How to determine the volume of the deficit. Product deficit and surplus: definition and implications. An example from the recent past

The table shows the scale of supply and demand of goods
| Р (thousand rubles / per unit) | Qp (thousand units per year) | Qs (thousand units per year) |
|1 |25 |5 |
|2 |20 |10 |
|3 |15 |15 |
|4 |10 |20 |
|5 |5 |25 |
1) Determine the equilibrium sales volume and price?
2) Determine the volume of demand for the product and the volume of supply of the product at a price of P = 2 thousand rubles. per unit?
3) What is the situation in the market for a product at a price of P = 2 thousand rubles. per unit (deficit or overstocking)?
4) Determine the volume of deficit or surplus in the market at a price of P = 2 thousand rubles. per unit?
5) What will sellers do if they find that there is a deficit (excess) in the market?

Answers:

Solution: 1) analytically, based on the initial data, we determine the supply and demand functions. Qp = a-bP- demand function (based on the initial data - a linear function). Then: 25 = a-b; 20 = a-2b; Let's solve the system of equations: a = 25 + b; 20 = 25 + b-2b; b = 5; a = 30, then the demand function has the form: Qp = 30-5P. Qs = a + bP - supply function (based on input data - linear function). 5 = a + b; 10 = a + 2b; a = 5-b; 10 = 5-b + 2b; b = 5; a = 0, then the supply function has the form: Qs = 5P. Let's define the equilibrium price: 30-5P = 5P; Then P = 3 is the equilibrium price. Let's define the equilibrium sales volume: Qcomp. = 5 * 3 = 15 pcs. - equilibrium sales volume. 2) Determine the volume of demand for goods and the volume of supply of goods at a price of P = 2 thousand rubles. per unit Qp = 30-5P = 30-5 * 2 = 20 thousand units. per year - the volume of demand for the product; Qs = 5 * 2 = 10 thousand units. per year - the volume of supply for the product. 3) What is the situation in the market for a product at a price of P = 2 thousand rubles. per unit (deficit or overstocking)? Since at P = 2 thousand rubles. per unit the volume of demand for the product is 20 thousand units. per year, and the volume of supply is 10 thousand units. a year, then there will be a shortage in the market. 4) The volume of the deficit in the market at a price of P = 2 thousand rubles. per unit will amount to 10 thousand units. in year. 5) What will sellers do if they find that there is a deficit (excess) in the market? If there is a shortage of goods on the market, the sellers will accordingly raise the price of the goods; if there is a surplus, then the price will go down.

Deficit - this is an urgent need for a position that you do not have in stock. This situation leads to easily calculated costs. And, if for reselling companies this translates into a loss from lost profits, then for manufacturing companies it can cause downtime of capacities, which is fraught with significant O the greatest losses. In addition, in both types of companies the situation of a regular significant deficit can lead to the loss of some customers! .. But, despite all these possible negative consequences of the deficit, very many companies not only do not manage the deficit, but do not even consider it! ..

How to get scarcity data.

There are four most common options for companies to obtain scarcity data.

1. Implementation of a pre-order document, when the employees who form the order do not see the remains of the warehouse, but clogs the data about what they need. On the basis of this document, an invoice or a transfer invoice is built, into which all the quantities available on the balance from the pre-order fall. And in parallel, a primary document of the deficit is formed, which includes all quantities from the pre-order, which were not on the remains of the warehouse.

• Pros. Formation of deficit documents becomes automatic and, as it were, objective - it is difficult to argue that there was no deficit.
• Minuses. It can be: as insufficient data on the deficit, when an employee who already knows about the absence of a position will not waste time to score it in new pre-orders; and unnecessary data on the shortage, when, in the hope of the appearance of balances in the form of a pre-order, one and the same need will be issued. In addition, the possibility of interactive notification of consumers about the absence of the position they need is lost, so that they can carry out a more convenient selection of the positions they need.
• It is best to use such a system when calculating the deficit of a distribution center serving branches or stores that drop orders for supply no more than once a week.

• Pros. Lack of automatically entered overestimated or underestimated deficit data.
• Minuses. Often: either the absence, in general, of any documents - if the employees are not in any way interested in entering them; or vice versa - special introduction of forged documents, if the employee has any interest in this.
• It is best to use such a system in a situation with 100% supply of demand with stocks. In this case, only information about the demand for products, which, in general, is not represented in the company's assortment, will be entered into such primary documents of the deficit. Based on this information, it will be possible to determine what other assortment is in regular demand, which means that it needs to be started.

