What is long-term budget planning. Transition from a short-term to a long-term budget planning period. Long-term budget strategy

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The article deals with the development and implementation of long-term budget planning in the Russian Federation. Despite the advantages of long-term plans and forecasts, the calculations of the main indices and indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation are carried out under conditions of uncertainty in the dynamics of energy prices and exacerbation of external risks. The innovations in the development of the budget strategy until 2030, the factors limiting the growth of budget revenues are considered. The need to transform the system has been substantiated government controlled and introducing monitoring of the fulfillment of the budget strategy obligations. The process of developing a long-term budgetary strategy is considered, which goes as follows: first, analytical activities are carried out current state economy and the dynamics of socio-economic development over the past few years, then work begins with indicators of budget execution (consolidated budgets) over the past few years, then certain trends and priorities of budgetary policy are identified, the main factors of inconsistency between the forecasted indicators and real indicators for the analyzed period. After the operations carried out, a draft long-term budgetary strategy of the state is being developed, which is based on the socio-economic state of the economy and is focused on achieving the set strategic goals, enshrined in the strategies of socio-economic development.

budget planning

forecasting

budget strategy

monitoring

1. State Program of the Russian Federation "Public Finance Management" of 2013.

2. Grudinova IP, Risk management of financial and budgetary development of the region (municipality) / I.P. Grudinova, N.V. Perko. - M.: Vestnik MGTU, 2012. - No. 1. - v. 15. - 170s.

3. Klimov V.V., On the formation of a budgetary strategy at the regional and municipal level / V.V. Klimov, A.A. Mikhailova. - M.: Finance. - 2011. - No. 2. - 56p.

4. Lisin NV, Formation of the budgetary strategy of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation. - M.: BelSU - 2012 .-- 49p.

5. Draft Budget Strategy for the period up to 2023.

The main task of long-term budget planning is to coordinate the priorities of the budget policy pursued with the goal of achieving long-term sustainable economic growth, as well as improving the level and quality of life of the population. Long-term budget planning helps to reduce the risks of fiscal sustainability in the face of unfavorable long-term trends.

In Russia, the main problem of fiscal sustainability is the demographic situation (aging of the population) and the "raw material trap" (dependence of the economy on the raw materials sector and external market conditions). Long-term planning allows you to formulate priority tasks, assess the resources required for their implementation and identify possible sources of these resources. Same given view planning helps to justify the need for structural reforms in the budget sector and a balanced approach to their implementation. Long-term planning helps to curb unreasonable growth, increase the effectiveness and efficiency of budget spending.

The State Program of the Russian Federation "Public Finance Management", the goals of which are to ensure the long-term stability of the budget system and the balance of budgets, improve the quality of public finance management, consists of 9 subprograms, one of which is long-term financial planning. The main results of the named subprogram are: 1) development of a long-term budgetary strategy of the Russian Federation; 2) monitoring the implementation and application of the "budget rule". The first result is expressed in the development of a methodology for the formation of the principles of long-term budget planning. The combination of adaptability of budget policy instruments and increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures will lead to implementation long-term liabilities and ensuring balanced budgets.

Monitoring consists in tracking the level of real oil prices and the "base" oil price. When a situation arises when the “base” price is lower than the real one, the surplus of revenues from the oil and gas sector is directed to the Reserve Fund.

The risks of external influence are most typical for this subprogram. These include fluctuations in oil prices, a drop in demand for oil and gas products, etc. For example, the decline in the price of Urals oil by 10 percentage points. entails a decrease in federal budget revenues in the amount of more than 1% of GDP. With oil prices up to $ 60 per barrel, the volume of the Reserve Fund can finance the lack of income for 2 years.

The calculation of the main indices and indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, used in drawing up the strategy for budgetary development until 2023, was carried out based on the goals of economic policy defined by the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation.

The forecast of revenues of the budgetary system in the budgetary strategy was built for the duration of the budgetary strategy and in more than one version. For example, in one of the first editions of the Budget Strategy for the period up to 2030, three scenarios were developed for different levels of Urals oil prices. One of the innovations in the 2030 Fiscal Strategy is the application of a new fiscal rule. This rule came into effect in 2013. By itself, the term “budget rule” means that budget expenditures should be formed depending on oil prices over the past years (not relying on forecasts).

