Hierarchical levels of systems according to Kenneth Boulding. The essence of managing the territory of the subject of the federation as an integral socio-economic system Bowling systems theory

BUSINESS PLAN

Topic: Investment project for organizing an entertainment bowling center.

Introduction

Anyone can play bowling. Excitement and simplicity of the game are the main reasons for the popularity of bowling. This type of business is not widespread enough in our city, so the creation of a new bowling center can be a profitable financial investment.

It must be remembered that the investor's priority is the amount of money that the club brings at the time of purchase, and not the results that the institution is able to show in the future. However, the demand in this market significantly exceeds the supply, and this very often leads to the fact that even unprofitable establishments at the time of sale “leave” at a very good price.

The trend towards an increase in the number of bowling centers has become more stable, for several reasons - the well-being of Russians is slowly but surely growing, people's need for recreation and entertainment is unlikely to ever disappear, and bowling is becoming an increasingly popular form of active recreation. Therefore, the creation of bowling centers is becoming not only interesting, but also economically profitable.

The goals of organizing this business:

· Obtaining financial benefits;

· Provision of leisure of the population;

· Development of bowling as a sport, as entertainment and as a business in the city of Kirov.

Tasks:

Taking a market share of at least 30%;

Reducing the payback period of the project;

Increased growth in net income.

Typical working conditions of the company

The choice of the organizational and legal form of the enterprise

This business plan is presented in the form investment project... It is recommended to choose the form of individual entrepreneurship as an organizational and legal form.

The advantages of this organizational and legal form:

· No primary authorized capital is required;

· It is not required to draw up the charter of the enterprise;

An individual entrepreneur is the only manager Money;

· The possibility of using a simplified taxation system.

Strong and weaknesses this business

Factors that positively affect the activities of the enterprise:

The presence in Kirov of only two establishments providing bowling services, which leads to a low level of competition in this area of ​​business and low entry barriers to the market;

Favorable location (far from competitors) - Lepse area;

Bowling is a public game, since it does not impose restrictions on the age and gender of visitors and does not require special physical training;

Simplicity and speed of business organization due to the absence of a production process, which ensures a quick turnover of funds; the possibility of expanding the business;

Average prices on the market, subject to high quality services; low;

Operating expenses, i.e. significant material costs are necessary only at the stage of creating a bowling center, after the start of work they are minimized.

Factors negatively affecting the activities of the enterprise:

1. the presence of serious competitors;

2. high cost of equipment and its transportation when buying or replacing;

3. high enough cost of the service;

4.insufficient awareness potential clients.

Assessment of the competitive environment

Expected and maximum incomes of the Bowling Center, the 21st Century restaurant, and the Globus entertainment club.

Sales forecast

Income from bowling in the entertainment club "Bowling Center" for 1 week, month, year

5) expected sales proceeds - 4,188,000 rubles.

6) the planned costs of the production and implementation of the project - 7170 thousand rubles.

7) expected net profit - RUB 1,715,234.12

8) the main sources of financing are enterprise profits, bank loans, etc.

9) The payback period of the project is 4 years 2 months.

2. Market research and analysis

According to experts, twenty-five years ago in our country there were only two bowling halls - one in Central Asia, which is greedy for luxury, and the other in the advanced Baltic states. In the year of the Moscow Olympics, a third was added to them, which appeared in the capital's hotel "Cosmos". The first real commercial bowling alley was "Alex", opened in 1997 and, by the way, is still working in the Central House of Tourists.

From that moment on, the "dam burst": decent money "flowed" into bowling as a business. In the pre-crisis times, the recipe for commercial success was very simple: the main thing was to find a suitable room, install new (and more often restored) equipment, and in a year it was possible to “recoup” all the funds. After all, an hour of renting a track cost the client at least $ 50.

Now, of course, the profitability of the business is an order of magnitude lower, but all the same, according to Pavel Primak, who manages the Planet Bowling chain of bowling clubs, it remains very decent - at least 25%. In Moscow, once every two or three months, one new club still appears.

As experts admit, the dynamics of bowling development is directly related to the growth of the population's well-being, because the main consumer of such entertainment is the middle class. Considering that Russians' incomes are growing faster than GDP growth, bowling can be predicted with the most brilliant future.

Until now, in almost all Moscow clubs in the evening, even on weekdays, it is advisable to book a track in advance, like a table in a prestigious restaurant. According to Mikhail Chizhikov, vice-president of the Sports Bowling Federation of Russia, the bowling industry ranks third in the world in terms of profitability among legal types of business after gambling and oil.

At the moment, in the city of Kirov, there are only a few organizations that provide bowling services: Entertainment Center"Globus" and entertainment club "21st century". To determine the expected income, a competitor income study was conducted.

Table 3 provides information on the expected and maximum income that the entertainment club "Globus" should receive from bowling in one week.

Table 3 - Income from bowling in the entertainment club "Globus" for 1 week

Days of the week	Time	Price, for 1 hour	Expected income	Maximum income
Monday Tuesday	12.00-17.00	210 RUB	1.5 d * 3 hours * 21Oru b / hour = 945 rubles.	4d * 5h * 210 RUB / hour = 4200 RUB
Wednesday	17.00-24.00	330 RUB	2d * 7 hours * 330 RUB / hour = 4620 RUB	4d * 7hours * 33 RUB / hour = 9240 RUB
24.00-6.00	330 RUB	1d * 6 hours * 330 RUB / hour = 1980 RUB	4d * 6 hours * 330 RUB / hour = 7920 RUB
Thursday Sunday	12.00-17.00	330 RUB	1.5d * 5 hours * 33Oru b / hour = 4125 rubles.	4d * 5 hours * 330 RUB / hour = 6600 RUB
17.00-24.00	RUB 600	2d * 7 hours * 600 rubles / hour = 8400 rubles.	4d * 7h * 600 RUB / hour = 16800 RUB
24.00-6.00	RUB 600	2,5d * 6 hours * 600 rubles / hour = 9000 rubles.	4d * 6 hours * 600 rubles / hour = 14400 rubles.
Friday Saturday	12.00-17.00	330 RUB	2d * 5 hours * 330 rubles / hour = 3300 rubles.	4d * 5 hours * 330 RUB / hour = 6600 RUB
17.00-24.00	RUB 600	2d * 7 hours * 600 rubles / hour = 8400 rubles.	4d * 7h * 600 RUB / hour = 16800 RUB
24.00-6.00	RUB 600	4d * 6 hours * 600 rubles / hour = 14400 rubles.	4d * 6h * 600 RUB / hour -14400 RUB

Table 4 calculates information on the expected and maximum income that the entertainment club "Globus" should receive from bowling for one week, month, year.

Table 4 - Income from bowling in the entertainment club "Globus" for 1 week, month, year

Table 5 provides information on the expected and maximum returns that the 21st Century restaurant expects to receive from bowling in one week.

Table 5 - Income from bowling in the 21st century restaurant for 1 week

Days of the week	Time	Price, for 1 hour	Expected income	Maximum income
Monday Tuesday	12.00-17.00	RUB 180	1d * 2.5 hours * 180 rubles / hour = 450 rubles.	2d * 5 hours * 180 rubles / hour = 1800 rubles.
Wednesday	17.00-24.00	RUB 300	1,5d * 7 hours * 300 rubles / hour = 3150 rubles.	2d * 7 hours * 300 rubles / hour = 4200 rubles.
24.00-6.00	RUB 300	1d * 6 hours * 300 rubles / hour = 1800 rubles.	2d * 6 hours * 300 RUB / hour -3600 RUB
Thursday Sunday	12.00-17.00	240 RUB	1,5d * 5 hours * 240 rubles / hour = 1800 rubles.	2d * 5 hours * 240 rubles / hour = 2400 rubles.
17.00-24.00	RUB 540	1,5d * 7 hours * 540 rubles / hour = 5670 rubles.	2d * 7h * 540 RUB / hour -7560 RUB
24.00-6.00	RUB 540	1d * 6 hours * 540 RUB / hour = 3240 RUB	2d * 6 hours * 540 RUB / hour = 6480 RUB
Friday Saturday	12.00-17.00	240 RUB	1d * 5 hours * 240 rubles / hour = 1200 rubles.	2d * 5 hours * 240 rubles / hour = 2400 rubles.
17.00-24.00	540 RUB	2d * 7h * 540 RUB / hour = 7560 RUB	2d * 7 hours * 540 RUB / hour = 7560 RUB
24.00-6.00	RUB 540	1,5d * 6 hours * 540 rubles / hour = 4860 rubles.	2d * 6 hours * 540 RUB / hour = 6480 RUB

Table 6 shows information about the expected and maximum income that the 21st century restaurant should receive from bowling for one week, month, year.

Table 6 - Income from bowling in the 21st century restaurant for 1 week, month, year

Based on the data on the prices and incomes of competitors, the Bowling Center price list was developed, on the basis of which the expected income was calculated.

Table 7 provides information on the expected and maximum income that the entertainment club "Bowling Center" expects to receive from bowling for one week.

Table 7 - Income from bowling in the entertainment club "Bowling Center" for 1 week

Days of the week	Time	Price, for 1 hour	Expected income	Maximum income
Monday Tuesday	12.00-17.00	RUB 100	2d * 2 hours * 100 rubles / hour = 400 rubles.	4d * 5 hours * 100 rubles / hour = 2000 rubles.
Wednesday	17.00-24.00	RUB 200	2,5d * 7 hours * 200 rubles / hour = 3500 rubles.	4d * 7h * 200 rub / hour
24.00-4.00	RUB 200	2d * 4hours * 200 rubles / hour = 16О0 rubles.	4d * 4h * 200 rub / hour
Thursday Sunday	12.00-17.00	RUB 160	2,5d * 5h * 210 rubles / hour = 2625 rubles.	4d * 5h * 210 RUB / hour = 4200 RUB
17.00-24.00	270 RUB	3 days * 7 hours * 400 RUB / hour -8400 RUB	4d * 7h * 400 rub / hour
24.00-4.00	RUB 380	2d * 4 hours * 500 rubles / hour = 4000 rubles.	4d * 4hours * 500 rub / hour
Friday Saturday	12.00-17.00	RUB 160	3d * 5hours * 210 rubles / hour = 3150 rubles.	4d * 5h * 210 RUB / hour = 4200 RUB
17.00-24.00	RUB 300		4d * 7 hours * 400 rubles / hour = 11200 rubles.
24.00-4.00	270 RUB	3d * 4hours * 500 rub / hour	4d * 4h * 400ru6 / hour

Table 8 contains information about the expected and maximum income that the entertainment club "Bowling Center" should receive from bowling for one week, month, year.

Table 8 - Income from bowling in the entertainment club "Bowling Center" for 1 week, month, year

Table 9 shows the expected and maximum incomes of the Bowling Center entertainment club, the 21st century restaurant, and the Globus entertainment club for 1 year.

Table 9 - Expected and maximum incomes of the Bowling Center of the Globus entertainment club, the 21st century entertainment club

Thus, the estimated income of the Bowling Center is less than the income of the Globus club, but more income entertainment club "21st century" for this service.

