Technology for making entrepreneurial decisions represents a sequence of actions combined into a logical system that analyzes alternative options and identifies the most effective, from the point of view of the goal, taking into account the potential capabilities of the entrepreneur and his company.

Each entrepreneur has his own individual decision-making technology.

The decision can be made on the basis of intuition. In this case, intuition is understood as unconscious knowledge obtained as a result of experience. This method is called intuitive. To use it, you need to have a lot of business experience.

However, it is important to test this decision by applying a real decision-making method. This method is based on logically interrelated and computationally grounded conclusions.

In practice, an entrepreneur uses both methods at the same time.

In essence, the combined method is real-intuitive. For a novice entrepreneur, the real method prevails in decision-making technology. For an experienced entrepreneur, a significant component of decision-making technology is an intuitive component.

Generalized technology for making an entrepreneurial decision

Rice. Diagram of technology for making an entrepreneurial decision

The first technological stage of decision-making is the acceptance of possible alternatives.

At the second stage, the entrepreneur conducts an understanding of the alternatives, in other words, identifies their essential features and logic.

At the third stage, for each project, requirements are identified that must be met for its implementation (the need for specific resources, technologies, funding, etc.).

At the fourth stage, specific actions necessary for the implementation of the project are determined (the form of raising funds, the procedure for the sale of funds, the procedure for implementing production, etc.). Here, an economic calculation is made on the cost estimate of these actions.

The fifth stage involves calculating the likely economic effect taking into account the justified worst case scenario.

At the sixth stage, the options for pessimistic and optimistic calculations of the economic effect are compared. This comparison shows the likely range of the possible effect.

At the seventh stage, the alternatives accepted for consideration are compared. This comparison is made for the entire set of identified early stages of qualitative and quantitative characteristics. This stage is technically the most difficult.

For example, one alternative promises the greatest economic impact, requires significantly more effort, and is more risky. In this case, an expert assessment of the appropriateness of the choice is possible. But other, more formalized options are also possible.

The final eighth stage is aimed at choosing one of the alternatives. It implies making a decision on the implementation of the chosen alternative. It should be noted that with an increase in the number of initial alternatives, the decision-making process on them becomes much more complicated.

Therefore, at the stage of acceptance for consideration of possible alternatives, one should strive to minimize their number. To do this, you should maximize the use of a priori information and intuition.

Usually, an experienced entrepreneur leaves 2-3 alternatives for further consideration at this stage. The last two steps always require a certain amount of intuition. From this it becomes clear that only constant practice in combination with theoretical training ensures the success of entrepreneurial activity.

Commercial information is a collection of information and data on the activities of an enterprise, its organizational structure, external and internal relations, production technologies and the range of products, as well as other points related to its activities.

What applies to commercial information

Without systematic and regular provision of the organization with various kinds of data, its work will become impossible. The following information is called commercial information:

• data on the external environment of the enterprise (market, legal regulations, also the activities of competitors);
• inside information (about production activities, reserves, as well as "bottlenecks");
• information about the consumers of the organization's products and services (their financial capabilities, as well as age, national, geographic composition, and so on);
• data on competitors, namely - the range of products, marketing techniques, as well as pricing policy;
• information about goods and services that are sold on the market (qualitative, quantitative composition, as well as cost);
• data on the market level of prices;
• information on the channels of sales and distribution of products, as well as the mechanisms for bringing them to the end supplier;
• promotional materials, as well as information about their effectiveness.

Main components

The following components of commercial information can be distinguished:

• business (refers to working with counterparties);
• scientific and technical (describes innovations and production technology);
• production (planned and actual indicators for production);
• managerial (organization of enterprise management);
• marketing (market information);
• financial (cash flows).

Dissemination of commercial information

Business information can be disseminated in two main ways:

• through periodicals - in the form of specialized magazines and catalogs (it should be noted that they need constant updating as the situation at the enterprise changes);
• by creating electronic databases that can contain both comprehensive information on each enterprise, and detailing in individual areas of their commercial activities.

It is important to understand that commercial information includes both publicly available and non-public data. The first include the contact information of the organization, the names of its leaders, directions of production and other activities, as well as information about some assets. As for closed data, they are determined by the organizational form of the enterprise (this can be information about loans, partnership agreements, production technologies, and so on) and are not subject to distribution.

Types of commercial information

The information of a commercial organization is divided into several types:

• open public data (this can include the registration and contact information of the organization, the types of its activities, as well as the range of products or the list of services provided and other points that the company's management does not consider necessary to hide);
• information intended for regulatory authorities (we are talking about various forms of reporting);
• only the direct management of the company has access to classified information, as well as a limited number of employees (meaning the production technology and materials used, contractual relations, as well as other information that is a trade secret).

