Analysis of financial results is carried out according to. Methodology for analyzing the financial results of the enterprise. Profit from sales is calculated using the formula

The term “quality of profit” is quite common in the financial analysis literature. At the same time, there is no clear, unambiguous definition of this concept. As L.A. Bernstein, "there is little general agreement on the definitions or assumptions underlying this concept."

In most cases, the quality of profit is understood as the content of profit, the nature of its formation under the influence of various factors. Sometimes profit quality boils down to a reliability issue accounting statements, which narrows the analysis down. It seems that the quality of profit is a characteristic of the factors of formation of indicators of financial results, with and without quantitative measurement, due to management decisions in the field of marketing, production and financial management and affecting operational, investment and financial activities (see Fig. 4.6).

Rice. 4.7. Factors affecting net income

The practical value of the analysis of the quality of profit lies in the correct assessment of trends in the formation of profit as an indicator of efficiency, a source of financing the needs of expanded reproduction and payment of income to owners, which at the same time makes it possible to link the level of financial results with the quality of management. Assessment of the quality of profit makes it possible for users of financial statements to conduct comparative analysis activities of different enterprises, taking into account the factors of profit formation, financial managers - to take reasonable management decisions, use the results of the analysis of the quality of profit in forecasting financial results.

The object of analysis is all stages of the formation of financial results, but different groups of users pursue different interests. Capital providers prefer earnings before interest and taxes and assess this as a source sufficient to cover finance costs. From the point of view of the state, this is profit before taxation as the basis for the formation of taxable profit and a source of payment of income tax.

From the point of view of owners, the most important indicator is net profit as an object of distribution. The net (retained) profit, revealed according to the accounting data, increases for the reporting year, and the loss decreases the capital of the organization. In the next (for the reporting) year, the net profit is allocated to the reinvested part and the dividend. Determination of the optimal proportions of distribution of net profit is the content of the dividend policy, which is an important tool of financial management not only in joint stock companies, but in companies of a different organizational and legal form, where the authorized capital is divided into shares, and the income to the owner is paid on the invested capital, depending on his share in the capital. In certain cases, the net profit is also directed to the formation of capital reserves.

The direction of net profit for the payment of dividends reduces the capital of the organization and is reflected by the entry: Debit of account 84 "Retained earnings (uncovered loss)" Credit of account 75 "Settlements with founders" (account 70 "Settlements with personnel for wages"), which at the same time shows the occurrence of debt before shareholders (participants, founders) on the payment of income. Debt repayment in most cases is made in cash, the bulk of which is provided by the sale of products (works, services), which is difficult with a decrease in sales, the presence of significant overdue accounts receivable, outstripping the growth rate of current costs. A guaranteed regular payment of dividends is possible with such a quality of profit, which is provided mainly by an increase in profit from sales, and, consequently, by production factors. In this case, the profit is not random, but a predictable value.

The reinvested (or retained) profit becomes almost constant in the “Capital and reserves” section of the balance sheet. After writing off part of the net profit for the payment of dividends and the formation of reserve capital, as a rule, debit entries on account 84 "Retained earnings (uncovered loss)" are not made during the reporting period. The reinvested part of the profit is considered as a source of financing the costs associated with scientific, technical and production development, it allows you to economically substantiate the amount of necessary capital investments, financed by profit, and the increase in the need for working capital.

From the standpoint financial sustainability a significant share of profit in the total amount of sources of financing of economic activities is preferable. Control and management of the use of retained earnings are carried out during financial planning and conducting analytical accounting of the use of profit on the corresponding analytical sub-accounts, which does not change the amount of retained earnings in synthetic accounting, since financing of costs is provided at the expense of incoming Money... Profit as an element of capital only changes its form. This circumstance requires attention to the factors of net profit formation. In other words, it is necessary to answer the questions: to what extent the formation of profit reflects the efficiency of economic activity, and to what extent is it the result of accounting policies or manipulation of accounting methods, are other incomes and expenses involved in the formation of net profit significant?

Assessment of the quality of net profit can be carried out taking into account the grouping of factors influencing its formation in the following areas:

· Analysis of accounting policies and assessment of the role of accounting methods in the formation of net profit;

· Analysis of the dynamics of sales and market share of the company;

· Analysis and assessment of the role of production factors in the formation of profit from sales, stability of profit from sales as the main element of the total amount of profit;

· Analysis and assessment of the composition and structure of other income, the nature of their formation;

· Analysis and assessment of tax accounting policies and the impact of tax payments on net profit;

Analysis of non-financial indicators reflecting the impact on financial results of environmental factors, the effectiveness of the organization's management, the level of qualifications of personnel, etc. factors.

Analysis of accounting policies can be carried out by external users according to the data of the annual report, which discloses its content based on the requirements of accounting regulations.

In accordance with PBU 1/2008 "Accounting policy of the organization", the content of the accounting policy is disclosed by organizations that publish their financial statements in whole or in part in accordance with the legislation Russian Federation, constituent documents or on their own initiative.

When forming the accounting policy, the organization independently chooses one of several methods allowed by law and regulations accounting. If, on a specific issue, the methods of accounting are not established, then the chief accountant of the organization, when forming the accounting policy, develops a method of keeping records in accordance with accounting standards, as well as international financial reporting standards.

This circumstance, on the one hand, makes accounting policy a management tool and creates the basis for the multivariance of the magnitude of financial results. On the other hand, the role of subjective factors in shaping future financial results increases, such as the level of professional judgment of the chief accountant, his experience and qualifications, understanding of the relationship between accounting policies and the value of many financial indicators.

Since financial results are the final indicators determined in the accounting accounts at the end of the reporting period, their value is influenced by many factors determined by the accounting policy, for example, related to the valuation of assets, methods of depreciation of fixed assets, the valuation of the value of inventories written off for production, the nature of recognition income and expenses, etc.

So, for example, in accordance with the accounting policy of OJSC NLMK, expenses on the sale of products (works, services) and general business expenses are recognized in full in the reporting period as expenses for ordinary activities based on the requirements of RAS 10/99 "Organization expenses" ; the cost of products (works, services) sold at domestic market and export, is defined as production - a direct account based on the types of products and their actual cost, excluding management costs.

This policy in the field of recognition of management and selling expenses allows you to calculate the indicator of gross profit and gives a more reasonable amount of profit, profitability and other financial ratios.

The most significant part of pre-tax profit is profit from sales, therefore, attention is primarily paid to the analysis of its formation. For this, financial ratios are calculated - the gross profit ratio and profitability of sales (based on profit from sales), the factors that influenced the change in profit from sales are studied.

The influence of factors on profit and profitability of sales can be represented in the form of a model, sequentially transforming the algorithm for calculating profit from sales:

PP - profit from sale;

В - sales proceeds;

С - cost price products sold;

КР - business expenses;

SD - administrative expenses;

ВП / В - gross profit ratio;

КР / В - the share of selling expenses in the proceeds;

УР / В - the share of administrative expenses in the revenue.

Using the data in Tables 4.4 and 4.5, we will show what factors have changed the profit and profitability of sales in 2009 compared to 2008.

Profit from sale (thousand rubles):

The change in profit from the sale was negatively affected by all the factors included in the model - a decrease in revenue from 202,102,731 thousand rubles to 128574663 thousand rubles, a decrease in the gross profit ratio from 43% to 26.6%, an increase in the share of selling expenses from 5.4% to 9, 5%, increasing the share of administrative expenses from 1.8% to 3.6%.

Return on sales (in fractions of a unit):

Return on sales, calculated on the basis of profit from sales, decreased from 35.4% to 13.5% due to a decrease in the gross profit ratio from 43% to 26.6%, an increase in the share of selling expenses from 5.4% to 9.5%, increasing the share of administrative expenses from 1.8% to 3.6%.

Thus, the number of factors that directly affect the profit from sales include sales proceeds, cost of goods sold, administrative and selling expenses. In turn, the sales proceeds are influenced by the structure of sales proceeds, the level of prices for products, the physical volume of sales, the range of products, the presence of low profitable and / or unprofitable activities. An analysis of these factors helps to understand how stable the increase or decrease in sales profit is.

The cost of the sold products depends on the technical equipment of the enterprise and technology, the degree of wear and tear of fixed assets and their technical condition, consumption rates and the state of rationing of the main types of production resources, control of the use of consumed raw materials, materials, semi-finished products, the qualification level of production personnel, labor productivity, organization of service production process and the volume of general production costs, the efficiency of the functioning of the main and auxiliary production.

The range of products, prices for products sold and consumed resources by types of products, the cost of production services have a direct impact on the weighted average gross profit ratio:

Weighted average gross profit ratio;

Revenue from products of the i-th type of products, works, services;

Production cost products of the i-th type of products, works, services;

The share of the i-th products, works, services.