Restaurant "21st century"

Entertainment club "Globus".

Here are the comparative characteristics of competitors.

Table 10 - Comparative characteristics competitors of the Bowling Center

Both competitors are strong enough and hold strong positions in the market. The 21st Century restaurant is located in the city center, the price for services is slightly lower than that of the Globus, but the parking lot is relatively small, which plays an important role when choosing a vacation spot, since most consumers of this type of service have their own vehicles. The entertainment club "Globus" is located in the center of the South - West district of the city, has a fairly large parking lot and a number of additional services, but the price for services is slightly higher.

Market capacity is the potential or actual volume of sales in a given territory over a given period of time.

The market capacity will be determined by the method based on consumption rates.

Where H is the rate of service consumption per one inhabitant;

H is the population size of a given territory.

According to statistics, bowling centers are visited by every 15 residents of the city, and the population of Kirov is 500,000 people.

H = 1/15 = 0.07

E = 0.07 * 500,000 = 35,000 people.

Market capacity is upper limit the volume of sales that can be planned in a business project. But the firm cannot claim the entire market due to the presence of competitors. Therefore, to assess the possible volume of sales, we determine the market share of the company: we divide the market capacity by the total number of competitors equal in strength:

35000/3 = 11667 people

3. The essence of the proposed project

Bowling is a game that anyone can play.

This type of service satisfies the need for recreation and is a product with a variable demand, since there are many alternatives to meet this need.

The presence of two rather strong competitors, which have been on this market for a long period of time, determines some difficulties in the entry of Bowling Center to the market:

· Image of firms;

· Loyal attitude of consumers;

· Good location;

· Availability of additional services;

· Long stay on the market.

To overcome these difficulties, the business plan proposes the following:

· Opening of the center with participation famous people cities;

· Favorable location - Lepse square.

Additional services (free parking, cafes, children's playrooms, billiards)

This service can be used by almost anyone.

In order to attract more customers, it is proposed to introduce daytime discounts for students and students, as well as to introduce a bonus program for regular customers.

4. Production plan

Some of the most famous bowling equipment suppliers are VPSBouling, Bowling Service Plus, VIABoulingProducts, Bowling Master and Bowling League.

You should not start with choosing an equipment supplier, but with finding a reliable partner who will not only calculate a business plan, but also help you implement it. BOWLING LEAGUE is a reliable and powerful partner in building a bowling business.

BOWLING LEAGUE is the first largest, independent company that is the leader in the Russian bowling industry market. In 1996 "LEAGUE OF BOWLING" opened bowling for Russia, presenting such large companies like AMF, Brunswick, YangjiVision, Zhonglu and Dacos. From 1996 to 1999, BOWLING LEAGUE was the exclusive agent of AMF in Russia. In 1999, BOWLING LEAGUE began operating as an independent company.

The specification for new bowling equipment for 4 lanes is presented in Appendix A.

Location and surrounding area

Convenient access to the building should be provided from the side of the main transport highways. It is desirable that there is a bus stop nearby. There should be enough space for a car park, and the car park itself should be located not far from the entrances to the building.

From this point of view, the Bowling Center will have an advantageous location: Lepse Square is the intersection of many bus and trolleybus routes. You can also use the recently opened, but popular "Red & Blac" club to attract customers.

Building

The building and the surrounding area should be a complete, comfortable and visually attractive complex. When renovating an old or planning a new bowling center, you need to consider appearance building that will be combined with the interior. The exterior façade of a building should be creative and eye-catching.

The floor plan is presented in Appendix B.

Advertising signs, both inside and outside, are an integral part of the bowling center, as they contain the information necessary for visitors and generally attract the attention of people.In addition to the sign, it is necessary to install several billboards that play the role of signs on the adjacent highways. Indoor commercial advertising can be a part of the interior as well as a significant part of a center's income. Among other forms of advertising for a bowling center, advertising in the local media is worth mentioning.

Interior

The bowling center's interior is largely determined by considerations of functionality and visitor convenience. The entrance to the bowling center should be planned in such a way that, when entering the premises, the visitor can immediately see everything that is happening on the lanes. It is also recommended to install two doorways with sufficiently wide and easy-to-open doors. The center manager's counter is a kind of bowling center focal point and should be raised in relation to the lanes. With this arrangement, the bowling area (pins and players' seats) is clearly visible. Wall graphics should not be brighter than the colors used on the camouflage panels above the pins.

Staff

Particular attention should be paid to the selection and training of personnel. Only qualified employees are able to support and promote this business. In Russia, there is an acute problem of a shortage of qualified personnel in general, and in the bowling industry in particular. BOWLING LEAGUE is the only company on the Russian market that recruits and trains qualified personnel to work in any area of ​​the bowling industry.

The bowling center's efficiency largely depends on how well-planned the bowling center is.

The required number of personnel is presented in Table 11.

Table 11 - Required number of personnel.

Wage fund

The salary of employees is set in the form of a monthly salary. Table 12 presents data on wages of employees of the entertainment club "Bowling Center" for 1 month.

Table 12 - Data on wages of employees of the entertainment club "Bowling Center" for the first month

Number of tracks and their width

The basis of any center is a track. The minimum number is one, and the maximum is as far as the size of the building allows. The track consists, in fact, of the cover (laminate), on which the ball rolls, the mechanism that returns the balls, and the mechanism that sets skittles. Different manufacturers call it differently - pinspotter or pinsetter. This is the heart of the bowling center. The pinsetter's main indicator is the time it takes to set the pins. As a rule, this time is 8-14 seconds.

The number of tracks and their minimum width are shown in Table 13.

Table 13 - number of tracks and their minimum width

Heating and air conditioning

Indoors, it is necessary to constantly maintain a temperature of 20-23 ° C with a relative humidity of 35-45%.

Engine room

Provision should be made for space (at least 2m 2 per car) for the pinspotters / pinsetters at the back of the tracks. Better to use double doors (1.83 m wide and 2.2 m high) so that the pinspotters / pinsetters can be brought into the building (and the engine room in particular). There must be a 1.2m (0.9m minimum) passage behind the pinspotters / pinsetters. Attention should be paid to soundproofing (the cars themselves are silent, but flying pins create a lot of noise).

Automatic scoring monitors

The system includes floor standing 14 "TV monitors (floor standing LCD consoles) and hanging 27", 29 "or 34" TV monitors supplied in the equipment package. Pendant monitors are mounted on a pendant form or main beam that can withstand a load of 200 kg. The ceiling height must be at least 3.10 m.

Required zones:

The central manager's desk (reception), where there is a control computer, a cash register, replaceable shoes are issued and the payment for bowling is made.

Office or manager's room.

Director's office.

Accountant's office.

Mechanics room or repair shop.

Warehouse for storing equipment supplied for bowling and
materials.

Wardrobe.

Men's and women's toilets.

Tracks

The DBA synthetic runners used by YjVision to complete their equipment are high quality, impact resistant 12mm laminate flooring. The track itself, the take-off area and the rest area are made of laminate using thermosetting homogenization technology. This means that the laminate from which the track is made is not subject to delamination throughout the entire service life (25 years). The track has a very high degree of impact resistance, which is necessary, given the specifics of the operation. Easy to clean and holds the conditioner perfectly. No more maintenance is required for these paths.

The track includes lateral grooves and spacer caps (cups) for easy access to the ball return system. In addition, all tracks are equipped with an infrared spade system. The surface of the track, take-off and rest areas glows in ultraviolet light, which makes the bowling center a special attraction for guests.

Ball return system

Agree, you don’t want to wait long when the newly thrown ball will return to you? This happens very often, but not on YjVision equipment. The ball return system is horizontal and equipped with an accelerator. This design ensures very fast operation of the mechanism and no damage to the ball!

The high ball return speed combined with the fastest pinsetter makes the game more dynamic and your bowling center guests will surely appreciate it.

Furniture

YjVision bowling center furniture represents the ultimate in comfort, strength and style. The seat system is injection-molded and thanks to its robustness it has an unlimited life. The shape of the seats allows you to make the game and rest of the bowling center guests comfortable and leave a favorable impression.

The V5 pinsetter is a first-class design and pride of YjVision's technicians and is the next generation of the V2 pinsetter. Replacement of the PCB control system (system with printed circuit boards) and the introduction of a fundamentally new control through a programmable controller - the PLC system increased the reliability and resistance of the equipment to shock loads by more than 25% and expanded the set modern functions pinsetters V5. management, among the offered models of machines on the market.

Control system type PLC (Programmable Controller)

It is a minicomputer manufactured by Mitsubishi, Japan. The PLC system is widely used in mechanical engineering and other high-tech industries for assembly and other purposes, as a control system where complex multifunctional synchronous actions are required.

Control systems PLC This:

Self-diagnosis of malfunctions with detailed error indication in the digital code on the control box. 100% identification of faults !!!;

Control blocks on the front and rear panels - for quick detection and elimination of breakdowns;

Training Modes for Players:

After each throw, the pinsetter sets all 10 pins to practice the strike;

The pinsetter sets the remaining pins until all pins are knocked down;

Automatic shutdown (power saving function);

Self-testing of all machine mechanisms after preventive maintenance or repair;

Emergency shutdown when the pin enters the ball return chute;

Fast cycle (with strike and spa throws, hitting extreme pins and after the second throw);

Electronic circuit protection (up to 30% power drop);

Double notification when an error is detected in the machine operation: signal to the operator and signal to the mechanic - error indication through the pinsetter emergency lamp;

Built-in voltage regulator, which extends the life of the machine and is an essential element of bowling equipment;

Fast pin setting system;

Out-ofrange function. The CCD camera counts pins that have moved from their standard position. There is no need to correct the account;

Fast horizontal ball return system (works faster than the vertical system by 3-5 seconds);

Electronic control of the ball return system;

The V5 pinsetter is a significantly modified version of the previous version of the V2 pinsetter. The efforts of the company's engineers to simplify the structure of the V2 pinsetter, improve its mechanics and electrical circuits have increased the reliability of the machine and led to a noticeable reduction in maintenance costs. For the convenience and safety of mechanics, walkways between machines and protective covers on the front and rear panels have been designed.

Service

Like any other mechanism, bowling equipment requires qualified maintenance. During the execution of the contract, the technical staff of your bowling center will be fully trained, receive all the necessary documentation and technical means.

The service center carries out warranty and post-warranty maintenance of YjVision equipment, supply of all necessary spare parts and consumables. At your service round-the-clock " hot line", on-line consultations and ordering of spare parts.

Scoring system VS-21

digital 3D rendering of animation screensavers. The dual focus of the tube allows you to reproduce the image with increased clarity and color reproduction;

14-inch floor consoles;

As a second option for the floor console
15 '' flat console offered
liquid crystal LCD display;

3-dimensional video graphics, allowing to show color animation pictures;

· Forty graphic images, more than 14 combinations of various games and other functions;

· To help the player - on-screen tips on how to knock down the remaining pins in the next throw;

· Possibility of TV and video broadcasts on monitors;

· The "Lock" function is installed in order to prevent the player from trying to change the operation of the control panel;

· At the end of the game, you can display the results of games of up to 20 players at the same time on the monitor or print the result.