The role of business information

Commercial information must be accurate and relevant to ensure the smooth operation of the enterprise, and especially its management level. It allows you to correctly assess the current situation and take appropriate measures. In modern conditions, commercial information acquires special value, because it is characterized by a number of advantages:

• makes it possible to constantly analyze the economic and production situation;
• used in drawing up plans, forecasts, as well as at the control stage; timely receipt of reliable information gives the organization a number of competitive advantages;
• allows you to find out the attitude towards the enterprise both on the part of customers and on the part of partners and competitors;
• constant monitoring of the situation in the internal and external environment;
• a sufficient amount of information about the company in the public domain improves its image and increases the level of trust;
• allows you to make timely adjustments to the strategic goals of the organization; reduces the risk of incurring losses.

Sources of obtaining commercial information

Commercial information can be obtained from the following sources:

• marketing research (can be conducted independently, and you can also use the information provided by partners and contractors);
• internal documentation of the company (various kinds of reporting, as well as current documents that are drawn up to confirm the performance of production operations);
• external sources (statistical information of special services, organizations and agencies, which is published in periodicals and is in the public domain).

Classification of commercial information

It should be noted that commercial information is rather heterogeneous. In this regard, the following classification was developed:

• By time:
  • retrospective (allows you to assess the situation that has developed in previous periods to adjust future plans);
  • current (gives an idea of ​​the current results of activities);
  • predictive (determines the expected state of the organization in future periods).
• Regarding the stage of making management decisions:
  • ascertaining (describes the current situation at the enterprise as a whole, as well as in its individual divisions);
  • explanatory (necessary to understand the factors that led to a particular situation);
  • planned (gives an idea of ​​the future state of the enterprise);
  • control (allows you to assess the compliance of the current indicators with the declared ones).
• By coverage:
  • general (contains data on the enterprise as a whole);
  • local (describes the state of individual structures and divisions of the organization).
• According to the purpose:
  • planned (used to determine future performance);
  • accounting (entered into documents to record the current state of affairs);
  • regulatory reference (used to bring production processes in line with the rules);
  • statistical (allows you to track the dynamics of indicators over the past few periods);
  • marketing (describes the market situation).
• By frequency of admission:
  • discrete (arrives at regular intervals);
  • episodic (arrives at a time, if necessary);
  • continuous (used to monitor the current situation).

Commercial information and trade secrets

There is a separate category of data that is not subject to dissemination, but can be used only by a limited circle of employees of the enterprise. We are talking about such a category as confidential commercial information. This is documented information, access to which is limited not only by the internal charter of the company, but also by legal regulations.

It should be noted that concepts such as commercial information and commercial secrets cannot be equated. The latter is protected by regulations. We can say that state legislation gives an entrepreneur the right to classify a number of information about the activities of his organization. This is due to the fact that the release of some data can cause serious material damage. Thus, we can say that a trade secret carries a certain value and benefit to an entrepreneur as long as it is unknown to third parties. At the same time, their concealment should not harm society.

Information constituting a commercial secret

The following categories of data can be classified as trade secrets:

• scientific and technical information (production technology, equipment design, inventions, patents, software products, methods of organizing work at the enterprise; technological plans);
• information of a technological nature (design drawings, chemical formulas, plans for the production and release of products);
• financial information (price formation algorithm, profit received from product sales, banking operations and financial flows);
• business information (terms of agreements and contracts, organizational issues, data on contractors, commercial correspondence).

What cannot be a trade secret

The following commercial information of a company cannot be classified:

• documents related to constituent entities, as well as registration and permits;
• accounting statements, which are submitted to tax and other regulatory authorities, as well as data proving solvency;
• information on the number, structure and composition of personnel, as well as the level of remuneration and compliance with its safety standards;
• data on the sale of products potentially dangerous to humans, as well as documents confirming compliance with antimonopoly legislation;
• data on whether officials are involved in business activities.

Protection of commercial information

In order to prevent the spread of confidential data, enterprises use certain means. The following protection can be provided for commercial information:

• development of certain instructions that explain to employees the features and rules for working with data;
• appointment of persons responsible for the preservation of commercial secrets;
• creation of a control system, in accordance with which employees will be admitted to certain data;
• a mandatory moment is the signing of documents on non-disclosure of commercial secrets with each of the employees;
• introduction of a system of additional incentives for employees who deal with classified data;
• automation of the information security system;
• continuous control by the management.

Unfair methods of obtaining commercial information

A set of data on the internal and external environment of the enterprise is commercial information. A number of enterprises may try to obtain it by unscrupulous methods:

• the dissemination of data by the employees themselves (knowingly or unintentionally);
• blackmailing management or employees who have access to the relevant data;
• provocative or leading questions during conferences or presentations;
• theft of documents;
• covert surveillance (independent, with the help of hired persons or by means of special equipment);
• poaching workers from a competing firm;
• bribery of employees;
• wiretapping or interception of messages.

conclusions

The use of commercial information largely determines the effective functioning of the company. This is a complete set of information about the activities of the enterprise, which is used by the head to make management decisions, as well as by external users in order to get acquainted with the organization.