The analysis of market share and sales dynamics is strategically important for large companies with a leading position in the market. Since NLMK is part of the NLMK Group, the following characteristics and indicators of the group should be taken into account.

The NLMK Group is one of the world's leading steel producers, one of the largest metallurgical companies in Russia, and the main production site for the production of steel and flat products is NLMK. In 2009, about 73% of the group's metal products were sold to 75 countries around the world.

Table 4.10

Revenue structure by geographic segments of NLMK Group in 2009

Consequently, the demand for products and the stability of sales dynamics largely depend on the state of the world economy and the level of prices for metal products.

Due to the financial crisis, the aggregate global demand for metallurgical products decreased by 20% in the first quarter of 2009 compared to 2008. The level of finished steel production in Russia in November 2008, the most critical month, decreased by 47% in relation to the monthly average indicators of the pre-crisis period (January - August 2008). At the end of 2009, metallurgical enterprises almost reached the pre-crisis level of production, and the backlog was already 7%.

Unfavorable trends in the development of the crisis usually affect all participants in the production chain "supplier - buyer", the deterioration of the financial condition of suppliers of raw materials and semi-finished products leads to disruptions in supplies, reduced production and sales of their counterparties. Vertically integrated holdings that control the entire technological cycle: from ore mining to production final product with high added value (with an EBITDA margin of 20-30% and above) are the most resistant to the crisis. High profitability allows financing of current activities from its own funds.

NLMK is a vertically integrated group that controls the entire production and sales process - from the extraction of raw materials to delivery finished products to the consumer. Almost all of the group's traffic (97%) is provided by its own transport company. At the expense of the enterprises belonging to the group, the production needs are 100% provided with iron ore concentrate and coke, 80% with scrap metal, 45% with electricity (the main site in Lipetsk).

This allows maintaining the group's market share, which is:

· 18% - in the world slab market;

· 23% - in the Russian cold-rolled steel market;

· 28% - in the Russian market for rolled products with polymer coatings.

Optimal group structure, wide product range, flexible sales policy helps to minimize the impact of negative trends in the sales markets, but a sharp decline in steel prices significantly reduced sales revenue (in USD - by 48%). EBITDA margin decreased in comparison with 2008 by 15 percentage points and amounted to 24% in 2009. Nevertheless, according to this indicator, NLMK Group is one of the world leaders in the iron and steel industry.

In 2009, a significant decrease in proceeds from the sale of products in the income statement compared to 2008 at NLMK was caused precisely by environmental factors - a decrease in demand and, mainly, a drop in prices for metallurgical products. Nevertheless, the enterprise is characterized by high business activity - 8.5 million tons of steel are produced in Lipetsk out of 8.9 million tons of steel produced by the group's enterprises.

The most important factor in the growth of profits is the reduction of the cost of goods sold, however, the possibilities of external users in the field of detailed analysis of costs for ordinary activities are very limited. Using indicators of the dynamics and structure of expenses, certain conclusions can be drawn.

According to NLMK's profit and loss statements, it can be seen that with a decrease in the absolute amount of production costs, its share in revenue increased from 57% in 2008 (which is a fairly low figure) to 73.4% in 2009. explain the decline variable costs for the entire volume of production and the preservation of the main part of production fixed costs that cannot be reduced, such as:

Depreciation of fixed assets;

Equipment repair and maintenance costs;

Expenses for intra-plant movement of goods;

Leasing payments;

Salaries of the management personnel of the shops;

Heating and lighting, etc.

The increase in the share of production costs with a decrease in revenue in 2009 by more than a third compared to 2008 (mainly due to the price factor) indicates a slight decrease in NLMK's safety margin.

Additional information on the composition and structure of production costs by elements can be obtained by analyzing the data in the appendix to the profit and loss statement (see table. 4.11).

NLMK's production activities are characterized by a fairly high material and energy consumption - the share of material costs is about 80%, the most significant element of material costs is the cost of raw materials and materials. In 2009, the share of material costs decreased by 6.9 percentage points, including the share of costs for raw materials and supplies - by 14 percentage points, but the share of costs for fuel and energy increased. What factors influenced the change in the size and structure of the elements of production costs?

When analyzing trends in the value and structure of costs, it is necessary to use explanations to the annual income statement, which disclose non-financial information on measures aimed at curbing negative trends, eliminating the consequences of crisis phenomena, and indicators reflecting the production aspects of activities and the implementation of the company's strategy.

One of the strategic directions of the NLMK Group's development is the use of the main competitive advantage, which consists in low-cost steel production, in order to increase volumes

Table 4.11

Expenses for ordinary activities (by cost element)

	In thousand rubles	2009, an increase to 2008	Cost structure and its change
Cost elements					abs. off
Material costs, total			-26,3%	84,3%	77,4%	-6,9%
including
raw materials and supplies			-37,2%	64,3%	50,3%	-14,0%
fuel, energy			18,4%	12,9%	19,1%	6,1%
works and services of a production nature performed by third parties			-8,6%	7,0%	8,0%	1,0%
Labor costs			-4,7%	7,8%	9,2%	1,5%
Social contributions			-6,5%	1,7%	2,0%	0,3%
Depreciation			30,0%	2,5%	4,0%	1,5%
Other costs			58,2%	3,7%	7,4%	3,6%
Total cost items			-19,7%	100,0%	100,0%	0,0%

production of finished products at our own rolling facilities all over the world.

Measures aimed at optimizing costs for the NLMK Group as a whole were as follows:

firstly, against the background of a decrease in demand for steel and, consequently, raw materials, negotiations were held to reduce prices for raw materials;

secondly, during the crisis period, NLMK Group tried to limit the use of third-party raw materials. Existing technologies made it possible to reduce the consumption of iron ore pellets without losing product quality by increasing the consumption of sinter produced from concentrate of Stoilensky GOK. This made it possible to minimize purchases of third-party iron ore raw materials. In the converter production, the consumption of scrap metal was reduced by using its own pig iron, which also limited the cost of scrap procurement. Thus, internal reserves were found and used, the maximum effect was obtained from vertical integration with the raw materials assets of NLMK Group, and the utilization of their capacities was increased;

thirdly, work was accelerated to increase labor productivity through optimization functional responsibilities, the structure of the NLMK Group, reduction of the number of non-production and management personnel and other measures.

All these measures have reduced production costs by 37%. As a result, the cost of producing a ton of steel at the Lipetsk site in 2009 amounted to 220 USD / t, i.e. 37% below the 2008 level, which is a competitive indicator in the world.

Given the nature of production, it is important to evaluate the work to reduce energy intensity. The key non-financial indicator is energy consumption per ton of steel (converter production) is 6.3 Gcal / t, which is 3% below the 2005 level. The decrease in specific energy intensity in 2009 was due to the decommissioning of 4 coke oven batteries, a change in the structure of metal production, the commissioning of new energy-efficient air separation units, and the implementation of other measures that made it possible to reduce the consumption of electricity and fuel. Subsequently, the implementation of the planned activities within the framework of the technical re-equipment program at the Lipetsk site will increase the energy efficiency of steel production.

Non-financial indicators as part of key performance indicators are used to analyze the dynamics of key financial indicators and monitor the implementation of the strategy, which is especially important for assessing business activity, the role of income-generating factors in the context of a sharp change in prices for products sold, which took place in NLMK's activities during the period financial crisis. According to NLMK's annual report:

Total consolidated sales of steel products, million tonnes. This indicator amounted to 10.6 million tons of products in 2009, which is 1% higher than in 2008;

- productivity of one employee (the volume of steel production per employee. In 2009, the indicator reached 169 tons / person for the NLMK group and 269 tons / person for NLMK, which is higher than the 2008 values, respectively, by 13% and 8 %.

To assess the role of commercial and administrative expenses in the formation of profit from sales and net profit, firstly, the traditional approach is used - coefficient analysis, using the following indicators:

Share of selling and administrative expenses in relation to sales proceeds;

Various modifications of indicators, the meaning of which is reduced to the analysis of the effectiveness of commercial and managerial calculations - revenue (or profit) / commercial and (or) administrative costs (see Table 4.6).

The use of the latter is due to the importance of analyzing the effectiveness of marketing and management activities, which can be supplemented by appropriate non-financial indicators.

The considered factors and indicators determine the value and dynamics of profits from the sale of products. To analyze the quality of net profit, it is necessary to study the composition, dynamics, structure of other income and expenses, taking into account the stability of their formation. The assessment of other income and expenses is approached from the standpoint of the materiality of these items as factors of increasing net profit.