One of the current obstacles to the immediate implementation of the Long-term budget strategy until 2030 is the annexation of Crimea to the Russian Federation, which entailed an increase in the territory and population. Disagreements arose between the Ministry of Economic Development (opinion on easing the budget rule) and the Ministry of Finance (opinion on finding resources without changing the budget rule).

The development of the economy in the forecast period will be associated with a negative demographic situation and a decrease in the share of the working-age population from 62.9% (2009) to 53% (2023). In connection with a decrease in this indicator, the unemployment rate will also decrease, which is projected at less than 3%. Under conditions of labor shortage, the share of real wages in GDP will grow from 25% (2008) to 29% (2023).

Urals oil prices are forecast to rise to $ 106 / bbl by 2023. Average annual growth rates of hydrocarbon production will increase by 0.5% for oil and 1.9% for gas. It is planned that the export of oil will not change, while the export of natural gas will increase by about 3% per year.

For the transition to a new system of long-term budget planning, measures are required to transform the system of public administration: 1) inventory of budgetary obligations - refusal to finance those activities that hinder sustainable economic growth; 2) development and implementation of a system for the distribution of budgetary funds according to subordinate programs that solve especially important social and economic problems; 3) improving the system of state and municipal procurement; 4) transition to division by budgetary institutions new type, autonomous and state institutions. As a result, a reduction in the public sector and an increase in the efficiency of its activities.

The process of developing a long-term budgetary strategy is as follows: first, the analytical activity of the current state of the economy and the dynamics of socio-economic development over the past few years is carried out. Further, work begins with indicators of budget execution (consolidated budgets) over the past few years, certain trends and priorities of budgetary policy are identified, and the main factors of discrepancy between projected indicators and real indicators for the analyzed period are determined. After the operations carried out, a draft long-term budgetary strategy of the state is being developed, which is based on the socio-economic state of the economy and is focused on achieving the set strategic goals, enshrined in the strategies of socio-economic development.

Any project, adopted both at the federal and at any other level, must have certain results. To assess them, it is necessary to monitor the implementation of the budgetary strategy of the country and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. A budgetary strategy is effective only when all its obligations are fulfilled and financed.

Bibliographic reference

Bondarenko D.S. PROBLEMS OF LONG-TERM BUDGET PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY // International Student Scientific Bulletin. - 2016. - No. 2 .;
URL: http://eduherald.ru/ru/article/view?id=15138 (date accessed: 03/25/2020). We bring to your attention the journals published by the "Academy of Natural Sciences"

Sergey Georgievich KHABAEV, Head of the Research Laboratory "Research of Problems of Public Finance", RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation, Doctor of Economics D.: "The need to implement long-term budget planning has been actively discussed in Russia over the past few years. The first steps in this direction began to be taken in 2008, when a draft budget strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2023 was developed and adopted guidelines on long-term planning of budget expenditures, which determined the general approach to making long-term forecasts of budget expenditures. "

The Ministry of Finance of Russia has identified the following methods for forecasting expenditures for the long term:

Inertial planning method. The method assumes that the composition of expenses of the type under consideration remains in the future as a whole unchanged. When using this method, for each of the types of expenses, it is necessary to set the dynamics of the corresponding indices (decrease, preservation or growth in real terms);

The normative way of planning. The method assumes that costs are determined on the basis of standards approved in the relevant regulatory legal acts, taking into account changes in quantitative factors that affect costs;

Targeted planning method. The method implies a target approach to cost planning, that is, target indicators and their values ​​to be achieved, as well as activities and costs to achieve them, must be set;

Other planning methods. These methods include, among other things, the implementation of reforms in the industry, concerning both the principles of service delivery and the financing mechanisms. At the same time, it is recommended to determine the forecast of budget expenditures in planning periods separately according to the budget of the existing and the budget of the assumed obligations.

The presented approaches allow us to speak about the weak methodological elaboration of the methods of long-term forecasting of budget expenditures today. The problems of introducing long-term budget planning in the Russian Federation include the existing system for forecasting the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. This conclusion is based on the experience of implementing budget planning for the medium term. Interrelation of forecasts and medium-term financial plan still has a predominantly declarative character. The explanation for this situation is the fact that the practice of forecasting in modern conditions still poorly worked out not only at the level of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, but also at the level of the federal government.