It should be noted that commercial information can be either open (accessible to everyone without exception) or closed (which can only be used by a certain circle of people). At the same time, the legislation clearly regulates the list of data that cannot be classified. As for the concealment of certain facts, it should not harm society.

In order to protect commercial information in the organization, certain measures are taken. So, the circle of persons who have access to it is limited, and an agreement is signed with employees on the inadmissibility of disclosure. Liability is introduced for the release of confidential data. Automation of the information security system using modern computer technologies is a priority. However, management must also personally monitor this issue.

2.1. Sphere of making management decisions

The sphere of making entrepreneurial decisions should be understood as a set of factors influencing their adoption. They have spatial, organizational, legal and temporal boundaries. It is advisable to structure this area by dividing it into internal and external environments.

Internal environment- This is the spatial sphere of distribution of the direct influence of the entrepreneur. It is segmented. Its constituent segments are called internal variables. If an entrepreneur represents a firm, then all the factors that directly determine it will be the internal environment. The entrepreneur perceives the firm as a systemic structure. If one element of the system changes, then other elements of the system will also be subject to change.

This understanding of the firm makes it possible to define its management (from the point of view of the internal environment) as the activity of influencing one or several variables and adjusting other variables to this.

A clear understanding of internal variables is an important element of an entrepreneur's performance. The most important internal variable is the purpose of the firm. It must have quantitative characteristics. For example, the purpose of a company is to manufacture clothing for a specific purpose or specific models in a specific volume.

The second internal variable is production technology. Its choice is determined by the internal purpose of the firm.

The third internal variable is the organizational structure of the firm. Knowing the purpose and technology of production, it is possible to determine the structural units necessary to create optimal conditions for achieving the greatest economic effect and increasing the controllability of the production process. For each fragment of the resulting structure, corresponding responsibilities are assigned.

The fourth variable is staffing. This is a definition in each element of the structure of jobs and positions in their quantitative and qualitative aspects.

The fifth internal variable is personnel (workers who will take jobs).

There are two other elements to note that are not "purely" internal. They serve as a connecting role between the internal and external environment. These elements are the output of production and the market signal.

The result of production is a specific form of materialization of the goals of the entrepreneurial structure. It characterizes the quality of the internal environment, indicating the possibility of preserving it in its previous form, or dictates the need to make changes to it.

The market signal is practically an external factor, but "embedded" into the internal environment of the company, it provides feedback (consumer reaction to the product).

Thus, the internal environment can be fairly defined as the mechanism of the firm's life. In theory, this environment is called the socio-technical system.

It should be noted that the entrepreneur himself is an indispensable element of this system. He, in essence, represents its center, influencing all its elements.

External environment - the structural and spatial environment of the company. The firm represents an open system. Its internal environment is subject to changes under the influence of the external.

The external environment is a set of factors influencing the functioning of the business structure. These factors are heterogeneous. Some have a direct impact, others indirectly. In this regard, they are grouped as factors of direct and indirect impact.

Factors of direct influence directly affect the functioning of the firm. These include:

1) state bodies and their regulations and laws. It is imperative to "adapt" to them;
2) partners and partnerships. This factor is less powerful, since it can be changed at your discretion;
3) sources of power pressure (racketeers, extortionists, bribe-takers). The entrepreneur has to "adjust" to this factor as well;
4) competitors. Their behavior is necessarily taken into account in the activities of the entrepreneur;
5) the image of the company. This is the idea of ​​her in the external environment. May facilitate or complicate activities depending on the positive or negative perception of the firm;
6) trade unions. In Russian reality, they have not yet found their place, but on the whole their role in other countries is very important.

Indirect factors are those that influence the firm through other factors or under certain conditions. These include:

1) political factors;
2) scientific and technical achievements;
3) the state of the economy;
4) socio-cultural factors;
5) changes in the global market.

An entrepreneur needs to constantly analyze the dynamics of the external environment. This is a difficult and time consuming job. The difficulties of such an analysis lie in the high complexity of the structure of the analyzed factors; the level of their impact is different; some factors are characterized by constancy, while others are episodic impact; changes in the external environment are dynamic, often chaotic, and very rapid.

All of the above determines the complexity of entrepreneurial activity and indicates the need for special training in this area.

2.2. Technology for making entrepreneurial decisions

Technology for making entrepreneurial decisions presents a sequence of actions combined into a logical system that provides an analysis of alternative options and the identification of the most effective, from the point of view of the goal, taking into account the potential capabilities of the company.