Analysis of the financial condition, financial stability, investment attractiveness and quality of profit must be supplemented with an analysis of cash flows, since the formation of indicators of financial results and indicators of profitability and profitability, determined on the basis of the accrual method, do not fully reflect the results of the company. Here are some examples.

First, the measure of revenue from product sales on an accrual basis, along with the product paid by the buyer, may include:

The volume of sales recognized in accordance with the established rules, but the products may not be paid under the terms of the contract at the date of the profit and loss statement (this is evidenced by accounts receivable from buyers in the balance sheet);

The revenue may include products sold under an exchange agreement (barter transactions), which excludes the receipt of funds for the products sold.

These and other reasons determine the inequality of the proceeds from the sale in the income statement and the amount of money received from the buyer for the products sold to him.

Secondly, the current ratio, which is widely used in the analysis of the creditworthiness of borrowers, increases as a result of the recognition of income and expenses from the sale of products and an increase in profits in connection with this, but does not change when funds are received from the buyer to repay receivables.

Thirdly, other income and expenses include income and expenses that are not accompanied by cash flows, but that affect the formation of net profit.

test questions

1. What is the analytical significance of the profit and loss statement as the main form of annual and interim financial reporting?

2. What is meant by the term "financial result"? The system of indicators of financial results, identified in the process of accounting for business transactions and reflected in the profit and loss statement.

3. What Additional information need to be used to analyze income, expenses and financial results? What are the sources of information for external and internal users.

4. The concept and composition of income from ordinary activities and other income.

5. Concept and composition of expenses from ordinary activities and other expenses.

6. What methods of analysis are used when studying the income statement?

7. Characteristics of analytical indicators calculated on the basis of the income statement.

8. How does the accounting policy of the organization affect the indicators of the income statement?

9. Can the change in accounting policy affect the results of the analysis of the income statement?

10. What is the quality of profit and how is it determined?

Order of the Federal Tax Service dated May 30, 2007 No. MM-3-06 / [email protected](as amended by Orders of the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation dated 14.10.2008 No. MM-3-2 / [email protected], dated September 22, 2010 No. ММВ-7-2 / [email protected])

For financial statements for 2003-2010.

November 21, 1996 (as amended by Federal laws of 23.07.1998 N 123-FZ, of 28.03.2002 N 32-FZ, of 31.12.2002 N 187-FZ, of 31.12.2002 N 191-FZ, of 10.01.2003 N 8-FZ, of the Customs Code of the Russian Federation of 28.05 .2003 N 61-FZ, Federal Laws of 30.06.2003 N 86-FZ, of 03.11.2006 N 183-FZ, of 23.11.2009 N 261-FZ, of 27.07.2010 N 209-FZ, of 28.09.2010 N 243-FZ)

For reporting for 2003-2010. the codes are approved by order of the Ministry of Finance of Russia dated November 14, 2003 No. 102n, by order of the State Statistics Committee of Russia dated November 14, 2003 No. 475

See Appendix BB

Http://www.nlmk.ru/

According to tables 4.4 and 4.5

Profitability indicators are calculated according to the data of OJSC Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works - http://www.mmk.ru/rus/shareholders/year_reports/index.wbp

Profitability indicators are calculated according to the data of OJSC “Novosibirsk Metallurgical Plant named after Kuzmin "- http://www.nmz-k.ru/index.php?p=3

Along with the return on assets indicator (net profit and loss / assets).

Order of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia No. 177 dated May 29, 2007. http://www.minprom.gov.ru/activity/metal/strateg/2

Bernstein L.A. Analysis of financial statements. Theory, practice, interpretation.- Moscow: Finance and Statistics, 1996. P. 546.

Debit entries on the "Retained earnings (uncovered loss)" account are related to the reflection of declared dividends, deductions to the reserve capital (if it has not reached the required amount), uncovered losses, a decrease in capital due to revaluation outside current assets(if the additional capital is not enough) and some other items that mean a decrease in capital, but not the production of expenses.

Order of the Ministry of Finance of Russia of October 6, 2008 N 106n (as amended by the Order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation of 11.03.2009 N 22n)

Order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation of May 6, 1999 N 33n (as amended by the Orders of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation of 30.12.1999 N 107n, of 30.03.2001 N 27n, of 18.09.2006 N 116n, of 27.11.2006 N 156n)

See the annual report and consolidated statements of the NLMK Group - http://www.nlmk.ru/

Http://metal4u.ru/news/by_id/3070

On measures for the development of ferrous metallurgy. Abstracts of the report of the Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation V. Khristenko - http://www.minpromtorg.gov.ru/industry/metal/104

See, for example: Endovitsky D.A. Complex economic analysis of the activities of management personnel: scientific publication / D.A. Endovitsky, N.N. Belenova. - M. KNORUS, 20011, p. 149-174

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INTRODUCTION

The financial result of the activities of enterprises is ultimately characterized by indicators of profit (loss).

Profit is the most important factor in stimulating the production and entrepreneurial activity of the enterprise and creates financial basis to expand it, to meet the social needs of the workforce.

Income tax is becoming the main source of budget revenues (federal, republican, local). At the expense of profit are paid off - debt obligations to the bank and investors. Profit becomes the most important generalizing indicator in the system of estimated performance indicators of production, commercial and financial activities enterprises. The amount of profit received by the enterprise is determined by the volume of sales of products, with quality and competitiveness in the domestic and foreign markets, assortment, cost levels and inflationary processes. Therefore, in the conditions of market relations, the analysis of financial results began to occupy one of the leading directions in the field of accounting and management accounting of the enterprise.

Increased relevance and practical relevance analysis of financial results is directly related to the role of profit as an indicator of assessing the effectiveness of economic activities of a commercial organization and a source of financing for expanded reproduction, reflecting the indicators of the organization's financial results of the competence of management and the quality of management decisions.

1. ACCOUNTING THE FINANCIAL RESULTS OF THE ORGANIZATION

The financial result is a generalizing indicator of economic analysis and assessment of the effectiveness (inefficiency) of the activity of an economic entity at certain stages (stages) of its formation. The financial result (profit) of the economic activity of a commercial organization is determined on the basis of comparisons of income and expenses.

Knowledge of the constituent elements of the organization's income and expenses, the procedure for generating income and attributing expenses to the relevant accounting items will allow: to qualitatively assess the nature of their occurrence and content; monitor their movement and condition; identify the factors that influenced the increase (decrease) in income and expenses.

In accordance with PBU 9/99, “the income of an organization is recognized as an increase in economic benefits as a result of the receipt of assets (cash and other property) or the settlement of liabilities, leading to an increase in the capital of the organization.

The income of the organization, depending on their nature, the conditions for receiving and the direction of the organization's activities, are divided into:

income from ordinary activities;

operating income;

non-operating income;

extraordinary income "

In accordance with PBU 10/99, “the expenses of an organization are recognized as a decrease in economic benefits as a result of the disposal of assets (property, cash) or the occurrence of liabilities that reduce the capital of the organization, with the exception of a decrease in contributions to the authorized capital of property owners by their decision.

Expenses are also classified into:

expenses for ordinary activities;

operating expenses;

non-operating expenses;

extraordinary expenses "

Income from ordinary activities includes proceeds from the sale of products and goods; receipts related to the performance of work, the provision of services, which, for the purpose of analyzing and assessing the results of economic activity, are understood as sales volume - an indicator of business activity that characterizes the result of using available resources.

Expenses for ordinary activities - expenses associated with the manufacture of products and their sale, with the performance of work, the provision of services, the purchase and sale of goods.

Also, expenses on ordinary activities are considered to be the reimbursement of the cost of fixed assets, intangible assets and other depreciable assets, carried out in the form of depreciation deductions.

Operating income and expenses are understood as income and expenses that are not related to the subject of the organization's activities.

Non-operating income and expenses arise in connection with business transactions and the facts of business life that are not related to ordinary activities and other operating activities. They are not directly related to the process of production and circulation.

Extraordinary income and expenses arise as a consequence of extraordinary circumstances of economic activity.

