Financial planning in a crisis. Modern problems of science and education. Determining the timing of the implementation of anti-crisis measures

The XIV All-Russian Forum "Strategic Planning in Regions and Cities of Russia" took place in St. Petersburg. The main topics of the event were the reconfiguration of the strategic planning system in connection with the adoption of Federal Law No. 172-FZ and the problem of resource provision of strategies and their linkage with the budgetary process.

Strategies and reality

Exactly a year ago, summing up the results of the 13th Forum of Strategists, we discussed the crisis faced by the ideology of strategic planning in the new economic and political conditions. The deepening economic recession amid sanctions, as well as the collapse of the national currency, made the previously adopted forecasts and strategies irrelevant. Moreover, the activities of the authorities at all levels have practically lost their strategic dimension. It can be stated that the level of uncertainty has not decreased at all over the past year. Experts talk about a general decrease in activity in the development of strategies, about a further reduction in the real planning horizon. Obviously, strategic planning is going through hard times.

The work that began in connection with the adoption of Law No. 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation” creates a certain illusion of moving forward. The drafters of the law continue to expect that it will help implement the long-standing idea of ​​a clear hierarchy of federal, regional and local strategic documents linked by timelines, objectives and indicators. However, while this pyramid lacks the key - the upper - tier. Chief Economist of Vnesheconombank (and in the recent past - Deputy Minister of Economic Development, in charge of strategic planning) A. N. Klepach stated that the main strategic document of the country - the Concept for the Long-Term Development of the Russian Federation until 2020 - was outdated by the time of its adoption, since it happened at the height of the 2008 global financial and economic crisis. There is no need to talk about the relevance of KDR-2020 in the realities of 2015. According to the economist, this document still retains its significance as an exponent of certain strategic approaches, goals, as an “image of the desired tomorrow” (apparently, the same can be said about other unrealizable strategies: you cannot work on them, but they at least make us think about where we are going).

However, the relevance of this “image” also raises questions. As Klepach himself noted, it is not entirely clear to what extent the current operational decisions that the government is forced to take in a crisis (primarily, it is about cutting costs) have strategic consequences. Do they mean that we no longer adhere to all the previously identified strategic priorities (including, for example, those contained in the May decrees of the President of the Russian Federation)? “It is clear that the plans now need to be adjusted. But the question is different: are we going to implement them in principle? Did we just deviate and in the future will return to the chosen trajectory or, in principle, are we going a different road? " - such a question was raised by the chief economist of Vnesheconombank.

Prospects for Law No. 172-FZ

“After the previous crisis, many kept the illusion that, despite all the problems, the budget would still allow us to implement a variety of priorities. However, now resources have become really scarce, and without a strategic planning system, it will be impossible to distribute them correctly, "said the State Secretary - Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation O. V. Fomichev... He acknowledged that in the past two or three years, long-term development goals have increasingly been sacrificed for short-term ones. “Within the framework of the current policy, we are no longer focusing on making decisions that would ensure our long-term development. The task of the law on strategic planning is to finally start building a short-term policy based on long-term priorities, ”the official stressed.

In the first year of its operation, the law does not seem to have done much at this. So far, at the federal level, efforts in terms of strat planning are directed more towards the adoption of normative legal acts in the development of Law No. 172-FZ. Six government decrees have already been adopted, and nine more are to be adopted by the end of the year. According to Fomichev, a problem has emerged: although the law describes in detail the hierarchy of the strategic planning system, it does not provide for the adoption of an act that would regulate the procedures for developing the numerous documents provided for in it and thereby ensure their mutual coordination.

Fomichev said that his ministry has already begun preparations for the development of the 2030 strategy - the main strategic planning document in accordance with the law. A working group has been created at the Russian Ministry of Economy, and there are even some preliminary versions of the strategy concept. Nevertheless, there is an instruction from the Government of the Russian Federation to approve the strategy no earlier than 2017. Probably, the government took into account both the general economic uncertainty and the need for a large-scale study of this document with the expert community.

President of the Center for Strategic Research Foundation V. N. Knyaginin gave a brief description of the full cycle of strategic planning in accordance with the new law. “First, we make forecasts, strategies follow from forecasts, on the basis of strategies the main directions of activities of executive authorities are adopted, then state programs, and from them medium-term plans follow, which fully rely on the budget. The law requires us to voice problems, set goals, decompose them into tasks, tie resources to them and get a system of indicators that can reflect the achievement or failure of the set goals, ”said the expert.

According to Knyaginin, the hierarchy of strategic documents provided by the law is his most controversial and difficult innovation to implement. TO common problems the emerging system of strategic planning, he attributes weak forecasting, which, in theory, should be the starting point of any strategies, as well as incorrect formulation of goals. “Strategies should be focused on solving problems, and not on providing a certain amount of state and municipal services. So far, very often we receive “procurement” strategies and budgets, ”the expert noted. He also stressed that strategies, in principle, can only work if they are leadership strategies or are backed up by a team. Otherwise, they remain on paper.

Reacting to Knyaginin's statement about the shortcomings of forecasting, Klepach explained that the complexity for forecasts and strategies is the "suspended" nature of many previously made decisions. “Thanks to the mechanism of conditionally approved expenditures, up to a third of the federal budget is not distributed among departments, but remains at the disposal of the Russian Ministry of Finance, which allows it to respond to the economic situation. This is impossible in the forecast. Some decisions are immediately laid there and their consequences are assessed, ”the economist said. An example is the recent decision to index pensions by 4% instead of the planned 12%. “Not only the parameters of the budget depend on this, but also such indicators as the growth of real incomes of the population, the level of demand for 2015–2016,” he added.

Regional opinion

Representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia do not deny that the practice of implementing the law on strat planning can be assessed no earlier than in a few years, when the full cycle of strategizing has passed. Nevertheless, the regions, developing their strategies, are already trying to focus on new law... So, according to the Minister of Economy of the Republic of Tatarstan A. A. Zdunova, the law helped formalize the work on the regional strategy, properly structure it to ensure communication with state programs, and through them - with the operational level of decision-making. Tatarstan's strategy provides for a separate section with a list of state programs. The strategy, as well as the plan for its implementation, has already been adopted, so the necessary changes are being made to the state programs.

After waiting for the adoption of Federal Law No. 172-FZ, the Tomsk Region also began to develop its strategic documents. In March 2015, a regional law on strat planning was adopted, in May, a development strategy for the region until 2030 was approved. “We have come to understand that the strategy is to a greater extent an interdepartmental instrument, especially a regional one. The first thing that needs to be achieved is the coordination of all participants in the strategic planning process and the tools at their disposal. In our case, the coordination of industrialists and transport workers was of great importance, "said the chairman of the committee for strategic planning and program-target management of the Department of Economics of the Tomsk region. E. A. Bugaeva... According to her, an attempt was made in the regional strategy to solve two problems: to implement the priorities of federal policy in the region and municipalities, and also to link all the instruments of ministries and departments and investment plans of large corporations in one document. As a problem, Bugaeva noted the absence of a mechanism for taking into account regional priorities at the federal level, as well as the absence of an “infrastructure” for identifying regional growth points.

The resource problem

Perhaps the most painful issue for those who deal with strategies in recent years has been the synchronization of the processes of strategic and budget planning and the resource provision of the adopted documents. This problem, to put it mildly, is far from being solved. So, it turned out that we cannot adequately predict the amount of resources that we will have at our disposal in just a few years. As the ex-Minister of Finance of Russia recalled A. L. Kudrin During the development of KDR-2020, there was an active debate about what indicator of average annual GDP growth should be included in the strategy - 6% or 4%. As a result, the average GDP growth in 2008–2015 was about 1%. “This makes a big difference in terms of the resources we can count on. Maybe even earlier they had to be redistributed in some other way, for example, focusing on reforms that would ultimately allow for more serious growth, ”Kudrin said.

So, on the one hand, Russia basically lacks resource-backed strategies. On the other hand, in better shape is the long-term budget planning itself. State programs, viewed as a bridge between budgets and strategies, are also not entirely unrealistic - according to Kudrin, today they are formulated as if additional resources would appear for their implementation from somewhere.

According to the Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation A. L. Vedeva, the law on strategic planning actually did not come into effect and the planning cycle in accordance with it will be launched only in 2017, after the development of the 2030 strategy. In his opinion, the process of developing a strategy has slowed down due to the crisis. “The situation inclines everyone - both the expert community and the government - to develop short-term forecasts, and not forecasts for 5-10 years. In the current conditions, it is difficult to plan on the principles of strategic management. With all the desire to keep the strategic direction of development, we must adapt to crisis processes and use the tools of operational planning, ”Vedev said. According to him, now it is important to set new guidelines for the medium term, in accordance with which the development of long-term programs for the country's development will proceed. Currently, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia is developing a basic (most likely) scenario; conservative, taking into account unfavorable external conditions to a greater extent; and target. The target scenario assumes the transition of the Russian economy to sustainable growth at rates not lower than the world average, a decrease in inflation to 4% and an increase in labor productivity by at least 5%. "The main concept of the target scenario is to increase the efficiency of the economy by stimulating investment demand by reducing current consumption," Vedev emphasized.

Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia A. M. Lavrov believes that when planning budget resources, it is necessary to adhere to the baseline scenario, and when planning the activities of government bodies within the framework of state programs and strategies - the target one. This means that different forecast options must exist at the same time. At the same time, the achievement of the goals of strategies and state programs should be based primarily on regulatory instruments and only then on resources.

According to Lavrov, in Russia the transition to the program budget has taken place only formally. State programs were adopted mainly in 2012 and no longer correspond to anything: “On average, they are provided with funding by no more than 60-70 percent. Each budget cycle of the state program has to be squeezed into these budget constraints. We refuse some events, we cut some, ”Lavrov explained. Klepach called a profanation a situation in which state programs are, in fact, adjusted to the already adopted budget, without changing their target indicators. According to Lavrov, the Russian Ministry of Finance proposes to re-approve state programs, but this requires a general strategy of socio-economic development: without it, it is difficult to select priorities, formulate goals and objectives of state programs. The second prerequisite is an understanding of the amount of resources available. The function of their description should be performed by a long-term budget forecast until 2030. As the Deputy Minister emphasized, this forecast must necessarily provide for the ceilings of the state programs' expenditures.

According to the director of the Institute for Public Finance Reform V. V. Klimanova, a combination of budget planning and long-term planning socio-economic development is necessary, but there is an insurmountable theoretical contradiction between these two processes. “On the one hand, strategizing should be aimed at development, on the other, the financial authority should at some point indicate the existence of budgetary constraints and restrain the setting of tasks that are not provided with a resource base. But, again, if ambitious goals are not set when drawing up strategies, then there will be no development. No matter how many structures we create, this contradiction will still persist, ”the expert noted. According to his observations, so far very little attention is paid to the problem of resource constraints in strategies of different levels, including in the new strategies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, adopted in accordance with Law No. 172-FZ.

Klimanov also recalled that in 2013, the Ministry of Finance of Russia had already made an unsuccessful attempt to set strategic financial targets with the help of spending ceilings for all state programs. If this cannot be done now, then, according to the expert, the entire ideology of strategic planning will fail. The same will happen if the government does not abandon the one-year budget and does not continue to work on increasing the horizons of budget planning.

It cannot be ruled out that in the new economic conditions, the ideology of strategic planning will face transformation, and financial resources will lead to the abandonment of the hierarchical models familiar to Russia, which are more suitable for a planned economy and are oriented towards top-down distribution. The need to use more flexible approaches was also discussed at the Forum of Strategists. So, Klepach recalled that in Russia the idea of ​​strategic planning was born by the regions and municipalities, their practice and the desire to live not only today, and proposed to build a system from below. A similar opinion was expressed by the governor of the Tomsk region S. A. Zhvachkin... In his opinion, the attempt to build a vertical system of strategic planning breaks down on the economic diversity of Russian regions.

Accurate, comprehensive, timely diagnostics of the state of the enterprise - this is the first stage development of an anti-crisis management strategy for the enterprise.

The search for ways out of the economic crisis is directly related to the elimination of the reasons contributing to its occurrence. A thorough analysis of the external and internal business environment is carried out, those components that really matter for the organization are highlighted, information is collected and tracked for each component and, based on an assessment of the real situation of the enterprise, the causes of the crisis are clarified. Accurate, comprehensive, timely diagnostics of the state of the enterprise is the first stage in developing an anti-crisis management strategy for the enterprise.

When analyzing the external environment, we must conduct:

analysis of the macroenvironment can be conditionally divided into four sectors: political environment, econom. environment, social environment, technological environment.

analysis of the competitive environment for 5 main components: buyers, suppliers, competitors within the industry, potential. new competitors, substitute products.

Studying the external environment, managers concentrate their attention on finding out what threats and what opportunities the external environment conceals in itself.

Along with analyzing the external environment of the business, it is important to conduct an in-depth study of the real state of the enterprise, armed with this knowledge and a vision of what the enterprise should become in the future, the manager can develop an achievable anti-crisis strategy for making the necessary changes.

The weaker the present position of the enterprise, the more critical analysis should be its strategy. If there is a crisis situation at the enterprise, this is a sign of a weak strategy or its poor implementation, or both. When analyzing enterprise strategy, managers should focus on the following five points.

1. The effectiveness of the current strategy.

First you need to try to determine the place of the enterprise among competitors; second, the boundaries of competition (market size); third, consumer groups that the company is targeting; fourth, functional strategies in the field of production, marketing, finance, personnel. Assessing each component will give us a clearer picture of the strategy of an enterprise in crisis.

2. Strength and weakness, opportunities and threats of the enterprise.

An important part of the SWOT analysis is the assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the enterprise, its opportunities and threats, as well as conclusions about the need for certain strategic changes.

3. Competitiveness of prices and costs of the enterprise.

It must be known how the prices and costs of the enterprise relate to the prices and costs of competitors. In this case, strategic cost analysis is used. The method by which this analysis is carried out is called the "value chain"

The value chain reflects the process of creating value for a product / service and includes various activities and profits. Thus, it is possible to identify best practice performing a certain type of activity, the most effective way to minimize costs and, based on the analysis obtained, to start increasing the competitiveness of the enterprise in terms of costs.

4. Assessment of the strength of the competitive position of the enterprise.

The strength of the company's position (how weak or strong) in relation to its main competitors is assessed by such important indicators as product quality, financial position, technological capabilities, and the duration of the product cycle.

5. Identification of the problems that caused the crisis at the enterprise.

Managers study all the results of the state of the enterprise, at the time of the crisis, and determine what to focus on.

Second phase strategic anti-crisis planning - adjusting the mission and the system of goals of the enterprise. A cleverly formulated, understandable, and believed mission statement can be a powerful incentive to change strategy. A clearly formulated mission inspires employees of the company and encourages them to take action, gives them the opportunity to take initiative. The mission forms the main prerequisites for the success of the enterprise under various influences on it from the external and internal environment.

Then comes the process of adjusting the system of goals (desired results that contribute to overcoming the economic crisis). The manager compares the desired results and the results of research on the factors of the external and internal environment that limit the achievement of the desired results, and makes changes to the system of goals. Each enterprise has a certain system of goals that arise as a reflection of goals different groups: owners of the enterprise; employees of the enterprise; buyers; business partners; society as a whole.

If the mission is a vision of how the enterprise should be in the future, then the system of goals (long-term and short-term goals) are the desired results corresponding to the understanding of the goal. The goals are the starting point of the strategic planning system.

Stage three anti-crisis strategic planning - the formulation of strategic alternatives for the exit of the enterprise from the economic crisis and the choice of strategy.

This concludes the process of strategic planning and begins the process of determining the tactics for implementing the chosen strategy (operational planning), and then the implementation of the anti-crisis strategy, assessment and control of the results is carried out.

In a crisis situation, most managers think about how to simply survive - in difficult times they see this as the only possible strategy. However, smarter leaders understand that it is precisely the period of complete uncertainty, when the financial and market environment changes almost every day, that gives the chance to make a serious strategic leap.

It is to this cohort of leaders that Douglas Daft, CEO of Coca – Cola 2000-2004, belongs. In 1997, when he headed the Asian division of the company, the financial crisis swept across many countries of Asia. Assets were depreciating, capital investments were frozen, and panic was growing. It was at this moment, according to Daft, that it was necessary to think about what to do in order for the company to come out of the crisis even stronger than before. He gathered his managers and held several meetings with them. After all, after World War II, Coca-Cola found new growth opportunities in devastated Western Europe and made one of its major breakthroughs in international markets.

Daft believed that the crisis is the best time to acquire assets and it is unforgivable to miss such a chance. It was then that Coca-Cola bought a beverage bottling plant in South Korea, which helped it penetrate local family-owned retail chains and strengthened its position in China, Japan and Malaysia. The company abandoned the previous principle of sales planning for individual countries and began to build a strategy for the Asian region as a whole. In addition, she purchased several local brands of coffee and tea. And yet, it rebuilt its entire supply system, consolidating the purchases of aluminum and plastic for bottles, coffee and sugar and revising their terms.

Large multinationals are not the only ones to take advantage of the downturn. At the start of the Asian crisis, the South Korean Housing & Commercial Bank (H&CB) was a mid-sized government lending institution that specialized in mortgages. The bank worked neither shaky nor shaky, and its market capitalization did not exceed $ 250 million. But the head of H&CB, Kim Jong Tae, was a bright and bold-minded person. He knew that in times of crisis, people are more willing to accept change and innovation, and he understood that it was necessary to seize this opportunity. Kim Jun Tae reformed the bank: changed it organizational structure, strategy and work culture. In addition, the country has improved laws regarding mergers and acquisitions. All this together allowed H&CB to merge with Kookmin Bank in 2001. Immediately prior to the merger, H&CB had a market capitalization of $ 2.1 billion: it became the first South Korean bank to list its American depositary receipts on the New York Stock Exchange.