The validity and reliability of the forecast are the most important conditions for drawing up long-term goals and objectives of the development of society, developing programs for their implementation, determining ways and means of achieving the final result. Mechanisms for determining forecast indicators are an integral part of long-term budget planning, since they substantiate the prerequisites for adopting management decisions for the long term. In this regard, the analysis of the existing foreign experience in the field of budget forecasting and adaptation of this experience for implementation in the budgetary process of the Russian Federation.

In the same 2008, by the order of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 17, 2008 No. 1662-r, the Concept of the long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020 was approved. However, this document does not contain a section on financial security achieving the outlined strategic goals and solving the assigned tasks. A similar situation has developed with the strategies of social and economic development of federal districts until 2020 approved by the Government of the Russian Federation.

The global financial crisis has postponed the solution to this issue. At the same time, the task of transition to long-term budget planning has not lost its relevance, as evidenced by the last Budget Address of the President of the Russian Federation, where it is noted that, along with the implementation of the program budget, it is necessary to pay attention to the validity of mechanisms for the implementation and resource provision of state programs, their correlation with long-term goals of social and economic policy of the state. The instrument of such a correlation should be the budgetary strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, which determines the main features of the budgetary policy under different options development of the Russian and world economy. In addition, according to the Main Directions of Fiscal Policy for 2013 and the planning period of 2014 and 2015, the main objectives of the fiscal policy for 2013 include the development of a long-term budget strategy for the period up to 2030.

Long-term financial planning

Currently, a number of state programs have been adopted, the responsible executor for which is the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. In particular, one of these state programs is the state program of the Russian Federation "Public Finance Management" approved by the order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated March 4, 2013 No. 293-r. Within the framework of this state program, the subprogram "Long-term financial planning" has been adopted. The purpose of the subroutine is to create optimal conditions to ensure long-term balance and sustainability of the federal budget. The tasks of the subroutine include:

Reducing the dependence of the federal budget on oil and gas revenues;

Improving the system for identifying reserves for increasing the revenue base of the federal budget and ways to mobilize them;

Achievement of optimal, sustainable and economically justified correspondence of expenditure obligations of the federal budget to the sources of their financial support.

Expected results of the implementation of the "Long-term financial planning" subprogram:

Formation of the federal budget within the framework and taking into account the long-term forecast of the parameters of the budget system, which ensures stability, predictability of budgetary policy, and the fulfillment of expenditure obligations;

Maintaining the stability of the federal budget without increasing public debt and applying fiscal consolidation measures for a three-year budget cycle in the event of a drop in oil prices to $ 80 per barrel;

Formation of expenditures in accordance with the maximum expenditures of the federal budget ("ceilings" of expenditures) for the implementation of state programs of the Russian Federation for a period of at least eight years.

The indicator of the implementation of the subprogram is the presence of a long-term (for a period of at least 12 years) budgetary strategy.

Long-term budget strategy

The long-term budgetary strategy, the development of which will be carried out in 2013, should be a document that includes a long-term (for a period of more than 12 years) forecast of the main parameters of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation, factors and conditions for the formation and implementation of the main directions of budgetary policy, the main parameters of financial support of state programs of the Russian Federation, taking into account the goals, parameters and conditions of the country's socio-economic development in the long term. The main goal of a long-term budget strategy will be to determine financial capabilities, conditions and prerequisites for achieving key goals and results. public policy formulated in the long-term strategy of socio-economic development, other strategic documents, and increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures.

A long-term budget strategy should contain:

The main parameters of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation (with the allocation of the federal budget, the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the budgets of state extra-budgetary funds), the level of state and municipal debt;

The main provisions of the budgetary, debt and tax policy of the Russian Federation in the long term;

Maximum volumes ("ceilings") of expenditures for the implementation of state programs of the Russian Federation (for a period of up to 12 years);

Conditions and parameters characterizing risks for the budgetary system, the formation and justification of measures to prevent (minimize) them.

The development of a long-term budgetary strategy and its inclusion in the composition of budget planning documents since 2014 indicate the beginning of the transition from medium-term to long-term financial planning... Long-term budget planning is supposed to be carried out in a "rolling period" format. This format includes:

Annual adjustment of the long-term budgetary strategy (without changing its time horizons) when developing the draft federal budget for the next financial year and planning period;

Extension of the horizon of "ceilings" of expenditures for the implementation of state programs of the Russian Federation for three years every three years (with the reapproval of state programs of the Russian Federation every six years for a new 12-year period);

Approval of a new long-term budgetary strategy every six years with the extension of the horizon for determining the main parameters of the budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation for six years.