The composition of operating, non-operating and extraordinary income and expenses is presented in Table 1.1.

financial forecasting reporting profit

Table 1.1 - Income and expenses of the organization (except for the main types of activities) in accordance with PBU 9/99 and PBU 10/99


Operating
1. Proceeds related to the provision for a fee for temporary use (possession) of the organization's assets	1. Expenses associated with the provision for a fee for temporary use (possession) of the organization's assets
2. Proceeds related to the granting for a fee of rights arising from patents for inventions, industrial designs and other types of intellectual property	2. Costs associated with the provision for a fee for temporary use (possession) arising from patents for inventions, industrial designs and other types of intellectual property
3. Income related to participation in authorized capital other organizations (including interest and other income from securities)	3. Expenses associated with participation in the authorized capital of other organizations
4. Proceeds from the sale of fixed assets and other assets other than cash (except for foreign currency)	4. Expenses associated with the sale, disposal and other write-off of fixed assets and other assets other than cash (other than foreign currency)
5. Interest received for the provision of funds for use of the organization (on bonds, deposits and bills)	5. Interest paid by the organization for the use of funds (credits, loans)
6. Interest for the use by the bank of funds in the organization's account	6. Expenses related to payment for services rendered by credit institutions
7. Profit received by the organization as a result joint activities(under a simple partnership agreement), etc.	7. Contributions to valuation reserves created in accordance with accounting rules

The most important form of expression of the effectiveness of activities and the ultimate goal of business development is profit (loss). In the context of the development of market relations, the role of profit has increased significantly. It is profit that is the driving force behind the work of organizations, the reward for entrepreneurial activity and risk, a source of self-sufficiency and self-financing of each individual enterprise [.

The main source of profit formation from the sale of goods (works, services) of trade organizations is gross profit. Gross profit, which in trade refers to the difference between the selling and purchasing value sold goods... After reducing the amount of gross profit by the amount of expenses associated with the activities of the trade organization, there is such an absolute indicator characterizing the financial result from the main activities of the organization, such as profit from sales. This is the main element of profit before tax, which for a normally functioning organization forms the basis of net profit and reflects the role of marketing and production factors in shaping financial results.

Profit before tax is the sum of the result from the sale of goods, the result from operating activities, the balance of income and expenses from non-operating transactions. This indicator characterizes the magnitude of the overall economic effect obtained from financial and economic activities in the normal conditions of the organization's functioning.

The final financial result of the organization's economic activity is the net profit (loss) of the reporting year, which is determined by subtracting the amount of deferred tax assets and current income tax from the amount of profit before tax and adding to it the amount of deferred tax liabilities. The analytical value of this indicator is due to the various and numerous factors of its formation. Assessing the role of these factors allows you to analyze the quality of profit, real capital gains, predict changes in financial results, assess the quality of management decisions of the organization's management in the reporting year. The role of the net profit indicator is also due to the fact that it shows the possibilities and boundaries of the organization's capital for the purpose of expanded reproduction and the payment of income to the owners (participants and founders of the organization) based on the results of the reporting year.

To assess the efficiency of a trading enterprise, one sum indicator of profit is not enough. The absolute amount of profit does not allow judging how profitable the enterprise is, it is impossible to compare different trading enterprises, since when receiving the same amount of profit, they can have different sales volumes and distribution costs. Therefore, to determine the effectiveness of the organization's activities, they use relative rate- the level of profitability. Determination of profitability characterizes the percentage ratio of the amount of profit received to one of the indicators of trade.

Analysis and forecasting of financial results allows us to identify opportunities for their improvement and, based on the results of calculations, make economically sound decisions.

In the process of analyzing financial results, the following tasks are solved:

Study and assessment of the dynamics of indicators of profit and profitability for the analyzed period;

Study of the sources and structure ("quality") of the balance sheet profit;

Study of individual components of profit from the position of identifying the possibility of eliminating non-productive costs and losses;

Identification of reserves for improving the structure of financial results, hence the "quality" of profits and further increase in profitability indicators;

According to the definition of Vladimirova L. P. "The main task of predicting financial results is the desire to foresee, realize and timely adapt in their goals and capabilities to the evolving business circumstances":

identification of objectively emerging trends in economic activity;

analysis of the potential of the company;

identification of alternatives for the development of the organization;

identification of problems requiring solution in the forecast period;

determination of the level of resources that: a) may be needed by the firm to achieve the objectives of the activity; b) will be at the firm.

Great importance is attached to accounting (financial) statements, which are unified system data on property and financial condition organization and the results of its activities. It is formed on the basis of accounting data in the established forms:

1. Form No. 1 "Balance sheet", which reflects the amount of retained earnings or uncovered loss (section III of the liability) /

2. Form No. 2 "Profit and Loss Statement" - is one of the main forms of financial statements of commercial organizations, compiled for the year and for intra-annual periods. The report is the main source of information on the formation and use of profit. It shows the articles that form the financial result from all types of activities.

3. Form No. 3 "Statement of changes in capital" - reflects the state and change in the reserve fund, information on retained earnings of previous years in composition, allows you to assess the use of profits of previous years.

4. Form No. 4 "Statement of Cash Flows" - its data allow you to assess the amount of receipts and expenditures of funds by areas of activity and to find out the reasons for the difference between net profit and net cash inflow.

5. Form No. 5 "Appendix to the Balance Sheet" - contains information on the organization's expenses for ordinary activities, grouped by economic cost elements; on the amount of amortization of non-current assets for each of their types at the beginning and end of the reporting year (Appendix D and G).

Among the accounting sources of information, the following forms of statistical reporting should be noted:

Form P-1 "Information on the production and shipment of goods and services";

Form P-4 "Information on the number, wages and movement of workers";

Form No. 5-z "Information on the costs of production and sale of products (works, services)";

№ PM "Information on the main indicators of the activity of a small enterprise."

The initial information is subject to various types of analytical processing using methods of analysis and forecasting of financial results. A careful study of the accounting records is the first step towards disclosing the reasons for the current financial situation; the basis for an economically sound assessment of financial results and the level of financial stability and solvency of a particular organization, identifying the main ways of financial recovery.

Requirements, principles of drawing up financial statements, its composition and content, deadlines for submission are regulated by the following regulatory documents:

Federal law of the Russian Federation from 21.11.96. (as amended on June 30, 2003 No. 61, entered into force on January 1, 2004) No. 129-FZ “On Accounting”;

Regulations on accounting and financial reporting in the Russian Federation, approved by order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation of 07/29/98. (as amended on 03.24.00 as amended on 08.23.00) No. 34n;

Regulation on accounting "Financial statements of the organization" (PBU 4/99). Approved by order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation of July 6, 1999 No. 43n.

2. ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL RESULTS

2.1 Analysis of the formation of net profit and assessment of its quality

The financial results of the economic activities of a commercial organization are determined on the accounts of accounting by comparing income and expenses, for which the accounts of Section VIII "Financial Results" are intended in the Chart of Accounts for the financial and economic activities of the organization.

Account 99 "Profits and losses" is used to summarize information on the formation of the final financial result of the organization's activities in the reporting year. The profit and loss account is linked to other synthetic accounting accounts that reflect the movement of an organization's income and expenses. So, on account 90 "Sales" the financial result from economic activity is formed, which is reflected in the statements of f. No. 2 "Profit and Loss Statement", approved by the Order of the Ministry of Finance on July 22, 2003. No. 67N, in two indicators: gross profit and profit from sales. If the gross profit is calculated as the difference between the proceeds from sales and the cost of goods, products, works, services sold, then the profit from sales is formed as the difference between the proceeds from sales and the total cost of goods, products, works, services sold, including the cost of goods sold. , products, works, services, commercial and administrative expenses.

Gross profit is calculated using the formula:

VP = BP - Sat / st

Where VP - gross profit, thousand rubles; ВР - sales proceeds, thousand rubles;

Sat / st - the cost of goods, products, works, services sold.

Profit from sales is calculated using the formula

PP = VR - Sat / st - RP - UR

Where RP - selling expenses (selling expenses); SD - administrative expenses.

The financial result from ordinary activities is expressed in profit (loss) before tax (the difference between income and expenses from the main, financial or investment activities). The algorithm for generating profit (loss) before tax is shown in Figure 2.1.1

Figure 2.1.1 - The procedure for the formation of profit (loss) before tax

The final financial result of the organization's activities is net (undistributed) profit (NP), which is formed on account 99 "Profit and Loss" and can be calculated using the following formula:

PE = PDN - SHE + IT - TN

Where PE is net profit,

PDN - profit before tax,

SHE is a deferred tax asset,

IT - deferred tax liability,

ТН - current income tax.

Net profit is the main indicator for declaring dividends to shareholders, as well as a source of funds allocated to increase the authorized and reserve capital, capitalization of the organization's profit.

The amount of net profit of the reporting year is written off by the final turnovers of December on the credit of account 84 "Retained earnings (uncovered loss)" in correspondence with account 99 "Profits and losses". The amount of the net loss of the reporting year is written off by the final turnovers of December to the debit of account 84 "Retained earnings (uncovered loss)" in correspondence with account 99 "Profits and losses".

In order to identify losses at the stage of profit formation and study the possibility of converting them into reserves by eliminating the reasons that caused the losses, it is necessary to conduct a factor analysis of the change in net profit.

The change in profit from sales is influenced by such factors as:

Change in the volume of proceeds from the sale of goods;

Change in the average level of gross profit;

Change in the average cost of selling goods.

