Determination of the risks of project operations. Action plan for project risk management. Identification of project risks

The main and main reason why project risks arise is the uncertainty that accompanies each project. Some project risks may be known, these are those risks that have been identified, assessed and for which it is possible to develop a plan to manage these risks. But there are unknown project risks - these are risks that are not identified and cannot be assessed at the moment. Although specific risks and the conditions for their occurrence are often not identified, experienced project managers know that a fairly large part of the risks can be foreseen.

Carrying out projects with a high degree of uncertainty in areas such as goals and technologies to achieve them, many companies pay attention to the development and application corporate practices project risk management. These methods take into account both the specifics of projects and the specifics of corporate management methods.

The American Project Management Institute (PMI), which develops and publishes standards in the field of project management, has significantly revised the sections governing risk management procedures. The new version of PMBoK (expected to be adopted in 2000) describes six risk management procedures. In this article, we will take a quick look at risk management procedures.

Project Risk Management- these are the processes associated with the identification, analysis of risks and decision-making, which include maximizing the positive and minimizing the negative consequences of the occurrence of risk events. The project risk management process typically includes the following procedures:

• Risk management planning- selection of approaches and planning of project risk management activities.
• Risk identification- identifying risks that could affect the project and documenting their characteristics.
• - a qualitative analysis of risks and the conditions for their occurrence in order to determine their impact on the success of the project.
• Quantification- quantitative analysis of the likelihood and impact of the consequences of risks on the project.
• Risk response planning- determination of procedures and methods to mitigate the negative consequences of risk events and use the potential benefits.
• Monitoring and control of risks- risk monitoring, identification of remaining risks, implementation of the project risk management plan and assessment of the effectiveness of actions to minimize risks.

All of these procedures interact with each other as well as with other procedures. Each procedure is performed at least once in every project. Although the procedures presented here are considered discrete elements with well-defined characteristics, in practice they may overlap and interact.

Risk management planning

Risk management planning- the process of making decisions on the application and planning of risk management for a specific project. This process can include organizational decisions, staffing of project risk management procedures, selection of preferred methodology, data sources for risk identification, time frame for situation analysis. It is important to plan risk management appropriate to both the level and type of risk and the importance of the project to the organization.

Identification of project risks

Identification of project risks determines what risks can affect the project. It also documents the parameters of these risks. Risk identification will be ineffective if it is not done regularly. The most important condition for successful work with risks is their constant identification, otherwise, the project manager risks missing important risks, which, in turn, can lead to the collapse of the entire project.

That is why the project manager, in order to identify the risks of the project, should involve as many participants as possible: the project team, customers, users, independent experts.

Risk identification is an iterative process. Initially, risk identification can be done by a part of the project managers or by a group of risk analysts. Further identification can be handled by the core group of project managers. Independent specialists can participate in the final stage of the process to form an objective assessment. A possible response can be determined during the risk identification process.

Qualitative assessment of project risks

- the process of qualitative analysis of identified risks and identification of risks requiring special attention or rapid response. A qualitative risk assessment determines the degree of importance of the risk and chooses a response method. The availability of accompanying information makes it easier to prioritize different categories risks.

A qualitative risk assessment helps to identify the conditions under which individual project risks arise, as well as to assess the degree of risk impact on the project. Using this method helps to partially avoid the ambiguities that often occur in a project. Project risks need to be reassessed throughout the entire project lifecycle.

Figure 1 - Qualitative risk assessment

Quantitative assessment of project risks

A quantitative risk assessment is necessary to determine the likelihood of risks occurring, as well as the impact of the consequences of risks on the project. This process is very important because helps the project management team make the right decisions and avoid ambiguities.

A quantitative assessment of project risks allows you to determine:

• The likelihood of the project being successful;
• The impact of risk on the project and the amount of additional costs that are required to work with risks;
• Critical project risks requiring an urgent response from the project team;
• Additional costs of the entire project associated with work with risks, as well as a forecast of the timing of the completion of the project.

A quantitative risk assessment usually accompanies a qualitative risk assessment; moreover, both of these processes, for their effective use, require a risk identification process.

Quantitative and quantitative risk assessment can be used separately or together, it all depends on the experience of the project management team, the available budget and time.

Fig. 2 - Quantitative risk assessment

Project Risk Response Planning

Risk response planning is finding and developing ways to reduce or increase the impact of risks on a project. Those project risks that negatively affect the project, the project team strives to reduce to zero, and the project risks that positively affect the project result, the team strives to bring closer and increase.

Project risk response planning involves identifying and ranking each risk by category. The effectiveness of this process determines to what extent the consequences of exposure to risks on the project will be positive or negative.

The response planning strategy should be appropriate to the types of risks, resource availability and time costs. Usually, for each of the important risks, several variants of strategies for responding to project risks are developed.

Monitoring and control of project risks

Monitoring and control - determine the residual risks of the project, ensure the implementation of the risk plan and assess its effectiveness, taking into account the risk reduction. Risk indicators associated with the implementation of the conditions for the fulfillment of the plan are recorded. Project risk monitoring and control should be carried out throughout the project.

A well-established process of monitoring and controlling project risks helps to make effective decisions to prevent the emergence of new risks. The project manager must always remember that effective risk monitoring requires interaction between all project participants.

The purpose of monitoring and control is:

• How well the project risk response is applied;
• Identification of changes in risks compared to the previous period;
• Revealing the onset of risks;
• Confidence that all necessary risk response measures have been taken;
• The exposure to the risks was planned or an accidental result.

Figure 3 - Monitoring and control

Monitoring and control may entail the development of alternative strategies, the adoption of adjustments, or rescheduling of the entire project to successful implementation project.

Andrius Kutis

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A year before the 2008 economic crisis, a Russian financial magazine, together with a corporate finance management company, held a business plan competition. After statistical processing of the submitted works, it turned out that the most vulnerable part of them was the analysis project risks... This oversight made it possible for investment errors to occur, which entailed significant potential losses. In most of the competitive business plans, there was an indication of the existence of potential hazards in the implementation of the project, however, a risk analysis and assessment was not carried out.

There are no risk-free projects. An increase in project complexity always increases the scale and number of associated risks in direct proportion. However, assessing the risks of project implementation is, albeit an obligatory, but an intermediate process, the result of which is a clear plan to reduce the degree of risk and a response plan in the event of a potential threat.

It is customary to understand opportunity - the likelihood of adverse situations that potentially lead to a deterioration in the final and intermediate indicators. In this case, the event itself can have a different degree of uncertainty and various reasons.