Within the framework of the long-term budgetary strategy, it is planned to determine the maximum expenditure volumes (“ceilings” of expenditures) for each state program. "Ceilings" of expenditures for state programs will be formed in two versions - basic and additional. At the same time, the requirements for the additional option of “ceilings” of expenses are determined: firstly, it should not have “lasting” costs, and secondly, higher than in the base case, the values ​​of indicators and qualitative characteristics of achieving goals should be ensured and the results of socio-economic development. The presented approach strictly interconnects the change in the amount of funds allocated to the state program, with a change in the indicators and qualitative characteristics of achieving goals defined in it.

The introduction of long-term budget planning will require appropriate information support, which will allow obtaining the necessary data for the formation of forecasts, projections and continuous monitoring and forecasting of parameters that determine the long-term sustainability of the federal budget. The basis of the information support system should be the state integrated Information system public finance management "Electronic budget".

Long-term budget planning issues are also considered in the draft Program for improving the efficiency of public (state and municipal) finance management for the period up to 2018. One of the ways to improve the efficiency of public finance management is the relationship of budget planning documents with documents. strategic planning... Currently, the State Duma is considering a draft federal law "On State Strategic Planning". It contains a list of documents of state strategic planning, which include the long-term budgetary strategy of the Russian Federation. The formation of a long-term budgetary strategy according to this document should be carried out taking into account:

Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation based on a strategic forecast;

Forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term;

Long-term national security strategy of the Russian Federation;

Budget messages of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly, acts of the President of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Russian Federation.

Long-term budgetary strategy of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation

Along with the documents of state strategic planning developed at the federal level, it is planned to develop similar documents at the level of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the list of which includes the long-term budgetary strategy of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Therefore, in the near future the regions will face the task of developing such a document. Several constituent entities of the Russian Federation have already adopted budget strategies for the long term. These are the Bryansk region, where a long-term budget strategy for the period up to 2020 was approved, the Kamchatka Territory with a budget strategy until 2023, and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, in which a long-term budget strategy was approved until 2030. The formation of long-term budget strategies was carried out within the framework of programs for increasing the efficiency of budget expenditures adopted in these constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Analysis of the content of these strategies revealed their certain drawbacks. First, most of the material in the strategies under consideration is devoted to the analysis of the current situation in the field of public finance region. Secondly, only in the budget strategy of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug are the threats to budgetary stability in the conditions of unfavorable long-term trends identified. Risks in the budgetary strategy of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug are classified into external and internal. External risks include:

Falling world prices for hydrocarbons;

Development of the debt crisis in the euro area;

Financial Consolidation in the USA;

Slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese economy;

Decrease in the competitiveness of domestic goods as a result of Russia's accession to the WTO;

Increasing the competitiveness of alternative energy sources, as well as the development of alternative technologies for the extraction of hydrocarbons (including shale gas);

Centralization of part of the budget revenues of the Autonomous Okrug at the federal level;

Restructuring of the main taxpayers;

Growth of expenditure obligations (without adequate additional financial support) of the budget of the Autonomous Okrug as a result of decisions taken at the federal level.

Internal risks include:

Change in strategic priorities for the development of the Autonomous Okrug;

Preservation of the single-industry structure of the economy;

Lack of motivation of the chief administrators of budget funds to efficiently execute the budget for expenditures.

Determining only a list of risks in the budget strategy seems insufficient; it is necessary to assess the impact of these risks on the long-term stability and balance of the regional budget system. Risk analysis is especially important for identifying the prospects for the development of public finances in the long term. In our opinion, in the budgetary strategies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, it is necessary to assess the impact of the following main risks:

Demographic risks. An aging population leads to an increase in social spending, a slowdown in economic growth and a decrease in budget revenues;

Economic risks. At present, there is a dependence of the revenues of the budgets of many constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the dynamics of the general economic situation caused by the orientation of the economy of these regions towards individual industries - metallurgy, mechanical engineering, etc .;

Social risks. On the the present stage development of Russia, the issues of replenishment, use and equitable distribution of state resources are especially urgent. The redistributive function of the budget is associated with the equalization of income between groups and strata of society (a decrease in social inequality, support for those caught in the zone of social risk, providing for the disabled, etc.). A high degree of stratification in society leads to the emergence of social risks, which in modern Russia are large enough and, apparently, will exist for more long period time.