In addition to profit from sales, the amount of net profit is also affected by:

Changes in operating income and expenses;

Change in non-operating income and expenses;

Change in deferred tax assets;

Change in deferred tax liabilities;

Change in current income tax.

The next step in the analysis of net profit is to assess its quality.

The concept of quality of profit is applied to assess the reliability of profit. Such a structure of profit before tax is assessed positively, in which the main share is accounted for by profit from sales, and the balance of operating and non-operating results increases profit from core activities. However, the organization does not comply with this condition, since the indicator of the operating result has a negative value. On this basis, it can be concluded that the quality of profit before tax is low.

To concretize the assessment of the quality of profit, it is possible to analyze the cash flow by an indirect method. The essence of the indirect method consists in converting net profit into the amount of cash inflow (outflow) through a series of adjustments. Profit adjustments fall into three main groups:

Adjustments for changes in non-cash current assets and current liabilities to convert net income from a cumulative basis to a cash basis.

Adjustments for items related to operating activities, but not accompanied by cash flows in the current period.

Adjustments for items that relate to investing and financing activities.

The information base for the analysis is the balance sheet (Form No. 1), profit and loss statement (Form No. 2), annex to the balance sheet (Form No. 5). The possibility of converting net profit into the amount of cash inflow or outflow follows from the form of the balance sheet

DS + VNA + OTHER = Fotch.per + SKproch. + ZK, therefore

DS = Frequently Asked Questions. + SKpr. + TO + KO - VNA - OTHER, from here

DS = Frequently Asked Questions. + SKpr. + TO + KO - VNA - OBAPR.

Thus, the change in cash can be considered as the net profit of the reporting period, reduced by the change in non-current and current assets, other than cash, and reduced by the change equity capital, long-term and short-term liabilities.

2.2 Analysis of the components of profit

In an unstable, volatile environment great importance in business has an operational return on capital in the form of cash flows. Therefore, entrepreneurs are of particular interest in information about objects of capital investment from the point of view of their current efficiency... The main cash flows of the organization are formed in the form of gross profit. Therefore, it is highly relevant to analyze its dynamics.

Gross profit is an indicator characterizing the financial result trading activities and defined as the excess of proceeds from the sale of goods and services over the costs of their acquisition (Trade. Terms and definitions GOST R51303-99, approved by the post. Gosstandart of Russia dated 11.08.99 No. 242-st).

Gross margin is the main source of financing for trading activities. The size of the profit and the profitability of the organization depends on it.

The main indicator that determines the amount of gross profit is the trade markup to the cost of goods. The level of the markup is set depending on the customer demand, expressed market prices on the this item, the cost price and selling costs of this product.

The gross margin analysis starts with general analysis, during which its change in dynamics is studied. For this, methods of comparison and relative values of dynamics are used, applied both in relation to absolute values and in relation to the level of gross profit.

After a general analysis, the influence of the proceeds from the sale of goods and the level of gross profit on the change in the absolute value of gross profit, revealed in the course of the general analysis, is studied.

The influence of these factors can be calculated by any of the known methods of direct deterministic factor connection, in connection with the multiplicative model for calculating gross profit

(VP = VR * Uvp / 100)

VP (? VR) = (VR1 - VR0) * Uvp0 / 100

They are measured in absolute terms and at the level as a percentage of the turnover.

The level of sales costs is one of the most important qualitative indicators for assessing the financial performance of a commercial organization. In percentage terms, it shows how many rubles of costs are per 100 rubles of turnover, and if the level of sales costs is expressed in the form of a coefficient, then how many kopecks of costs are per 1 ruble of turnover.

A relative reduction in costs, that is, a decrease in their level, is the main prerequisite for an increase in profits and profitability of sales.

The value of analyzing sales costs is:

in an economically sound assessment of the dynamics of costs and compliance with cost estimates,

in identifying internal reserves of relative cost reduction by eliminating non-productive costs and losses.

The analysis of selling costs begins with a general analysis that identifies the trend in costs.

РП (? ВР) = (ВР1 - ВР0) * Урп0 / 100

RP (? Urp) = (Urp 1 - Urp 0) * VR1 / 100

At the next stage of the analysis of expenses for the sale of goods, it is necessary to specify the total amount of sales expenses for individual cost elements.

All factors affecting the costs of trade organizations can be divided into 2 groups:

Subjective - depending on the activities of the collectives of trade organizations;

Objective - not dependent on their activities.

The most important subjective factors include changes in the volume and structure of trade.

Depending on the nature of the influence of sales volume, all expenses are divided into conditionally variable and conditionally fixed.

The conditionally variable costs change in absolute value almost in direct proportion to the turnover, while their level remains unchanged. The absolute value of conditionally fixed costs does not change under the influence of sales proceeds, while their level changes in inverse proportion.

To calculate the influence of the desired factor on the change in the sum of conditional variables and the level of conditionally fixed costs, the method of chain substitutions is used.

The second important factor is the change in the structure of sales proceeds. To calculate the influence of this factor, the use of the method of differences with the use of percentage numbers is provided. However, it is practically impossible to apply this method in this case, since the costs are taken into account without differentiation by commodity groups. In trade organizations, there is no information characterizing the cost intensity of certain groups of goods.

When calculating the effect of changes in tariffs and rates for services on changes in the organization's expenses, a methodology is used that is similar to the effect of changes in prices for goods. A distinctive feature is only that it is not the turnover that is subject to recalculation, but the selling costs.

To establish the reasons for the admitted cost overruns or savings, to identify and use the opportunities and reserves to reduce sales costs, it is necessary to study them in the context of cost elements.

One of the main cost elements in trade is labor costs. These expenses occupy a significant share in the structure of sales expenses. In addition, the amount of deductions for social needs (UST) directly depends on the amount of labor costs. These reasons dictate the need for a thorough analysis of labor costs in order to identify internal reserves of their relative reduction.

When studying the influence of factors that determine the change in the absolute value of labor costs (ROT), the following model is used

ROT = H * ZP

In order to increase the list of factors affecting the change in labor costs, they resort to modeling the initial factor system, the essence of which is to decompose average headcount into its constituent factors - sales revenue and labor productivity:

For the successful development of any commercial organization, it is necessary to control the ratio of proceeds from the sale of goods to costs and profits.

One of the main practical results of dividing expenses into conditionally variable and conditionally constant is to determine for each specific situation the volume of sales that ensures a break-even activity.

The amount of sales at which trade organizations cover their costs, but do not make a profit, that is, they have zero financial result, is called the critical break-even point or the threshold of profitability (PR). The profitability threshold in value terms is calculated as the ratio of fixed costs (RPpost) to the level of marginal income (Umd):

PR = RPpost / Umd

The level of marginal income, calculated as the ratio of marginal income (MD) to sales revenue, expressed as a percentage, shows how many kopecks of fixed costs and profits are accounted for per ruble of products sold:

Umd = MD / BP * 100

Margin income or gross margin is the difference between gross profit (VP) and the sum of variable costs (RPper). Marginal income serves as a source of covering fixed costs and generating profits.

MD = VP - RPper.

In physical terms, the profitability threshold is defined as the ratio of fixed costs to the difference between the selling price of a unit of production (C) and specific variable costs (UperR):

PR (units) = RPpost / (C-UperR)

Stock financial strength(FPP) shows a possible decrease in sales, in which, other things being equal, the organization will still cover its costs, i.e. have a financial result greater than or equal to zero.

Financial strength margin in value terms:

ZFP (thousand rubles) = VRf - PR

where VRf is the actual sales proceeds.

Financial safety margin as a percentage of actual sales

ZFP (%) = (VRf - PR) / VRf * 100

The operating lever is one of the key elements operational analysis, along with such indicators as the level of marginal income, the threshold of profitability and the margin of financial strength. The strength of the operating leverage indicates how much of the change in sales profit is generated by each percentage change in revenue.

The effect of operating leverage is that any change in sales revenue always generates a stronger (in relative terms) change in profit. This effect is due to the varying degree of influence of the dynamics of fixed and variable costs on the formation of the financial results of the organization's activities when the volume of sales changes. The higher the level of fixed costs, the greater the power of the operating leverage. Pointing to the rate at which profits fall with each percentage of revenue decline, the strength of the operating leverage indicates the level of entrepreneurial risk of a given organization.

Operating leverage (ERP) is calculated by the ratio of marginal income (MD) to profit from sales (PP)

EOR = MD / PP = (VD-RPper) / (VD-RPper-RPpost)

In the formation of net profit, an important role is played by such components as operational, non-operating and extraordinary results, the information base for the analysis of which is the breakdowns by items reflecting the corresponding income and expenses in form No. 2 and analytical accounting data for accounts 91/1, 91/2 and 99.

