Selyukov, describes the approach to planning: “Every week, based on an assessment of the external environment (purchase orders and preliminary plans of buyers), an adjusted version of the budget is formed and reviewed. The scenario is pessimistic, but taking into account the need to maintain a positive balance of DC, additional tasks are set to reduce warehouses, demand for remote controls, etc. "

Usually, with this approach, the key task is to maintain the liquidity of the company. However, in practice, other indicators are also used. "For the" survival "of our enterprises, the main task is the minimum necessary contracting, which ensures the utilization of the enterprise at least 50%, even at the cost of worsening payment terms (for example, a 100% deferred payment) of manufactured products" - say Natalya Kovalchuk and Mark Sorokin (Gorny OMZ business).

2. The approach “from scenarios of the development of the external environment” is critically important for companies whose business depends significantly on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and decisions of the authorities. First of all, this applies to importers and exporters, monopoly companies. Our experience in consulting work with such companies shows that, depending on the combination of significant environmental factors, financial and economic results can differ significantly. The influence of internal factors on them is usually less significant. Scenario planning is certainly very useful for “regular” companies as well. Roman Gusev, CFO of Angstrem TM (a significant share of imported raw materials in production) notes that scenarios are developed based on market analysis, forecasts of the economic situation, government decisions on their industry. “This is the basis for preparing our plan,” he says.

Unlike the previous approach, such indicators as the dollar exchange rate, oil price, Gazprom's investment program, etc. become the key indicators from which planning is based. This is how Yulia Belova, director of economics at GazReserv Group, comments on this issue: “Since our company is one of the leading importers in the North-West region, the main difficulty we face is forecasting the exchange rate of the euro and the dollar. At the moment, based on several possible scenarios for changes in exchange rates, a number of plans are being developed. For ourselves, we have adopted: the optimistic option - the dollar and euro exchange rates of 33 and 43 rubles, respectively, realistic - 36 and 47 rubles, and the pessimistic 40 and 50 rubles ”.

3. The “from target” approach is typical for companies, the impact of the crisis on their business is so far insignificant. As a rule, planning is based on the same indicators as in the pre-crisis period. For most companies, however, this is problematic. So, Yulia Koshkina, Marketing Director of the "Fuel Systems" TM Pekar company, believes that now the use of target indicators is effective only in the operational period.

Elena Streltsova, General Director of the Lyubimy Krai Confectionery Association, has no problems with planning in a crisis: “And at normal times we lived like on a volcano, so we did not have to change anything, since our planning system fully corresponds to the reality in which now there are many ”. The company produces low-margin gingerbread and biscuits and is active with most chains. “The biggest risk for us is non-payment of retail and wholesale customers, and we follow this very closely until we complain,” says Elena Streltsova.

The differences between the three approaches described are well illustrated in how companies approach balancing liquidity and profitability in their plans. For the first approach, this is "ensuring liquidity with the minimum acceptable level of profitability", for the third approach - "ensuring a given level of profitability with an acceptable level of liquidity".

Our experts designate different “resistance levels”. Ivan Bagazeev (Sibelektromotor) notes that this year profitability is not a target indicator, "how it turned out as a result of calculations is good." Natalya Kovalchuk and Mark Sorokin (OMZ Mining Business) state that they have to "compromise on profitability (but not lower than variable costs !!!), but due to this, more favorable payment terms are obtained." According to Oleg Fedonin (MMK), “in the short term, the company gives priority to maintaining its liquidity cushion. This is due to the task of maintaining an appropriate level of working capital in the context of the extremely high cost of raising debt capital. The main criterion in determining the range of products produced is the condition of covering variable costs, so that at least the products bring a marginal profit. " At RIAT, the profitability target is zero (ie avoiding losses), taking into account all overhead costs. At the same time, Roman Gusev (Angstrem TM) notes that the annual plan includes an increased level of profitability, taking into account inflation and currency risks.

The most difficult feature of planning in a crisis is the high degree of uncertainty about the future.