Risk management includes not only a statement of uncertainty and analysis of project risks, but also a set of methods for influencing risk factors to neutralize damage. Methods that are combined into a planning, tracking (monitoring) and correction (correction) system include:

• Development of a risk management strategy.
• Compensation methods, which include monitoring the external socio-economic and legal environment in order to predict it, as well as the formation of a system of project reserves.
• Localization techniques that are used in high-risk projects in a multi-project system. Such localization involves the creation of special units that are involved in the implementation of particularly risky projects.
• Distribution methods using different parameters (time, composition of participants, etc.).
• Methods for avoiding risks associated with replacing unreliable partners, introducing a guarantor into the process, risk insurance. Sometimes risk aversion means abandoning the project.

Undefined events that occur are not always accompanied by a negative effect. For example, leaving a team member from a project may result in a more skilled and efficient employee on the project. However, uncertain events with a positive (and “zero”) effect are not always taken as a subject of consideration when assessing the risk of a project. The nature of uncertainty is associated with incurring losses due to internal and external circumstances.

The design specificity is also determined by the dynamism of the risk map with a change in risk as the transition from one design task to another:

• In the early stages of a project, there is a high likelihood of threats with a low level of potential losses.
• On final stages the risk of threats being implemented decreases, but the magnitude of potential losses increases.

Taking this into account, it is advisable to carry out the analysis of project risks repeatedly, transforming the risk map as necessary. At the same time, this process is of particular importance at the stage of forming a concept and carrying out design work - creating project documentation... For example, if an error in the choice of material is discovered in the early stages, this will lead to a delay in the deadline. If this error is discovered during execution, the damage will be much more significant.

Risk assessment by the project team and investors is based on the importance of the project, its specifics, the availability of sufficient resources to implement and finance the likely consequences of the risk manifestation. The degree of acceptable risk values ​​depends on the planned level of profitability, the volume and reliability of investments, the familiarity of the project for the company, the complexity of the business model, and other factors.

The sequence of measures for assessing and managing project risks fits into a specific management concept, which includes a number of mandatory elements.

Project Risk Management Concept: Key Elements

Until recently, the norm in risk management methodology was passive. In its modern presentation, this methodology provides for active work with sources of threats and the consequences of detected risks. Risk management is interconnected processes, and it is not only the behavior of each stage that matters, but also their sequence. In general, this project management subsystem has the following structure:

• Identification of risks and their identification.
• Analysis of project risks and their assessment.
• Choice effective methods consistent with the risks.
• Application of these methods in a risky situation and responding directly to the event.
• Development of measures to reduce risks.
• Decrease control and decision making.

Since today in project management most managers are guided by the format proposed by the PMBOK framework, it is more expedient to take a closer look at the 6 risk management processes that are proposed in the PMBOK:

1. Risk management planning.
2. Identification of factors influencing risks. At the same stage, their parameters are documented.
3. Qualitative assessment.
4. Quantitative assessment.
5. Response planning.
6. Monitoring and control.

After that, the cycle resumes again from the 2nd to the 6th point, since during the course of the project the context of the project's existence may change.

Project risks are managed by the project manager, but all project participants are involved to some extent in solving this problem (for example, during brainstorming, discussion, making expert assessments and etc.). This is also important because the information context involves the identification of not only external risks (economic, political, legal, technological, environmental, etc.), but also internal ones.

In the future, to illustrate the implementation of the main elements of the control concept, examples from the project will be given, which have the following conditional characteristics. The jewelry factory, which introduces new gold chains to the market, purchases imported equipment for their production, installed in premises that have yet to be built. The price of gold as the main raw material is established based on the results of trading on the London Metal Exchange in US dollars. The planned sales volume is 15 kg of products per month, of which 4.5 kg (30%) are supposed to be sold through our own chain of stores, and 10.5 kg (70%) - through dealers. The sale is subject to seasonal changes with activation in December and fading in April. The optimal period for launching the equipment is the eve of the December peak in sales. The project implementation period is five years. The main indicator of the project's efficiency is NPV (net present value), which in the estimated plans is $ 1765.

Risk management planning

An introductory process in the list of procedures for dealing with design basis hazards is risk management planning. Since the same PMBOK is a framework, and it does not provide recommendations for working with a specific project, at this stage, methods and tools are specified that are appropriate to apply in a real starting project and in a real context. In expanded form, the risk management plan contains the following sections as a document:

In the recommendations of the PMI Institute, this stage is necessary for the communication of all interested parties. At the same time, the company may already have established and proven risk management techniques, which, due to their familiarity, are preferable.

Identification of risk factors and the main types of project risks

The whole variety of uncertain events that can become risk factors is rather difficult to bring together and describe, so everyone and everything is involved for this. That is, not only the project manager and the team participate in the process of identifying factors, but also customers, sponsors, investors, users, specially invited experts.

Moreover, identification is an iterative (repeated throughout the entire life cycle) and combined with continuous analysis process. During the course of the project, new risks are often discovered or information about them is updated. Therefore, the composition of the expert commission may vary depending on the specific iteration, the characteristics of which, in turn, change depending on the specific risk situation and the type of threat. These types of risks can be classified according to different criteria, but the most practical are the criteria for controllability, sources of risk, its consequences, and ways to reduce threats.

Not all threats are controlled, and some are also poorly classified as definitely controlled. Under a number of definitely uncontrollable factors, it is advisable to allocate resource reserves in advance.

In general, external risks are less well controlled than internal ones, and predictable ones are better than unpredictable ones:

• Certainly uncontrollable external risks include government intervention, natural phenomena and natural disasters, and deliberate sabotage.
• External predictable, but poorly controlled - social, marketing, inflationary and currency.
• Partially controlled internal - risks associated with the organization of the project, the availability of funding and other resources.
• Controlled - internal technical risks (associated with technologies) and contractual legal (patent, license, etc.).

The threat source criterion is especially important at the initial stages of identification. Criteria for the consequences and methods of eliminating threats - at the stage of factor analysis. At the same time, it is important not only to identify, but also to correctly formulate the risk factor, so as not to confuse the source of risk with its consequences. Therefore, the very formulation of risk should be two-part: “source of risk + threatening event”.

To classify by risk sources, correct standardized pairs are compiled:

• Technical factors - emergency situations and erroneous forecast as a type of risk.
• Financial factors - unstable currency correlations.
• Political - coups and revolutions, religious and cultural threats.
• Social - strikes, terrorist threats.
• Environmental - man-made disasters, etc.

But below, using the already mentioned example, not all are considered, but only the main types of controlled or partially controlled project risks.

Marketing Risk

This threat is associated with a loss of profit, which is caused by a decrease in the commodity price or sales volume due to the rejection of a new product by the consumer or an overestimation of the real sales volume. For investment projects, this risk is of particular importance.

The risk is called marketing risk, as it often arises from the flaws of marketers:

• insufficient study of consumer preferences,
• incorrect positioning of goods,
• errors in assessing market competitiveness,
• incorrect pricing,
• the wrong way to promote the product, etc.