How do companies manage to achieve such success amid total chaos? It follows from the examples given that it is important to understand that a crisis is not only a shock, uncertainty and new threats, a crisis is also unique conditions for radical and large-scale transformations. Forward-thinking managers abandon stereotypes and try to seize opportunities that would hardly interest them in a normal situation. Coca-Cola already knew that attitudes towards foreigners in local markets were changing and that the Asian crisis opened up unprecedented prospects for the company: it had a chance to acquire tempting assets. That is, it was the perfect time to increase market share. H&CB took advantage of changes in legislation and the willingness of employees to change.

Beyond the bounds of the possible

Under normal circumstances, a company's performance - its business model and scale - depends on four factors: legislation, competition, purchasing behavior, and the organization's ability to grow. But in times of crisis, the picture changes dramatically and other factors are much more important; if companies manage to take advantage of the chance, they occupy a much better position in the market than before. By understanding the importance of these factors for the business and their likely change in times of turmoil, senior managers can prepare in advance to ensure that in troubled times not to miss out on previously unavailable strategic opportunities.

Reform of legislation

The restrictions imposed by the law naturally determine the essence of the business of most companies and the methods of doing it. The business lines allowed, the markets in which the company can operate, the types of products or services it is entitled to supply, the maximum allowed market share, and so on are all factors that executives take for granted. However, in times of crisis, restrictions are often eroded or even lifted.

For example, the South Korean Competition Control Commission, which gives the go-ahead for mergers, until 1997 was very tough on such deals. However, when the government set out to rebuild the country's crumbling financial system, officials allowed previously unacceptable banking mergers. It was a change in legislation in 2001 that helped H&CB merge with Kookmin. As a result, a financial giant emerged, which has never been in the history of South Korea: H&CB's share in the deposit market jumped from 11 to 26%, in the consumer loans market - from 29 to 44%, and corporate lending - from 5 to 24%.

In addition, restrictions on foreign participation in business may be relaxed or completely removed. For example, in most developed Asian countries, the permissible share of foreign participation in the banking sector has grown from 50 to 100% (Malaysia is an exception; see Chart 1). Roughly the same thing happened in other industries, thanks to which new prospects opened up for foreign players.

Changes in legislation often release latent consumer demand, resulting in new industries being created overnight. During the 1994 crisis in Brazil, the government made significant improvements to the legislation on financial services for individuals. Under the new rules, mutual funds became legally independent from banks, and credit card issuers were allowed to work with several companies at once. As a result, the assets of mutual funds grew sharply - from practically zero in 1994 to $ 120 billion in 1996, and the volume of credit card transactions - from $ 10 to $ 26 billion. Companies ready for such changes have ensured significant growth.

Changes in legislation during financial crises are initiated not only from the top. A lot also depends on the company. For example, in 1998, GE Capital got the Japanese government out of the insurance law it needed when Japan wanted to stabilize the financial sector. As a result, GE Capital invested $ 1.1 billion in the bankrupt company Toho Mutual Life Insurance, and the government agreed to reduce the interest rate on new policies from an unprofitable 4.75% to a more profitable 1.5%. Leaders should always consider the possibility of improving legislation, especially during and immediately after a crisis.

Changing the competitive environment

Industry leaders usually have more options to simply ride out the financial storm. However, refusal to pay interest, disruptions in supply chains, loss of creditor or investor confidence can quickly overturn even the strongest, opening the door to new players and changing the balance of power in the industry. After the crises of 1994 in Mexico and 1997 in South Korea, the lists of the top ten companies in these countries changed twice as often as usual. At the same time, consolidation in many industries increased sharply.

The financial services sector is hitting hardest by the crisis. In 1994, three of Brazil's ten major banks went bankrupt, and several state-owned banks were privatized, strengthening the industry's consolidation and increasing foreign ownership. By 2000, of the top ten banks in the country, five were newcomers. Moreover, the assets of the ten largest foreign banks grew from zero to $ 63 billion (13% of all banking assets). On the whole, banks with foreign participation controlled almost 30% of the entire Brazilian banking sector - $ 133 billion in banking assets (see Chart 2). In Russia, about the same thing happened: five out of ten banks, which were considered the largest in 1996, went bankrupt by 2001, and small local banks (like Alfa-Bank) grew and became the largest financial institutions. This situation has been repeated over and over again in many countries.

When small local companies are bursting at the seams, they are often bought by larger players, often foreign ones, who operate in many directions. Until 1997, almost all cement in Southeast Asia was produced by local enterprises. Many of them proved to be ineffective, and today most of them are owned by foreigners. The Swiss cement giant Holcim has become one of the strongest new entrants to the market. For almost ten years, the concern has been thinking about expanding its business in Asia. Holcim eventually bought large (in some cases controlling) stakes in cement companies in Thailand (Siam City Cement), the Philippines (Alsons Cement and Union Cement) and Indonesia (PT Semen Cibinong). Holcim has transformed these rather weak companies into market leaders by refreshing the management of these enterprises and changing the composition of their boards of directors: for example, Siam City Cement's market capitalization has grown fivefold in three years after the change of ownership. A similar scenario has been played out many times throughout Southeast Asia.

The generally accepted principle is to postpone new investments and mergers and acquisitions in times of financial instability until better times. But the experience of many strong companies proves the opposite. Between August and December 1997, as financial chaos spread, Asia (excluding Japan) saw 400 deals worth $ 35 billion, an increase of more than 200% over the same period the previous year.

Of course, it would be foolish to ignore the fact that mergers and acquisitions become much more risky during financial crises. However, the deal can be structured to take new risks into account. For example, in 1997, Belgian brewery Interbrew was in talks with South Korea's Doosan to buy its brewing division, Oriental Brewery. Due to market uncertainty and rumors of forthcoming changes in the liquor laws, the companies have agreed to a number of contingent payments to hedge against changes in the asset's value. Interbrew has acquired a 50% stake in Oriental Brewery subject to additional payments subject to certain industry or tax changes. Thinking creatively, the leaders of Interbrew and Doosan have struck a win-win deal.

Changing shopping behavior

If people lose their jobs and even less their savings, their consumer needs change. Then in the most advantageous position are retail chains-discounters and manufacturers of inexpensive goods. With a rapidly growing middle class in Indonesia interested in global brands and high-quality goods, the local discounter chain Ramayana was having a hard time. But the company's position began to improve when the national currency, the rupee, fell sharply, and after that the population tightened their belts. Ramayana's management reacted to the situation in the following way: it was decided to keep the same prices, offer more products in small packages and focus on inexpensive essential goods in the assortment - vegetable oil, rice, etc. Total sales in the country fell, but at Ramayana, by December 1998, sales were growing at an annual rate of 18% - in the midst of the crisis.

According to McKinsey research, since 1997, consumer attitudes towards new financial products, new distribution channels, and foreign organizations have changed in many Asian markets in many Asian markets (see Chart 3). In particular, in 1998-2000. this was clearly evident with regard to loans. For example, the proportion of consumers who think borrowing is "unwise" dropped from 46% to 26% in South Korea, from 52% to 42% in Malaysia, and from 55% to 45% in the Philippines. It is not surprising that after this, a credit boom began in many countries - in 1998-2001. consumer loans increased 30% in South Korea and 129% in China. Demand has also changed in other sectors of the economy.

People are gradually beginning to perceive foreign companies differently. In 1994, only 47% of South Koreans assessed foreign direct investment positively, and in March 1998 their number was already 90%. People realized the country's need not only for foreign capital, but also for the technologies and management methods that foreign companies bring with them. The newly elected President of South Korea, Kim Dae-jung, managed to convince his compatriots of the benefits of foreign investment. He cited the example of the financial and automotive industries in the UK: although the British own only a few companies, they provide the country with many well-paid jobs. This argument worked, and from 1997 to 1999, FDI flows to South Korea rose from $ 7 billion to $ 15 billion. Foreign companies that react quickly to such changes in the minds of consumers can skim the cream off.

Organization reform

For executives ready to take bold steps, the crisis offers a chance to radically change corporate culture and working methods: shareholders, employees and creditors recognize the need for change, and resistance to them is weakening. It is then that visionary leaders can reshape the entire system of power, bring the size of the organization to optimal size, instill a stronger culture of efficiency, and decisively abandon outdated dogmas.

Take the H&CB bank. During the 1997-1998 crisis. its head, Kim Jung Tae, carried out an unprecedented reform of the entire organizational structure. First of all, he approved high target performance indicators for the company (return on assets 1.5% and return on equity 25%) - the same as for the American bank Wells Fargo and the British Lloyds TSB. Kim said that H&CB "could become a world-class bank and enter the world's top 100 commercial banks in three years" - a very daring goal for a small and very run-of-the-mill South Korean bank. Nevertheless, financial instability played into the hands of Kim: in three months he cut staff by 30%, and he himself received a salary of only 1 won (less than 1 cent) in the first year - the rest of his income came from stock options. This practice was uncommon in South Korea.