Each entrepreneur has his own individual decision-making technology. The decision can be made on the basis of intuition. In this case, intuition is understood as unconscious knowledge obtained as a result of experience. This method is called intuitive. To use it, you need to have a lot of business experience.

However, the technology of decision-making is still based on a real method of decision-making. This method is based on logically interrelated and computationally grounded conclusions.

In practice, an entrepreneur uses both methods at the same time. In essence, the combined method is real-intuitive. For a novice entrepreneur, the real method prevails in decision-making technology. For an experienced entrepreneur, a significant component in decision-making technology is an intuitive component.

The generalized technology for making an entrepreneurial decision can be graphically represented in the form of a block diagram (Fig. 1).

Fig 1. Scheme of technology for making an entrepreneurial decision

The first technological stage of decision-making is the acceptance for consideration of possible alternatives (projects).

At the second stage, the entrepreneur conducts an understanding of the alternatives. In other words, it reveals their essential features and logic.

At the third stage, for each project, the requirements that must be met for its implementation are identified (the need for specific resources, technologies, funding, etc.).

At the fourth stage, specific actions necessary for the implementation of the project are determined (the form of raising funds, the procedure for selling funds, the procedure for implementing production, etc.). Here, an economic calculation is made on the cost estimate of these actions.

The fifth stage involves calculating the likely economic effect, taking into account the justified worst case scenario.

At the sixth stage, the options for pessimistic and optimistic calculations of the economic effect are compared. This comparison shows the likely range of the possible effect.

At the seventh stage, the projects accepted for consideration are compared. This comparison is made for the entire set of qualitative and quantitative characteristics identified at the early stages. This stage is technically the most difficult.

For example, one project promises the greatest economic effect, but requires significantly more resources and is more risky. In this case, an expert assessment of the appropriateness of the choice is possible. But other, more formalized options are also possible.

The final eighth stage is aimed at choosing one of the alternatives. It implies making a decision on the implementation of the chosen alternative.

It should be noted that with an increase in the number of initial alternatives, the decision-making process on them becomes much more complicated. Therefore, at the stage of acceptance for consideration of possible alternatives, one should strive to minimize their number. For this, a priori information and intuition should be used as much as possible.

Usually, an experienced entrepreneur leaves 2-3 alternatives for further consideration at this stage. The last two steps always require a certain amount of intuition. From this it becomes clear that only constant practice in combination with theoretical training ensures the success of entrepreneurial activity.

2.3. Economic methods of making entrepreneurial decisions

The basis of economic methods for making entrepreneurial decisions is the analysis of categories such as price, production costs, finance, and the ability to operate them in practice.

Formation of the price of goods... In this case, we mean the market price. The minimum level of this price can be determined by the following relationship:

C t = I pf -P md,

where C t is the price of the goods; And pf - actual production costs; Pmd is the minimum allowable profit.

Sometimes the price determined in this way acts as a wholesale price. Since this price is calculated for the most unfavorable variant of the market situation, it becomes a trade secret.

The purposefulness of an entrepreneur's performance on the market is determined by the fact that he manages to form the minimum acceptable price at a level below the market price.

The market price is the actual price at which the item is actually purchased. The difference between the market price and the minimum allowable price acts as excess profit

SP = Ts r-Ts md,

where SP is excess profit; C p - market price; Cmd is the minimum acceptable price.

The entrepreneur has the ability to control the pricing process when it comes to its minimum acceptable level. In this case, pricing management is associated with finding ways to minimize production costs.

The second method of influencing the pricing process involves analyzing the market price. In this case, the entrepreneur identifies which commodity characteristics are the basis of pricing, and how the price can change with any change in commodity characteristics. As a result, the commodity is given, whenever possible, characteristics that increase the market price to a greater extent than costs.

Production cost management.

A distinction should be made between economic and accounting costs. The entrepreneur mainly deals with economic costs. They are associated with the possible implementation of a project. Accounting refers to the costs actually incurred by the firm.

There is a time gap between the planning of costs and the moment of their implementation. In this regard, when planning costs, the entrepreneur uses the principle of "maximum possible costs". This is the opposite of the minimum price principle.

When considering economic costs, they usually operate with the concept of "gross costs".

Gross costs are a combination of fixed and variable costs

And shaft = And post + And lane.

Fixed costs are those that practically do not depend on production facilities. This includes depreciation costs, rents, loan fees, management salaries, etc.

Variable costs - those costs that are almost directly dependent on the volume of production. These include the cost of raw materials, materials, components; labor costs of workers directly involved in the production of goods, energy for technological needs, etc.

An important conclusion follows from these definitions: with an increase in production volumes, gross costs per unit of goods decrease, and vice versa.