In the example of the sale of gold chains, an error in the planned distribution of sales in the ratio of 30% to 70% leads to the fact that the sale of the product through dealers in 80% of cases reduces the amount of profit received, since dealers purchase goods from a supplier at lower prices than retail consumer. An external factor in this example may be a situation in which the activity of visiting new stores in shopping centers depends on the "promotion" and popularity of the shopping centers... The ways to reduce the risk in this situation will be a detailed preliminary analysis and a lease agreement with the introduction of a number of popularizing parameters: a convenient parking lot, a transport communication system, additional entertainment centers on the territory, etc.

General economic risks

Poorly controlled external risks associated with changes in the exchange rate, inflationary processes, an increase in the number of industry competitors, etc. pose a threat not only to the current project, but also to the company as a whole. In the case of the described example, the main of this group is the currency risk. If the final price of the product in rubles for the consumer does not change, but the purchase is made in dollars, then with an increase in the dollar exchange rate, there is an actual shortfall in profit in relation to the calculated values. Potentially, a situation is possible when, after the sale of the chain in rubles and the transfer of funds into dollars, for which the gold is purchased, the actual amount of proceeds will be less than the amount required at least to renew the mass of commodities.

Risks associated with project management

These are not only threats associated with managerial errors, but also external risks, the reasons for which may be, for example, changes in customs legislation and cargo delays. Violation of the project schedule increases the payback period and lengthening the calendar period, and lost profit. In the example with gold chains, the delay is especially dangerous, since the product has a pronounced seasonality - after peak December it will be much more difficult to sell gold jewelry. This also includes the risk of budget increases.

In the practice of project management, there are simple ways to determine the real line (and cost) of a project. For example, PERT analysis, in which three terms (or costs) are set: optimistic (X), pessimistic (Y), and most realistic (Z). The expected values ​​are entered into the formula: (X + 4x Z + Y) / 6 = planned date (or cost). In this scheme, the coefficients (4 and 6) are the result of a large array of statistical data, but this proven formula also works only if all three estimates can be correctly substantiated.

In cooperation with external contractors, special conditions are negotiated to minimize risks. So, in the example with starting a new jewelry line it is necessary to build new buildings, the cost of which is determined at 500 thousand dollars, after which it is planned to receive a total profit of 120 thousand dollars per month with a profitability of 25%. If, through the fault of the contractor, there is a delay for a month, then the lost profit is easily calculated (120x25% = 30 thousand) and can be entered into the contract as compensation for the failure to meet the deadline. This compensation can be "tied" to the cost of construction. Then 30 thousand dollars will be 6% of the cost of work in 500 thousand.

The result of all this stage should be a hierarchical (ranked according to the degree of danger and magnitude) list of risks.

That is, the description should provide a way to compare the relative impact on project progress of all identified risks. Identification is made on the basis of the totality of all studies and risk factors identified on their basis.

The project risk analysis transforms the information gathered during identification into guidance that allows you to make responsible decisions even at the planning stage. In some cases, a qualitative analysis is sufficient. The result of this analysis should be a description of the uncertainties (and their causes) inherent in the project. To facilitate the procedure for identifying risks, special logical maps are used for analysis:

• In a group " Market and consumers»Collects questions about the presence of unsatisfied consumer needs, market trends and whether the market will develop at all.
• In a group " Competitors»The ability of competitors to influence the situation is assessed.
• In a group " Company capabilities»Asks questions about marketing and sales competence, etc.

As a result of collecting answers, potential risks are identified associated with failure to achieve the sales plan due to:

• incorrect assessment of consumer needs and market size,
• lack of a sufficient product promotion system,
• underestimating the capabilities of competitors.

As a result, a ranked list of risks is formed with a hierarchy according to the importance of threats and the magnitude of potential losses. So in the example with jewelry, the main risk group included, in addition to not reaching the number of sales and reducing the financial volume due to a lower price, a decrease in the rate of return due to an increase in prices for raw materials (gold).

Quantitative risk analysis

Quantitative analysis is used to determine how the most significant risk factors can affect project performance. For example, it is analyzed whether a small (10-50%) change in sales volume will entail significant loss of profit, making the project unprofitable, or the project will remain profitable even if sold, for example, only half of the planned sales volume. There are a number of techniques for quantitative analysis.

Sensitivity analysis

This standard method consists in the substitution of various hypothetical values ​​of the critical parameters into the financial model of the project and their subsequent calculation. In the example of launching a jewelry line, the critical parameters are the physical volume of sales, cost and selling price. It is assumed that these parameters will decrease by 10-50% and increase by 10-40%. After that, the "threshold" is calculated mathematically, beyond which the project will not pay off.

The degree of influence of critical factors on the final efficiency can be demonstrated on a graph that reflects the primary influence on the result of the selling price, then - the cost of production, and then - the physical volume of sales.

But the significance of the price change factor does not yet indicate the significance of the risk, since the probability of price fluctuations may be low. In order to determine this probability, a "probability tree" is formed step by step:

The total efficiency risk (NPV) is the sum of the products of the total probability and the value of the risk value for each deviation. The risk of changes in the sale price reduces the NPV of the project from the example by 6.63 thousand dollars: 1700 x 3% + 1123 x 9% + 559 x 18% - 550 x 18% - 1092 x 9% - 1626 x 3%. But after recalculating two other critical factors, it turned out that the most dangerous threat should be considered the risk of a decrease in the physical volume of sales (its expected value was 202 thousand dollars). The second most dangerous risk in the example was taken by the risk of changes in the cost price with an expected value of 123 thousand dollars.

This analysis allows you to simultaneously measure the magnitude of the risk of several critical factors. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, 2-3 factors are selected, which more than others have an impact on the result of the project. Then, as a rule, 3 development scenarios are considered:

Here, too, relying on expert substantiated assessments, the probability of its implementation is determined for each scenario. Numerical data for each scenario is substituted into the real financial model of the project, resulting in one comprehensive performance assessment. In the jewelry project example, the expected NPV is $ 1,572,000 (-1637 x 20% + 3390 x 30% + 1765 x 50%).

Simulation modeling (Monte Carlo method)

In cases where experts can name not accurate estimates of the parameters, but the estimated oscillation intervals, the Monte Carlo method is used. It is more often used in assessing currency risks (throughout the year), macroeconomic threats, risks of fluctuations in interest rates, etc. Calculations must simulate random market processes, therefore, special software or Excel functionality is used for analysis.

The application of the statistical rule of "three sigma" suggests that with a probability of 99.7% NPV will fall into the range of 1,725 ​​thousand dollars ± (3 x 142), that is, with a high probability, the project result in the example will be positive.

Anti-Risk Measures: Planning a Response

The result of the risk analysis can be a risk map with visualization of the ratio of probability and degree of impact on indicators. It facilitates the regulated planning of threat minimization.