Over the next two years, Kim initiated more than 20 performance improvement programs in areas such as pricing strategy, consumer credit scoring and customer service. To increase the responsibility of banking units and the transparency of their work, he reorganized them, shifting the focus from serving a specific territory to serving customers. The salary of employees became more dependent on the efficiency of their work, and the system of bonuses was revised. It was simply impossible to imagine these radical reforms before the crisis, but during the crisis all interest groups recognized their validity. As a result, H&CB was able to achieve high performance targets in just two years.

Ayala, a Filipino firm that is over 170 years old, has always been proud of social guarantees which she provided to employees, namely, what was assigned to them for life workplace... But during the crisis of 1997-1998. the management of the company realized the need to renew the staff in order to remain competitive. The company took an unprecedented step by offering a voluntary layoff program.

Time after time, we see how the crisis is pushing managers and shareholders to revise the previous management methods and move up to the world level in management, reporting and work with personnel. Companies that manage to implement such reforms are likely to get ahead in the post-crisis recovery.

Don't miss the moment

To turn a crisis situation to your advantage, it is not enough just to realize that the rules of the game have changed and new opportunities must be sought. For example, if under normal conditions a company can slowly, for several months, "sort things out" with distributors punishes the slow, but also generously rewards those who act quickly and flexibly.

The fastest are often the first to enter new markets, the future of which is even more uncertain. It takes courage, but the prize for the winner is worth it. Lone Star Funds was the first to decide to buy out distressed banking assets in South Korea. In December 1998, a handful of investors were bidding, and Lone Star acquired its first NPL portfolio from the Korean Asset Management Company (KAMCO) for just 36% of its book value. The deal seemed very risky. Stephen Lee, head of the South Korean office of Lone Star, commented: “No one before us has evaluated the liquidity of these assets in the market. It was almost impossible to carry out a control examination ”. Nevertheless, the deal turned out to be profitable and the portfolio generated a very substantial annual return. At the next KAMCO auction in June 1999, 14 investors filed for bids and prices jumped.

In order to develop a strategy in such conditions, you need, as they say, to be able to turn around and quickly reassess the state of affairs after each next significant change. The most forward-thinking leaders do this reassessment weekly, if not daily. It is difficult to manage a company during times of instability, but one must not forget about the transformations necessary for the future of the company. We need to figure out how to take advantage of the situation - before competitors do it.

Financial crises shake and paralyze not only countries, but also companies, and often push them to the bottom. However, real professionals perceive instability differently - as a change of scenery for their business - and try to seize the moment with maximum benefit. By staying calm in the chaos and confusion, constantly monitoring important legislative, financial and political changes, the most talented crisis managers find new sources of growth in adverse circumstances.

After the merger, the new bank was named Kookmin Bank.

Before the 1997 crisis, there was only one merger in the banking sector; it turned out to be largely unsuccessful, as labor legislation did not allow banks to seriously cut costs.

Data from Banco Centralo do Brasil.

Inkombank, Menatep, Mosbusinessbank, SBS-Agro and ONEXIM.

See Rajan Anandan, Anil Kumar, Gautam Kumra, Asutosh Padhi. M&A in Asia // The McKinsey Quarterly, 1998, No 2, p. 64-75.

Studies of the attitude of South Koreans to foreign investment in the country's economy, conducted by the Korea Development Institute in 1994 and 1998.

See: Pupil Who Has Learned Enough to Tutor // Financial Times, March 21, 2002; Foreign Direct Investment in Korea // KPMG, September 2001.

A government organization that buys distressed assets of banks and other financial institutions for the purpose of their subsequent resale.

Dominic Barton- Director of McKinsey, Seoul
Roberto Newell - former employee McKinsey, Miami
Gregory Wilson- partner at McKinsey, Washington

Popova Marina (senior consultant of the company "Gorislavtsev and K0", Candidate of Economic Sciences)

The reasons for the financial crisis at the enterprise can be the general recession of the market, and the wrongly chosen development strategy, and ineffective work of management. Regardless of this, to get the company out of the crisis, you can use universal tools: cost reduction, sales promotion, cash flow optimization, work with debtors and restructuring of accounts payable.

Diagnosing the financial crisis

The speed and methods of overcoming the crisis largely depend on what are the causes of its occurrence and how quickly it will be identified. In the process of the development of the financial crisis, four of its main stages can be distinguished:

• decrease in the efficiency of capital use, decrease in profitability and absolute values ​​of profit volumes;
• the occurrence of unprofitable production;
• lack of own funds and reserve funds, a sharp decline in the company's solvency. This is often accompanied by a significant reduction in production due to the fact that some working capital is directed to servicing the increased accounts payable;
• a state of acute insolvency. The company does not have the ability to finance production and make payments on previous obligations. There is a real threat of suspension or even complete cessation of production, and then bankruptcy.

Personal experience

Viacheslav Gvozdev,

Deputy CFO of Nikpa (Moscow)

In our company, the main criterion for the approaching financial crisis is the dynamic growth of overdue accounts payable, as well as the frequent exceeding of the limits for the shipment of goods to customers and their failure to comply with the established payment deadlines. Another indicator that is constantly monitored after the crisis that our company was in two and a half years ago is the remaining stock and their dynamics. During the crisis, we were faced with the fact that with a significant amount of funds immobilized in warehouse stocks, the sale practically stopped, since the goods in the warehouse were either not the same or of unsatisfactory quality from the point of view of consumer demand.

Grigory Dorokhin,

Head of the Planning and Budgeting Department of JSC "Plant" Stroydormash "(Yekaterinburg)

In most cases, the crisis is not a consequence effective management in the absence of a development strategy. The main reason businesses are on the brink of financial ruin is to work for one client. A poorly diversified client portfolio leads to negative consequences. The company ceases to be flexible, loses such management mechanisms as pricing and receivables management, since it is forced to adjust to its requirements in order to retain the client. Another common reason for the development of the crisis is the lack of effective management of the financial and economic block on the basis of modern mechanisms, such as budgeting, margin analysis, and credit policy. In addition to economic reasons, it is necessary to note the existing legal risks that may adversely affect the financial condition of the enterprise.

Marina Osipova,

CFO of the Dionis Club company (Moscow)

With proper management, the main reason for the development of the crisis in the company is the general decline of the market. The steady stagnation of the company, lasting more than a year, is an obvious indicator of the crisis. Such phenomena are easy to distinguish from seasonal fluctuations, which rarely last longer than two to three months.

A way out of the crisis is possible only if the causes of its occurrence are eliminated. To do this, it is necessary to conduct a thorough and comprehensive analysis of the external and internal environment, highlight those components that really are of priority importance for the enterprise (stocks, equipment, key personnel), collect information on each component, and assess the real situation of the enterprise. Comprehensive diagnostics of possible reasons for the development of the crisis at the enterprise includes:

• analysis of the effectiveness of the current strategy and its functional areas (strategy in the field of financial management, sales and production). For this, the monitoring of changes in key performance indicators of the company in functional areas is carried out;
• analysis of the company's competitive advantages, its strengths and weaknesses, as well as opportunities and threats (SWOT analysis 1);
• analysis of the competitiveness of prices and costs of the enterprise. For this, periodic marketing research and operational monitoring of competitors' work are carried out.

Due to their laboriousness, most of the listed procedures, with the exception of monitoring key performance indicators, cannot be carried out on a monthly basis. It can be recommended to carry out diagnostics annually or in cases when the external and internal operating conditions of the enterprise change significantly.

Personal experience

Anna Nekhina,

Director of the Laboratory of Anti-Crisis Research LLC (Moscow)

The reasons for the crisis can be a general recession in the market, and an incorrectly chosen strategy for the development of an enterprise, but the most important and frequent cause in practice is a general crisis of enterprise management, including:

• clash of interests between the management and the owners of the enterprise;
• insufficient qualifications of management.

In addition, for Russian enterprises, another characteristic cause of the crisis is the discrepancy between the available means of production ( production assets, technology, personnel) to the tasks set by the enterprise. This problem, which arose after serious structural changes in the economy in the 90s, has not been resolved until now.

I diagnose the onset of a major crisis in an enterprise if it does not make a profit for several quarters in a row. However, in modern companies this value, reflected in the financial statements, is very conditional, therefore it can be determined only on the basis of the consolidated statements of all legal entities related to the enterprise. I believe that it is impossible to get out of the crisis with the help of the same people, under whose leadership the enterprise came to the crisis. It is necessary to create a working group (it can include both external specialists and employees of the company), which is endowed with special powers. This group should collect the necessary information and develop an anti-crisis action plan (financial recovery plan). It must be discussed in detail by the owners of the enterprise together with the management, the working group and specialists competent in this matter. Depending on the causes and depth of the crisis, the plan may provide for various measures, up to the liquidation or sale of the business.

Personal experience

Marina Osipova

I would highlight the following steps aimed at correcting the crisis situation:

• diagnosis and recognition of a crisis situation;
• definition of a crisis "focus". These can be outdated technological processes, uncontrollable growth of costs, incorrect positioning of goods on the market;
• development of methods of "treatment";
• formation of an integrated plan for overcoming the crisis.