Third, the budget strategies under consideration, unfortunately, do not define the parameters of budgets when various scenario conditions arise. When developing a budgetary strategy by a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, one should take into account the need to reflect the following information in it:

Goals and objectives of the budgetary strategy. The goals and objectives identified in the strategy should be presented in the following areas: budget revenue management, budget expenditure management and public debt management;

Analysis of the current budgetary policy and the state of state and municipal finances in the constituent entity of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the analysis of income, expenses and public debt should be supplemented with the results of the analysis of monitoring the management of regional finances;

Mechanisms for implementing the strategy, as well as a system for monitoring and evaluating the degree of implementation of the strategy.

The level of the developed budgetary strategy in the constituent entity of the Russian Federation will largely depend on the strategic planning documents adopted in the region. Analysis of the strategies for the socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation formed at the present time revealed the following problems:

Many strategies lack a rationale for the mission of the region;

Analysis of existing mission statements does not contribute to the identification of the region during external environment, does not reflect the specifics of the territory and does not determine development priorities;

In the adopted strategies, the structuring of goals is not carried out, the use of the “goal tree” method is absent in almost all regional strategies;

The strategies of only a limited list of subjects of the Russian Federation contain sections related to the identification of risks, reflecting the negative characteristics of the external environment;

There is no variability in setting goals and objectives for the socio-economic development of territories and the allocation of resources to achieve them, which does not allow choosing the most effective development strategies.

In conclusion, it should be noted that for the introduction of long-term budget planning in the Russian Federation, it is necessary to develop the entire system of state strategic planning, including the system of budget forecasting for the long term.

Among the key changes envisaged by the document is the introduction of long-term budget planning in Russia. Such planning is supposed to be carried out through the formation of a budget forecast for the Russian Federation, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities for the long term. Thus, the budget forecast of the Russian Federation and the regions will be developed every six years for 12 years or more. In turn, the municipal authorities will formulate a budget forecast every three years for six years or more. In this case, budget forecasts must be approved authorized bodies authorities within two months from the date of official publication of the law (decision) on the corresponding budget.

The budget forecast for the long term will include a forecast of the main characteristics of the respective budgets (consolidated budgets), indicators of financial support for state (municipal) programs, other indicators characterizing budgets, as well as the main approaches to the formation of budgetary policy for the long term.

In addition, in order to revitalize road construction in 2015 and 2016, the base volume of budgetary allocations from the Federal Road Fund was increased. So, in 2015 it will amount to 546.2 billion rubles, in 2016 - 561.7 billion rubles. Of these, the regional budgets will be provided with 91.2 and 69.3 billion rubles. respectively. Subsequently, the basic volume of budgetary allocations of the Federal Road Fund will be determined in the amount of 345 billion rubles, annually indexed to the inflation rate, and budgetary allocations equal to the projected volume of revenues from excise taxes on automobile and straight-run gasoline, diesel fuel and motor oils that go to the regional budgets. increased by 1.1 times.

In turn, excise taxes on motor gasoline, straight-run gasoline, diesel fuel, motor oils for diesel and carburetor (injection) engines produced in Russia are excluded from federal tax revenues and are included in full (100%) in the list of tax sources. revenues of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Previously, they were distributed between the federal and regional budgets in the amount of 28% and 72%, respectively.

In addition, the law provides for:

• improvement of the norms concerning the use of the resources of the Reserve Fund. So, when calculating additional oil and gas revenues of the federal budget, it is allowed to use data on oil and gas revenues, not only based on the projected oil price, but also data on oil and gas revenues actually received by the federal budget for the reporting financial year;
• the possibility of using additional oil and gas revenues, and in case of their shortage, the resources of the Reserve Fund, to replace the federal budget revenues that are not received during the execution of the federal budget and replace the sources of financing the federal budget deficit;
• the possibility of making interbudgetary transfers from the budgets of state extrabudgetary funds to the budget of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation, in particular, interbudgetary transfers from the budget of the Federal Mandatory Health Insurance Fund to the federal budget in the form of subsidies;
• establishment of a mechanism for the undisputed collection of taxes from taxpayers (tax agents) - organizations that have opened personal accounts in accordance with the budgetary legislation of the Russian Federation;
• an exception to the rules establishing the procedure for sending an annual budget message to the Federal Assembly by the President of the Russian Federation. However, it is stipulated that the preparation of draft budgets is based, inter alia, on the provisions of the message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly, which determine the budgetary policy (requirements for it) in Russia;
• repeal provisions on consolidated financial balance RF (document describing the scope and use of financial resources Russia and sectors of the economy).