Consequently, an increase in production volumes, all other things being equal, entails an increase in the profitability of production. This effect can be used as a means of increasing profits or as a reserve for reducing the price of an additional product.

In conditions of risky delivery of goods to the market, when the level of demand is not precisely known (for example, for a seasonal product), the entrepreneur takes 75% of the actual production volume as the estimated volume. The remaining 25% is planned as additional manufactured goods. If they are not sold during the season, they can be sold during the seasonal sale at a lower price, up to the level of variable costs.

The difference between the price of a good and the amount of costs is called the amount of coverage for the good. It is the amount of funds, part of which goes to cover fixed costs, and the rest - to profit.

Determining the boundaries of the volume of production... The minimum allowable production volume is the breakeven production level. This is a production program in which costs are covered by income.

It is always important for an entrepreneur to determine for himself the acceptable production boundaries - the minimum permissible and the maximum possible. This is due to the level of market demand.

The maximum possible production is determined using the production function

K m = f(T, K),

where K m is the maximum possible volume of production; T - resources used in production; K - capital used in production.

This feature is always technology-specific. If the technology changes, then the function also changes. f.

But it is important for an entrepreneur to determine not only the possible limits of production, but also its optimal volume.

Optimal is understood as a volume of production at which the difference between the income received and the total costs is minimal.

The search for the optimal option in practice is carried out in two versions - with a given amount of capital and with unlimited capital.

In the first case, if we mean by fixed capital the equipment necessary for the normal implementation of the production process, then the optimal volume of production is related to capacity. Consequently, based on the desire to reduce unit fixed costs, the optimal volume of production will be equal to the derivative of power.

This approach is typical for a budding entrepreneur.

The highest level of production efficiency will be achieved with a certain combination of production volume and costs. If we consider for simplification two factors of production - capital and labor, then the share of each factor will account for a certain share of the other.

For example, to maintain 5 machines, you need 10 workers, and for 10 machines - 20. This can be displayed as a graphical dependency. Moreover, it is advisable to represent this dependence in value form.

Considering that there are options for purchasing expensive manufactured equipment and cheap productive equipment, this will lead to different labor costs. Considering several options, they decide on the best.

In the case of determining the volume of production with an unlimited amount of capital, the reasoning is similar. However, not two, but three factors should be considered:

1) the possible volume of production;
2) the required amount of capital costs;
3) the required amount of labor costs.

The calculations made are summarized in a table and an option with minimal costs is selected.

The economically optimal production volume is determined on the basis of marginal costs.

An increase in production also causes an increase in costs. This growth is not always proportional to the volume of production. In this case, the following selection rules apply:

1) determine the average gross costs per unit of production;
2) the decision in the direction of increasing the volume is chosen if the marginal costs of additionally produced goods are less than or equal to the average gross;
3) it is necessary to refuse to increase the volume of production if the opposite picture 2 takes place;
4) calculate the average gross costs to the new volume of production.

Control questions

1. What is the internal business environment?
2. What are the basic components of the internal environment of the company?
3. Methods for making business decisions.
4. What is the technology of decision making

Previous

Commercial solution methodology is a logical organization of activities for the development of a commercial solution, including the formulation of a management goal, a choice of methods for developing solutions, criteria for evaluating options, drawing up logical schemes for performing operations.

Methods for developing management decisions include methods and techniques for performing operations required in the development of commercial solutions. These include ways of analyzing, processing information, choosing options for action, etc.

Organization of the development of a commercial solution involves streamlining the activities of individual departments and individual employees in the process of developing a solution. The organization is carried out through regulations, standards, organizational requirements, instructions, responsibility.

Commercial solution development technology- a variant of the sequence of operations for developing a solution, selected according to the criteria of the rationality of their implementation, the use of special equipment, the qualifications of personnel, and the specific conditions for performing the work.

The quality of the commercial solution - a set of properties possessed by a commercial solution that meet, to one degree or another, the needs of successful problem resolution.

The object of making a commercial decision is multifaceted activity of the enterprise, regardless of its form of ownership. In particular, the following activities are the subject of decision-making:

technical development;

organization of main and auxiliary production;

marketing activities;

economic and financial development;

organization of wages and bonuses;

social development;

control;

accounting activities;

staffing;

other activities.

The correctness and effectiveness of the decision made is largely determined by the quality of economic, organizational, social and other types of information. Conventionally, all types of information that are used when making a decision can be subdivided:

to incoming and outgoing;

processed and unprocessed;

text and graphic;

constant and variable;

normative, analytical, statistical;

primary and secondary;

directive, distribution, reporting.

The value of the information received depends on the accuracy of the task, since a correctly formulated task predetermines the need for specific information for making a decision.