• Pros. Automatic calculation of deficits. Absence of costs for the unproductive entry of primary documents on the shortage - either directly or through pre-orders. It is more difficult for interested employees to falsify scarcity information.
• Minuses. Complexity of mathematical models used to correctly estimate deficits. Possibility of technical or logical error that can lead to erroneous results.
• Such a system can be applied wherever it is economically feasible. At the same time, the implementation of such a calculation is not so expensive, for example, a module ready for 1C that will automatically calculate the deficit, and even based on the data obtained, build a forecast of demand for the future - st O it on http://prognoz-prodaj.ru/ only 37,760 rubles.

• Pros. in the ability to collect all the advantages of the above methods and neutralize the disadvantages by combining the third model with the first or second.
• Minuses. Such a synthesis is not at all trivial, as it might seem at first, since for each case of differing values: calculated and according to primary documents, it is necessary to think over a decision-making system, which of them or which compilation of them should be taken into account.

So what's the deficit?

If you have just stopped in perplexity at the word "calculation" with a question, and four methods of which we then considered before, then I will explain with an example. "Is a deficit of a million rubles a lot?" - For some companies, this is more than their turnover, and against the background of tens of billions of rubles, such a deficit is lost in the statistical error. That is, in order to understand the criticality of the situation, it is necessary to operate with non-absolute values, which we still need to financially justify additional spending on combating the deficit. To assess the same deficit and its dynamics, it is necessary to use relative values ​​- that is, the same deficit, but expressed as a percentage. And here the question arises, as a percentage of what? And here, too, there are options: in the concept ACE - Total Management of Stocks - these options are usually called types or orders of deficit.

1. The first type is the simplest: when we count the number of indicators of stock shortage - deletions - that is, incompletely completed shipments from the warehouse due to the lack of the necessary goods there, after which we divide this quantity by the total number of applications received at the warehouse. However, for all the simplicity of this technique, they try not to apply it. First, in this case, the situations do not differ from each other in any way when we shipped by a million and deleted by a thousand, and vice versa, when we deleted by a million and shipped by a thousand. Secondly, employees have the opportunity to fictitiously reduce the deficit by splitting orders into several documents for “different” warehouse areas, which increases the number of “successfully” completed shipments. Although to prevent such fraud, a variation of this methodology helps, based on calculating the deficit not by the number of documents, but based on the number of crossed out lines in these documents in relation to the total number of lines in all applications. This method of calculation is used in areas with the same type of products and approximately the same order volume by internal or external customers.
2. The second type is the most common. He is so popular because he highlights deficits from the most important point of view for senior management and company owners - financial! Namely, it gives an estimate of the percentage of lost funds due to a shortage of the company's revenue. The calculation is carried out according to the following formula:

deficit percentage = deficit amount / (deficit amount + sales amount) , where:

the sum of the deficit is obtained in one of the four ways discussed above.

1. The third type is a combination of the first two. We estimate the amount of bids that are not fully collateralized and divide them by the sum of all bids. This modification of the deficit calculation is used when calculating supply losses to retail chains, which impose serious penalties for underdelivery. For the same reason, this modification is used in some industries - in this case, the penalty turns out to be implicit, but in case of downtime of production facilities due to the lack of one single part, this is quite justified.

Fighting the deficit.

After the data on the deficit have been collected and summarized in the necessary formula, the question usually always arises of how to make it smaller. It is possible, of course, to oblige an employee by directive to answer with his salary for a deficit exceeding certain norms, but as practice shows, an enterprise in such cases loses much more than an employee. And the laying of everything and more, leading us away from the deficit, pushes us to the other extreme, which is fraught with write-offs by expiration date, prolonged freezing of funds, illiquid assets and an increase in storage costs. In general, it is always better to work with the cause, not the effect, the deficit itself is always an unpleasant consequence, therefore we will formulate solutions specifically for the reasons for the deficit, which are usually the following.

Fictitious reserves. You have a small amount of some item in your warehouse, but in principle, it should be enough until the next delivery arrives. And suddenly, one of the cunning employees reserves the entire remaining amount for themselves, so that later, in any case, do not experience a deficit in this position, although, perhaps, he will not need it until the very moment the next delivery arrives. At the same time, all other employees are forced to experience a real deficit if they need this position, since they will not be able to take it from the warehouse - it is reserved.