The four main types of response include:

1. Acceptance, which presupposes a conscious willingness to take risks with a shift in efforts not to prevent, but to eliminate the consequences.
2. Minimization that works for controlled risks.
3. Transfer-insurance, when there is a third party willing to accept the risk and its consequences.
4. Avoidance, in which it is assumed that the sources of risk occurrence are completely eliminated. A passive and irrational form of avoidance is considered to be the rejection of certain elements of the project.

Modern software tools are designed for different levels of project management. For large company with a large project portfolio, risk management automation tools are often incorporated directly into an integrated ERP-class package. For small and medium-sized businesses, the latest versions of MS Project are suitable, where it is possible to configure the risk management unit for the processes of identification, classification, as well as assessment and qualitative analysis of risks with the construction of a probability matrix. Simulation modeling can be carried out using Project programs Expert, Alt-Invest.

Projects are carried out in conditions of uncertainty.

Under uncertainty means the incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the prerequisites, conditions or consequences of the project, including the associated costs and results.

Its reasons can be: ignorance, chance and opposition.

Uncertainty leads to risks and consequences.

Risk(as the dictionary defines it) is the possibility or likelihood of a hazard, loss, or other adverse effect.

The PMVOK project management standard and other standards give slightly different definitions.

The risk is:

- an undefined event or condition that, if it occurs, positively or negatively affects the project;

- a combination of the likelihood (qualitative or quantitative) that the project will experience undesirable events, such as cost overruns, scheduling delays, security failures, or failure to achieve the required technological breakthrough;

- consequences (impacts or problems) if an undesirable event occurs;

- the possibility of creating a loss.

The main characteristics of the risk are as follows:

♦ the risk is situational (there is no consensus on how to reduce the risk or avoid it);

♦ risks are interrelated (one risk event may lead to others);

♦ the degree of risk is relative (the more significant the final result, the greater the risk is acceptable);

♦ the significance of the risk is subjective:

a) individual attitude to risk;

b) attitude to risk on corporate level;

♦ risk is a function of time (risk always refers to the future time), time influences the risk assessment;

♦ the risk can be controlled.

There are two types of risk - static and dynamic. Static risk corresponds to "pure" uncertainty, therefore it is called "pure risk", and dynamic risk- "speculative uncertainty" and has another name "speculative risk".

Frequency is the probability of irreversible loss of assets due to irreparable damage to an economic entity caused by unforeseen changes in numerous factors internal environment... The speculative rate is associated with the occurrence of unforeseen changes in the value of the object under consideration under the influence of environmental factors, as well as inadequate management decisions.

The risk area is distinguished:

♦ project risks: factors that can lead to the failure of the project;

♦ business risks: the impact on the organization if the project fails.

Project management implies not only the statement of the presence of uncertainty, risk, their analysis, but also risk management.

Project Risk Management- a set of methods for analyzing and neutralizing risk factors, including processes that ensure the identification, analysis, planning of risks, development of responses and control throughout the entire life cycle of the project.

The objectives of project risk management are to increase the likelihood and impact of positive events and reduce the likelihood and impact of negative events on the results and objectives of the project.

The main stages of the risk management process are shown in Fig. 5.5.

Rice. 5.5 Steps in the risk management process

Let's consider in more detail the stages of the risk management process.

1. In progress risk management planning a uniform approach to risk management is developed and recorded for the entire team.

Risk management plan should describe the procedures that will be used to manage risk during project execution.

In addition to documenting the results of the risk identification processes, the plan should cover:

- responsibility for management in various areas of risk;

- procedures for monitoring project risks;

- the distribution of the probability and impact of risks over the life cycle of the project;

- strategy of "containment" of risks;

- costs of the strategy;

- schedule of events.

Risk management plan can be formal or informal, detailed or general according to the needs of the project, i.e. this plan is part of the overall project plan.

Thus, the result of the process is risk management plan, which does not yet list specific risks and actions to manage them, but only stipulates the rules that will be applied in the rest of the risk management processes.

2. Purpose of the process identification of risks - identify risks , which may affect the project, and document their characteristics.

As a result, a register of risks appears, which is not only a listing of risks, but also additional information on them (on the magnitude of the risk, risk owners, possible response measures, etc.).

The composition of the parameters characterizing the risk and reflected in the register is determined in the Risk Management Plan.

Risk identification- not a one-time action, it must be done periodically during the project.

There are various methods and tools for identifying project risks:

Review and analysis of all existing documentation;

Collecting additional data;

Brainstorm;

Interviewing based on a (un) standard questionnaire;

SWOT analysis;

Graphical methods - for example, "Ishikawa diagram".

As a result of the process risk identification project team should get:

List of risks;

List of alarms ("triggers").

3. The process is applied to prioritize the identified risks. qualitative risk analysis .

The list of risks, grouped by priority, is used further for quantitative risk analysis and for identifying risks requiring the development of a response plan.

The result of the entire risk management process is a risk register, which is supplemented with data from a qualitative risk analysis.

A qualitative risk analysis should ultimately lead to the following results (Figure 5.6).

Rice. 5.6 The ratio of the levels of expected profit and risk of the project

4. Quantitative analysis considers risks that, in the process of a qualitative risk analysis, were qualified as potentially or at the moment significantly influencing to achieve the goals of the project.

Quantitative risk analysis is performed:

· To determine the possible options for the completion of the project and the degree of their likelihood;

· Assessing the likelihood of achieving specific project objectives;

Identification of risks requiring most attention, by quantifying their relative contribution to the overall risk of the project;

· Defining realistic and achievable goals for cost, schedule or content, taking into account the risks of the project;

· Determining the best solution for project management in a situation where some conditions or outputs were left undefined.

5. After assessing the importance of the risks, it is necessary to develop response methods on them. One of the methods is risk response planning Its purpose is to develop measures to be taken to increase the likelihood and impact of positive risks on the project and reduce the likelihood and impact of negative risks on the project.

The main result is a register of risks, complemented by the selected ways of responding to risks.

For each risk, a responsible person is appointed who will carry out the planned activities.

Control over the implementation of the risk response plan and assessment of its effectiveness should be carried out throughout the life cycle of the project.

6. Risk monitoring and control (control) after them .

After choosing a response method, it is important to control its implementation through monitoring, as well as track the emergence of new risks. If a risk occurs, the project team must identify this event and apply the planned impact... Risk management strategies are developed to reduce or prevent risks.