"Hedgehog in the fog"

From the experience of our expert practitioners, a number of rules can be distinguished on how to make a crisis plan more realistic.

Calculation based on a pessimistic forecast. If the company is prepared for the worst-case scenario, then it will surely cope with the best. “In operational terms, we deliberately use the pessimistic prerequisites for the development of various factors and use the maximum of compensating measures to insure possible disruptions. This allows you to avoid a high degree of uncertainty ”- Natalia Kovalchuk and Mark Sorokin share their experience.

Use of expert assessments of employees. Evgeny Cherevko (Sibirskiy Cement Holding Company) calls the method of expert assessments one of the main ones for overcoming the problem of uncertainty, although he notes that it is not formalized enough in the company. When we ourselves conduct anti-crisis planning sessions, the method of expert assessments plays an important role and allows us to effectively use the vast experience and knowledge accumulated by the company's top managers in a short time. In the current practice of companies, this method is usually not used enough. Stops that these are not accurate data and forecasts. But for planning in a crisis, precise ones are not needed.

Relying on the knowledge and experience of the sales service. At the same time, it is important to realistically assess the company's level of understanding of its market. Unfortunately, we have repeatedly encountered a situation when the company's management was confident that the market was well studied, and then it turned out that this knowledge was significantly overestimated and the company did not understand what was happening with sales in a crisis situation. Our opinion is confirmed by Natalya Kovalchuk and Mark Sorokin: “You can talk a lot about market forecasts, trends in the global and domestic economy, but without a professional, responsible sales service, it is almost impossible to get a realistic plan.”

Prompt response to changes. It is also possible to create a special group of managers in the company, which will monitor the main industry and macroeconomic indicators and broadcast the results for a quick response. Such a task force for change management was created in the Fuel Systems company. According to Andrey Kazinsky, director of economics at Brok-Invest-Service, the key point in operational planning is the group work of top managers to coordinate payments and receipts: current situation ".

Support for a stable purchasing and sales system. This is how Yulia Belova (GazReserv Group of Companies) comments: “Since GazReserv has been actively present on the market for more than 6 years, 70% of all operating agreements are concluded with the company's permanent partners, which are executed practically without deviations from month to month. The share of free sales and purchases is less than 30% - thus, even if the sales plan in this part is “failed” by a quarter (which, in principle, should not be), this will lead to a failure to fulfill the overall sales plan by only 7.5% ”.

Scenario planning is undoubtedly a key planning tool in an environment of high uncertainty.

How to write scripts

There are no screenwriting courses in economics universities, which is a pity. The ability to write a tightly knit script is now in the price. And CFOs are actively mastering this craft.

Each company has its own peculiarities of script development. However, the general approach is often the same. We distinguish 5 main stages of scenario planning in a company:

Determination of the key environmental factors affecting the company

It is very important to take an individual approach to the issue of highlighting the influencing factors for each specific company. You should not get carried away with excessive analysis and forecasting of external macroeconomic factors, which, on the one hand, may not be so significant for the company, and on the other hand, often cannot be accurately predicted even by specialized expert structures.

The number of really influencing factors can be small. Thus, according to Alexey Tarasov (IC RED), only two factors are important for their company: the state of the money market (availability of borrowing) and the demand for the product (purchase / lease of premises) as a result of the economic situation in the country or region.

Qualitative formulation of scenarios

In scenario forecasting, it is very important to formulate qualitatively different scenarios for the development of events. Companies often limit themselves to drawing up pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenarios, which is wrong, since are essentially mathematical variations of the same scenario. In addition, it is often too difficult to make adequate quantitative forecasts, while it is more realistic to determine the main possible trends and directions of development.

A characteristic feature of the current crisis is predominantly pessimistic business forecasts. This is often justified. However, we regularly encounter a situation when they do not even try to look for positive opportunities and non-trivial anti-crisis ideas. For example, recently, during our anti-crisis session, the company's management was simply amazed, when in the end it turned out that the positive impact of the crisis on the company's business (opportunities for growth in export sales, etc.) turned out to be stronger than its negative impact (decline in domestic demand, etc.) .).