Decision-making is inherent in any type of activity, and the performance of one person, a group of people or the entire people of a particular state may depend on it. From an economic and managerial point of view, decision making should be considered as a factor in increasing production efficiency. Production efficiency, of course, in each specific case depends on the quality of the decision.

All decisions made in any field of activity can be conditionally classified and subdivided into decisions: according to the strategy of the enterprise; arrived; sales; issues affecting the formation of profits.

Making a decision, as a rule, involves choosing a direction of action, and if a decision is made easily, without a special study of alternatives, then it is difficult to make a good decision.

Several stages precede making a decision:

the occurrence of problems for which a decision must be made;

selection of criteria by which a decision will be made;

development and formulation of alternatives;

selection of the optimal alternative from their sets;

approval (adoption) of a decision;

organization of work on the implementation of the solution - feedback

To the criteria

Determination of the degree of ability of the applied organizational structure of management to ensure the receipt of the rate of return.

Degree of the ability of the existing management structure to create conditions for increasing the rate of return

The degree of ability to respond quickly to changes in demand and take action accordingly.

The degree of ability of the organizational structure of management to ensure the growth of labor productivity due to the detailed specialization of social labor and production.

The degree of efficiency of the production control system for a given organizational structure of management.

The object for the emergence of problems can serve as the final indicators of the commercial activity of the enterprise. For example, as a result of the activity of the enterprise, the indicators of the final results of work began to deteriorate sharply (an increase in the cost of production, a decrease in the growth of labor productivity and its quality, profit and profitability); and also there were conflict situations, high staff turnover.

There are a great variety of decision-making methods, for example, systemic, analytical, field comparisons, pairwise comparisons, statistical, expert, etc. Let's take a look at some of them.

Nowadays, the word "systemic" is widely used in a wide variety of combinations. In engineering systems, they talk about systems engineering, systems analysis, system project management, system design of organizations, etc. are known. Obviously, the origin of the word "systemic" is largely related to the ideas of general systems theory and cybernetics.

The basic concepts commonly used in the systems approach are system, process, input, output, feedback, constraints. These concepts are applied to systems of a very different nature. In the processes of selecting a project for a unique object, developing a plan, etc. you can also select the relevant systems (and in them - subsystems), understand their relationship with other systems, determine the input (input information), output (solution), feedback (solution analysis) and constraints (resource, labor, etc.) ... As a result, systems are distinguished that solve certain problems.

What is usually understood by the words "systems approach"? To answer this question, let us consider the available recommendations for a "systemic" solution to problems of different nature.

In accordance with the approach of systems engineering, the following stages of solving the problem are distinguished:

clarification of the task and the choice of the goal;

enumeration or invention of alternatives;

analysis of alternatives;

choosing the best solution;

presentation of results.

In the systems analysis and operations research approach, five logical elements are usually distinguished:

highlight a goal or a set of goals;

highlight alternative means of achieving goals;

determine the resources to use each system;

to build a mathematical (in the operations research approach) or logical (which happens more often in the systems analysis approach) model, i.e. a series of dependencies between goals, alternative means of achieving them, environment and resources;

determine the criterion for choosing the preferred alternative.

In the process of forming decisions in an organization using a systematic approach, the following stages can be distinguished:

defining the goals of the organization;

identifying problems in the process of achieving these goals;

problem research and diagnosis;

search for a solution to the problem;

evaluation of all alternatives and selection of the best one;

coordination of decisions in the organization;

approval of decisions;

preparation for putting decisions into action;

solution application management;

efficiency check.

Figure 1 reflects that general definition of a clear sequence of actions, taking into account goals and means, highlighting and sequential consideration of alternative options for solving problems, striving for a rational choice between them.

Rice. 3. The RBM process based on a systems approach

So, a systematic approach to solving problems of a different nature from a utilitarian point of view is associated with the separation of the system from the external environment and the definition of a set of sequential, logical steps in considering the problem. Let's call these features the general scheme of the systems approach.

What is the difference between systemic approaches designed to solve various problems? First of all, by means of analytical comparison of alternatives. So, for example, in systems engineering, standard methods are used for calculating various classes of technical systems (electronic circuits, automatic control systems, etc.). When using the operations research approach, there is a whole class of methods: mathematical programming, probabilistic, network planning, etc. The systems analysis approach uses primarily the cost-effectiveness method.

There are examples when the general scheme of the systems approach is used to solve complex problems without special methods of analytical comparison of alternatives. Recently, the general scheme of the systems approach has become very popular. It is difficult to find a problem in solving which it would not be recommended to use a systematic approach.

When faced with complex human problems, the seeming universality of the sequence of stages also collapses. Identifying goals and defining problems depends on the general idea of ​​the solution, i.e. from choosing one of the alternatives. We can consistently expand the range of problems under consideration until, based on the knowledge of our aspirations, capabilities and resources, we do not have a glimpse of setting the entire task in the most rational way.