Despite the fact that the causes of the financial crisis are individual for all enterprises, there are several universal management tools that can be used to overcome the crisis:

• cost reduction;
• sales promotion;
• optimization of cash flows;
• working with debtors and reforming the commercial lending policy;
• restructuring of accounts payable.

Reduced costs

It is obvious that in order to increase the profitability of sales and further increase cash flow, it is necessary to reduce costs. In a crisis, cost reduction 2 is one of the most effective tools that an enterprise can use to stabilize its financial position.

Personal experience

Marina Osipova

The main tools that I had to use in the company in unfavorable financial conditions are rationing of all cost items and strict control over the implementation of established standards. This approach cannot be called revolutionary, but it brings tangible results and allows you to keep the company's costs at a given level.

To reduce the company's costs in a crisis, the following is necessary: ​​toughening of procedures for authorizing costs, motivating staff to reduce costs and reduce costs not related to the company's core activities. Within the framework of the listed activities, the following procedures must be performed.

1. Formation of the company's budget. Planning costs and delegating the authority to manage them to department managers will significantly reduce the company's costs. If at the time of the onset of the financial crisis, budgeting was not carried out, it is possible to recommend that you limit yourself to drawing up a master budget (forecast balance, cash flow budget and budget of income and expenses), budgets of key production units, as well as form budgets of receivables and payables and the movement of raw materials and materials ... This will optimize cash flow and keep costs at a given level.
2. Horizontal and vertical integration. Horizontal integration involves looking for purchasing opportunities with another customer. An increase in the volume of purchases will allow obtaining the so-called volume discounts. Vertical integration implies closer work with suppliers of key types of raw materials and materials (timely fulfillment of contractual obligations, financial transparency, etc.).
3. Analysis of the possibilities of outsourcing expensive processes. It should be assessed which components are profitable to produce on their own, and which ones are cheaper to purchase from other manufacturers. For example, most of the enterprises that had their own boiler houses transferred them to the ownership of city administrations, since maintenance and service were too expensive.
4. Introduction of new forms of settlements with counterparties (bills of exchange, barter).
5. Tighter control of all types of costs. It is noticed that when a company, for example, begins to register outgoing long-distance calls from employees, total amount calls is reduced due to the decrease in conversations on personal matters.
6. Optimization technological processes... Optimization issues can be resolved when discussing production technology and product quality by the CFO and the production director. At one of the enterprises, production waste was significantly reduced only due to constant monitoring of the work of personnel and tightening of production discipline. The problem was the careless handling of raw materials by the workers.
7. Reducing labor costs. It is necessary to develop bonus schemes for company personnel and motivate them to reduce costs. As a basis, a scheme can be taken in which part of the saved costs is paid to the employee. It is also necessary to revise the organizational structure to eliminate unnecessary levels of management.

Personal experience

Viacheslav Gvozdev

Our company tries to avoid the reduction of such a cost item as personnel costs. In most cases, the savings from reducing wages almost imperceptible, but such measures can provoke a personnel crisis of personnel, which will significantly complicate the state of the enterprise. It should be borne in mind that in order to compensate for the outflow of personnel from the company in the short term, it will take time and intensification of the work of the remaining employees, and these factors are very limited for the enterprise in a crisis. In the long term, these factors can be used successfully.

Sales promotion

One of the widespread mistakes is that in times of crisis, many companies try to increase their cash flow by raising the price of products without prior market research. The activation of sales in a crisis situation should be expressed in the development of relations with existing customers and attracting new ones, offering new products to the market, concluding contracts for work with tolling raw materials, as well as revising the existing system of discounts and benefits for buyers.

1. Limited marketing research... The main purpose of the study is to determine the market capacity, to assess the possibility of increasing sales volumes and selling prices. It is also necessary to identify consumer preferences, that is, to rank, according to the degree of importance, those characteristics of the product that buyers pay attention to. This will eliminate unclaimed characteristics and, consequently, reduce costs.
2. Allocation of a group of goods that bring the company the greatest profit. An ABC analysis of the profitability of the company's products is carried out. The attention of sales managers should be focused on the first group ("A") of goods. For this, a differentiated system of motivation is created, when managers receive a different percentage of sales for different categories of goods.
3. Revision of the assortment and pricing policies of the company 3. It is necessary to estimate the break-even point for each product category and compare it with the sales data for several previous periods. If the break-even point is higher than the sales volume of any of the product names, then the pricing policy for this product should be reviewed or the possibility of removing it from production should be analyzed.

Optimizing cash flows

Optimizing cash flows is one of the important tasks of anti-crisis financial management.

The first thing to do in this direction is to implement a daily cash balance reconciliation procedure. This will eliminate possible abuse, will give managers reliable information about the current balance of funds in the accounts and at the cash desk of the enterprise, which is necessary for making decisions on the implementation of current payments. Then you need to create a register of current payments and prioritize. Top managers should consider the priority of this or that payment in the course of a monthly discussion with the participation of ordinary employees. After that, you can proceed to building the most detailed cash flow budget for the next reporting period (month). This will optimize the company's cash flows and anticipate cash gaps.

In addition, it is necessary to maintain a low balance on current accounts in various banks, that is, to keep the amount of cash to a minimum. If one of the company's accounts is frozen, it can continue to work using accounts in other banks. This measure will help protect the company from risks such as bank bankruptcy or invoice filing.

It is also necessary to consider the possibility of increasing the so-called non-operating income. For this, together with the engineering service, the possibility of selling a part of unused equipment or its conservation is being analyzed. The equipment conservation act is transferred to tax office, thanks to which it will be possible to avoid paying property tax on mothballed objects. Often, an enterprise can receive additional income by renting out unused space or moving an office to a less expensive location.

Along with the listed measures to optimize cash flows, it is necessary to revise the company's policy in the field of capital investments:

• suspend or close long-term investment projects that will not bring income in the near future;
• for projects that cannot be stopped, the investment flow schedule should be changed so as to exclude the occurrence of cash gaps in the company's budget.

Debtor Relations and Commercial Lending Policy Reform

In the conditions of the financial crisis, the company should not completely abandon the sale of products in installments, as this is likely to cause a sharp decline in sales. In order to optimize the work with debtors 4, it is possible to recommend the following actions.

1. Structuring debtors by due dates. For example, the following groups of debtors with maturity can be distinguished: up to 15 days, from 15 to 20 days, etc. For each of the groups it is necessary to appoint a responsible person (usually a sales manager) who controls the timeliness and completeness of the fulfillment of obligations by counterparties ... It is advisable to introduce a bonus scheme for motivating managers, tied to the maturity of accounts receivable, for example, 1% of the amount of funds received on time; 0.5% upon receipt of funds with a delay of one or two days, etc.
   Personal experience

   Marina Osipova

   The work with the receivables existing at the time of the crisis should be structured as follows. You need to start with an inventory of the company's debtors, that is, with specifying the amount of accounts receivable and the timing of its repayment for each counterparty. Also, at the stage of inventory, the likelihood of bad debt is assessed. Then the methods of influence on debtors are determined depending on the state of the debt (time of delay, size, etc.).

2. Consideration of options for the sale of accounts receivable to the factor company.
3. Development of formalized principles for assessing the creditworthiness of clients. It is advisable to consider the buyer creditworthy as long as the funds received from him for previously shipped products cover the cost of goods sold. For newly attracted clients, it is justified to use full or partial prepayment as the main delivery condition.
4. Formation of a scale of discounts for early repayment and forecasting the growth of cash flows. Before accepting the new terms of settlements with counterparties, it is necessary to simulate the situation by building a cash flow budget and a budget for income and expenses. If an optimal result is obtained, a new calculation scheme is approved by an order for the enterprise.

Personal experience

Grigory Dorokhin

I can give you an example from my own practice.

A certain company had two main areas of activity: packaging production and trade. building materials... Due to incorrect pricing in the packaging direction, production was largely financed from trade in construction materials. The situation was aggravated by the fact that the company's balance sheet liability was represented exclusively by short-term liabilities (accounts payable and short-term bank loans). The most serious problem was that the production worked mainly for one client. Naturally, when the management tried to raise the prices of the products, the buyers simply refused to buy them.

In these conditions, we took the following actions: set limits on general production costs, tightened control over the costs of auxiliary workshops, cut investments in equipment and production facilities, and minimized almost all items of general business costs.

It was also necessary to increase the turnover for profitable commodity items. Own funds for the development and activation of sales were not enough, and the company was denied bank loans. It was possible to find the necessary funds through the use of such a tool as factoring, which, although it reduced the profitability of individual operations, but made it possible to significantly shorten the financial cycle, while increasing sales and total profit.

Accounts payable restructuring

Accounts payable restructuring involves obtaining various concessions from creditors, for example, reducing the amount owed or reducing the interest rate on a loan in exchange for various assets owned by the company. There are several main ways to restructure accounts payable.