Bowling center control system

· Full control over the bowling center;

· Allows easy and accurate settlements with bowling center guests;

· Possibility to choose the type of payment;

· Accounting for all taxes collected;

· The operation of the control system can be checked in the "Office" via LAN or modem;

· Functions for booking tracks, reports on revenue and statistics;

· Set up to 36 status codes for players;

· Tariff management depending on the day of the week, time and other programs;

· Ease of execution of current functions: entering and removing players, transferring players to other lines, etc.,

· Send messages to several lines at the same time and store up to 10 messages that are used most often;

· Control over many different functions at the same time;

· View and print the performance of each shot and the points scored for each player or team;

· Ability to view, summarize or print the total number of games and the number of sales, analysis of the results.

· Operation of the system is based on Windows 2000.

Decorative panels (masks)

With a wide variety of graphics, decorative panels play a large role in shaping the overall style of a bowling center. Lightweight decorative panel designs provide easy access for mechanics to pinsetters and skittles when needed. Masks are wear-resistant and easily replaceable. All panels are reversible and glow in UV light.

SATURN (Glow-m-the-Dark)

(Glow-in-the-Dark)

Delivery time: Moscow - 50 days after the conclusion of the contract. Installation time - 4-5 days per track, subject to the readiness of the site.

5. Marketing plan

Marketing research.

Research plan:

1) development of a questionnaire for a consumer survey;

2) conducting a survey;

3) interpretation of the results;

4) modeling and forecasting consumer demand for a service.

Questionnaire for polling potential consumers (Appendix C)

To conduct a marketing research, 50 people were interviewed. Only those consumers who want to play bowling were subject to the survey. During the survey, the following results were obtained, which are presented in table 14:

Table 14 - Summary table of survey results

but	b	in	G	d	e	f
1	14	11	8	23	X	X	X
2	30	20	X	X	X	X	X
3	50	0	X	X	X	X	X
4	5	5	8	4	13	14	13
	3	5	31	13	X	X	X
6	7	29	10	4	X	X	X
7	8	8	33	3	X	X	X
8	4	26	14	6	X	X	X
9	25	17	4	4	X	X	X
10	33	6	11	X	X	X	X
11	0	18	8	18	6	0	0
12	3	9	12	15	11	NS	X

Conclusion: potential consumers of bowling are social groups such as students, workers, employees and entrepreneurs.

The most preferred days of the week for playing are Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and the time of day is evening. The majority of consumers want to play bowling for 1 - 3 hours. On average, each respondent is ready to play bowling 1 - 2 times a week.

The amount that the consumer is willing to pay for one session of the game is the minimum of those offered and ranges from 200 - 300 rubles.

To determine the number of potential customers of our Bowling Center, survey data on age groups were transferred to the general population. The results are shown in Table 15.

Table 15 - Calculation of the number of potential customers of the Bowling Center

* The number of potential customers of the Bowling Center was determined based on the number of all potential customers and the number of competitors in the market.

As the practice of the Russian bowling industry shows, the sums spent on the construction of a bowling center pay off within 1.5-2 years (the return on investment can be longer only if capital construction, since the construction of a new building requires large sums).

In order for the bowling center to bring sustainable dividends, it is necessary to ensure that each lane is loaded daily for at least six and a half to seven hours (in practice, these numbers often turn out to be even higher). Based on this parameter, it will be possible to estimate the size of the club's revenue by calculating the daily, weekly and monthly profitability of one track and multiplying the resulting amount by their number.

6. Organizational plan

The organizational structure of the bowling center is presented in Appendix D.

The governance structure is presented in Appendix D.

The director's responsibilities include general management and strategic planning.

The duties of the deputy. director includes tactical and operational planning, control over the activities of all departments, a weekly report to the director on the work of the company.

The manager's responsibilities include keeping track of playing time, issuing special shoes and making payments to the players.

The responsibilities of a marketer include developing advertising companies, study of the environment, study of complaints and wishes of customers.

The technician is responsible for maintaining the play equipment.

The instructor's duties include teaching bowling.

The duties of the security service are to ensure law and order in the hall and in the parking lot.

The duties of the service personnel include ensuring cleanliness and order directly in the playing hall, as well as in the lobby of the building.

The qualification requirements for employees are presented in table 16.

Table 16 - Qualification requirements for employees

Profession	Description of the work performed	Skill level	average salary
Director	General leadership		20000
Deputy director	Strategic management	Higher education, work experience	15000
Accountant	Cash accounting	Higher education, work experience, knowledge of 1C.	11000
Manager	Working in the game room	Higher education	8000
Marketer	Work with clients	Higher education, work experience	9000
Technician	Equipment service	Technical education, work experience	9000
the instructor	Learning to play	5000
Cloakroom attendant	Reception of clothes	5000
Security guard	Ensuring law and order	7000
Cleaning woman	Cleaning of premises	4000

Management personnel must necessarily have higher education and work experience. For the director and deputy. directors' work experience must be in managerial positions. The accountant must also have a higher education and work experience, as well as own the 1C program.

Managers and marketers must also have college degrees and work experience.

Service personnel can be accepted without higher education and work experience, but the technician must have a technical background.

Cloakroom attendants, security guards and cleaners can be hired without work experience and special education, but must be free of bad habits.

Recruitment can be carried out both through a recruiting agency and using personal connections.

7. Risk assessment

It is very important to be able to anticipate difficulties and develop a strategy to overcome risks in advance.

To take into account the risk factor in business planning, we will apply an analysis of the sensitivity of a business project to a deterioration in business conditions. In this case, the change is determined financial results from the implementation of the project in the event of risky events, expressed in a decrease in the company's revenue or an increase in costs.

8. Financial plan

Area calculations:

210m - to the playing area;

8 m 2 - wardrobe;

7 m 2 - men's and women's toilet;

75 m 2 - service rooms.

The total area is 300 m 2.

Based on the fact that the average price for 1 m2 of non-residential area in the Lepse area is 10 thousand rubles, and the average price of finishing 1 m2 is 400 rubles, the total cost of the Bowling Center premises will be:

RUB 10,400 * 300 m 2 = 3,120,000 rubles.

The initial cost of setting up a Bowling Center entertainment club is calculated using the following formula:

Рп = Рз + Ро, where Рп - initial expenses;

Рз - expenses for the construction of a building of 300 m 2;

Ro - expenses for the purchase of equipment (4 play tracks and the whole

set of equipment for them $ 150,000 (USD exchange rate 27 rubles)

Rp = 3120 thousand rubles + 405 thousand rubles. = 7170 thousand rub.

Table 17 - Costs of organizing a business

Profit: 4188000 - 17100 - 67813 - 192000 - 9360 - 233950 - 753840 - 499200 - 157850 = 2256887

Net profit: 2256887 - 541652.88 = 1715234.12

9. Funding strategy

The need for investment in this case is equal to the cost of the equipment. Sources of financing can be: enterprise profit, bank loans, etc.

To assess the effectiveness of investments, the following system of indicators is used:

1. Net present value - an estimate of the present value of income:

where is the total cash flow for period j, including net profit and depreciation charges for this period minus the amount of investments for the same period;

e - discount rate;

N is the ordinal number of the period j.

NPV = (1715234.12 + 233950) * (1 + 0.2) -12 = 1738670.34 rubles.

2 The payback period is the period of time in which the discounted cash flow on an accrual basis changes its sign from “minus” to “plus”. Let's calculate it as the ratio of initial expenses to net profit:

Payback period: 7170000 / 1715234.12 = 4.18

Bibliography

1. The Civil Code of the Russian Federation - the official text. - M .; "ELITE Publishing House", 2004, 384 p.

2. Azoev GL Methods for assessing the capacity of the market // Marketing and marketing research in Russia # 6 - 1999 - p. 43-48.

3. Business plan and business planning - the basis of sustainable financial condition enterprises. Recommendations for drawing up a business plan / CJSC "Corporation Center"

4. Kotler F. Fundamentals of Marketing: trans. from English - M .: Rostinter, 2003 .-- 704 p.

The problems of systems thinking based on the tensor approach are considered. An attempt is made to give a definition to the concept of "system", as well as to define the properties that an object must have in order for it to be called a system.

The concept of "system" has been used and studied for a long time and in almost all spheres of human activity. Particular interest in it was shown in the 60-80s, when the fundamental works on the general theory of systems appeared. However, most modern authors note that there are still no methods of not only synthesis, but also analysis of systems that could be applied in any field of activity. Some publications even conclude that it is pointless to try to define the system. In our opinion, the complexity of the problem should not stop people from exploring such an interesting phenomenon and concept as a system.

Systems thinking is characterized by an internal contradiction, which manifests itself in the paradox of integrity and the paradox of hierarchy. The paradox of integrity implies that when analyzing a system, it must be dismembered, but at the same time the properties of the integrity of the system disappear. The paradox of hierarchy lies in the need to describe a system as an element of a supersystem, etc. In turn, to describe systemic thinking, as such, it is also necessary to use non-systemic concepts.

Despite these difficulties, the ideas of the systems approach are widely used in the socio-economic, political, military spheres, in biology, psychology, computing, information theory, linguistics, etc.

The main ideas of the systematic approach were presented in the works of famous scientists A.A. Bogdanov, L. Bertalanfi, N. Wiener, V.I. Sadovsky, M.I. Setrova, G.P. Melnikov, M. Mesarovich and Y. Takahara, K. Bowling, Yu.A. Shreider, Yu.A. Urmantseva, A.I. Uemova and others.

The objectives of this article did not include a detailed discussion of all publications devoted to the essence of systems, therefore the author apologizes to everyone whose works are not mentioned in this text.

The most complete critical analysis of publications on general systems theory is given by A. Grin, with the help of which we highlight the main contradictions in defining the system, in particular, from the analyzed works it follows that the main features of the system are:

1) the presence of an integral structure that provides the system with new integrative qualities;

2) clearly fixed position of elements in relation to each other and the whole;

3) the existence of a goal or functional orientation;

4) hierarchical structure.

A. Grin showed that, in the general case, the system may not possess any of these features, since the structure of the system may be indefinite, and therefore, its elements cannot be fixed, the system may be non-purposeful and not have a definite function. In his opinion, the functional and structural definition of the system is not constructive. The most general definition of the system can be found in N. Wiener, in particular, he believes that the meaning of the systems approach lies in the idea of ​​a "black box", the study of which is carried out by studying its reactions to the influences exerted on it.

A. Grin refers to the systemic features: the boundary of the system, openness, i.e. flow, implying that various types of flows (system-forming flows) flow through the system and, finally, a qualitative unique change in the system-forming flow at the input and output of the system. Identifying streams and defining system boundaries is a non-trivial task in a systems approach.