Risk management strategies:

risk aversion - this is the choice of such a design solution from possible alternatives, which almost completely excludes the occurrence of a risk event. This strategy includes actions to change technical solutions or an alternative way of implementing the project that does not have this risk;

transfer of risk. Risks are transferred to another party (usually for a fee). They are reflected in the contract documentation (for assigning risk-related liability to the customer or another party involved in the project) or transferred to a third party not involved in the project (insurance);

risk reduction (reduction of impact and / or consequences). To reduce the risk, measures are taken to reduce the likelihood and / or unpleasant consequences from the occurrence of a risk event to an acceptable level. Such activities include drawing up alternative work plans, additional testing, duplicating suppliers, inviting experts, additional training for project participants, etc.;

risk taking - this is the recognition of the existence of risk and the rejection of active countermeasures due to their impossibility or inexpediency. The adoption of this strategy implies in the future only monitoring the situation for the timely detection of changes in the threat level (based on "triggers"). When choosing this strategy, it is necessary to prepare an "RE-active plan".

Risk - "underwater rock" (Spanish-Portuguese), which is associated with the expression "maneuver between the rocks", i.e. to be in danger. Different sources can find different definitions of risk:

Risk is a potential, numerically measurable possibility of adverse situations and associated consequences in the form of any damage.

Risk is the degree of danger of being exposed to negative events and their possible consequences.

Project risks are the possibility of adverse situations and consequences associated with damage caused during the implementation of the project.

Elements of risk:

• § Risk event - an accurate description of what can damage the project, fixing the features of an adverse event.
• § Probability of risk manifestation - the degree of probability of the occurrence of a risk event.
• § Rate value - the value of possible consequences, the amount of possible damage.

Projects always exist in conditions of uncertainty. Uncertainty is a set of unknown parameters of the future, the lack of exact knowledge about probable events, which can be both favorable and unfavorable.

The reasons for uncertainty can be a lack of information, the presence of an element of chance, the presence of opposition. Risk response, risk management are individual and necessarily reflect personal qualities project manager.

The perception of risks bears the stamp of the personality of the project manager, his managerial style (Table 17).

Table 17 Risk perception by managers

Risk management planning is the process of defining the approach and planning of risk management activities for a project. Planning risk management processes allows ensuring the proportionality of the level, type, transparency of risk management and the importance of the project for the organization, as well as allocating sufficient time and resources to minimize risks (MPI PMBOK 2004. Russian edition. P.242).

The risk management plan describes how all risk management processes are carried out. The risk management plan may include:

• § methodology of risk management;
• § the roles and responsibilities of those involved in risk management;
• § risk management budget;
• § determination of the frequency of risk management procedures;
• § threshold criteria for recognizing the onset of risk;
• § categories of risks;
• § matrix of probability and impact of risks;
• § formats and templates of reports.

Risk identification involves identifying risks that may affect the project and documenting their characteristics. If necessary, the risk identification operations may include: the project manager, team members, the risk management team (if one is established), experts in certain areas outside the project team, customers, end users, other project managers, project participants, and experts on risk management (PMI PMBOK 2004. Russian edition. P.246).

Risk identification is the identification and classification of risk events for the project and types of losses (damage) from the occurrence of these risk events (Fig. 28). The output document is a register of risks.

Risk register - a list of identified risks or conditions for the occurrence of risk events.

Risk identification methods and means:

• § analysis of documents;
• § SWOT - analysis;
• § brainstorm;
• § expert survey. Delphi method;
• § control tables;
• § questionnaires;
• § diagrams.

Rice. 28

Let's consider these risks in more detail.

Intra-project risks of a non-technical nature

• 1. Marketing risks:
  • § wrong choice of product markets;
  • § incorrect definition strategic operations on the market;
  • § inaccurate calculation of market capacity;
  • § incorrect determination of production capacity.
• 2. Risks of the project participants:
  • § delay, disruption in the supply of raw materials, building materials;
  • § change of potential customers of the project;
  • § failure to meet the deadlines for design work by a subcontractor;
  • § non-fulfillment of obligations by creditors;
  • § unqualified personnel;
  • § risk of embezzlement or waste;
  • § risk of damage to business reputation;
  • § risk of accidents;
  • § the risk of staff turnover.
• 3. Organizational and managerial risks (risk of project unmanageability):
  • § design errors;
  • § incorrect organization of work on the project;
  • § lack of coordination of work;
  • § change of management;
  • § weak management;
  • § improper project planning;
  • § errors in design and estimate documentation.
• 4. Financial risks:
  • § interest rate risk - an unplanned change in the interest rate when concluding long-term loan agreements;
  • § credit risk - inability to fulfill the loan agreement due to financial collapse;
  • § foreign exchange risk - the risk of potential losses due to changes in foreign exchange rates.
• 5. Commercial risks (risks of product sales):
  • § ill-conceivedness, lack of organization, lack of a sales network;
  • § delay in entering the market;
  • § impossibility to sell products in the required value terms and on schedule;
  • § unpredictability of changes in the purchase price of goods;
  • § growth of distribution costs;
  • § loss of goods during storage and transportation.
• 6. Specific risks - rare project risks, most often inherent in this particular project (for example, nuclear risk in the design or reconstruction of nuclear power plants).

Production (technical and technological risks)

• 1. Disruption of the work schedule.
• 2. Risk of non-performance of work.
• 3. Failure to reach design capacity.
• 4. Manufacturing defects.
• 5. Interruptions in fuel and equipment.
• 6. Deterioration of equipment.
• 7. Release of low quality products.
• 8. Lack of labor.
• 9. Disadvantages of technology, wrong choice of equipment.
• 10. Increase in the cost of equipment.

11. Growth in wage costs.

Legal risks

• 1. Errors in licenses.
• 2. Non-compliance with patent law.
• 3. Non-performance of contracts.
• 4. The emergence of litigation with external partners.
• 5. Domestic litigation.

Outwardly predictable, but not completely certain

• 1. Market.
• 2. Entrepreneurial.
• § risk of reduced profitability;
• § risk of loss financial sustainability and liquidity.

External unpredictable

• 1. Macroeconomic.
• 2. Environmental.

Risk response planning is the process of developing risk response methods to increase the beneficial and reduce the adverse consequences of the risk (Table 22).

The final document is the Risk Response Plan.

Table 20

A risk response plan may include:

• § identified risks, their descriptions, project area affected by them (WBS element);
• § results of qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, including a list of priority risks and probabilistic analysis of the project;
• § strategies and methods for responding to risks;
• § actions to implement methods of response;
• § the level of risk after the implementation of these actions;
• § budget and work schedule required to minimize risks;
• § contingency reserves in terms of time and cost to ensure stakeholder tolerance to risks;
• § contingency plan;
• § plans for lagging to be used as a response to the emerging risk;
• § residual risks that may persist after the response, as well as deliberately accepted risks;
• § secondary risks arising from the response to the primary risk;
• § emergency reserves formed as a result of the quantitative analysis of the project.

Diversification is the distribution of risks between project participants. Risk sharing is effective way their reduction. It is more logical to make the project participant responsible for a specific risk who has the ability to more accurately and better calculate and control this risk. Risk allocation is formalized when developing a project management plan, financial plan and contract documents. It should be borne in mind that an increase in risks for one of the project participants should be accompanied by an adequate change in the distribution of project revenues. Therefore, when negotiating, it is necessary:

• § to determine the possibilities of the project participants to prevent the consequences of the occurrence of risk events;
• § determine the degree of responsibility for the risk that each participant in the project assumes;
• § agree on an acceptable risk reward.