Solution: introduction of responsibility for employees who do not use their reserves for a long time and automatic withdrawal from the reserve if it is not implemented after a certain time.

Great need. You have stock for another two weeks, the next order has already been placed, and will arrive at the warehouse in 3-4 days. It seems that there is no reason for panic, but, suddenly, some of the internal or external clients has an urgent need for a large volume of this position, and he buys up the entire stock for it.

Solution: try to ship large volumes - under an additional application-order from the supplier for this client. You can even give an additional discount to external customers for a preliminary order - in any case, for the company it will be cheaper than keeping such a volume for a long time in the warehouse, and then remaining with a deficit. If a client wants to receive his entire large order here and now, then communicate with him for a gradual delivery in the process of the arrival of these products to your warehouse. Most likely, the technological processes will still not allow him to use the entire purchased volume by position, and he is such only to save on delivery and get the maximum discount. Therefore, you can fix prices and promise free delivery, the main thing is to agree that right now there will be only partial shipment, and the second part will be delivered to him free of charge after the next batch arrives.

Lack of trusted suppliers. Often the reason for a large protracted deficit is the bankruptcy of the main supplier, which suddenly turns out to be the one and only. The frantic search for a replacement, hasty negotiations, and the first deliveries, which often turn out to be the "first pancake", do not improve the situation with the already empty warehouse for a long time. Not such a terrible situation, but also leading to a significant deficit, can be a delay in the arrival of a specific delivery to the warehouse. The reason may be: a long customs, and a loss on the road, and something else - in any case, the company needs a supplier for each position nearby, who, albeit not at the best prices, will provide it with everything necessary before the main supply arrives from main supplier.

Solution: creation of a register of verified suppliers, in which for each purchased commodity group the following should be entered:

· main supplier;

· a supplier to replace the main one if something happens to him;

· supplier to intercept if there is a delay in delivery from the main supplier.

Any company in the vicinity, even a direct competitor of the company, can act as this supplier for interception.

Unrealistic delivery times. You can estimate the deficit - not only for the company as a whole or for specific items, but also in the context of suppliers, branches, employees who are responsible for the supply of these items. And if a deficit is regularly detected for some of the suppliers, then, most likely, the order to him is carried out too late. As a result, by the time the goods arrive, there is a constant deficit.

Solution: calculation of real delivery times through the difference between the date of order formation to the supplier and the date of delivery of products to the warehouse in order to start the order based on this real value.

Purchase errors. One way or another, but all people are wrong, and employees of the purchasing department are no exception. As the saying goes, if “every doctor has his own cemetery,” then every supplier has his own “extra zero”. From the point of view of scarcity, an error may be an inadequately small order, or a confused position that will never need so much, and for the position that has not been purchased as a result, there will be a severe deficit.

Solution: regulation and automation of the procurement business process. In addition to the obvious benefit from reducing the number of errors, and hence the resulting deficit, automation allows you to speed up the execution of many jobs and bring the solution of many logistics problems to a qualitatively new level of accuracy.

Lack of money. A common situation when a successful fast-growing company is constantly experiencing a shortage of money, and therefore products that it cannot buy.

Solution: only clear financial planning can help, at least strategic decisions about a significant increase in the range or large expenses that will not quickly return to the company. The goal is to prevent gaps in the company's liquidity, which can lead to a deficit and, as a result, a "growth strain", which often ends in the bankruptcy of such a successful company.

Output.

Scarcity is not that hard to count, at least in the first approximation. The effect of its reduction is felt instantly in the company's revenue. Therefore, enterprises that have begun to clearly consider the deficit and are trying to manage it are now less likely to experience a shortage in production and earn more in the same market than their competitors, who treat the shortage as an inevitable evil.

However, after reading this article, I do not want to have a persistent feeling that scarcity is always a bad thing. For example, in the company where I work now: http://vkusvill.ru/ - a deficit of 6% is initially included in the inventory management model. We are forced to do this, since all our dairy products are completely natural, and their shelf life is usually less than a week, and often takes, in general, 2-3 days. In this case, an attempt to ensure consumption at 100% leads to serious write-offs of expensive products in the cost of production, which can reach up to 30% of the sales volume! Therefore, it is cheaper for us to consciously maintain the deficit at 6% than to constantly write off such volumes at a loss.