S.I. Matorin notes that a big drawback of the system approach is that the method of analyzing the system is determined not only by the purpose of the analysis, but also by the analyst's subjective decision, since this method is not a priori defined. A similar problem arises during the synthesis of a system (assembly from parts of a whole), since there are no formal operations on a set of parts, although it is declared that when the parts are connected, a new property is formed (a system effect, as a property of the whole). S.I. Matorin proposes the following definition of a system as a functional object, the function of which is determined by the function of an object of a higher tier, i.e., a supersystem. The function of the system is manifested, first of all, in the functional connections of this system with other systems that make up its neighborhood conditions in a certain supersystem. In this case, the system itself consists of functional objects of a lower tier (subsystems (elements) that make up its substance), creating its structure with their functional connections and supporting the function (functional connections) of the system. The connection is considered as an exchange between systems and some elements, which are substances of certain deep tiers of related systems. S.I. Matorin develops the so-called functional systemology, a feature of which is the relationship of maintaining the functional ability of the whole and irreducible to relationships between sets and indescribable by set-theoretic means.

I.V. Prangishvili believes that the systemic approach is a set of methods and tools that allow one to study the properties, structure and functions of objects, phenomena or processes, presenting them as systems with all complex inter-element relationships, the interaction of elements on the system and on the environment, as well as the influence of the system into its structural elements. According to I.V. Prangishvili and V.I. Sadovsky, there are four main features that an object, phenomenon, or individual facets (slices) must possess in order for them to be considered a system. These include: a sign of the integrity and articulation of the object; a sign of stable connections between the elements of the system; a sign of the presence of an integrative (systemic) property; a sign of the organization of developing systems. When classifying systems I.V. Prangishvili proposes to use a substantial feature, according to which four classes of systems are distinguished: artificial, natural, ideal (conceptual) and virtual systems.

In our opinion, the concept of consistency in most systemic approaches is either replaced by the concept of structure, or functionality, or quality. For these purposes, such concepts as integrity, development, integrativity, etc. are widely used. In our opinion, the most appropriate methodological tool in the study of systems is the tensor methodology, and our vision of the tensor approach to systems is given in.

There are two views on systems. One is static, in which the processes occurring in the system are not considered, the other is dynamic, which includes these processes. Processes in systems are flows of some quantities under the influence of other quantities, which proceed in some paths formed by the components of the structures of these systems.

A.E. Petrov notes that there is no mathematical apparatus that combines both structure and metric (function). However, electrical circuits and their descriptions are the most suitable way to model circuits (structures) and processes at the same time. Processes in electrical circuits are well modeled by Ohm's law, and the structure of circuits is described by Kirchhoff's laws. In the tensor approach, space is understood not as a continuous geometric space, but as a space-structure, which is discrete and consists of structure components. The sets of paths in these structures are used as coordinate systems, and changes to the structure or selection of a different path are treated as coordinate transformations. In this text, we will be guided by the following principles:

Physical abstraction: any element of the universe of the Universe irreversibly moves in time together with the Universe, relatively in space (geometric) and in the universe (belonging) of the Universe;

Additional features: the elements of the universe of the Universe, in addition to the corpuscular nature, have a wave property and a property of complexity (self-organization);

Reflectivity: the elements of the universe of the Universe have the property of reflection, both in themselves and in other elements of this universe and other universes of the Universe.

In our opinion, discreteness is a property of the individual, as primary in relation to the general, while in general discretes (corpuscles) cannot be superimposed on each other; continuity is a property of the whole, as primary in relation to its parts (quanta), while the parts (quanta) can overlap each other, that is, they can be partially or completely included in each other. Complexity is a property of a dynamic organization, as primary in relation to its members (simple), and the division of the complex into simple members leads to the disappearance of the complex, for example, the dismemberment of the brain for the purpose of its functional study cannot give a result.

In accordance with the principle of reflectivity, the Universe is cognizable, and cognition is carried out through sensory perception, reflection in the human brain and logical interpretation and explanation of the essence of the elements of the universe of the Universe. In this regard, cognitive principles can be formulated:

Systemic: the elements of the universe of the Universe are considered as a system if it includes at least two elements from different universes of the Universe, producing a property that is absent from each element separately, and also the property of belonging to its own universals is preserved; - logical: an element of the universe of the Universe, considered as a subject of research, should have three-fold properties: sufficiency, necessity and coherence.

If we introduce the concept of "system", then according to the well-known principle of "Occam's razor" it should not be reduced to already used terms, but have its own unique content. To do this, it is necessary to separate the concepts of "object" and "system", which is not an easy task, since the concept of "object" is no less complex than a system.

A.I. Uemov believes that a thing, an object and an object are synonymous. He provides an analysis of these concepts in the literature and compares them with the concepts of body, separateness, individuality. In the traditional understanding, the concept of "thing" coincides with the concept of "body", and under "body" is meant a thing that has a boundary (volume), which is defined by its separateness in geometric space. The traditional understanding of a thing and a body leads to serious difficulties, for example, the well-known paradox with the ship of Theseus, in which all the boards are successively replaced. Modern physics has proven that classical space-time continuity does not apply to the world of particles. In quantum (wave) physics, the motion of both a single particle and their aggregate cannot be determined, but only represented by some formation that has a certain density and probability of detecting particles. It follows that the same thing can be in different places at the same time, and different things at the same time in one place, which is contrary to common sense. A.I. Uemov, on this basis, believes that the space-time criterion is not sufficient for the individualization of the same things in the aggregate. He believes that to separate things from each other, it is necessary to use the property of the quality of things. The concept of the qualitative boundary of things was formulated by Hegel. In a qualitatively homogeneous environment, it makes no sense to single out any of its parts. On the other hand, qualitatively different things, for example, electromagnetic and gravitational fields may not have any boundaries in space at all. A.I. Uemov developed the concept of a thing to the concept of a system, in particular, that a thing (object) is a system of qualities, and different things are different systems of qualities. He believes that a system is any object in which there is any relation that has a predetermined property. Thus, to identify two things, there is no need to compare all their points, but rather to compare their boundaries. If the boundaries of things intersect, then they are indistinguishable and identical. At the same time, here we mean not only space-time boundaries, but also qualitative ones. Changes are quantitative, space-time, if they do not lead to a qualitative (significant) change in a thing, do not lead to the disappearance of identity.

Just as we distinguish parts of space or intervals of time, A.I. Uemov distinguishes between parts of the quality of things or a system of qualities. For example, he considers the electric and magnetic components of the electromagnetic field as special things, representing subsystems of one system of qualities. He believes that two things are identical, that is, they are one thing, if any change in quality that transforms one of them also transforms the other, therefore he supports the principle of indistinguishability as a basis for identifying things. The concept of the quality of a thing is relative, since if any states of water are attributed to the universal "water", then the aggregate of ice and water in a closed volume will determine the generalized quality of the object.

Identity in the dialectical understanding is also relative, it contains a moment of difference. A.I. Uemov gives an example: a juvenile delinquent after correction in the Makarenko colony, from a physiological point of view, is the same person, but in socially they are completely different people. He believes that a qualitative understanding of a thing allows it to be used for ideal things, to which he refers to systems of signs of representations of objectively existing qualities. On the other hand, abstract entities, for example, such as a process, in the qualitative sense are also things, such as, for example, a chair.

The terms "thing" and "quality" have undergone significant changes since the time of Hegel and no longer correspond to the meaning of the very concepts that they named. In our opinion, at this stage of the development of society, it is necessary to give these concepts new terms. The juxtaposition of spatio-temporal and qualitative properties of things is incorrect. The trinity of the spatio-temporal material phenomenon is manifested in the trinity of temporal, spatial and elemental properties. In turn, the element of the universe of the Universe can be viewed as a triunity of the properties of the carrier, the aggregate of the "qualities of a thing" or, in our opinion, the object properties and properties of the "communicant", that is, the properties of connections that are formed in relation to a given element. The carrier of an object is a material and / or material object, on (in) which a real or / and an ideal or / and an abstract object is displayed or reflected. The subject of an object is at least one essential property of an object. The communicant of an object is at least one property of a connection that arises in the environment of an object in relation to the object itself. Currently, the word "quality" has many meanings, but the most common meaning refers to the quality of products, therefore, under the philosophical category "quality" we mean the following. Qualitative properties, in our opinion, are objective (essential) properties that are objective in their essence, but also subjective since they are chosen by the researcher based on their goals.

Different researchers of the same element or object can observe it in different environments and with different sides for example, one observer can only study structural properties, and another only functional ones. People, even well-known objects, perceive ambiguously, for example, a circle drawn on a plane is perceived as an ellipse when viewed from an oblique angle. The color of a colored object will change depending on the color of the light with which this object is irradiated, therefore the property of the object is the result of the manifestation of the connection of at least two elements. If we take into account that the object and its property are chosen by the subject, then the property is a potential opportunity to produce a response of a certain type in the subject. On the other hand, the property of color is the property of the universal of all colors. It is known that the color spectrum is modeled in the form of a standardized universal (catalog) of color plates, in which there is a named discrete set of certain color shades, with which the color of specific elements is determined.

Any theoretical consideration of some issues always creates an idealized model of real processes, phenomena or an even more simplified model of their real components, as a rule, they operate with the concept of an "object of research". This is done in order to identify essential concepts and their connections, with the help of which it is possible to obtain some dependencies, including quantitative ones, which are then used in practice. Elements, objects and their properties are assigned certain terms and given their definitions, representing concepts. By "concept" we mean an abstract object, that is, an individualized set of functional properties and connections between them, to which the subject responds. Based on the principle of reflectivity, an element is reflected in itself, as well as in other elements, therefore, the property of reflectivity manifests itself in the form of ideal and abstract elements, which are, respectively, a reflection of real (material-material) elements and a reflection of reflection, that is, a reflection elements that do not really exist. Thus, in addition to real elements, it is possible to distinguish ideal and abstract ones.

The real object of research is a reflection of the real element of the universe of the Universe, or as it is also called "a piece of reality". This object can either display itself, that is, be the given element, or display something different from the given element and, finally, display the display. As a rule, if an object does not display itself, but some real elements, then this object is called an ideal object. If the object displays a mapping, that is, elements that do not really exist, then such objects are called abstract. Reflection must be considered in two forms, as a process of reflection and as a product of the process of reflection. On the other hand, reflections must be distinguished from display. Reflection, as a product of the process of reflection, is alienated from what it reflects, but not alienated from what it is reflected on, that is, the carrier of the reflection. For example, a reflection in the human brain is a kind of intellectual product of thought, but not expressed in the form of a word, gesture, sound, etc. Reflection in this case is not alienated from the carrier until it is expressed. The display is alienated from reflection, since, for example, it can be expressed (manifested) on another medium. A display can be referred to as an information product that either displays itself, or something other than itself, or displays a display. In this sense, incarnation is a reflection in the form of some material (materialized) product that exists in the form of a carrier, alienated from the subject, and embodies the intellectual product expressed by the subject.