However, some of the companies surveyed take into account the opportunities presented by the crisis in their scenarios. For example, STEP General Contractor has developed 2 scenarios: pessimistic - compiled only for existing facilities with an assessment of customers' solvency, and optimistic, which assumes the appearance of new orders for construction during 2009. Pavel Mikhailushkin, CFO of the company, comments on this: “We were based on the following factors: a decrease in investment activity in the country and the emergence of new opportunities due to structural shifts. In particular, the devaluation of the ruble may lead to the emergence of activity in import-substituting industries, a decrease in the value of Russian assets and expenses denominated in rubles, will increase the interest of foreign companies in investing in Russia. "

Digitizing scenarios - forecasting the development of factors and forecasting the development of markets

Enlarged digitization of scenarios is needed, since allows you to go to the development of plans for the company, which are always in the "digital". For Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, the key factors included in the scenario are exchange rates, market conditions, and macroeconomic parameters of the Russian Federation. Oleg Fedonin notes that “in the medium term, it is rather difficult to determine the real level of prices. And here it is more appropriate to determine the ratio of prices for metal and raw materials, since these prices exist in a close correlation ”.

Identifying risks and opportunities for the company in each scenario

At this stage, the basic prerequisites for formulating the response are laid.

Yulia Belova (GazReserv Group of Companies) shared with us an interesting experience of the transition from scenario development to response measures: sales in conventional units (equal to the dollar). In this case, the risk is eliminated that, having received (conditionally) 100 rubles per 100 kg a month after shipment (commodity credit for 30 days), we will be able to purchase only 85 kg of the next batch, since the ruble has depreciated by 15% over the month ”.

Identification of critical events and determination of milestones for the development of scenarios

At this stage, indicators of two types are determined:

1) Events in the external environment, the occurrence of which will be an indicator of a change in scenarios.

2) Indicators by which the development of scenarios is regularly monitored.

Andrey Kazinsky (Brok-Invest-Service) comments on this issue in the following way: “As part of planning for 2009, we used two sets of control figures: for the base case (the“ bottom ”in the industry has been reached) and a very tough one. The second option was worked out in the context of activities in parallel with the creation of budgets for the baseline. It is assumed that when the external environment deteriorates, the company synchronously switches to this option and each manager keeps in his head a set of necessary measures to make this transition. "

Anton Evdokimov (LenSpetsSMU) also speaks about the importance of having clear scenarios in the heads of managers. For this, possible scenarios for the development of events are repeatedly "run" in the group of top managers of the company.

Useful tricks from our experts

Planning is a job for all top managers of the enterprise, the results of which are communicated to each of the employees.

The adopted planning system and forecasting methods must be consistent and not change ad hoc, that is, with regard to (and without reason), one must be consistent.

If the pessimistic option does not allow maintaining the positive balance of the DS and fulfilling the obligations, then it is necessary to set targets related to the motivation (sale of warehouses, activation of measures to demand the DS).

Mirrored contracts for the implementation of the terms of payment in the purchase contracts: 100% deferred payment for the maximum possible time, the argument for buyers - guaranteed loading of the supplier's production is a competitive advantage.

Sequestration of fixed costs and their rationing for revenue, i.e. "Translating" them into variable costs.

In a crisis, the approach of “zero” budgeting is used in terms of assets, when budgets are drawn up not on the basis of the results of the previous period, but on the basis of strategic and operational measures planned for the billing period.

Develop a deliberately excessive number of measures aimed at compensating for “problem gaps” (shortage of funds, shortage of profits). In this case, one should not slip into a chaotic dispersion of efforts - you may not get any effect at all. A leader is important in each of these mini-project events. "

And in conclusion, I would like to cite the words of Natalia Kovalchuk and Mark Sorokin, which can serve as parting words to the management of companies in our difficult times: “The crisis is a“ litmus test ”for the management of an enterprise: how effectively can we respond to negative changes in the external environment and“ extinguish ”it how much we are able to change and improve, thereby giving the company a chance to survive in a crisis ... "

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