Federal Law of October 4, 2014 No. 283-FZ "" entered into force on the day of its official publication - October 6, 2014, with the exception of certain norms for which a different entry into force is established.

Despite the measures taken in recent years to improve the budget process, there are still a number of shortcomings in it.

One of the problems is the development of a medium-term financial plan for each budget cycle separately, annual, rather than long-term, planning of budget expenditures.

The main task of long-term budget planning is to link the current budget policy with the tasks of creating long-term sustainable economic growth and improving the level and quality of life of the population.

In some countries, long-term budget projections are a mandatory part of the annual budget process, while others only occasionally make such projections. Most countries using long-term forecasting aim to integrate short-, medium- and long-term budget planning. This implies that the parameters of tax, budgetary and debt policies included in short-term budgets should be based on benchmarks developed in the framework of long-term planning. In turn, long-term plans should be regularly updated taking into account the actual conditions of economic development, a possible reassessment of the list of priority tasks and changes in external conditions.

The need for a transition to long-term budget planning is determined, first of all, by the threat to budget stability in conditions of unfavorable long-term trends (primarily demographic). The aging of the population in most developed countries leads to an increase in social expenditures (for pensions, health care, etc.), a slowdown in economic growth and a decrease in budget revenues. The result could be a significant increase in the budget deficit and a serious weakening of the macroeconomic balance.

Indeed, over the past seven years there has been an increase in social spending. Expenditures on education increased from 3.2% of GDP in 2000 to 4.0% of GDP in 2007, on health care and sports - from 2.2% of GDP to 2.9% of GDP, on social policy - from 1.4% GDP up to 2.4% of GDP.

In Russia, the problems of fiscal sustainability are caused not only by the aging of the population, but also by the high degree of dependence of the economy and the budget on the raw materials sector (oil and gas production and export) and external conditions in the raw materials markets. Structural shifts associated with the relatively slow growth of the oil and gas sector, as well as an increase in the real exchange rate of the ruble, lead to a reduction in the share of this sector in the economy. In conditions when the tax burden in this sector significantly exceeds the burden in other sectors, this trend leads to a reduction in budget revenues. Added to this are fluctuations in hydrocarbon prices, which have a significant impact on tax revenues from the oil and gas sector.

In addition, long-term planning makes it possible to formulate priority tasks, assess the necessary resources for their implementation and identify possible sources of these resources. Thus, long-term planning allows you to get away from the inertial approach, when allocations are allocated based on the indexation of trends in previous years. It is also important that most of the measures that allow to reduce the level of costs, while maintaining the level of quality of the provided public services, imply the reform of the relevant sector of the economy. Such structural reforms have a long lead time. Long-term planning allows timely identification of their need and a balanced approach to implementation.

The development of long-term budget forecasts increases the validity of decisions taken in this area, making it possible to comprehensively assess their long-term consequences. The achievement of this goal is also facilitated by the transparency of budgetary policy: the publication and wide public discussion of the results of long-term budget planning.

Long-term planning can also be a real step towards improving the efficiency of budget spending, while acting as a deterrent to unjustified spending growth.

Thus, long-term budget planning can play an important role in improving macroeconomic balance and the quality of fiscal policy in general.

Since 2000, the federal and expanded budgets of the Russian Federation have never been executed with a deficit.

The general government's budget has been executed in recent years with a surplus of 5 to 8 percent of GDP. According to this indicator, Russia differs from most other countries. Thus, on average in OECD countries, the budget is executed with a deficit of about 2% of GDP. At the same time, in the context of the rapid rise in oil prices, many oil-producing countries had even larger surpluses. So, in Norway in 2005-2007. the budget is executed with a surplus of 15 to 18% of GDP. Oil countries execute their budgets with surplus in order to control money supply, keep inflation low in the economy and maintain macroeconomic stability.

As can be seen from Table 3, the level of expenditures of the budgetary system decreased in relation to GDP in the period from 2002 to 2006, but in 2007 the level of expenditures practically returned to the level of the beginning of the 2000s as a result of the transfer of a significant part of the federal budget funds to the established development institutions. For this reason, the level of federal budget expenditures was significantly higher in 2007 compared to previous years - it reached 18.1% of GDP.