When a researcher individualizes and describes an object, he actually places it in a categorical space and selects a set of certain categories, within the limits of the transformations of which, he determines the properties of the object. In this case, the researcher is not interested in changing the object itself (it is assumed that it remains unchanged in the process of movement), but in changing its representation through simpler objects or components, which can be considered as some properties of the object, expressed by the elementary carriers of these properties. Thus, the decomposition of an object into its constituent categorical simpler objects can be interpreted as a representation of an object in a particular coordinate system of a certain categorical space, and the set of components of this space may not form a vector, and the coordinate axes may represent incommensurable quantities. Let's call this space - the categorical Universe. The space of the Universe under consideration is not geometric, the dimensions of the coordinate axes in it are not the same, and along each category axis one can construct a similar category universe. For example, the coordinate of the world line L in a three-dimensional categorical space (L, T, G) can be represented as a triplet of coordinates (X, Y, Z) in an ordinary geometric space L> (X, Y, Z), where T is time, G - the elemental nature of the universe of the Universe. The Universe is an undefined term for the self-evident Universe that surrounds and is in us. The Universe of the Universe is an elementary property of belonging to the Universe (an element of the Universe). An element of the universe of the Universe is an elementary property of belonging to the universe of the Universe (an element of an element of the Universe). Elementality is the property of being an element of a certain set (universe) or an indefinite set (the Universe). An element is an elementary part of a whole, a discrete of the general and a member (simple) of a complex. Isolation is the property of being distinct from a certain aggregate (universal), that is, the possession of at least one special property that is absent in a given universe. Belonging is a property of connectivity, that is, the possession of a potential or real connection, for example, an element can belong to itself or another element, as well as to the universe, for example, a class, type, reflection, etc., that is, an element has, at least one connection or one common (generalized) property with the universal. Universe is an isolated set of elements united by the property of belonging (boundary) and an elementary component (belonging) of the Universe.

The model of the Universe can be represented in the form of some homogeneous medium consisting of elements, in a particular case, of points. When we isolate an element from the environment, then we understand that the object representing this element must consist of at least two points that have the simplest structure (dipole), since a point has no structure, but only has the property of location if do not count the temporary property and the property of belonging. In contrast to the categorical point, the real point, in addition, has geometric, kinematic and basic mechanical properties.

Therefore, when a real element is individualized from the environment, it is a physical individual - a set of two or more real points that occupy a certain volume in geometric space at a certain moment or period of time. By "real element" we mean a material-material element that has a material (corpuscular) nature, that is, a body that occupies a certain geometric space, has a mass of rest and inertia and is fixed by an observer in certain time or (and) having a material (wave, quantum) nature, i.e. not having a fixed body, for example, electromagnetic radiation, etc.

By "individual" (functional), in accordance with, we mean the set of properties to which the subject A responds in the environment of the choice S, if: 1) this set of properties almost certainly produces a response R from A to S; 2) elimination of any property from this set reduces the probability R from A to S practically to zero; 3) no other set of properties satisfies conditions 1) and 2). The response of, for example, element (X) is an event occurring with X, accompanied by X and another event.

Due to the fact that there is no single approach to the concepts of "attribute, property, object", we will consider them for the purpose of unambiguous interpretation in this text. Although we believe that a property of an element is something that belongs to a given element independently of its observer, however, in a functional sense, a property refers to how it can affect the observer under certain circumstances. We notice the weight of a body if it requires a certain effort to lift it, or if, having placed this body on a scale, we see the deflection of the arrow and thereby respond to its weight. Although specific properties are objective in nature, they are at the same time subjective, since they are selected in accordance with the interests of the researcher. By "property" we mean the potential to produce a response of a certain type in a subject in a given environment of choice. We will assume that a property as a category consists of features, proper properties and patterns, this is how a certain type of properties is called in the English-language literature. A property is a manifestation of a connection, action or interaction, at least between two elements, which is inseparable from the element under study and which is a potential producer of the response of the studying subject to this property. A trait is a degenerate property or property of a property, and which can produce structural changes in the characteristic response of the subject. A property itself is a combination of at least three features, necessary, sufficient features and a sign of connectivity to produce functional changes in the characteristic response of the subject. A pattern is an indefinite set of features to which the subject functionally responds in the environment of choice, but not always, but only under certain circumstances (conditions). Attribute is a property that has no quantitative characteristics, for example, the principle of operation of a device.

Any real object of material-material nature must have temporal (kinematic), spatial (geometric) and material-material (mechanical) properties, as well as properties represented by their functions, in particular, physical and morphological. The physical properties can be attributed to the temperature of an object, since it can be represented through the rms velocity of point particles of the object. Mechanical properties include rest mass and inertia, speed, acceleration of an object. Morphological properties include many physical properties, each of which is the same function of the same temporal, spatial and mechanical properties, the values ​​of which lie in the interval I ± K, where I is the value on the measurement scale, and K is some value is greater than zero on this scale. When they say that two bodies have the same temperature, then this means that the values ​​of the temperatures of the bodies fall into the same temperature range (say 70 ± 0.5 °).

As a rule, an "object" is understood as a structural concept of an element, it characterizes its structural properties, ie, geometric, kinematic, basic mechanical, physical or morphological properties or a combination of these properties. Object - a set of objective and subjective properties of an element of the universe of the Universe, which can be individually described and investigated. The object of research is taken from a certain environment (environment, material environment) and therefore must be investigated in a similar environment. Object and environment are relative concepts. You can think of an environment as an object, and an object as an environment. The environment refers to objects that are not part of the investigated object, however, changes in the environment can produce changes in the object and vice versa. The object and as a reflection of the element of the universe of the Universe is manifested in the form of a connection, at least, between two properties of the element or elements and which is deliberately selected and considered by the subject as a set of properties and is a potential producer of the subject's response to this element.

A real object can be decomposed into the following categorical components of the projection:

A degenerate real object that reflects itself or a specific real element (sample);

Actually a real object that represents a specific set of real elements;

A typical real object that represents a typical representative of an indefinite collection of real elements.

An ideal object can be decomposed into the following categorical components of the projection:

A degenerate ideal object that reflects a specific real object;

An ideal object itself, which reflects a collection of real objects, or a generalized object or concept;

An absolute ideal object that reflects a real object, but has unreal properties, for example, an absolutely rigid body, or a free object, that is, not connected with anything.

An abstract object or object of thought (noumenon) can be decomposed into the following categorical components of the projection:

A degenerate abstract object that reflects a reflection of a real object, such as a lion symbol;

Actually an abstract object that reflects something that does not really exist, for example, the goddess Aphrodite or abstract;

An absolutely abstract object that reflects what is unknown.

The concept of "structure" is closely related to the concept of "object". Structure (structural property) - at least two related properties of an object, ensuring its integrity, generality, complexity, and characterizing the mutual arrangement and connection (structure) of a set of elements (nodes) included in the structure. A node of a structure (a nodal property) is an element of a structure or at least one property of a connection, for example, an isolated magnet has lines of force that are closed to itself.

When describing objects, the concept of "composition" is widely used. In our opinion, the object, in addition to structural properties, has domain properties. Domain (domain property) - an element of an object that characterizes the physical, chemical, biological, mental, social, logical properties, etc. properties of the object. Composition (property of composition) - a set of domains (ingredient) included in the object. Ingredients are a standardized set of elements that can be part of an object.

Objects are studied, as a rule, on the basis of the study of individual objects. A separate object is an object that reflects a specific element of the universe of the Universe and has the properties of a carrier, an object and a communicant, as well as having a name and meaning. Object name - An identifier assigned to an object in order to distinguish an object from other objects. Object value - at least one value on at least one comparison scale (name, order, measurement).

Objects are often characterized by the presence of multidimensionality, poor knowledge and uniqueness, the absence of some factors that determine their state and behavior. Information about such an object is recorded in the form of a set of descriptions of the properties of the selected observation units. These units can be individual objects, collections of objects, or streams of objects. Usually, an individual unit of research, regardless of its specific nature, is called an "object".

The properties of objects are studied using measurement procedures, when each object is associated with a certain value, level, gradation, characteristics of an indicator, a parameter expressing a given property, including in the form of a connectivity property, that is, links between objects for a given property ... As a rule, when analyzing the data of any objects, the analysis of the values ​​of indicators describing the properties of the set of objects under consideration is carried out. Among the tasks of data analysis, presented in the form of three tables (table of contiguity of properties, table of object-property and table of object-to-object connectivity), the assessment of relationships between properties, assessment of relationships between objects, classification of objects, construction of new aggregated properties (factors) are distinguished. , which more compactly and rationally describe the behavior of the object.

The main table is the object-property table, in which the rows of the table correspond to the objects, and the columns to the properties. The intersection of the i-row and k-column contains the value of the k-property, which it takes on the i-th object. In general, the object is specified by the number i = 1… n, and the property values ​​are x1, x2… xn. Each xk property is materialized in the table through an object. Such a table can be transposed, that is, it can change rows into columns and vice versa, if the table contains values ​​obtained for the same objects at different times.

If we denote the set of objects R, and their number is N, then the property X means the mapping X: R> Bx, which assigns to each object i? R its value x (i) belonging to the set of values ​​Bx of property X.

Many Bx values ​​can be of different nature. For example, if the property values ​​are letters of the alphabet, then this type of property is called nominal, classification, or in the naming scale. In this case, each value or name S? Bx corresponds to the group x-1 (s) = (i / x (i) = s). If a property specifies some kind of ordering, then it is called rank or ordinal. If the ordering has no direction, then such properties are called similarity properties.

Consideration only of structural and domain properties is not constructive when it is necessary to study objects, the structure and domain composition of which are unknown. In this regard, N. Wiener proposed to study only the functional properties of an object in the form of a system or "black box". However, in other cases the structure is known and at the same time it is continuously rebuilt, which naturally affects the functions of the object. In many cases, a person needs to control this structure and functions of an object in order not to get harmful effects on the environment. In this aspect, we will consider the so-called problem of causality and the fundamental features of various types of relationships. Connection (connection property) - forces and interactions that determine the existence of at least two elements, that is, the possibility of one element affecting another.

Communication occurs due to certain natural or artificial forces of interaction. At the same time, we can distinguish a connection between two states (temporal properties) of one object in time (cause-effect) or a connection between two objects in geometric space, for example, due to the force of gravitational attraction, or a connection between an element and its universe. In social systems, communication arises under the action of a certain will of subjects with a specific purpose and in accordance with a certain logic. The connection universal-element is potentially reversible, since the element can be universal. In geometrical space, interaction is potentially reversible and manifests itself in the form of an effect-phenomenon and phenomenon-effect relationship. Temporary causal relationship, unlike the two above, is irreversible, despite the fact that the same phenomenon repeats, it repeats at different intervals.

By "function" we mean the property of producing something, as a property of a functional class, for example, a sundial and a spring clock form a class whose property is the property of producing - indicating time, although they are structurally different. Function is at least one property that characterizes the impact, the influence of one object on another, including itself, and ensures the appearance of any result (change or lack thereof) or the achievement of any goal. For example, a refrigerator is designed for transportation in time, without significant changes in food, and the function of a car is to transport along the roads in geometric space from point A of a given environment to point B, and, finally, in the space of belonging, converters can be distinguished, the functions of which include transformation some states of objects into others (the juicer produces juice from fruits and vegetables, the electromagnetic circuit converts the energy of an electric source into electromagnetic oscillations and radiation).