The methodology for analyzing operational, non-operational and extraordinary results involves the use of comparison techniques, relative values of dynamics and structure. The actual values of the corresponding income and expenses for the same period last year are used as a basis for comparison.

Non-operating expenses are especially carefully studied, since their bulk is due to the ill-conceived social policy of the organization, and often direct mismanagement. Based primary documents the culprits are identified certain types non-operating expenses and recommendations are developed to eliminate the causes of the identified deficiencies.

2.3 Cost benefit analysis

The business activities of any trade organization must be assessed in terms of the efficiency of converting resources into results. At the same time, profit cannot act as a determining criterion for assessing the effectiveness of an economic entity. Therefore, for a reasonable assessment of financial results, along with the absolute indicators characterizing them, relative indicators are also calculated, which are the relative values of intensity (profitability).

Due to the fact that the financial statements allow calculating a large number of profitability indicators, they must be systematized into separate groups in order to streamline and ensure optimality in the implementation of settlement procedures. In general, all profitability indicators can be formed into 3 groups:

the ratio of various indicators of profit to sales revenue;

the ratio of net profit to the average amount of resources used in the process of economic activity;

the ratio of net cash inflow (outflow) to proceeds from the sale of goods or to the average value of assets.

Since only profitability indicators related to the first group and partially indicators of the second group are used to assess financial results, they will be calculated and analyzed in the future.

At the first stage of the profitability analysis, a general analysis of profitability indicators is carried out based on the use of a comparison technique, which allows you to identify and assess the trend of changes in the financial results of the organization.

It should be noted that averages of assets or equity are used in calculating some profitability indicators, rather than moment data. The average value of assets or capital is determined based on the balance sheet data using the arithmetic simple average formula.

At the next stage, a factor analysis of profitability indicators is carried out, calculating the influence of factors in the original profitability models using the method of chain substitutions

When analyzing profitability indicators, in addition to accepting chain substitutions, the equity method is used, which makes it possible to identify the influence of the factors that caused the change in the corresponding profit indicators on the change in profitability due to the influence of this profit indicator. Next, the initial profitability indicators are simulated using different methods and get new factor models that allow you to expand the list of factors affecting the change in the profitability indicator:

PE VR PE VR

1.Rа = * 100 * = * 100 * = Rd * Ca

R a - return on assets;

PE - net profit;

A is the average value of assets;

BP - sales revenue;

Rd - profitability of activities;

From the presented model, it follows that the profit received from each ruble of funds invested in assets depends on the rate of turnover of funds and on the share of net profit in sales proceeds. An organization can achieve an acceptable value of the return on assets both due to the high profitability of activities (sales) and due to the high turnover of funds. Note that the second situation is typical for trade enterprises.

2. Rsk = * 100 * * = Rd * Ca *

SK VR A SK

R ck-return on equity;

PE - net profit;

A is the average value of assets;

SK is the average value of equity capital;

BP - sales revenue;

Rd - profitability of activities;

Ca is the asset turnover rate.

According to this relationship, the return on equity capital is directly proportional to the change in the profitability of activities and asset turnover (their product gives the return on assets) and inversely proportional to the change in the share of equity in the total amount of sources of property formation.

2.4 Analysis of the use of net profit

The profit (from sales) obtained as a result of economic activity is used to pay taxes to the budget, and the rest of the profit goes to the formation of special funds that allow materially incentivizing employees, improving their social conditions, expanding production, and re-equipping it technically.

The main task of analyzing the distribution and use of profit from ordinary activities is to identify trends and proportions that have developed in the distribution and use of profit for the reporting period in comparison with the plan and in dynamics, and most importantly, it is necessary to identify the degree of expediency of its use.

To analyze the use of profits, the provisions of the Law on taxes and fees levied in the budget, instructive and guidelines Of the Ministry of Finance, the organization's charter, as well as data from the profit and loss statement, annexes to the balance sheet, analytical accounting on account 84 "Use of profit (uncovered loss)".

In the course of a general analysis of the use of profit, such techniques as comparison, relative values of structure and dynamics are used.

Profit can be used in several ways:

consumption fund;

incentive fund (charitable purposes);

accumulation fund.

Accumulation fund - combines that part of the profit remaining at the disposal of the enterprise, which is aimed at the construction and acquisition of fixed assets and working capital, that is, to create new property of the enterprise.

Usually, most of the profits are used to create special funds, in this regard, it is important to assess the degree of use of funds from the funds and their impact on the growth of the estimated performance of the enterprise.

3. FORECASTING FINANCIAL RESULTS

3.1 Theoretical aspects financial forecasting

Due to the fact that at present the development of market relations in the Russian economy is characterized by a certain degree of chaos, rapid changes in environmental conditions, it is advisable to plan the activities of an enterprise. This allows you to make the best management decisions based on specific values of economic parameters as of a specific date.

Forecasting is the process of forming development forecasts based on the analysis of trends in this development. According to the definition of Vladimirov L. P. "A forecast is a scientifically grounded judgment about the possible states of an object at a certain period of time in the future, alternative ways and the timing of their implementation."

Forecasting allows you to consider the emerging trends in the conduct of financial policy, taking into account the impact on it of internal and external conditions and, on the basis of the analysis, determine the prospects for a financial strategy that provides the company with a stable financial and market position.

The basic principles of forecasting include:

consistency of the forecast;

the adequacy of the forecast (the theoretical analogue of the process should simulate the future with a sufficient degree of reliability);

observability, allowing the use of statistical data in calculations. It should be noted that in order to improve the forecasting accuracy, it is necessary to select the optimal period for which the trends in changes in the actual indicators are analyzed, as well as the forecasting period itself. As for the first, with its lengthening, the degree of relevance (attitude to business) of the data of past periods decreases. At the same time, the selected period should be sufficient to identify trends and cycles. With regard to the second, it is known that with an increase in the forecasting (planning) period, the degree of uncertainty of both the internal and external environment increases. In general, the following dependence can be distinguished: the more qualitative the planned (predicted) indicators are, the longer the time period of the past should be taken into account and the longer the planning (forecasting) horizon can take place;

alternativeness (taking into account the possibility of developing an indicator or process in different directions);

scientific validity (involves determining the quality, reliability of the result).

Forecasting stages:

1. Formation of goals, research objectives, initial data on the considered indicator (process).

2. Choosing a forecasting method, building a forecasting model, that is, determining the elements that determine the variability of the indicator in the future.

3. Development of an alternative forecast.

4. Assessment of the reliability and accuracy of the forecast.

The forecasting method is a set of techniques and methods of thinking that make it possible to derive judgments of a certain reliability of the relative future development of the process on the basis of retrospective data, existing or assumed exogenous (external) and endogenous relationships.

Predictive analysis methods can be divided into two large groups: quantitative and qualitative.

The main qualitative forecasting methods are Pragmatic (expert methods) and functional-logical forecasting methods.

Expert forecasting methods are based on the opinions of a specialist or a team of specialists with professional, scientific and practical experience. Expert assessments are divided into collective: methods of "Delphi", "focus groups", "brainstorming", "demon", "commissions" and individual: methods of interviews, script writing, questionnaires, analytical reports.

At correct application and highly qualified specialists method expert assessments gives good results. And although the judgments and assessments of experts, especially with a lack of information on the issues under study, are subjective, which is a disadvantage of this method, in Russian conditions it is advisable to focus on it. The reason is that taking into account general economic, political, social and other fuzzy factors is possible only on the basis of subjective assessments. And it is necessary to take these factors into account when forecasting and planning, since it is they, and not the factors internal environment, have a decisive impact on the activities of commercial organizations in modern Russian conditions. Expert judgment can serve as a real tool for accounting for the impact of uncertainty on the performance of organizations.

The main quantitative methods for predicting the financial results of an enterprise include such methods as balance, economic and statistical, economic and mathematical.

The balance method for forecasting can be used both at the enterprise level and at the regional (country) level.

At the enterprise level, the balance forecasting method is based on the use in the calculations of the main balance formula of commodity resources, on the basis of which a trading company can forecast both the volume of turnover and the size of the receipt of goods for the future period.

Economic and statistical forecasting methods include several methods and methods for calculating forecast indicators.

Forecasting based on the calculation of the average annual growth rate of the indicator under study;

Forecasting by aligning the dynamic range of indicators with a moving average. Each indicator in the time period is assigned symbol K and align the resulting time series with the moving average after 2 or 3 steps.

Use in calculations for predicting the coefficient of elasticity. The coefficient of elasticity shows how many percent the predicted indicator changes when the factor that determines it changes by 1%.