Reservation - creating a reserve fund financial resources to cover unforeseen expenses. Foreign project experience allows an increase in the cost of the project from 7 to 12% due to the reservation of funds for force majeure. Russian experts admit an increase in the cost of the project up to 20%.

Reserving always increases project costs, but it also increases project profit. Part of the reserve should be at the disposal of the project manager, the rest is managed in accordance with the contract by other project participants.

Reserving funds provides for establishing a balance between the potential risks that change the cost of the project and the amount of costs associated with overcoming violations during its implementation. When calculating risks, it is necessary that the balance of accumulated real money in the financial plan of the project at each step of the calculation should be at least 8% of the costs planned at this step.

Risk insurance - transfer of certain risks to an insurance company. Depending on the chosen method of risk management, various sources of risk financing differ:

• § funds accounted for in the cost of products;
• § own funds enterprises, including the authorized capital and reserves formed from profits;
• § external sources - loans, grants, loans;
• § insurance funds;
• § self-insurance funds.

The process of minimizing risks is carried out according to the following algorithm:

• § considers the risk that is of the greatest importance for the project;
• § the cost overrun is determined taking into account the likelihood of an adverse event;
• § a list of possible measures is determined to reduce the likelihood and danger of a risk event;
• § determined additional expenses for the implementation of the proposed activities;
• § the required costs for the implementation of the proposed measures are compared with a possible cost overrun due to the occurrence of a risk event;
• § a decision is made on the implementation or refusal of anti-risk measures;
• § The process of comparing the probability and consequences of risk events with the costs of measures to reduce them is repeated for the next most important risk.

Risk monitoring and management is the process of identifying, analyzing and planning emerging risks, tracking identified risks and those that are listed for ongoing monitoring, as well as checking and executing risk response operations and assessing their effectiveness. Risk monitoring and management uses a variety of techniques, such as trend and variance analysis, which require performance data collected during project execution. Monitoring and risk management is an ongoing process throughout the entire life cycle of a project (PMI PMBOK 2004. Russian edition. P.264).

Risk monitoring is the process of monitoring existing risks, identifying new risks, and implementing a risk response plan:

• § revision of risks;
• § risk audit;
• § analysis of deviations and trends;
• § technical measurement of performance;
• § analysis of reserves;
• § meetings on the current state.

Risk management is carried out at all phases of the project life cycle.

Stage 1. Pre-project feasibility study of investments, formulation of the project concept and its feasibility study. Risk analysis is carried out in the process of preliminary examination of the project. Required actions for this stage: identification and analysis of risks.

Stage 2. Project planning. Risk management is included in the development of the estimate and budget for the project. Necessary actions:

• § correction of the decision tree;
• § determination of the structure and volume of funds reservation;
• § taking into account risks in the financial plan of the project.

Stage 3. Implementation of the project. Risk management is carried out in the monitoring process. Necessary actions:

• § formation of the working budget of the project;
• § risk insurance;
• § control over the use of funds for unforeseen expenses;
• § budget adjustments.

Stage 4. Completion of the project. Risk management is carried out at the stage of the final examination of the project. Necessary actions:

• § analysis of the use of funds for unforeseen expenses;
• § analysis and generalization of the actual manifestations of risks and uncertainties based on the results of the project.

Project Risk Management

1. Concept and essence of project risks

When analyzing production investments, the problem of uncertainty of costs, returns, measurement of risk and its impact on investment results arises. It is necessary to distinguish between the concepts of "risk" and "uncertainty".

Uncertainty assumes the presence of factors in which the results of an action are not deterministic, and the degree of possible influence of these factors on the results is unknown; it is the incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the conditions for the implementation of the project. Uncertainties are classified as external and internal. External factors - legislation, market reaction to manufactured products, actions of competitors; internal - the competence of the personnel of the enterprise, the erroneous definition of the characteristics of the project, etc.

Risk is a potential, numerically measurable opportunity for loss. Project risk is the degree of risk to the successful implementation of the project. The concept of risk characterizes the uncertainty associated with the possibility of adverse situations and consequences arising during the implementation of the project, while the cases of objective and subjective probabilities are distinguished.

You should also not confuse the concepts of "uncertainty" and "randomness". The concept of "randomness" is narrower, it is used when there are large statistics and for each of the possible combinations of costs and results of the project, the probabilities of their implementation are determined. The concept of "uncertainty" is broader, in addition to "probabilistic", there may be other types of uncertainty. Risk occurs when an action can lead to several mutually exclusive outcomes with a known distribution of their probabilities. If such a distribution is unknown, then the corresponding situation is considered as uncertainty.

Uncertainty is not the absence of any information about the conditions for the implementation of the project, but the incompleteness and inaccuracy of the available information. Uncertainties must be taken into account when preparing the initial information for the development of the project, when assessing the results of its implementation, when adjusting the implementation based on incoming new information.

The basis of the risk of real investment of an enterprise is formed by the so-called project risks, i.e. risks associated with the implementation of real investment projects of the enterprise. In the system of indicators for evaluating such projects, the level of risk ranks third in importance, complementing such indicators as the volume of investment costs and the level of net investment profit (net cash flow).

The risk of a real investment project (project risk) is understood as the likelihood of adverse financial consequences in the form of loss of expected income in situations of uncertainty in its implementation.

The risk of a real investment project is one of the most complex concepts associated with the investment activities of an enterprise. This risk has the following main features:

Integrated character. The risk of a real investment project is a cumulative concept that integrates numerous types of specific investment risks. Only on the basis of an assessment of these specific types of risk can the aggregate level of risk of an investment project be determined.

Objectivity of manifestation. Project risk is an objective phenomenon in the functioning of any enterprise that makes real investment. It accompanies the implementation of almost all types of real investment projects, in whatever form they are carried out. Although a number of parameters of project risk depend on subjective management decisions reflected in the process of preparing specific real investment projects, its objective nature remains unchanged.

The difference in the specific structure at different stages of the implementation of a real investment project. Each stage of the process of implementing a real investment project, as a rule, has its own specific types of project risks. Therefore, the assessment of the aggregate level of project risk is usually carried out at individual stages of the investment process.

High level of communication with commercial risk. Investment income for a completed project is formed, as a rule, in the post-investment phase, i.e. during operating activities enterprises. Accordingly, the formation of a positive cash flow for the investment project occurs directly in the sphere of the commodity market, i.e. directly related to efficiency and risk commercial activities enterprises. This determines the high degree of interconnection of project risk with the commercial risk of the enterprise.