Thus, a functional property characterizes the ability to transform one state into another, that is, it establishes a correspondence between two states of one object, or between two objects (before and after transformation). The state, for example, of an element at a certain moment in time is a set of essential properties that an element possesses at that moment in time. An event is a change in at least one structural and functional property over a period of time of a certain duration. The existence of an element of the universe of the Universe implies that this element belongs to a certain universe, in a particular case, for example, that this element is a product of a producer, for example, the same element can be represented by a caterpillar, pupa and butterfly. The transformation of an object is possible only as long as any of its properties remains unchanged. If all the properties of an object have changed, then there has been a transformation of one object into another. Thus, a function is a property of ongoing processes in the object or processes of interaction outside the object with other objects and the environment.

In our opinion, three categorical projections of functional transformations can be distinguished: 1) degenerate, that is, transformations or changes that occur in the object itself; 2) the actual transformations that occur over interacting objects; 3) undefined transformations that can occur under certain circumstances in an object or environment.

Reflection is a separate type of transformation. In our opinion, reflection includes: 1) scaling (self-reflection); 2) mirror reflection, in which the left becomes the right; 3) deformation, including discontinuities, subject to the constancy of a certain value that characterizes the object of transformation, for example, belonging to a universal or constancy of the area when dividing a flat square into parts.

Ships Theseus from the functional point of view are the same, since the observer does not care which ship of the two will perform the function of a vehicle. Since both ships have the same structure, they are also structurally indistinguishable. However, in terms of the composition of the ship, as soon as the first pine board is replaced with an oak one, the ship will no longer be the same, but different. Even if we replace the board with a pine one, but each board will have its own number, Theseus' ships will again be different, since their individual properties will be different.

The systems approach includes systemic cognition, therefore the concept of "cognition" must be included in systemic research. The greatest contributions to the modern theory of knowledge were made by such scientists as Locke, Hume, Kant, Fichte, Husserl and others. The study of the phenomenon of "cognition" is carried out in the following six directions: philosophical-methodological, formal-logical (logic, cybernetics, artificial intelligence), cognitive (neurophysiological, neuropsychological, cognitive psychology), historical-cultural, ontological and informational. The first four directions are described in, in particular, in the philosophical and methodological direction, two types of work are distinguished. Metaphorical, in which knowledge is revealed through metaphor and techniques that appeal to intuition (Florensky, Heidegger, Deleuze, Foucault and others). The second type of work involves more or less structured conceptual schemes of knowledge (Locke, Kant, Husserl, Russell, Maturan). In general, many authors call this direction epistemology. The second direction also claims this term, it widely uses mathematical methods. Despite the large number of formal theories offering models of cognition, there are still a number of important aspects of cognition for which no rigorous formal theories have yet been built.

In philosophy, two approaches to the process of cognition have been formed. The first one is classical, it implies an object-subject scheme (subject> object and subject> subject). The second includes not passive interaction, but an active subject and object, that is, the knower and the cognized mutually influence each other (Florensky, Heidegger, Gadmer). There are many areas of human activity where situations of direct or indirect opposition of an object to a cognizing subject arise (forensics, military operations, etc.). There are two interconnected mechanisms of cognition - explicit (conscious) and implicit (unconscious). An explicit mechanism is based on purposeful activity and the possibility of verbalizing this mechanism by means of language. Latent cognitive mechanisms, in turn, are divided into acquired and innate, while it is believed that perception (unconscious categorization) occurs at the level of latent cognitive mechanisms.

W. Neisser proposed a model of the perceptual cycle, which he considers as a universal principle of the interaction of mentality with information received from external environment... A feature of this model is two comparison procedures, the first of which is a comparison of sensory information with information in memory, and the second is a cognitive comparison on a set of concepts. With the help of comparison operations and cognitive comparison, orientation in real world and a system of concepts.

When comparing and choosing, the subject very often uses irrational mechanisms that are not subject to the mechanism of reasoning. Intuition, stereotypes, heuristics (congenital and acquired) lie in many actions, but not logical rules, so we can agree with U. Maturan that in cognition the mental model of the subject is more important than the informational model coming from the senses. In cognitology, the term "cognition" began to be used not only for the process of forming scientific knowledge, but also to denote the psychological process of perception, and then as a mechanism for making decisions, interpreting texts, etc.

In philosophy, two types of objects are investigated: sensually perceived by a person and objects determined theoretically, which are fundamentally not sensory perceptible. Real objects are perceived by people through innate and acquired mechanisms that allow them to distinguish objects. In addition to highlighting objects, it is important to represent objects in the language, as well as generalization of objects. A generic object is not a real object and cannot have real properties, so the properties of generic objects can be described using concepts or properties that represent a generic object that can represent a universe, for example, a class of objects. Generalized objects include a set of interrelated objects perceived by the subject as a whole and generalized on the basis of conventional mechanisms. For example, a knife is designed for cutting, however, the knife is also an element of the "tool" universal, the properties of which are determined by convention and may not have real-life incarnations. On the other hand, the knife can be classified as "cold steel". The categorical approach, as a universal way of describing the world, was proposed by Aristotle, Kant, Peirce and others. S.S. Magazov notes that this approach seems to be promising at the present time, especially for describing dynamically changing subject areas. In the field of artificial intelligence, this direction is called combinatorial ontology. From the above, the following conclusion can be drawn. Different researchers of the same element of the universe of the Universe can reflect it in different objects and environments, and also consider it a system. For one researcher, the system can be the object itself, for another - only one property of the object, in relation to which the object plays the role of environment.

The question arises whether the system is only a subjective concept, or is it an objective phenomenon. The subjective choice of a system for research does not deny the objective existence of the systems themselves. Collections of elements and their environments can be considered a system if they are in dynamic "ecological" equilibrium. Elements do not "destroy" the environment, and the environment does not "suppress" the elements that are in that environment. As a rule, the environment is qualitatively different elements from objects, that is, the object and its environment are elements of different universes, and when organizing the system, they form a combination of at least two elements from different universes. During the formation of the system, the element and its environment do not lose their belonging to their supermarkets, and create a new property that is absent from the element and the environment. If the interaction of an element and the environment has reached dynamic equilibrium, then we can assume that the system is established, if the system is only being created or is already being destroyed, then it is possible to use the concept of "system projection", which reflects various categorical projections of the concept of "system" in a temporal, geometric or elemental aspect as well as other aspects. This may explain so many definitions of the concept of "system". A system is a combination of at least two elements (system components) from different universes, in which the elements do not lose their belonging to their supermarkets, and leading to a dynamic "ecological" equilibrium interaction between them, which makes it possible to produce a property that is absent in each of the elements separately. In the simplest case, one of these elements is an object, and the other is an environment. If at least one property of an object is investigated, for example, a change in the values ​​of any indicator of an object, then the object in relation to this property will be the environment. If at least one interaction of two objects is investigated, then any of the objects can be considered as an environment. If at least one transformation of one object is investigated under the influence of the surrounding field (gravitational, electromagnetic or other), then the latter can be considered as the environment.

When they say that the periodic table is a system, then it is not meant a vulgar understanding of the picture or the name of this picture, but that it reflects, in particular, a set of chemical elements belonging to different supermarkets, which led and leads to the emergence of a variety of chemical compounds and their new properties. On the other hand, the data contained in the table, when interacting with a knowledgeable person, form an information system that produces practical actions for chemical analysis and synthesis of elements of the universal universe.

When we talk about a navigation system, we understand that the geometric grid on the map or the map itself is not the earth's surface, but only a system of two different universes: the earth's surface and the map, which is used to select a route and move to a given point the earth's surface.

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Systems are divided into classes according to various criteria, and depending on the problem being solved, you can choose different classification principles. Attempts have been made to classify systems by view of the displayed object(technical, biological, economic, etc. systems); mind scientific direction, used for their modeling (mathematical, physical, chemical, etc.); interaction with the environment(open and closed); magnitude and difficulties.

One of the most complete and interesting for the choice of methods for modeling classifications by difficulty levels proposed by K. Boulding. The levels highlighted in it are given in table. 1.2.

In the classification of K. Boulding, each subsequent class includes the previous one, is characterized by a greater manifestation of the properties of openness and stochasticity of behavior, more pronounced manifestations of the laws of hierarchy and historicity, although this is not always noted, as well as more complex "mechanisms" of functioning and development.

Evaluating classifications from the point of view of their use in choosing methods for modeling systems, it should be avenged that such recommendations (up to the choice of mathematical methods) are available in them only for classes of relatively low complexity (in K. Boulding's classification, for example, for the level of inanimate systems), for which models based on the fundamental principles of the theory can be applied automatic control, - program control, deviation control (feedback model) and a model that combines the principle of deviation control and compensation control(or predictive control) by including a compensation unit in the model that measures the interference and generates recommendations for correcting the control law. For subsequent classes of complex systems, it is stipulated that it is difficult to give such recommendations. It is interesting to note that the feature "exchange of information with the environment" was chosen as a classification feature, and then a feature was added - the presence of "consciousness" and "self-consciousness".

Table 1.2

In the first period of the development of decision-making theory and systems theory, it was widespread to distinguish classes of problems with sufficient certainty, problems with uncertainty and problems with large initial uncertainty, which allows you to give recommendations on the classification of modeling methods on the basis of "certainty". A. Newell and G. Simon proposed to divide problems and systems according to the principle of "structuring": well structured, poorly structured and unstructured. By analogy with this classification, V.V. Nalimov proposed to introduce the concepts well organized and poorly organized or diffuse systems. Later, in the first collective monograph on systems theory, these two classes were supplemented with the class self-organizing or developing systems.

Classification of systems according to the degree of organization

The division of systems according to the degree of organization is proposed as a continuation of the idea of ​​dividing systems into well-organized and poorly organized, or diffuse.

Representation of an object or decision-making process in the form well organized system possible in those cases when the researcher manages to determine all the elements of the system and their interrelationships with each other and with the goals of the system in the form deterministic(analytical, graphical) dependencies.

When an object is represented by this class of systems, the problem situation can be described in the form expressions linking the end with the means, which in different applications have different names - a performance criterion, an optimality criterion, an efficiency criterion or indicator, an objective function, etc.

Such a representation is used in cases where a formal mathematical model can be proposed and the legitimacy of its application is shown experimentally, i.e. experimentally proven adequacy model to a real object or process. Attempts to apply this class of systems to represent complex multicomponent objects or multicriteria problems that have to be solved in the development of technical complexes, improving the management of enterprises and organizations, etc., are practically unrealizable, since this requires unacceptably large amounts of time to form a model. In addition, as a rule, even if it is possible to obtain a model, it is almost impossible to prove its adequacy.

When representing an object in the form poorly organized, or diffuse, system the task is not to define all the components and their relationship with the goals of the system. The system is characterized by a certain set of macroparameters and regularities, which are revealed on the basis of a study, determined with the help of some rules, a fairly representative sampling components representing the investigated object or process.