In general, the level of the tax burden in the Russian economy, defined as the ratio of taxes paid to GDP, remains at the level of 35-37%. However, it should be noted that such a load was formed in the context of constantly growing oil prices. If we calculate the tax burden at constant oil prices, then it has a clear tendency to decrease. An analysis of the dynamics of the tax burden on the non-oil and gas sector leads to a similar conclusion. It has decreased from 32-33% of value added at the beginning of the tax reform to 28-29% in recent years.

Continuing the topic of reducing the level of expenditures of the budgetary system in relation to GDP in the period from 2002 to 2006, it should be noted that an agreement was reached with creditors on the restructuring of the external debt of the former USSR, and the debt formed after January 1, 1991 was serviced in a timely manner and in full. volume.

If in 2000 its value was close to 100% of GDP, then by the end of 2007 the size of public debt fell to 7.3% of GDP, incl. external debt - up to 3.3% of GDP. By this indicator our country has one of the best indicators among all countries. The low level of public debt has significantly reduced interest expenses: they fell from 3.9% of GDP in 2000 to 0.5% of GDP in 2007. This made it possible to use the saved resources to develop the economy, solve social problems, and implement national projects. Thus, the funds freed up due to the early repayment of the external debt to the Paris Club of official creditors were sent to the Investment Fund to finance priority projects for the development of public infrastructure.

The reduction in government debt has reduced macroeconomic risks and, thus, has become an important factor in increasing the investment attractiveness of the Russian economy. It also led to an increase in the country limit of credit ratings, which ensured low rates on external borrowing of banks and non-banking institutions. On the whole, the macroeconomic and budgetary policies pursued in recent years have made a significant contribution to the dynamic growth of the Russian economy. Average annual GDP growth rates in 2000-2007. accounted for 7%.

In 2008 began to operate new edition Of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, according to which one of the main directions of the budget strategy is the preparation and approval of the federal budget for a period of three years, which helps to increase the stability of the budget system of the Russian Federation, allows to conclude state contracts for three years. In addition, given that the formation and approval of the federal budget for a three-year period is the basis for the transition to long-term financial planning, government contracts may be concluded for the entire period of implementation of long-term programs.

In connection with the adoption of the three-year budget, the processes of registering and communicating budget data to the participants in the budget process are changing. In addition, now the detailing of budget data by items and sub-items of the classification of operations can be delegated by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation to the main manager, from him to the manager, then in accordance with subordination, ending with the recipient of budget funds. These changes are reflected in a number of regulatory legal acts that will come into force in 2009.

Thus, the main manager of budgetary funds is given the opportunity to distribute the limits of budgetary obligations to one of its subordinate recipients in more detail, to another less. This flexible approach will allow the CEO to create efficient systems financial management in their area to achieve the set goals with the delegation of individual powers and responsibilities to the level of recipients of budget funds.

1. Long-term budget planning is carried out by forming a budget forecast of the Russian Federation for a long-term period, a budget forecast of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation for a long-term period, as well as a budget forecast of a municipality for a long-term period if the representative body of the municipality has made a decision on its formation in accordance with the requirements of this Code.

2. A budget forecast for a long-term period is understood as a document containing a forecast of the main characteristics of the corresponding budgets (consolidated budgets) of the budget system of the Russian Federation, indicators of financial support of state (municipal) programs for the period of their operation, other indicators characterizing the budgets (consolidated budgets) of the budget system Of the Russian Federation, as well as containing the main approaches to the formation of budgetary policy for the long term.

3. The budget forecast of the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation for a long-term period is developed every six years for twelve or more years on the basis of a forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation for the corresponding period.

The long-term budget forecast of the municipality is developed every three years for six or more years based on the forecast of the socio-economic development of the municipality for the corresponding period.

The budget forecast of the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, a municipal formation for a long-term period may be changed taking into account changes in the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, a municipal formation for the corresponding period and the adopted law (decision) on the corresponding budget without extending the period his actions.

4. The procedure for the development and approval, the period of validity, as well as the requirements for the composition and content of the budget forecast of the Russian Federation, the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, the municipality for a long-term period are established, respectively, by the Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body state power of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, local administration in compliance with the requirements of this Code.

5. The draft budget forecast (draft changes to the budget forecast) of the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, a municipality for a long-term period (except for indicators of financial support of state (municipal) programs) is submitted to the legislative (representative) body simultaneously with the draft law (decision) on appropriate budget.