High dependence on the duration of the project life cycle, the time factor has a significant impact on the overall level of project risk, determining various uncertainties of the consequences. For short-term investment projects, the determinability of external and internal factors makes it possible to select the parameters of their implementation that generate the lowest level of risk. At the same time, for long-term investment projects, the non-determinism of many factors and, accordingly, the uncertainty of the results of their implementation increases. The dependence of the overall level of project risk on the duration of the project life cycle is direct.

High level of risk level variability for similar projects. The level of project risk inherent in the implementation of even the same type of real investment projects of the same enterprise is not constant. It varies significantly under the influence of numerous objective and subjective factors that are in constant dynamics. Therefore, each real investment project requires an individual assessment of the level of risk in the specific conditions of its implementation.

Lack of sufficient information base to assess the level of risk. The uniqueness of the parameters of each real investment project and the conditions for its implementation does not allow the company to generate a sufficient amount of information that allows the use of economic-statistical, analogue and some other methods for assessing the level of project risk in a wide range. The search for the necessary information to calculate this indicator is associated with the implementation of additional financial costs for the preparation and evaluation of alternative real investment projects.

Lack of reliable market indicators used to assess the level of risk. If in the process financial investment the enterprise can use a system of indicators stock market(such indicators have been developed in each country and their dynamics are reflected over a fairly long period), there are no such indicators for segments of the investment market associated with real investment. This reduces the ability to assess market factors in calculating the level of project risks.

The subjectivity of the assessment. Despite the objective nature of the project risk as economic phenomenon, its main estimated indicator - the level of risk - is subjective. This subjectivity, i.e. the unequal assessment of this objective phenomenon at specific enterprises is determined by the difference in the completeness and reliability of the information base used, the qualifications of investment managers, their experience in the field of risk management and other factors.

Thus, investments in any project are associated with a certain risk, which is reflected in the value of the interest rate: the project may fail, i.e. be unfulfilled, ineffective, or less effective than expected. The risk is associated with the fact that the income from the project is a random rather than a deterministic value (i.e., unknown at the time of making a decision to invest), as well as the amount of losses. When analyzing an investment project, one should take into account risk factors, identify as many types of risk as possible and try to minimize the overall risk of the project.

2. Classification of project risks

1.Negative (loss, damage, loss).

2. Zero.

.Positive (gain, benefit, profit).

Depending on the event, risks can be divided into two large groups: pure and speculative. Net risks mean getting negative or zero result... Speculative risks mean both positive and negative outcomes.

Risks accompanying investment activities form an extensive portfolio of enterprise risks, which is determined by general concept - investment risk... It seems possible to propose the following classification of investment risks (Fig. 1.):

Figure 1. - Classification of investment risks

The subject of the analysis of this work is the investment project risk (the risk associated with the implementation of a real investment project) associated with investing in innovative activities, which can be defined as the likelihood of adverse financial consequences in the form of loss of all or part of the expected investment income from the implementation of a specific innovative project in a situation of uncertainty of the conditions for its implementation.

The project risks of the enterprise are characterized by a great variety and, in order to effectively manage them, are classified according to the following main features:

By types. This classification feature of project risks is the main parameter of their differentiation in the management process. The characteristic of a specific type of risk at the same time gives an idea of ​​the factor that generates it, which makes it possible to "tie" the assessment of the degree of probability of occurrence and possible financial losses by this kind project risk to the dynamics of the corresponding factor. The species diversity of project risks in their classification system is presented in the widest range. It should be noted that the emergence of new design and construction technologies, the use of new investment goods and other innovative factors will, accordingly, generate new types of project risks. V modern conditions the main types of project risks include the following:

· The risk of a decrease in financial stability (or the risk of imbalance financial development) of the enterprise. This risk is generated by the imperfection of the structure of the invested capital (an excessive share of borrowed funds used), which generates an imbalance in the positive and negative cash flows of the enterprise for the projects being implemented. In the composition of project risks in terms of the degree of danger (generating a threat of bankruptcy of the enterprise), this type of risk plays a leading role.

· The risk of insolvency (or the risk of unbalanced liquidity) of the enterprise. This risk is generated by a decrease in the level of liquidity of current assets, giving rise to an imbalance in the positive and negative cash flows for the investment project over time. In terms of its financial implications, this type of risk is also one of the most dangerous.

· Design risk. This risk is generated by the imperfection of the preparation of the business plan and design work for the object of the proposed investment, associated with a lack of information about the external investment environment, an incorrect assessment of the parameters of the internal investment potential, the use of outdated equipment and technology, which affects the indicators of its future profitability.

· Construction risk. This risk is generated by the selection of insufficiently qualified contractors, the use of outdated construction technologies and materials, as well as other reasons causing a significant excess of the stipulated terms of construction and installation works on the investment project.

· Marketing Risk. It characterizes the possibility of a significant reduction in the volume of sales of products provided for by the investment project, the price level and other factors leading to a decrease in operating income and profit at the stage of project operation.

· Project financing risk. This type of risk is associated with an insufficient total volume of investment resources from individual sources; an increase in the weighted average cost of capital attracted for investment; imperfection of the structure of sources of formation of borrowed funds.

· Inflationary risk. In an inflationary economy, it stands out in independent view project risks. This type of risk is characterized by the possibility of devaluation of the real cost of capital, as well as the expected income from the implementation of an investment project in an inflationary environment. Since this type of risk in modern conditions is permanent and accompanies almost all financial transactions for the implementation of a real investment project of an enterprise, constant attention is paid to it in investment management.

· Interest rate risk. It consists in an unforeseen increase in the interest rate in the financial market, leading to a decrease in the level of the project's net profit. The cause of this type financial risk(if we eliminate the previously considered inflationary component) is the change in the investment market environment under the influence of state regulation, an increase or decrease in the supply of free cash resources and other factors.

· Tax risk. This type of project risk has a number of manifestations: the likelihood of introducing new types of taxes and fees for the implementation of certain aspects of investment activities; the possibility of increasing the level of rates of existing taxes and fees; changing the terms and conditions for making certain tax payments; the likelihood of the cancellation of the existing tax benefits in the field of real investment of the enterprise. Being unpredictable for the enterprise (as evidenced by the modern domestic fiscal policy), it has a significant impact on the results of the project.

· Structural operational risk. This type of risk is generated by ineffective financing of current costs at the stage of project operation, which causes a high proportion of fixed costs in their total amount. A high operating leverage ratio in the event of unfavorable changes in the commodity market and a decrease in the gross volume of positive cash flow from operating activities generates a significantly higher rate of decrease in the amount of net cash flow under the investment project.

· Criminal risk. In the field of investment activities of enterprises, it manifests itself in the form of a fictitious bankruptcy declaration by its partners, forgery of documents that ensure the misappropriation of monetary and other assets related to the implementation of a project by third parties, theft of certain types of assets by their own personnel, and others. Significant financial losses incurred by enterprises in this regard the present stage when implementing an investment project, they determine the allocation of crime risk into an independent type of project risk.