Based on this, selective, research gains characteristics or patterns(statistical, economic, etc.) and extend these patterns to the behavior of the system as a whole with some probability(statistical or in the broadest sense of the use of the term).

Displaying objects in the form of diffuse systems is widely used in determining the throughput of various systems, in determining the number of staff in service (for example, repair) shops of an enterprise, in service institutions (methods of queuing theory are used to solve such problems), to assess the reliability of complex technical complexes, etc.

In case of application statistical patterns the adequacy of the models is determined by the representativeness of the sample. For economic regularities, ways of proving the adequacy have not been investigated.

Class self-organizing, or developing, systems characterized by a number of features, features that bring them closer to real developing objects: the ability adapt to changing environmental conditions and interference, fundamental disequilibrium, ability resist entropic(destroying the system) trends and exhibit non-entropic tendencies, ability develop options for behavior and change your structure, ability and commitment to goal-setting.

In order to realize these properties in developing systems, it is necessary to take into account that they are inevitably accompanied by: ambiguity in the use of concepts, nonstationarity(variability, instability) parameters and stochasticity behavior, uniqueness and unpredictable behavior systems in specific conditions

The listed features have various manifestations, which can sometimes be distinguished as independent features. They, as a rule, are due to the presence of active elements in the system and are of a dual nature: they are new properties useful for the existence of the system, its adaptability to changing environmental conditions, but at the same time cause uncertainty and make it difficult to control the system. Some of the features considered are characteristic of diffuse systems (stochastic behavior, instability of individual parameters), but most of the features are specific features that significantly distinguish this class of systems from others and complicate their modeling. In the study of these features, an important difference was revealed between developing systems with active elements from closed ones - fundamental limitation of their formalized description.

This feature leads to the need for a combination of formal methods and methods of qualitative analysis. Therefore, the main constructive idea of ​​modeling when displaying an object as a class of self-organizing systems can be formulated as follows.

A sign system is being developed, with the help of which the currently known components and connections are fixed, and then, by transforming the resulting display using the selected or adopted approaches and methods (structuring or decomposition; compositions, search proximity measures on the state space, etc.), receive new, unknown to rapeseed components, relationships, dependencies, which can either serve as a basis for making decisions, or suggest the next steps on the way of developing a model.

The mapping of systems by this class allows one to study the least studied objects and processes with great uncertainty at the initial stage of the problem statement. Examples of such tasks are tasks arising in the design of complex technical complexes, in the study and development of management systems for organizations.

Most of the models and methods of system analysis are based on the representation of objects in the form of self-organizing systems, although this is not always specially stipulated.

When such models are formed, the usual understanding of models, which is characteristic of mathematical modeling and applied mathematics, changes. The idea of ​​the proof of the adequacy of such models is also changing. The adequacy of the model is proved, as it were, sequentially (as it is formed) by assessing the correctness of reflection in each subsequent model of the components and connections necessary to achieve the set goals.

The implementation of this idea becomes a kind of "mechanism" for the development of the system, "growing" a model for decision-making. The practical implementation of such a "mechanism" is associated with the need to develop a language for modeling the decision-making process. Such a language (sign system) can be based on one of the methods of modeling systems (for example, set-theoretic representations, mathematical logic, mathematical linguistics, dynamic simulation, information approach, etc.), but as the model develops, the methods can change.

Thus, it is possible to accumulate information about an object, while fixing all new components and connections (rules of interaction between components), and, applying them, to obtain displays of the sequential states of a developing system, gradually creating an increasingly adequate model of a real, studied or created object. At the same time, information can come from specialists in various fields of knowledge and accumulate over time as it arises (in the process of cognizing an object).

When modeling the most complex processes (for example, goal-setting processes, improving organizational structures, etc.), the "mechanism" of development (self-organization), "growing" a model for solving a problem can be implemented in the form of an appropriate methodology for system analysis (examples of which are considered in the textbook | 1 | and reference books, | 18 |). On the idea of ​​modeling when displaying an object by a class of self-organizing systems, the proposed in Ch. 6 method of gradual formalization of the decision-making model.

The considered class of systems can be divided into subclasses by highlighting adaptive or self-adapting systems, self-learning systems, self-healing, self-reproducing etc. classes in which the features discussed above and not yet studied (for example, for self-reproducing systems) are implemented to varying degrees.

When an object is represented by a class of self-organizing systems, the tasks of defining goals and choosing means are, as a rule, separated. In this case, the tasks of determining goals, choosing means, in turn, can be described in the form of self-organizing systems, i.e. the structure of the main directions, the plan, the structure of the functional part of the ACS should develop in the same way (and even here it is necessary to more often include the "mechanism" of development), as the structure of the supporting part of the ACS, the organizational structure of the enterprise, etc.

Most of the methods, models, and examples presented in the appendices presented in the following chapters are based on the representation of objects as self-organizing systems, although this will not always be specially stipulated.

In the classification under consideration, the terms that existed by that time were used, but they are combined into a single classification, in which the selected classes are considered as approaches to displaying an object, process or problem situation and their characteristics are proposed, which makes it possible to choose a class of systems for displaying an object depending on the stage of its cognition. and the possibility of obtaining information about it.

Problematic situations with a large initial uncertainty are more consistent with the representation of an object by the third class of systems.

At the same time, when modeling complex human-machine complexes, when creating management systems for enterprises and organizations, they often seek to display them using the theory of automatic regulation and control, developed for closed, technical systems and significantly distorting the understanding of systems with active elements, which can be harmful , to make the investigated object an inanimate "mechanism" incapable of adapting to the environment and developing options for its development. This situation began, in particular, to be observed in our country in the 1900s and 1970s, when too strict directives began to restrain the development of industry.

The considered features are contradictory. In most cases, they are both positive and negative, desirable and undesirable for the system being created. It is not immediately possible to understand and explain them, select and create the required degree of their manifestation. The study of the reasons for the manifestation of such features of complex objects with active elements is carried out by philosophers, psychologists, specialists in systems theory, who propose and investigate to explain these features. patterns of systems. Taking these patterns into account helps to improve the adequacy of the developed models.

At the same time, one should bear in mind an important difference between developing systems with active elements and closed ones: trying to understand the fundamental features of modeling such systems, already the first researchers noted that, starting from a certain level of complexity, it is easier to manufacture and put into operation, transform and change than to display formal model.

With the accumulation of experience in the study and transformation of such systems, this observation was confirmed, and their main feature was realized - fundamental limitation of the formalized description of developing, self-organizing systems.

This feature, i.e. the need to combine formal methods and methods of qualitative analysis, and is the basis for most models and methods of system analysis. When such models are formed, the usual understanding of models, which is characteristic of mathematical modeling and applied mathematics, changes. The idea of ​​the proof of the adequacy of such models is also changing.

The considered classes of systems can be associated with the methods and models considered in the subsequent chapters. Thus, having determined the class of the system, it is possible to give recommendations on the choice of a method that will allow it to be more adequately displayed, and the idea of ​​"growing" a model allows one to prove the adequacy of formalized models sequentially, by assessing the correctness of reflection in each subsequent model of the components and connections necessary to achieve the set goals.

When choosing a modeling method at the outset, it is helpful to choose a modeling approach.

The Theory of Constraints on Systems (TOC) has been successfully working and developing for over thirty years. Thousands of companies around the world have adopted it as the main management approach to managing their business as a whole, or to managing a specific functional unit within an organization (for example, manufacturing, logistics, supply chain or projects).

Introduction

Organizations are created to achieve a goal. They are managed by managers. The role of management is to continually improve the performance of the organization and increase the value that it brings. Managers have always existed, but management as a subject of study is a relatively new direction. Many universities began teaching management in the 1960s as part of a technical or economic education, later gradually moving to a separate full-time MBA program.

The advent of computer technology in organizations has had a significant impact on the development of management as a profession. Information Systems had to be based on management procedures, and this required the development of management approaches.

Manufacturing companies gained access to new approaches such as MRP (Manufacturing Resource Planning) in the early 1970s, TQM - Total Quality Management, TOC (Theory of Constraints) - Theory of Constraints in the mid-1980s.

The theory of constraints is a systematic approach based on a rigid causal logic and combining both logical tools and logistics solutions. Thousands of organizations around the world have used CBT to quickly and efficiently improve their operations. Materials and reports provided by such companies can be found on numerous sites. For example, a Google search for Theory of Constraints gives 3,460,000 links. Presentations on the latest achievements and developments can be obtained on the website of the international certification organization TOCICO (TOC International Certification Organization) and on the special website of the Goldratt Marketing Group - www.TOC.tv. TOC is taught in many universities, business schools and MBA programs around the world.

About The Theory of Constraints - TOC

The creator of CBT is Dr. Eli Goldratt, who has been developing the theory of constraints since 1975 with a group of close colleagues and practitioners. At the moment, CBT covers numerous aspects of the management of organizations and systematically improves their activities. The essence of the theory is reflected in its name - "limitation".

Constraints are factors or elements that determine the limits of a system's performance.

Constraint theory states that each system has a number of constraints, and these are the key to its control.

Figure 1: Constraint and its impact on system performance.

Constraint is more than what blocks the system from achieving the best level of performance. A limitation is something that, if properly managed, will "raise" the entire system to a new level. The drive for improvement is based on a firm belief that the system can do more. It is the gap between current and desired performance levels that gives managers the energy and perseverance to drive improvement.

Constraint theory provides a simple and practical approach to managing and improving a system - through its constraints. There are several types of constraints: capacity constraint, lead time constraint, and market constraint (the number of customer orders).

Power limitation is a resource that is not able to provide at the required time the power that the system requires from it.

Market restriction - the number of orders received by the firm is insufficient to support the required system growth.

Time constraints - the response time of the system to market needs is too long, which jeopardizes the system's ability to fulfill its obligations to customers, as well as expand its business.

The rules for managing the system through its limitations are simple and practical. These are five focusing (guiding) steps:

Step 1. Find the limitation (s) of the system.

Step 2. Decide how to make the most of the system constraint (s) (“squeeze out” everything possible from it).

Step 3. Subordinate all other elements of the system (not restrictions) to the adopted decision.

The first three steps are known as tidying up the house. They allow the manager to maintain control over the system and improve its reliability and predictability. The application of the first three steps already leads to a significant improvement in performance, since they eliminate a large number of existing losses in the operation of the system. Typically, as a result of these three steps, the system begins to produce significantly more without any additional cost or investment. Once the system is stable, it is ready to make a focused investment in areas that will bring the maximum return, that is, for the next step:

Step 4. Extend the system constraint. This means relieving the stress caused by the limitation by adding capacity (in the case of capacity limitation), obtaining additional customer orders (in the case of market limitation), and reducing lead times for orders and projects (if the lead time is limited).

Step 5. If in the previous step the limitation was removed (ceased to be a limitation), return to step 1. Warning: do not allow inertia to become the main blocking factor of the system's activity.