1. Assignment of ownership of fixed assets. The company can agree with the creditor to pay off part of the accounts payable in exchange for fixed assets. Before offering any assets as compensation, it is necessary to assess how important they are for the production activities of the enterprise and whether they are collateral for other obligations. This method is suitable for companies with a large number of fixed assets that are difficult to sell at an affordable price, or the costs of their storage and maintenance are quite high. It is advisable to offer this method of restructuring to those creditors who can use or sell the resulting assets.
2. Assignment of company shares. One of the types of compensation is the offer of a block of shares on the balance sheet of the enterprise. In this case, the newly issued shares cannot be used to reduce accounts payable. The agreement is concluded between the creditor and the owners of the enterprise, who are ready to cede part of the enterprise's shares in exchange for improved credit conditions. Lenders can take this approach if their claims on the enterprise constitute a significant portion of its total debt, or if they plan to diversify their business by acquiring stakes in other companies.
3. Offsetting. Debt offsetting is a common method of debt restructuring. In the process of analyzing accounts receivable and payable, it often turns out that the company has debentures in front of the company to which he also has counterclaims. In such a situation, the entity can offset both amounts. Moreover, netting can be carried out unilaterally by notifying the other party (preferably in writing and with confirmation of delivery of the letter). The entity may also attempt to buy back the debts of the lender from a third party at a significant discount and then offset the full amount.
4. Re-registration of accounts payable. Very often, debts to creditors are not secured by anything. If such creditors demand repayment of the debt in court, then they risk receiving only part or nothing at all, since their claims will be satisfied last. An entity may offer unsecured creditors to convert the debt into a secured obligation in exchange for a reduction in the amount of debt, interest and / or an increase in the maturity of the debt. For the restructuring of an unsecured loan, you can also offer the lender collateral in the form of a guarantee or a third party surety, in accordance with which the third party undertakes to repay the debt of the enterprise in the event that it cannot do so on its own.
5. Paying off accounts payable by providing promissory notes. A promissory note as a means of debt restructuring is a new obligation that must be fulfilled in accordance with newly established terms and often at lower interest rates. This frees the company from paying debt in this period, contributing to the improvement of the company's performance indicators. Businesses in financial distress can use bills of exchange as a loan restructuring tool if there is a third party interested in acquiring the company's liabilities.

It is much more efficient to use bank bills. For this, a loan agreement is concluded with a bank secured for the amount necessary to purchase bank bills. In the future, the company pays off with its creditor with bank bills. In this transaction, the company effectively replaces its many “unsecured” creditors with one “secured” - a bank that provides loans to the company at an interest rate lower than the rates on unrestructured debt. Lenders benefit because in return for doubtful debts they receive very specific claims against the bank. Companies using this method of restructuring tend to have many small lenders, good relationships with a stable bank, and have assets that can be used as collateral for a loan.

Personal experience

Viacheslav Gvozdev

Most of the creditors of our company are Western suppliers of goods. In a situation where a company has overdue accounts payable, we use two approaches. First, an agreement is concluded with the supplier that the company will pay off the debt as it acquires new consignments of goods. For example, a new purchase of goods is being carried out. In this case, the full cost of the purchased batch and part of the old overdue payables are paid. The second approach is that the accounts payable to the supplier is either restructured with the transfer of payments to the future, or is repaid through a short-term bank loan issued for replenishment of working capital, taking into account the real turnover of "frozen" stocks received from this supplier.

Marina Osipova

In my opinion, the most effective instrument for restructuring accounts payable is the repayment of accounts payable as a result of the assignment of claims to one or several debtors. This method does not require the diversion of funds from circulation and allows you to save on the costs of servicing accounts payable.

Anna Nekhina

I believe that the main mechanism for restructuring accounts payable is the conclusion of an amicable agreement approved by the court. In this case, the company and persons interested in bringing the company out of the crisis are, to some extent, insured against unscrupulous creditors. After all, an enterprise in crisis is a very interesting target for specialists in mergers and acquisitions (corporate takeovers).

And already within the framework of an amicable agreement, it is possible to carry out restructuring measures: installments, exchange of debts for securities, debt forgiveness, etc.

Personnel management in a crisis

Separately, it should be said about personnel management in the context of the elimination of the crisis. If the emergence of an external threat is monitored in a timely manner and there is time for the systematic implementation of changes, then serious problems does not arise. However, in most crisis situations, all organizational changes in terms of cost, accounts receivable and cash management must be carried out on a tight schedule, which causes an increase in the workload on employees. All this gives rise to resistance to the ongoing reforms and their sabotage. In order to overcome this situation, it is necessary to carry out explanatory work among the staff and bring to them a plan for overcoming the crisis. This can be done both at general meetings and through department heads.

Personal experience

Anna Nekhina

The personnel problem during the crisis will have to be faced constantly. To ensure some stability of personnel, at least at the lowest and middle levels, it is necessary to plan the cash flows of the enterprise in such a way that there are never delays in the payment of wages. After all, it is the payment of wages that, as it seems to me, is the main indicator of the company's solvency for its ordinary employees. In addition, you should increase the degree of confidentiality of everything related to the financial condition of the enterprise. Rumors are still unlikely to be avoided, but with a combination of confidentiality and activities aimed at increasing loyalty to the "native plant" (presentation of letters, congratulations, labor competitions), I think the mood of the team will be much more positive than if the situation is allowed to take its course ...

After developing a financial recovery plan, it is necessary to explain to the team exactly what it is, and, possibly, create some kind of reward system related to its implementation.

Marina Osipova

When managing personnel, special attention should be paid to informal leaders who are negatively disposed towards the anti-crisis measures being taken. These employees need to be convinced of the necessity and justification of the actions taken or to be fired.

Competent work with personnel in this way will help to carry out the above measures and will contribute to the elimination of the crisis at the enterprise.

Practical experience in overcoming the financial crisis

Anton Khodarev, Financial Director of OOO TK "Russian Coal" (Moscow)

Description of the situation

Russian Coal Company, Regional Development Assistance Fund and Federal agency for construction and housing and communal services of the Russian Federation founded the Interregional Communal Company (MRKK) - a management company in the housing and communal services market. The first object for MRKK in July 2004 was the municipal services of the city of Raichikhinsk, which at that time was under the jurisdiction of the municipal unitary enterprise Housing and Communal Services of the City of Raichikhinsk (Amur Region), which provided enterprises and the population with a full range of public services. The communal economy at that time was in a state of permanent financial crisis: for three and a half months, wages were not paid, the enterprise had a large debt to budget and non-budget funds, as well as high accounts payable - a non-payment crisis developed. From the point of view of financial management, the concept of management accounting and cost accounting was completely absent, accounting was carried out manually. The top management of the enterprise undermined the credibility of both the staff of the enterprise and the city administration. Sabotage began, and the number of accidents sharply increased. The enterprise was on the verge of bankruptcy, and urgent anti-crisis measures.

What was done

The complexity of the current situation was that the MRKK acted as an external anti-crisis manager. Its management did not have a sufficient amount of reliable information about the external and internal environment of the enterprise. Nevertheless, the following activities were carried out.

1. Cost management. The crisis management process was started by reducing existing costs. For this, a global inventory was carried out at the beginning and at the end of the reporting period (initially one month). This made it possible to eradicate trivial theft, which took on rampant proportions in the context of non-payment of wages. As a result, it was possible to approximately estimate the real consumption of raw materials and materials for the period and to compile a primary matrix of the unit cost of typical operations.

   The next step towards reducing costs was the introduction of primary budgeting. After the budget was formed, a budget committee was convened, at which the planned expenditures were defended. A detailed analysis of cost items revealed that the overstatement for most cost items is about 30%. For example, a detailed analysis of the budgeted electricity costs, which amounted to about 10 million rubles, showed that in reality they do not exceed 8.5 million rubles. In order to make people fulfill the budget, a system of indicators was created on its basis, the responsibility for the achievement of which was distributed between the employees of the enterprise and the centers of responsibility. This made it possible to exclude the attitude to the budget as a formal document, the execution of which is optional.

2. Work with providers. It was decided to abandon some of the former suppliers of raw materials and materials, which, according to tacit agreements with the previous management, supplied raw materials and materials at inflated prices. All purchases over 15 thousand rubles. As a result of the anti-crisis measures, they were centralized and carried out through the MRCC, due to which the cost of purchases significantly decreased. In addition, the so-called horizontal integration purchases with another local enterprise, Amurskiy Ugol, which purchases large quantities of fuel for coal mining operations, an agreement was signed on the joint purchase of fuel. This led to a significant increase in the volume of orders for fuel and allowed to reduce its cost.
3. Optimizing the use of assets. Based on the results of the analysis of the use of fixed assets, an opportunity was found to mothball one of the thermal stations, redistributing the load between the remaining ones. This allowed for savings on property tax and reduced maintenance costs. The processes of woodworking and mechanical workshops... The vacated areas were rented out for warehouses.
4. Cash management. A list of the highest priority payments was developed, in which, in decreasing order of importance, the following items were included:
   
   
   • electricity;
   • wage;
   • payments to budgetary and non-budgetary funds;
   • materials;
   • other costs.
   