Valery Razgulyaev

Reprinting and reposting of the article along with this text, an indication of the author, and links to the first

As you know, the market, in the economic sense of the word, operates according to certain rules and laws that regulate the price, shortage of goods or their surplus. These concepts are key and affect all other processes. What is a commodity deficit and surplus, as well as the mechanisms of their appearance and elimination are discussed below.

Basic concepts

The ideal situation in the market is that the number of goods offered for sale and the number of buyers who are ready to purchase it for a set price are the same. Such a correspondence of supply and demand is called the price, which is established under such conditions, is also called equilibrium. However, such a situation can occur only at a single moment in time, but it is not capable of persisting for a long period. The constant change in supply and demand due to many variable factors causes an increase in demand, then supply. This is how the phenomena called commodity deficit and surplus arise. The first concept defines the excess of demand over supply, and the second is the exact opposite.

Emergence and elimination of market-wide gaps

The main reason why at a certain point in time there is a shortage of goods is a sharp increase in demand, to which supply does not have time to respond. However, with non-interference in the process of the state or insurmountable specific factors (wars, natural disasters, natural disasters, etc.), the market is able to independently regulate this process. It looks like this:

1. Demand increases and there is a shortage of goods.
2. The equilibrium price rises, which pushes the manufacturer to increase production volumes.
3. The number of products on the market is increasing.
4. There is a commodity
5. The equilibrium price falls, which triggers a reduction in production.
6. The state of supply and demand is stabilizing.

Such processes occur on the market continuously and are part of the country's economic system. However, if there is a deviation from the above scheme, then regulation does not take place, the consequences can be very complex: constant and one group and the surplus of another, growing discontent among the population, the emergence of shadow schemes of production, supply and sale, etc.

An example from the recent past

Commodity shortages can also arise for reasons of excessive interference in market processes, which often occurs in a planned or command economy. A striking example of this is the lack of food and food products in the 1980s in the USSR. Too extensive, busy and completely non-flexible system of production and procurement planning, simultaneously with the growth of the well-being of the population and the availability of free funds, led to the fact that store shelves were empty, and huge queues were lined up for any product, if available. Manufacturers did not have time to meet the needs of the consumer, since they did not have the opportunity to quickly respond to demand - all processes were strictly subordinated to bureaucratic procedures that lasted too long and could not meet market requirements. Thus, for a fairly long period of time, a constant commodity deficit was established on the scale of the market throughout the country. It is difficult for the command economy to cope with this phenomenon due to the factors listed above, so the problem can be solved either by a complete restructuring of the system, or by changing it.

Phenomenon in microeconomics

A shortage of goods can arise not only on the scale of the economy of the entire country, but also at individual enterprises. It can also be both temporary and permanent, characterized by a shortage of finished products to cover the demand for it. But in contrast to macroeconomic processes at an enterprise, the balance of stocks and demand, on the contrary, depends on the quality of planning. However, the speed of production reaction to market changes is also important. At the microeconomic level, a commodity shortage has a number of consequences: a shortfall in profit, the likelihood of losing both permanent and potential buyers, and a deterioration in reputation.

The reasons and consequences of the surplus

The excess of the supply of any product or a whole group over the demand causes surplus. This phenomenon is also called surplus. The emergence of a surplus in a market economy is a natural process - a consequence of an imbalance - and is independently regulated in the following way:

1. Decreased demand or oversupply.
2. The emergence of a surplus.
3. Decrease in the market price.
4. Decreased production and supply.
5. Market price growth.
6. Stabilization of the state of supply and demand.

In a planned economy, surplus goods are the result of incorrect forecasting. Since such a system is unable to self-regulate due to excessive interference, the surplus can last long enough without the possibility of its settlement.

Enterprise-wide surplus

There is also a surplus within a single enterprise. Commodity shortages and surpluses in microeconomics are not regulated by the market, but "manually", i.e. using primarily planning and forecasting. If mistakes are made in these processes, then products not sold on time create surpluses that can lead to monetary losses. This is especially acute for grocery enterprises and others, the period for the sale of goods is short. Also, a surplus can cause significant harm to the financial stability of industries, whose products are seasonally dependent.

It is impossible to solve the problem of equilibrium between supply and demand once and for all, either on a national scale or within an individual enterprise. In addition, such a decision is not required, since deficit and surplus are important processes that, among other things, stimulate the development of the economy and production, as well as interstate trade and relations in the context of exports and imports.