The advantages of economic and statistical forecasting methods are as follows:

Uncomplicated and simple calculation;

Possibility of forecasting, both by the total volume of the indicator and by its individual elements;

Does not require special knowledge and computers.

The disadvantages of these forecasting methods are:

Transferring the trends of the past periods to the forecast period without taking into account changes in the factors of the external and internal environment;

A small lead-in period in the forecast.

Models based on the use of the apparatus of correlation and regression analyzes have become quite widespread in forecasting. The mathematical tool when using this method is the correlation-regression apparatus, and the models are built in the form of regression equations characterizing the dependence of the indicator on the factors that determine it. However, when using this method, it is necessary to take into account that correlation and regression analyzes are based on a number of prerequisites of a probabilistic nature, based on the hypothesis that the situation in the future is some functional reflection of the situation that took place in the past, that is, the current trends in the development of the planned indicator are transferred to the predicted one. period.

A more accurate forecast of the indicator can be obtained by the method of economic and mathematical modeling using the apparatus of factor analysis, which makes it possible to determine the degree of quantitative impact of various factors on the process of forming and changing the indicator. Economic and mathematical modeling as a forecasting tool is a process of developing multiple regression equations, where the value of the indicator acts as a function, and the factors that form it as arguments.

In the mathematical interpretation, economic and mathematical models have the form of linear, exponential, power, exponential, logarithmic, polynomial and other equations.

The choice of a specific forecasting method from the above set is determined by a number of factors:

Provision of primary and secondary information necessary for making settlements;

The complexity of the predicted indicator in the system of performance indicators of the enterprise;

The length of the forecast period;

Organizational and technical capabilities of information processing and forecasting calculations;

The degree of reliability and reliability of forecast calculations.

When using any forecasting methods, the actual results of the firm's activities are often very different from the forecasts, which may be due, firstly, to changes in the efficiency of economic and financial activities of organizations and, secondly, to the imperfection of the forecast itself.

Thus, a collision with two types of risk is inevitable: the risk of economic activity and the risk of forecasting. To reduce the risk of the first type, it is necessary to take into account more thoroughly all the factors affecting the predicted indicator, to involve the organization's specialists in the relevant areas in forecasting. The risk of forecasting is caused by a number of reasons: imperfection of the used forecasting methods, simple extrapolation of data from the past to the future, the impossibility of accurately determining the probability of events and their impact on the object under study, unforeseen (destructive) events that can change the direction of the trend. The risk of this type can be reduced by studying and using the accumulated forecasting experience, both domestic and foreign, including modern methods of expert assessments, models, simulation calculations of predicted indicators under various assumptions and assumptions using computer technology.

3.2 Forecasting financial performance

When forecasting financial results, it is necessary to determine the forecasting tasks:

Sales revenue forecasting;

Forecasting business expenses;

Profit forecasting;

Assessment of the expected dynamics of financial results in comparison with the reporting period;

Drawing up a forecast profit and loss statement.

The initial and defining point of forecasting the financial results of the activities of enterprises is the forecast of proceeds from sales, which can be carried out by several methods: balance, economic and statistical, economic and mathematical, the method of expert assessments, etc.

In order to fulfill the sales revenue forecast, we use several methods:

Economic and statistical method:

According to the average annual growth rate;

Time series alignment with a moving average;

Calculation and analytical method.

Extrapolation method (trend line highlighting)

CONCLUSION

Summarizing the results of the analysis of the final financial results, you can:

Analyze and form a forecast of the final financial results of a particular organization;

Develop measures to use the identified reserves of profit growth and profitability.

To eliminate the identified negative aspects in the activities of the organization, the management can be offered to implement the following recommendations:

to strengthen control over the timeliness and reliability of reflection on the accounts of all business transactions;

periodically monitor the fulfillment of contractual obligations by counterparties, involving the accounting department and the sales department;

reduce the time between inventory periods.

It seems that the implementation of the above measures will eliminate the identified negative aspects in the organization's activities and improve the financial results of activities.

Highly relevant in modern business forecasting of financial results becomes, since obtaining reliable estimates of future indicators is an important stage in the process of making current and long-term management decisions.

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20. Order of the Ministry of Finance of Russia dated December 30, 1996 No. 112 "On Methodological Recommendations for the Preparation and Presentation of Consolidated Financial Statements"; clarified by order of the Ministry of Finance of Russia dated May 12, 1999 No. Z6n "On Amendments and Additions to the Methodological Recommendations for the Preparation and Presentation of Consolidated Financial Statements".

21. Order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation of July 22, 2003 No. 67n "On the forms of financial statements of organizations."

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Introduction

In a market economy, the most important indicator of an organization's performance is performance. The concept of "performance" consists of several important components of the financial and economic activities of the organization. The most common characteristic of the effectiveness of the financial and economic activities of the organization was considered to be the turnover, that is, the total sales of products (services) for a certain period. For organizations operating in a market economy, the main indicator reflecting the effectiveness of their activities is profit.

A generalizing assessment of the organization's activities is given on the basis of such resulting financial indicators as profit (loss) - an absolute indicator and profitability - a relative indicator. Profit and profitability reflect the efficiency of the manufacturing process.

IN In general, a certain economic meaning is put into the concept of "financial result": the excess (decrease) of the cost of the manufactured product over the cost of its production; excess of the cost of products sold over the total costs incurred in connection with its production and sale; excess of net (retained) profit over incurred losses, which ultimately is the financial and economic basis for the increase in the organization's equity capital. In a market economy, the management of financial results is central to the business life of an economic entity. In addition, a positive financial result also testifies to the effective and appropriate use of the organization's assets, its fixed and working capital.

Financial results are the credit of the organization. In this case, profit is the result of good work or external objective and subjective factors, and loss is the result bad work or external negative factors. Profit is, on the one hand, the main source of funding for the activities of organizations, and on the other, a source of budget revenues different levels... Article 50 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation states that making a profit is the main goal of the activities of commercial organizations.

Making a profit will ensure the further development of the commercial organization. At the same time, the resulting profitability should be considered not only the main goal, but also the main condition for the business activity of the organization, as a result of its activities, the effective implementation of its functions to provide consumers with the necessary goods in accordance with the existing demand for them.

In a market economy, the study of financial results for the purpose of alternative use of resources, as well as the search for factors that affect their size, is of priority importance, since the efficiency of business functioning depends on the depth of knowledge and the correct use of the result obtained. Analysis of financial results is one of the most important aspects of the study of the economic activity of the enterprise. Studying the composition and structure of profit, conducting a factor analysis of the result of the sale is necessary to assess financial performance and economic forecasting. The purpose of the analysis of financial results is to quantify the reasons that caused the change in profit or loss, tax payments from profit to the budget, to identify the impact of costs on changes in financial results or the impact of price changes caused by market conditions.

Particular attention in the process of analyzing and assessing the dynamics of the financial results of the organization's activities should be paid to the most significant article of their formation - profit (loss) from the sale of goods, products, work performed, services rendered as the most important component of economic (net) profit.

Analysis of the financial result on the basis of the profit and loss account as mandatory elements includes a study of changes in each indicator for the analyzed period, the study of structural changes. AND The study of the financial result traditionally involves the study of the dynamics of indicators for a number of reporting periods.

Analysis of financial results involves solving the following tasks:

analysis of the composition and dynamics of profit;

analysis of financial results from ordinary and other types of activities;

analysis of the distribution and use of profits.

IN term paper the theoretical foundations of the analysis of the financial results of the enterprise are presented, the analysis of profit before taxation, the analysis of profit from sales, the analysis of profitability, and also the ways of improving the financial results of the enterprise are considered.

1. Theoretical basis analysis of the financial results of the enterprise

1.1 The economic essence of financial results

In modern economic science, the term "profit" and its content cause a lot of controversy and discrepancy. The currently existing possibility of an ambiguous interpretation of the definitions of types of profit gives rise to problematic situations associated with the assessment and study of this complex economic category. As the economic theory the complex of concepts and terms defining profit has undergone significant changes from the simplest in the quality of income from production and sale to the concept that characterizes the final financial results in all its diversity commercial activities.

The concept of profit as the development of economic theory has become increasingly complex. Moreover, the interpretation of profit was and still remains rather controversial. Without a doubt, common to all researchers-economists in the field of profit is the opinion that profit is a difference, a deviation, a remainder. Researchers unanimously view profits as "something" in the proceeds of a sale. Disagreements, and very significant ones, arise when trying to establish what components this "something" consists of. So, according to J.St. Mill, for example, the profit is calculated by subtracting from the company's income the costs of purchasing the necessary goods and services (raw materials, transport), as well as paid to staff wages... This interpretation of profit as a composite income was challenged by McKilloch, and then, after some hesitation, by A. Marshall. In their opinion, in addition to the above-mentioned costs, the remuneration of the capital used in this production should also be deducted from the company's income. It should be immediately noted what kind of capital we are talking about: borrowed, equity or capital in general - it is not clear. Further, based on the ideas of H. von Thünen and L. Walras, Nait and Weston introduced the concept of net profit, a kind of remainder from the remainder, from which, in addition to the already mentioned elements, remuneration to the company's management and risk premiums are removed.