On the one hand, the pragmatic capabilities of the general scheme (list of stages) of the systems approach are rather modest. On the other hand, the educational value of the ideas of the systems approach seems to be very valuable. In shaping your thinking, ideas for a sequential, step-by-step approach to solving complex problems can be helpful.

Analytical methods

These methods are based on the work of a manager or a specialist with a set of analytical dependencies. They determine the relationship between the conditions of the task and its results in the form of formulas, graphs, logical relationships, for example, "The quieter you go, the further you will be." “You drive more quietly” is a condition, and “you will continue” is the result. In the activities of organizations there are many typical dependencies that are objective in nature: the relationship between demand and supply, the life cycle of products on time, labor productivity on the qualifications of personnel, management style on the nature of the company's activities, the quality of SD on the completeness and value of information, etc. Each manager has a certain set of such dependencies, developed intuitively over a number of years or obtained as a result of training. Many effective addictions remain unknown to a number of managers. Sometimes you have to find effective dependencies through trial and error, wasting resources unnecessarily. A large set of valuable dependencies are usually declared confidential by a particular organization. In the age of universal informatization, the sale of new developments in the field of RHR is gradually becoming part of the business.

Figure 4. the character of the graphical dependence of the growth of labor productivity on the material incentives of workers is given.

100% Labor productivity

Material incentives

Fig. 4 Graphical dependence of labor productivity growth.

The growth in labor productivity is explained by an increase in the degree of satisfaction of the basic needs of the employee. The size of the growth area strongly depends on the number of satisfied needs and interests from both material and moral incentives. The area of ​​stabilization is determined by the employee reaching the physical load limit. The area of ​​decline is explained by a decrease in the quality of work in pursuit of an increase in material incentives.

These methods are based on the theory of probability, the theory of Markov processes, and the theory of queuing.

Sequential comparison (sorting) method

The method includes "the following operations:

• 1. A list of decision signs is compiled.
• 2. The list is written into the table in decreasing order of importance.
• 3. For each feature, the table records the assessment of the implementation of each feature for all decisions - the maximum grade is 5 (see an example in Table 1.).
• 4. For each column, the sum of the products of the assessment by the corresponding coefficient of the sign's significance is found. 5. The obtained values ​​are sorted by the maximum value of the sum and the preferred solution is determined. According to the example, the preferred option has solution No. 2 with a total of 14.1 points.

Table 1... Feature estimates for each solution

	Sign	Assessment of implementation
	Name	Significance coefficient	Decision no.
	Implementation time
	Financial expenses
	Increased sales
	The amount of additional profit
	Product quality

Pairwise comparison method (pairwise sorting)

The method is implemented by paired comparisons of the features of each SD and further statistical processing of the SD (Fig. 5). On the diagram UR1 - UR5 - variants of UR, compared by a set of their features.

Final choice

To carry out paired comparisons according to the above scheme, SDs are written in a row in any order. Then the experts compare the first two SDs, the best of them is compared with the third SD, etc. As a result of paired comparisons, one best SD is selected.

Typical scenario. The scenario method is a set of forecasts for each considered decision, its implementation, as well as possible positive and negative consequences. Scenarios for each solution are usually recorded on paper, in computer memory, on magnetic tape. They resemble literary scripts with a prologue, body and epilogue.

The scenarios of all performances, in fact, also present predictions of solutions to unusual or classic life problems, with the audience playing the role of arbiters. Performances with poor choices are failures and are usually not saved by the talented acting of the actors.

Scenario for UR. When developing, choosing or implementing SD, the scenario method is performed as follows (Fig. 6.):

• * The head of the department makes a detailed description of the assignment: goals, current situation and problem;
• * one of the experienced workers is instructed to develop options for solving the problem;
• * a specialist who also has literary abilities is given the task to draw up a scenario for the possible passage of a solution and expected results, as well as reactions to these results of interested specialists; I
• * the text of the script is sent to all employees who, at various stages, must take part in the development and implementation of the solution;
• * A meeting is convened to discuss the scenario. There are three options for the results of the discussion:

full approval of the scenario and approval of the technology for developing and implementing the solution, making adjustments to it, approving the technology for developing and implementing the solution, obvious disagreement and reworking the scenario;

drawing up the final script for entry into the company database.

The structure of the script consists of a content part and quantitative parameters. It is recommended to include in the content:

• * the history of the development of the object of management;
• * the situation that led to the need for RRD, and historical parallels in solving similar problems;

* the goal arising from the initiating situation;

• * actors external and internal for the organization of the environment;
• * psychological conflict between participants in the internal and external environment;
• * a list of technical and social problems based on the goal;
• * solutions for each problem;
• * possible results.