   

In addition, a successful transition to an automated method of accounting was carried out, due to which the costs of staff working time for carrying out standard accounting operations were significantly reduced and the foundations of primary management accounting were laid. In the future, this made it possible to avoid mistakes in fundamentally important indicators for the enterprise, such as the cost of services.

1. Debt restructuring. The VAT debt was restructured as a result of negotiations with the tax inspectorate. This was achieved as a result of submitting financial plans for a year and for five years to the tax inspectorate: on the basis of these plans, it was decided to pay VAT arrears within three years. All liabilities for the payment of wages were paid off within four months at the expense of the company's profits. Other payables to suppliers and contractors were liquidated in exchange for the provision of utility bills.
2. Work with personnel. During the reforms, a large number of meetings were held with the participation of all personnel, the main idea of ​​which was that all the difficulties of the enterprise are temporary and will be overcome in the near future. They also actively talked about the successful results of the reforms already obtained and provided examples of the effective work of the units. This increased team spirit and minimized resistance to change and sabotage.

To work with the personnel, local specialists were involved, who conducted classes on optimization and automation of business processes, which made it possible to significantly reduce the cost of carrying out activities.

Crisis management results

Thanks to balanced management decisions, it was possible to turn the bankrupt enterprise into a stable company in half a year: accounts payable were reduced by 80%, wage arrears were fully repaid, and the company's profitability increased.

1 For more information on this tool, see the article “SWOT Analysis at the Service of the CFO” (“ CFO", 2005, No. 2, p. 12). - Note. edition.

2 For methods of cost management, see the article "How to develop a cost management system" ("Financial Director", 2003, No. 11, p. 12). - Note. edition.

3 For more details on how to build the optimal structure of the product range, see the article "How to optimize the range"

4 For more details on the management of accounts receivable, see the article "Recommendations for the management of accounts receivable" ("Financial Director", 2004, No. 1, p. 31). - Note. edition.

PROBLEMS OF PLANNING IN ENTERPRISES IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE MARKET ECONOMY CRISIS

Viktor Artemyevich Zhuravlev

Siberian State Geodetic Academy, 630108, Novosibirsk, st. Plakhotny, 10, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics of Land Management and Real Estate, tel. 8 913 892 85 10, e-mail: [email protected]

The article deals with the problems of making planning decisions at enterprises in the conditions of the crisis of the market economy in Russia.

Key words: business, current and strategic planning, crisis,

financial success, enterprise, consumer, products.

PROBLEMS OF CORPORATE PLANNING UNDER MARKET ECONOMICS CRYSIS CONDITIONS

Victor A. Zhuravlyov

Assoc. Prof., Department of Land Management and Real Property, Siberian State Academy of Geodesy, 10 Plakhotnogo St., 630108 Novosibirsk, phone: 8 913 892 85 10, email: [email protected]

The problems of corporate planning decision-making under the market economics crisis conditions in Russia are considered.

Key words: business, current and strategic planning, crisis, financial success, enterprise, consumer, production.

In market conditions, each enterprise (firm, corporation, company, plant, factory) is an open production and technical system associated with certain relationships with the external environment.

In market conditions, an enterprise must timely determine the upcoming scientific, technical, organizational, economic, socio-political and other types of external environmental impact (both negative and positive) and make appropriate planning decisions. This significantly changes the attitude towards the enterprise management system, since organizational management schemes must take into account not only the nature of strategies, the type of structures, planning and control procedures, but the responsiveness of the management's response and the readiness of the enterprise personnel to adequately respond to changes. environment than to ensure the guaranteed financial well-being of the object of management.

Enterprises as open systems can be simple (small firms), complex (medium-sized companies), and super-complex (large integrated corporations). Each enterprise has certain capabilities, therefore, its management system should ensure the most efficient use of available resources (basic, circulating, labor), as well as

create conditions and prerequisites for the consistent growth of the enterprise's potential.

Thus, for successful operation, each enterprise must simultaneously perform two main functions:

Ensure the solvency of the company through effective current activities;

To increase the potential of the enterprise by updating the technology, production facilities, products (services), that is, to develop the enterprise, than to ensure the compliance of the internal environment with the tasks facing it.

For the simultaneous performance of these functions, it is necessary to maintain a balance of compliance of the allocated resources with the operational (current) and strategic objectives of the enterprise.

Excessive activation of the development of the enterprise (a large range of updated products, frequent changes in technology, radical innovations, etc.) requires large investment costs, and current activities from the sale of products are not able to provide the necessary solvency in short term.

As a result, debt liabilities grow (both short-term and long-term), reasonable proportions between equity (capital) and debt liabilities are violated, and the enterprise finds itself in a crisis situation (possible bankruptcy).

Otherwise, when only current activities are provided and no attention is paid to development, the enterprise can function successfully in the short term, but it can lose competitiveness in the long term, as sales volumes and market share decrease, and its financial stability sharply decreases, and it moves towards bankruptcy.

Thus, for the successful fulfillment of the functions of current activities and the development of an enterprise, it is necessary to carry out effective planning of all types of its activities.

Enterprise planning is a tool for designing the desired future and effective ways to achieve it.

When forming a system of intrafirm planning, it is necessary to take into account that in market conditions all economic entities develop cyclically, that is, at certain periods the enterprise may experience a recession, or depression, or recovery or steady growth.

The cyclical nature of the state is due not only to the action of the crisis in the external environment, but also to internal factors.

Each recession has a negative impact on the economy not only of enterprises, regions, countries, but also on the life of society.

During a crisis situation, which arises due to a violation of the existing balance of supply and demand for products in the market, which in turn leads to stagnation in the development of enterprises, increases unemployment and worsens the previously achieved standard of living of society.

At the same time, the crisis situation is a catalyst for the revitalization of activities in all directions, in order to get out of the crisis and ensure subsequent growth, it is necessary to take into account the cyclical development of the economy.

To take into account cyclicality in the planning process, it is necessary to have an idea of ​​the factors affecting the cyclicality of development. To learn how to manage an enterprise in conditions of cyclical development, it is necessary to take into account not only the peculiarities of the growth and fall curves in these crisis cycles, but also to know the factors (external and internal) that affect the ability to manage the enterprise.

External factors include:

The state of the market and the position of the management object (enterprise) on it;

The general state of the economy of the country, region, industry to which the enterprise belongs;

The level of effective consumer demand;

Supplier position;

Inflation rate;

The value of interest rates for a bank loan.

The dynamics of changes in these factors can strongly influence the economy of the enterprise, and the enterprise itself is not able to influence them.

Business leaders must monitor such changes and adjust their activities to reflect changes in external factors.

Internal factors affecting the economic development of the enterprise include:

Personnel potential;

Condition of fixed assets (equipment, etc.);

Working capital;

The amount of debt (short-term and long-term);

The level of utilization of production facilities;

The progressiveness of the technologies used;

The level of conformity in the adequacy of the development of production infrastructure to current tasks;

The operational ability of production to update products.

The management of the enterprise can manage internal factors, and therefore they need to be developed taking into account the cyclical development of the external environment.

At each enterprise there are fluctuations in its financial condition, depending on the management decisions made due to changes in the situation in the external environment. These fluctuations also occur in the event of an imbalance between current and strategic activities.

So in the process of mastering new products and progressive technologies at the enterprise, a transitional period takes place when the inevitable

a decline in the economic performance of the enterprise, and then, when the enterprise adapts to innovations, the period of mastering innovations and personnel training ends, and the economic condition of the enterprise improves, since it is already at a qualitatively new level of adequate compliance with the external environment.

All innovations orient the company towards a product policy that meets the needs of the consumer of products and adaptation to a changing external environment. The art of leadership in making planning decisions is determined by the understanding of this correspondence.

Since each stage of development of an enterprise requires investment, it is necessary that in the process of current activities resources for further development are accumulated, that is, the economic and financial potential is increased, and it is used to develop the competitive advantages of products.

Thus, in the planning process, it is necessary to take into account not only the current activities and the potential for growth of the enterprise's potential, but also to take into account the cyclicality due to the economic, technological, product, organizational stages of the enterprise's development.

Intercompany planning is an organic element of the management system and affects all aspects of the enterprise.

Since planning is a process of designing the desired future and effective ways to achieve it, the end result of such a process is to strengthen the competitiveness of products for the confident subsequent purposeful activity of the enterprise in the market.

Planned decisions are interconnected with a set of organizational and technical, economic, financial and social decisions and take into account the necessary conditions for the development of the enterprise at the present time and in the foreseeable future.

Like any process, planning is carried out continuously through iterations that bring the planned solution closer to the real new capabilities of the enterprise. Thus, the planning process is aimed at determining the conditions under which it is possible to achieve the desired state of the planning object, determined by the strategy and tactics of enterprise development.

The disadvantage of the existing planning practice in the formation of the budget is the predominant attention to current tasks. As a result, the company's promising activities remain without proper attention and funding. To avoid such a situation, in the planning process, it is necessary to ensure a balance between the strategic and current orientation in the activities of the enterprise.