K. Marx, investigating the nature of surplus value, points out that "surplus value or that part of the total value of a commodity in which the surplus - or unpaid - labor of the worker is embodied, I call profit". In other words, the normal and average profit, according to Marx, is formed in the form of the share of unpaid labor of workers when goods are sold at their actual value.

In modern economics, profit is considered from two positions - microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. At the microeconomic level, it is associated with the process of education in existing organizations, and at the macroeconomic level, the place of profit in the income of the state is determined.

For example, from the theoretical studies of V.P. Petrov, it follows that profit is formed in the process of circulation and circulation of funds in macroeconomics and characterizes the growth (increase) of the real wealth of the state in monetary terms. In practice, it manifests itself in the form of increased wealth of individual entrepreneurs. Therefore, the profit of all enterprises in the aggregate should be equal to the sum of the increase in the state's wealth. Similarly, profit can be viewed in the world space.

It is not enough to consider profit only from the standpoint of defining the economic category and its functions. For a more complete description of profit, it should be presented both as effective and as quantitative indicators: effective - it reflects the effectiveness of the use of available resources, the results of the organization; quantitative is the difference between the price and value of goods, between the volume of sales and the cost price.

The American economist Samuelson believed that profit is an unconditional income from factors of production, it is a reward for entrepreneurial activity, technical innovations and improvements, for the ability to take risks in conditions of uncertainty, it is a monopoly income and an ethical category.

The financial results of a commercial organization are characterized by the amount of profit and its level of profitability.

The main sources of information during the analysis are analytical accounting data and a statement of financial results.

Algorithm and sequence of analysis of financial results

A. D. Sheremet proposes to analyze the profit and profitability of products in the following sequence:

A number of indicators are formed, in which the financial results of the organization are manifested ”. At the same time, such indicators as gross profit, profit (loss) from sales, profit (loss from sales and other non-operating activities, profit (loss) before tax (total accounting profit), profit (loss) from ordinary activities, net profit ( retained earnings (loss) of the reporting period).

The analysis at the preliminary stage is carried out both in terms of absolute indicators of profit and in terms of its relative indicators, for example, in relation to profit to proceeds from sales - in terms of profitability of sales.

An in-depth analysis is carried out by examining the influence on the amount of profit and profitability of sales of various factors, which are subdivided into a group of external and a group of internal factors.

Then the impact of inflation on the financial results from product sales is analyzed.

The quality of profit is studied - a generalized characteristic of the structure of sources of formation of profit.

The analysis of the profitability of the company's assets is carried out.

Profit margin analysis is performed.

1. The classification of profit is given, which is considered as an indicator of the effect of economic activity. For analysis purposes, profit is classified:

in the order of formation: gross profit, marginal income, profit before tax, net profit;
by sources of formation: profit from the sale of services, profit from the sale of property, non-operating profit;
by type of activity: profit from ordinary activities, profit from investment activities, profit from financial activities;
by frequency of receipt: regular profit, extraordinary profit;
by the nature of use: profit directed to dividends (consumed), profit capitalized (retained) profit.

At the same time, it identifies the following goals of profit management:

profit maximization in accordance with the enterprise resources and market conditions;
achieving the optimal ratio between the maximum possible level of profit and the risk of its receipt;
high quality profit;
ensuring an appropriate level of payment of dividends to owners;
ensuring a sufficient volume of investments due to retained earnings;
increase in the market value of the enterprise;
ensuring effective programs for personnel participation in the distribution of profits.

2. Profit indicators are formed, the bases of their calculation are revealed and the relationships between them are revealed.

3. The economic factors affecting the amount of profit are listed, a factor analysis of the profit before tax is carried out.

5. The analysis of the "quality" of profits, which is understood as "a generalized characteristic of the structure of the sources of formation of the organization's profit" The profit is of high quality, if the volume of production increases, the costs of production and sale are reduced, the low quality of profit means that there is an increase in prices for products without an increase in the volume of output and sales in physical terms. In addition, the quality of profit is characterized by:

the state of settlements with creditors, the less overdue accounts payable, the higher the quality of profit;
the level of profitability of sales;
profit sufficiency ratio;
the structure of profitability by product.

6. The cash flows of the organization are considered in order to find out the degree of sufficiency of cash receipts from current activities to ensure outflows from the current and investment activities of the enterprise. It is proposed to link the analysis of financial results with the analysis of cash flows.

7. The analysis of financial results on the financial statements of the enterprise is carried out, that is, their level, dynamics (horizontal analysis of the income statement) and structure (vertical analysis) are studied.

8. The scheme of factor analysis of the total accounting profit (profit before taxation) and profit from the sale of products is proposed.

9. The change in profit from the sale of products is influenced by factors of two groups. The first group includes: a change in the volume of sales of products assessed at the basic or planned cost, a change in the volume of products due to changes in the structure of products. The second group of factors is represented by savings from reducing the cost of production, savings from reducing the cost of production due to structural shifts, changes in costs due to the dynamics of prices for materials and tariffs for services, changes in prices per ruble of products.

The disadvantage of this technique is that when disclosing the composition of factors affecting the change in profit, a methodological error was made, which consists in the fact that it is recommended to take into account the influence of the same factor on the change in profit twice, namely, a structural shift in the range of products is taken into account simultaneously in two groups of factors. It can be noted that the proposed classification of factors and its division into two groups raises a question.

10. Then it is recommended to analyze the use of profit on the basis of the income statement, considering the main areas of use of net profit. The author proposes, in the course of vertical and horizontal analysis of the use of net profit, to calculate the capitalization ratio, the rate of sustainable growth of equity capital, the coefficient of profit consumption. At the same time, the profit capitalization ratio means the share in the total net profit of funds allocated to reserve funds and the accumulation fund, and the consumption coefficient means the share of funds from net profit allocated to consumption (consumption fund, social fund, dividends, charitable and other purposes) in the total amount of net profit. The rate of sustainable growth of equity capital is the ratio between the difference between net and consumed profit and the value of equity capital on average for the analyzed period.

11. Considerations are expressed that the final stage of the analysis of financial results should be a profitability analysis, within which profitability indicators should be determined, a definition of economic and financial profitability is given with consideration of the effect financial leverage, an analysis of the profitability of assets, equity capital, profitability of products and production assets is carried out.

Summarizing what has been said, it can be noted that the methodological approach to the content of the economic analysis of the financial results of the enterprise should be as follows:

The analysis of financial results should be carried out observing the logic of movement from the general to the particular and, further, to determine the influence of the particular on the general. In other words, first, the generalizing indicators of financial results in their dynamics are analyzed, then their structure is studied, the change in the analyzed period is determined in relation to the base period or to the business plan; identifies the factors, the action of which led to changes, indicators, with the help of which it is possible to quantify the influence of factors on the change in financial results.

Detailed analysis of financial results based on an in-depth study of particular indicators and identification of reserves for profit growth

Following this logic of analysis, first of all, the formation of profit is studied, that is, the mass, dynamics and structure of the aggregate (total accounting) profit of the enterprise with the identification of the factors of its change and potential reserves.

Then the following are analyzed:

components of total profit, which are profit from sales and profit from other activities (operating and non-operating profit);
profit in the context of the release of specific types of products, specific contracts with customers;
profit from other activities in the context of individual operations and transactions;
profitability (profitability) of activities, in particular, profitability of sales, which characterizes the amount of profit per ruble of sales proceeds.

The next area is the analysis of sales profit as part of marginal income with the allocation of conditionally fixed and conditionally variable costs in the whole enterprise and at the level of a specific product. And, finally, a limiting analysis or analysis of the incremental values of proceeds and costs is carried out in order to determine the volume of production (sales), which corresponds to the possibility of the enterprise getting the maximum amount of profit from sales.

The indicators used for the analysis are estimated at baseline, planned and actual prices, taking into account the effect of inflation, risk factors and uncertainties in making a profit.

Calculations of changes in financial results are carried out by direct counting and using various methods of economic analysis, the content of which is studied in his theory, which make it possible to reveal the system of particular changes under the influence of various factors and show its connection with changes in generalizing indicators.

At the same time, the sources of profit, the degree of stability of profit are being studied, and measures are being developed in order to realize reserves and forecast financial results.