6. The budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast) of the Russian Federation, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, a municipality for a long-term period shall be approved (approved) by the Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of state power of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, local administration within a period not exceeding two months from the date the official publication of the law (decision) on the corresponding budget.

(Article additionally included from October 6, 2014 Federal law 283-FZ dated October 4, 2014)

Commentary on Article 170.1 of the RF BC

The commented article regulates long-term budget planning, which replaced the previously applied rules for determining the budgetary policy of the Russian Federation for the next financial year and planning period.

Article 170.1 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation was introduced by the Federal Law of 04.10.2014 N 283-FZ and in accordance with part 4 of Article 6 of the said Law its provisions regarding the development and approval of the budget forecast of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation for the long-term period, the budget forecast of the municipality for the long-term period are applied from January 1 2015 year. Prior to this period, the supreme executive body of state power of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, the local administration of the municipality shall have the right to develop and approve the budget forecast of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation for the long term, the budget forecast of the municipality for the long term in the manner established by them.

Long-term budget planning will allow the transition to the full use of program-targeted management methods by increasing the predictability and stability of expenditures for the implementation of state (municipal) programs.

It has been determined that budget forecasts are formed by the Russian Federation, constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as well as municipalities (in the event that a relevant decision is made by the representative body of the municipal formation).

At the same time, various periods of validity of federal, regional and municipal budget forecasts are established, as well as the dates for the entry into force of the corresponding requirements (for the development and approval of these forecasts).

So, budget forecasts of the Russian Federation and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation must be approved for a period of at least 12 years, budget forecasts of municipalities (if adopted by a representative body local government decisions on the development and approval of the budget forecast) - for a period of at least six years.

Budget forecasts may be adjusted according to adopted laws(decisions) on budgets and changes in long-term forecasts of socio-economic development (of the Russian Federation, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities).

It was also found that budget forecasts are updated without changing the validity period of these forecasts. The development of new long-term budget forecasts (for 12 or more years for the Russian Federation and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, for 6 or more years for municipalities) is carried out every six years for the Russian Federation and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, every three years - for municipalities.

These forecasts should contain the main characteristics of the corresponding budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation, indicators of the volume of financial support for state (municipal) programs, the main directions of budgetary policy and other provisions (indicators), if provided by the relevant decisions of the highest executive bodies of state power (local administration) on the approval procedures for the development and approval of budget forecasts.

So, in the budget forecast of the Russian Federation, the goals and objectives of the budgetary policy for the long term, the conditions for the formation of the budget forecast of the Russian Federation, the main approaches to the formation of revenues of the budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation, the assessment and minimization of budgetary risks, the forecast of indicators for the budgets of the budgetary system in general, what will be established by the corresponding Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation "On the procedure for the development and approval of the budget forecast of the Russian Federation." The same decision may establish a longer period for which the budget forecast of the Russian Federation is developed in relation to the minimum period (the budget forecast of the Russian Federation is developed for an eighteen-year period).

Accordingly, in the budget forecasts of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period of their validity, the main characteristics of the consolidated budgets of the respective territories are determined, including in relation to local budgets (districts, urban and rural settlements).

Forecasting the parameters of the budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation, including the federal budget, for a long-term period makes it possible to assess (on a variant basis) financial possibilities for adopting new and fulfilling existing expenditure obligations, taking into account the consequences of the implementation of individual and general decisions, structural reforms, and their impact on balance budgets of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation in the long run.

Several stages have been established for the development of budget forecast projects.

The draft budget forecast, formed by the relevant financial body on the basis of the draft long-term forecast of socio-economic development (or changes to the specified forecast), is submitted to the supreme executive body of state power (local administration) simultaneously with the draft budget.

Drafts of the corresponding budget forecasts approved by the supreme executive authorities of the Russian Federation, the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, local administrations are subject to submission to the legislative (representative) authorities simultaneously with the draft laws (decisions) on budgets, which will allow considering draft budgets within the framework of a long-term budget forecast.

After the official publication of the law (decision) on the budget and approval of the long-term forecast of socio-economic development for the period corresponding to the period of validity of the budget forecast, the budget forecast is approved (specified) by the supreme executive authority.

Consultations and comments of lawyers under Article 170.1 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation

If you still have questions about Article 170.1 of the RF BC and you want to be sure of the relevance of the information provided, you can consult the lawyers of our website.

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