Moving from one constraint to another threatens the stability of the organization. Step 3, requiring the subordination of all other elements, shapes the behavior of the entire system, which will be aimed at supporting plans and decisions to maximize the use of the constraint. It is in step 3 that the rules, procedures and mechanisms for day-to-day management are established. If the restriction is changed, all of these rules, procedures and mechanisms will be affected and will require changes. Therefore, it is recommended to choose a strategic constraint and organize the operation of the entire system accordingly. This will maintain a constant focus of attention of management and the entire organization on the same constraint and ensure the continuous growth of the company towards achieving its goal.

Theory of Constraints provides a set of solutions for production, distribution systems, project management, to manage functional units within the organization and to develop new local or strategic solutions.

This methodology provides the tools to answer four key questions about continuous improvement:

• What to change? - Determine the root (key) problem.
• What to change? - Develop simple, practical solutions.
• How to ensure change? - Enlist the cooperation and support of the people needed to implement the solution.
• What creates a continuous improvement process? - Implement a mechanism to identify areas for improvement.

Results of applying the Theory of Constraints - examples of implementations

A distinguishing characteristic of the companies that have implemented TOC is the way they survived the economic crisis of 2008-2009. While their industries experienced severe declines in sales and profits, many of Theory of Constraints companies not only maintained pre-crisis performance, but were also able to generate significant growth. In this article, I want to give a few examples of such companies.

Experience of implementing the Theory of Constraints in Russia

LPK "Continental Management", timber industry holding company

Continental Management is a vertically integrated holding, one of the largest timber companies in Russia. The main activity of the company is the management of the assets of the holding companies engaged in complex wood processing. The enterprises of the holding produce more than 200 types of products, from cellulose, cardboard, packaging and newsprint to wood chemical products. The holding's turnover in 2009 amounted to 6 billion rubles. The holding, including enterprises in the regions of Russia, employs about 7,000 people.

The company began implementing Theory of Constraints in late 2008 with a 20-person training program led by Eli Schragenheim, one of the leading TOC experts and Director of Goldratt Schools for Europe. The internal teams then worked with Inherent Simplicity to do the implementation.

The results of the implementation of the Theory of Constraints in enterprises:

• Availability of products in stock - increased to 95%
• Time production cycle reduced to 75%
• The period for which the results were achieved is 6 months
• Implementation continues in a number of other companies of the holding

By implementing the Supply Chain Theory of Constraints solution in a short time, the company solved the main management dilemma in the make-to-stock environment: how much to produce?

Companies keep stocks of finished goods because their customers don't want to wait for their order to be completed. Consequently, the company is forced to start production in the absence of firm orders and rely on the forecast. Since the forecast is never accurate, this leads, on the one hand, to a shortage of a number of items in the warehouse, which leads to lost sales, and on the other hand, to an excess of other items, which leads to obsolescence and write-off of products and low turnover of goods.

According to the TOC solution, the factory warehouse is the part of the system where most of the inventory should be stored. He supplies the next downstream warehouses and customers with the required products through frequent deliveries based on daily consumption information. The factory warehouse acts as the main "regulator" for the entire replenishment system, from production. The solution provides significantly more high level availability of goods at a significantly lower level of inventory compared to generally accepted methods of inventory management. Sales grow as the likelihood increases that a customer will find what they need in the warehouse when they need it. The turnover of goods increases as the level of stock in the system is constantly and continuously adjusted to the actual market demand.

Experience of implementing the Theory of Constraints in India

Fleetguard Filters Pvt Ltd, a supplier to the automotive industry.
Report submitted by Niranjan Kirloskar.

This company started using TOC in 2006. They quickly improved the performance of their production units, achieved a high level of order fulfillment on time and ensured a high level of availability of finished products in the factory warehouse, and then, ensured a high level of product availability in regional warehouses, while reducing the overall level of stocks. The market responded with a stable growth in demand for the company's products. As a result, the company received a significant increase in profits.

At the international conference TOCICO in Tokyo in November 2009, the company presented a report on the results of its activities.

Figure 2: Fleetguard Filters Performance - Sales and Bottom Line

It should be borne in mind that Fleetguard Filters has achieved such results in the face of a slump in production in the automotive industry. Despite the fact that in 2008 the industry saw a decline in production by 80%, the company had a 10% profit without a decrease in sales. The recession continued in 2009, but the company increased its sales by 18%, increasing its net profit by 50%. According to their estimates, significant growth in sales is expected, and even greater growth in profits.

How was this growth achieved?

• The company made the most of the existing facilities and ensured 100% availability of finished products. Compared to 2006, the company was able to squeeze out almost twice as much from the existing capacities.
• A record time has been achieved to develop and bring new products to market, just one third of the industry standard.
• The company provided distributors and retailers with a significant increase in product turnover due to its 100% availability.
• High reliability of supplies to OEM manufacturers and the export market was ensured.

This is an example of a holistic Theory of Constraints solution that includes manufacturing, distribution (supply chain), new product development, marketing, sales and human resources management.

Achieved results:

• The level of availability of products in the factory warehouse - 99% with a 6-8 day stock volume,
• The level of product availability in the regional warehouse is 99% with a 12-day stock volume,
• Distributors have close to 100% availability of products,
• Work in progress - 2? 3 days
• Raw material availability over 98%

Implementation by Kiran Kothekar, Vector Consulting Group

Experience of implementing the Theory of Constraints in Japan

Juntos, a public sector bridge design and construction company

Due to constant natural disasters, the consequences of which must be eliminated, the Ministry of State Lands, Infrastructure, Tourism and Transport of Japan annually initiates thousands of projects. In recent years, government funding has dropped to about half of what it was at its peak. Before many construction companies the task was to reduce costs and project execution time. Many companies have realized that they need The best way project management.

In 2007, Juntos management decided to use The Theory of Constraints method for project management.

Achieved results:

• Completion on time (completion of projects as originally planned) increased from 30% to 86%
• Project lead times have been reduced by more than 20%
• Material and equipment costs decreased by more than 20%
• Improved the process of exchanging information with customers.

Critical Chain projects were carried out by Keita Asaine and Ryoma Shiratsuchi.

Experience of implementing the Theory of Constraints in the UK

Positive Solutions - financial consulting

Positive Solutions provides financial planning services in the UK. The company offers assistance on investment, loans, pensions, insurance and others and works through independent financial advisors. The company is headquartered in Newcastle, UK. Since 2002 the company has been a subsidiary of AEGON UK.

Company founder David Harisson built it from scratch. As sales growth remained below expected, David used TOC logic tools to analyze the UK independent financial advisor market and identified the main issues:

• The speed of attracting independent consultants was insufficient and did not allow achieving the planned level of growth
• The sales cycle time was too long to reach sales targets
• The company's proposals were not differentiated from those of competitors
• Resources were running at full capacity, leading to lost sales.

To address the issues identified in 2001, the company applied Theory of Constraints to manage the recruitment of new independent consultants and build a more efficient sales process.

Achieved results:

• Within one month, the number of consultants involved in cooperation doubled, and over the next two months - tripled
• Turnover increased 40% during the year to £ 25.6 million
• Gross profit up 54% to £ 6.2 million
• Positive Solutions was ranked second in the national Vantis Top 100, topping the list of financial services companies.

Implementation was led by Oded Cowen (International Director of Goldratt Schools) with Andy Watt (www.goldratt.co.uk). This example is described in the appendix to the anniversary edition of the book by E.M. Goldratt's Target, dedicated to the 20th anniversary of the book's first edition.

Other examples of implementation of the Theory of Constraints

There are many publications in which the companies themselves or independent experts describe the results achieved through the implementation of TOC. The Goldratt Marketing Group website contains over 90 such links. More than 400 scientific research publications have been published as The World of Theory of Constraints by Victoria J Mabin and Steven J. Balderstone.

Below are some notable companies and institutions that have publicly announced the use of The Theory of Constraints:

ABB Switzerland

Boeing Aviation and Space

United States Marine Corps Vehicle Maintenance Base

Elwood City Forge USA

Israeli Aircraft Industry

Amdocs Israel

Dr Reddy's pharmaceutical company India

Tata Steel India

You can learn more about their experience by searching the Internet and listing the company name next to “Theory of Constraints” in your request.

“Boulding's approach to the formulation of the basic concepts of general systems theory is characterized by the fact that, firstly, it begins by isolating phenomena that are quite general in nature and constitute the subject of research in many scientific disciplines, and, secondly, groups them depending on the degree of complexity , i.e. goes the way of "taxocology" systems.

So, he considers the "population" as a phenomenon common to the subject area of ​​various scientific disciplines, regardless of whether it consists of animals, social classes, goods or molecules. Factors of general importance may also include:

a) individuals - electron, atom, molecule, cell, plant, animal, person, family, tribe, state, church, company, etc. All of them interact with the environment, which includes other "individuals", the consequence of which is a certain behavior, ie. actions taken, changes, etc.;

b) the behavior of each "individual", which is determined by his own structure. It can be explained as a tendency to maintain or restore the status quo as a preferred state, or as another tendency;

c) growth, which is such an important and specific aspect of behavior that it should be singled out in a special category;

d) information and communication, by virtue of their special meaning, isolated as a separate category from the entire complex of relationships.

Having established the elements and categories of each system, Boulding further highlights eight hierarchical levels of systems.

1. Static systems. Typical systems of this class can be atoms in a molecule, maps of the Earth or the solar system. Such systems can, according to Boulding, be identified in almost all areas of reality, and they should be considered as the factual basis (or organizational chart) of all systematic (organizational) knowledge.

2. Simple dynamical systems. These are systems of the level of watch movements, where the movement is deterministic. They can also include quite complex machines, like a steam engine or a dynamo machine, as well as a significant part of theoretical knowledge in the field of physics, chemistry and economics.

3. Simple cybernetic systems (an example of which is a thermostat). These include all systems where the transfer, communication and integration of information take place, processes that allow the system to self-regulate and, thus, maintain a given state.

4. Open, or self-adjusting systems. This is the level at which the separation of organic life from inanimate matter takes place. It can also be called a "cell". TO open systems also includes fire and rivers.

5. Plant life. Here a certain division of labor arises between the cells that form the "cellular societies" of leaves, grains, etc.

6. The animal kingdom. Unlike plants, in which the sense organs are very poorly developed, special information receptors (eyes, ears, etc.) are formed in animals, the nervous system develops, which allows the brain to organize information, regulating the behavior of the animal.

7. Man as a system with the ability of self-knowledge. He not only knows something, but he knows that he knows. Highly developed memory, the ability to speak, perceive and interpret symbols, knowledge of past experiences, etc. - all this distinguishes a person from his humble brethren.

8. Social organization. In this case, the object of research is not the individual, but his roles. A social organization is defined as a series or group of roles linked into a system through communication channels.

Such are the basic premises of general systems theory in Boulding's interpretation, which testify to a fruitful desire to overcome limited empiricism, the inconsistency of which has become evident today in all areas of knowledge. "

Gvishiani D.M. , Selected Works in philosophy, sociology and systems analysis, M., "Canon +", 2007, p. 267-269.