To solve this problem, planning is divided into a dual system with two independent action plans (strategic and current) and dual funding (separate budgets - current and strategic).

The objectives of the current budget are:

Ensuring continuous profit from the use of the existing facilities of the enterprise;

Current investment of resources in increasing capacity;

Cost reduction costs.

The strategic development budget is characterized by:

Investments in the development of product policy and increasing the competitiveness of products;

Expansion of the sales market;

Investment in diversification of production.

The need to develop a strategy and tactics for the development of an enterprise determines the use of strategic and tactical (current) planning for their implementation.

The entire set of plans is present in the activities of the enterprise, however, the formation of each of them has its own characteristics in terms of the level of detail, the degree of aggregation (consolidation) of information, the set of indicators used, targets and other differences.

From the point of view of responsibility for the formation and implementation of plans, each level in the management hierarchy has its own type of planning.

So, highest level management (top management) is responsible for the mission of the enterprise, development strategy, strategic goals and strategic planning. In this regard, the management structure should be structured in such a way as to separate the general management as much as possible from the solution of current tasks.

The middle level of management carries out functional management and is responsible for tactical - current planning, although it participates in the formation of strategic plans.

Enterprise operating in market economy, is exposed to the influences of the external environment, in which there are rapid changes caused by various factors - changes in market conditions, saturation of sales markets, the emergence of new goods (services).

The ongoing changes increase the degree of uncertainty in making operational planning decisions, and, consequently, the economic risk in achieving the planned results increases.

In these conditions, the enterprise needs to have guidelines for moving forward, that is, to have a current development strategy. The lack of a strategy leads to the fact that each structural subdivision the enterprise begins to look for its own ways out of this situation, which are not coordinated with the general strategy of the enterprise.

In this situation, the role of the marketing service sharply increases, which should:

To intensify the promotion of goods and revive the demand for products;

Provide information to the management about the problems of consumers of products and the actions of competitors;

Indicate directions for strengthening efforts for the benefit of consumers.

The presence of a strategy allows for more targeted and interrelated strategic planning, which reduces material and financial losses in achieving strategic goals.

In planning the activities of enterprises, various approaches are used, the main of which are:

Matrix planning of production costs based on input-output matrices (Leontiev's model) and standardized unit costs of resources;

Optimal planning, which includes an objective function, a set of restrictions in the forming planning decision according to the degree of satisfaction of a given criterion (profit, etc.);

Adaptive planning that takes into account the dynamics of enterprise resources and the consistency of enterprise goals when choosing planning decisions.

The planning process consists of:

Assessment of the real capabilities or potential of the enterprise at the time of making a decision;

Determination of the necessary conditions for achieving the set goals in a given period of time;

Making a planned decision, which includes a set of measures to ensure the achievement of the set goals with the effective use of the potential of the enterprise.

The size of enterprises, the scale of production, the range of products (services), the complexity of products, the intensity of renewal of production of products (services) impose their own limitations and determine the specifics of planning.

In a small enterprise, almost all management functions, including planning, are carried out by the entrepreneur (owner) due to a lack of financial resources.

Depending on the type of business, the production program may include:

Wholesale trade- procurement plan;

Service sector - the volume of ordered services;

In the tourist business - the volume of sales of vouchers;

In the scientific and technical business - the volume of orders for R&D (development);

In consulting firms, the volume of orders for consulting services.

Common to all types of business is the planning of the volume of trade. On the basis of these planning documents, the working capital and fixed assets necessary for the implementation of the production program are calculated, a system of wages and labor motivation is formed.

Planning in small firms is carried out in conditions of significant financial and credit constraints, therefore development plans depend on the financial and credit capabilities of the firm.

Increasing the financial potential of the company will be facilitated by planning costs and working capital, since the saving of all types of resources and the efficient use of the existing potential of the company are the sources of economic growth of the company and the basis for the transition to a medium-sized business.

Medium business (up to 500 people) has a large turnover, and losses from incorrect planning decisions are becoming more tangible. In this regard, the level of analytical work on planning financial and economic, marketing, production and personnel activities is objectively increasing in relation to small businesses.

The marketing plan becomes the basis for planning other types of activities, i.e., only after determining:

Market capacity;

Possible distribution channels;

By calculating the expected sales volumes for each type of product, taking into account the competition, you can develop the rest of the plans.

It should also be borne in mind that with an increase in turnover, the degree of uncertainty in achieving the final results increases due to higher competition, and therefore the level of economic risk increases, which must be taken into account in the planning process.

In a medium-sized business, the main one is an entrepreneur (general director) and he already delegates the implementation of certain management functions and the definition of areas of activity to the appropriate managers:

Marketing;

Financial and Economic Management;

By production;

Personnel management, etc.

For the work, professionals are involved who own modern technology management, decision-making and business. However, the functional management groups themselves are small in size.

Strategically, the problems of growth of assets and authorized capital become urgent as the basis for increasing collateral guarantees and, accordingly, expanding the possibilities of attracting investments for

development of the company. Aspirations to increase market share, take over firms, and develop a network of dealers are developing.

Thus, in a medium-sized business, almost all procedures and mechanisms of professional in-house planning become necessary.

In large business, based on the concentration of capital and the integration of structures, internal planning is the most important element of company management.

Large companies have both advantages and disadvantages.

The benefits include:

Large production facilities;

High technical equipment;

A large range of products;

Relatively low unit costs;

The possibility of obtaining superprofits;

Financial sustainability;

Great opportunities for the production of competitive products;

Unity of scientific and production processes;

Greater social protection of personnel.

The disadvantages include:

Organizational inertia of structures;

Complex communication links;

A large number of management personnel;

Poor fitness and reaction to a fundamentally new

Products (conservatism in innovations);

The complexity and duration of management decisions.

In large companies, planning difficulties are caused by:

Diversity of products;

The dynamics of product renewal, which leads to an increase in the degree of uncertainty in the management of production systems;

The need to take into account the impact of economic risk.

Large complexes should plan:

The company's goals are both strategic and tactical;

Development of the company's potential;

Range and volumes of products;

Summary planning.

Large complexes are more susceptible to intra-firm economic fluctuations due to the impact of innovation cycles, technological and organizational development cycles. Due to this

the planning system should take into account not only specific cycles, but also the interrelationships between them and their impact on the planned results.

Financial planning as a resultant component of the system of plans presents certain difficulties due to the need to take into account the impact of all areas of planned activities on financial results. A special place in the financial activities of the complexes belongs to the planning of cash receipts and payments, the formation of sources of investment in the development of the company.

Taking into account the large number of employees in integrated companies (tens and hundreds of thousands of employees), the most important direction of planned work is social planning, which provides for the growth of opportunities for social protection of employees and the creation of favorable social and psychological conditions for activity.

Small, medium and large enterprises, as well as various forms of enterprise integration, require a planning mechanism corresponding to their status, while observing general management principles and management requirements.

Taking into account the current crisis state of the market for making planning decisions in the product policy of enterprises, the following general recommendations can be formulated:

1. Do not elaborate on the strategy, but form the general directions with a focus on the customer.

2. Strategic events take place not only on the basis of sound information, but also on the basis of a case (crisis).

3. The way to effective planning in an unstable environment is the presence of strategic goals and flexible management of deviations.

4. Do not make a large-scale decision that can put the organization on the brink of bankruptcy, look for a way out of this situation, and in this case it is necessary to take measures to reduce the risk of bankruptcy.

5. Realize that any planning decision is inevitably probabilistic. The likelihood of error remains regardless of how carefully the decision is reasoned.

6. It must be remembered that the implementation of decisions depends on the person and the human factor always takes place, and his intervention can lead to unforeseen consequences, often opposite to our expectations.

7. Supplement the planning decision making process with a conscious search for opportunities in any situation. Look for answers to the questions: what is not good? what doesn't make sense? why? what to use?

8. Information is the main strategic advantage. Do not spare funds for creating an information base and for research (scientific and technical, financial and economic, marketing, etc.).

9. When making planning decisions, respect the interests of all participants in the implementation of these decisions. This will help reduce the difficulty of implementing decisions and avoid conflict situations. Know how to lead

negotiation. It is a means of resolving conflicts and finding areas of coincidence of interest with partners.

10. Make friends with costing sheets, balance sheets, budget. This will allow you to become an active participant in improving the financial stability of the enterprise.

11. Learn from competitors, not just defend against them. Use the market reaction to competitive moves as one of the most reliable ways to study the market.

12. Remember that big problems are best solved by breaking them down into smaller ones. Large-scale problems seem indestructible, while incremental steps are feasible and fruitful.

13. Prioritize problems and goals.

14. Stay in control of what matters most - the results. Determine the boundaries of the solution space and the range of possible changes in the planned indicators.

15. Maintain the achieved capabilities of infrastructure units and in crisis situations provide them with the opportunity to work for the external environment. The task of matching the actual need for services to the units engaged in the main activity can be solved not only by reducing personnel.

Original Russian Text © V.A. Zhuravlev, 2012