Rice. 6. The structure of the content part of the script

Conditions for the effectiveness of the method. For management decisions, the ratio of the volume of meaningful and quantitative information should be approximately 70% and 30%. A significant predominance of content-based information (more than 80%) reduces the probative value of the scenario. Similarly, a significant predominance of quantitative information (more than 40%) reduces the emotional impact of the script on the relevant specialist.

The scenario method refers to complex methods for the development, selection and implementation of SD. The use of the scripting method is effective in developing SD for:

• * a large group of people or companies (for several hundred people or companies);
• * people with different mentality, religion, life values ​​(the visibility of the script method largely unites people's assessments);
• * pessimists or people who are hostile to the leader or the company;
• * humanities, for whom presentation is more important than calculations.

A feature of these methods is that they have the attributive property of project activities, being aimed at justifying the choice of the optimal alternative in decision-making.

Balance, normative and morphological methods play a corresponding role in the implementation of the function of designing research programs.

Normative method involves the use of norms and standards in making management decisions.

On the basis of specially developed benchmarks, the level of marginal sufficiency in the resource provision of various sections of the program being implemented is determined, commensurate with the professional needs of the members of the working group, as well as the subject's ability to achieve the set goals and objectives.

Taking into account the standards, budgets of all levels are formed, the amount of subsidies and transfers is determined, the amount of funding submitted to the competition commissions of projects and programs is calculated.

From the point of view of the way of expression, quantitative and qualitative norms can be distinguished.

Quantitative norms (standards) have, as a rule, the form of restrictions on the minimum, average and maximum values.

Qualitative norms are expressed in the form of prescriptions and legislative acts defining patterns of behavior authorized in a given situation.

The use of the normative method allows you to narrow the range of all possible alternatives, closing their list for compliance with the accepted standards.

Usage balance method allows you to determine the optimal ratio between income and expenditure items of the program budget. Establishing balances in the consumption of material resources makes it possible to maintain proportions in the distribution of funding between different sections of the program.

When using the balance sheet method, the equality of the totals obtained as a result of various comparisons is taken into account.

Thus, it is possible to form an optimal budget structure based on an assessment of the structure of software investment, the degree of investment risk and the proportionality of budgetary injections over a given period.

Idea morphological analysis in relation to the search solution of problems was expressed by the Swiss researcher F. Zwicky in 1942.

As a design method, morphological analysis is focused on identifying optimal solutions based on many combinations of properties of the design object. The application of morphological forecasting is possible in a wide range, from the analysis of narrow technical problems to the field of social research, where the problem of choice is most acute. This makes the use of the morphological method very relevant for the analysis of modern problems.

The essence of the method lies in a comprehensive study of the designed object from the point of view of determining possible design options.

Then, by enumerating all the possibilities within the framework of the developed abstract morphological model, optimal combinations of possible solutions and a technically feasible design direction are found.

Zwicky directed researchers in the field of technical knowledge to a scrupulous study of the principles of operation of various technical devices that logically contain separate, relatively independent groups of variables.

Zwicky's method is based on the premise that any technical problem can be decomposed in the form of the so-called morphological box, composed of a logically connected chain of elements.

The analysis is considered complete if in each department of this box one solution will be executed in the case of a positive solution to the problem situation, or more than one - in the case of a negative solution.

This makes it possible to build a logically verified scheme for forecasting a problem situation on the basis of a thorough knowledge of the constituent elements of this situation.

The most important criterion in making effective decisions, closely related to the possibility of its practical application, is also the direction of the decision from the bottom up, which allows not only to achieve the implementation of the decision, but also to create a long-term mechanism for the reproduction of such decisions in the future.

A clear evidence of the application of such a solution method is the technique "Ringisho", widely used in the practice of Japanese management. The decision-making mechanism in accordance with this methodology assumes the initial formulation of this decision on the lower and middle floors of the management pyramid. Such a decision can be formulated both by the employee himself and suggested to him from above.

Carrying out the work on bringing the decision to its final stage, the employee is obliged to coordinate it with his colleagues, who will have to participate if this decision is made. After that, the option of such a solution passes through all the above levels of the management pyramid, where managers not only get acquainted with the proposal, but also express their opinion, putting a personal signature in a specially designated place for this.

If this decision is made by the top management, the decision is returned to the employee in the form of an order or order.

Thus, the preparation and selection of effective solutions is carried out, which allows not only to select the most valuable solution for a given period, but also to minimize the likelihood of a recurring manifestation of a problem situation, to overcome which this decision was made.

Questions for control

• 1. Give a definition of the concept of "economic efficiency".
• 2. What are the main indicators for assessing the effectiveness of economic activity.
• 3. What are the indicators of investment performance?
• 4. What algorithm is used to make effective decisions?
• 5. The essence of the risk and its assessment.
• 6. Name the methods used to make effective decisions.