· Other types of risks. The group of other project risks is quite extensive; in terms of the likelihood of occurrence or the level of financial losses, it is not as significant for enterprises as those discussed above. These include the risks of natural disasters and other similar "force majeure risks", which can lead not only to the loss of the foreseen income, but also to a part of the company's assets (fixed assets, inventories), the risk of untimely settlement and cash transactions when financing of the project (associated with an unsuccessful choice of a servicing commercial bank) and others.

According to the stages of project implementation, the following groups of project risks are distinguished:

· Project risks of the pre-investment stage. These risks are associated with the choice of an investment idea, the preparation of business plans, recommended for the use of investment goods, the validity of the assessment of the main performance indicators of the project.

· Project risks of the investment stage. This group includes the risks of untimely implementation of construction and installation works on the project, ineffective control over the quality of these works; ineffective project financing by stages of its construction; low resource support of the work performed.

· Design work post-investment (operational) stage. This group of risks is associated with untimely production reaching the intended design capacity, insufficient provision of production with the necessary raw materials and materials, irregular supply of raw materials and materials, low qualification of operating personnel; shortcomings in marketing policy, etc.

According to the complexity of the study, the following groups of risks are distinguished:

· Simple project risk. It characterizes the type of project risk, which is not subdivided into its individual subspecies. An example of a simple project risk is inflationary risk.

· Complex financial risk. It characterizes the type of project risk, which consists of a complex of its subspecies under consideration. An example of a complex project risk is the investment phase risk of a project.

According to the sources of occurrence, the following groups of project risks are distinguished:

· External, systematic or market risk (all of these terms define this risk as independent of the activities of the enterprise). This type of risk is typical for all participants in investment activities and all types of real investment transactions. It occurs when individual stages of the economic cycle change, changes in the investment market conditions and in a number of other similar cases that the enterprise cannot influence in the course of its activities. This group of risks can include inflation risk, interest rate risk, tax risk.

· Internal, non-systematic or specific risk (all terms define this project risk as dependent on the activities of a particular enterprise). It can be associated with unskilled investment management, ineffective structure of assets and capital, excessive adherence to risky (aggressive) investment operations with a high rate of return, underestimation of business partners and other similar factors, the negative consequences of which can be largely prevented through effective project management. risks.

The division of project risks into systematic and non-systematic is one of the important prerequisites for the theory of risk management.

According to the financial consequences, all risks are divided into the following groups:

· A risk that only entails economic losses. With this type of risk, the financial consequences can only be negative (loss of income or capital).

· Lost profit risk. It characterizes a situation when an enterprise, due to the prevailing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out the planned investment operation (for example, if the credit rating is downgraded, the enterprise cannot receive the necessary credit to form investment resources).

· The risk entailing both economic losses and additional income. In the economic literature, this type of financial risk is often called “speculative”, since it is associated with the implementation of speculative (aggressive) investment operations (for example, the risk of a real investment project, the profitability of which in the operational stage may be lower or higher than the calculated level).

By the nature of the manifestation in time, two groups of project risks are distinguished:

· Permanent project risk. It is typical for the entire period of the investment operation and is associated with the action of constant factors. An example of such investment risk is interest rate risk.

· Temporary project risk. It characterizes the risk of a permanent nature that arises only at certain stages of the implementation of an investment project. An example of this type of financial risk is the risk of insolvency of an efficiently functioning enterprise.

By the level of financial losses, project risks are divided into the following groups:

· Design risk tolerance. It characterizes the risk, financial losses for which do not exceed the estimated amount of profit on the investment project being implemented.

· Critical project risk. It characterizes the risk, financial losses for which do not exceed the estimated amount of gross income for the investment project being implemented.

· Catastrophic project risk. It characterizes the risk, financial losses for which are determined by partial or complete loss equity capital(this type of risk may be accompanied by the loss of borrowed capital).

Whenever possible, project risks are divided into the following two groups:

· Predicted project risk. It characterizes those types of risks that are associated with the cyclical development of the economy, changing stages of the financial market conjuncture, predictable development of competition, etc. The predictability of project risks is relative, since forecasting with a 100% result excludes the phenomenon under consideration from the risk category. An example of projected project risks are inflation risk, interest rate risk and some of their other types (of course, we are talking about predicting risk in the short term).

· Unpredictable project risk. It characterizes the types of project risks, characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation. An example of such risks are the risks of a force majeure group, tax risk and some others.

According to this classification criterion, project risks are also subdivided into regulated and unregulated within the enterprise.

Whenever possible insurance, project risks are also divided into two groups:

· Insured project risk. These include risks that can be transferred through external insurance to the relevant insurance organizations (in accordance with the nomenclature of project risks that they accept for insurance).

· Uninsured project risk. These include those types for which there is no supply of relevant insurance products in the insurance market.

It should be noted that the given classifications cannot be comprehensive. They are determined by the goal formulated by the classification feature. It is difficult to draw a clear line between certain types of project risks. A number of risks are interrelated (these risks are correlated), changes in one of them cause changes in the other. In such cases, the analyst should use common sense and his own understanding of the problem.

3. Analysis and assessment of project risks

Risk analysis (in investment design) is a process of studying the external and internal environment of the investment process, carried out in order to identify risks, assess their parameters, as well as predict the state of an enterprise operating under risk conditions, after a certain point in time by assessing key performance indicators as random quantities. The results of the analysis are used to make decisions and to develop measures to protect against possible losses.

The analysis of project risks can be divided into two mutually complementary types: qualitative and quantitative.

Qualitative analysis can be relatively simple, its main task is to determine risk factors, stages of work, during which the risk arises, i.e. identify potential areas of risk, and then identify all possible risks.

Qualitative analysis implies the identification of risks inherent in the project, their description and grouping. Usually, specific risks are identified that are directly related to the implementation of the project (project), as well as force majeure, managerial, legal. For the convenience of further tracking, project risks should be taken into account in stages: initial (pre-investment), investment (construction) and operational. The result of the stage of qualitative risk analysis should be a risk map of the project.

The description of risks at the stage of qualitative analysis does not provide information about possible losses or their probability; it serves as the basis for a quantitative risk analysis.

There are the following methods for qualitative risk analysis:

· method of expert assessments - a set of procedures aimed at identifying, ranking and qualitatively assessing the likely risks of a project based on the expert opinions of people with significant experience in project activities;

· SWOT analysis - allows you to visually contrast the strengths and weak sides the project, its opportunities and threats based on a qualitative risk assessment;

· spiral (“rose”) of risks - illustrated ranking of risks based on qualitative assessments of risk factors;

· analogy method or conservative forecasts - a study of the accumulated experience on projects in order to calculate the probabilities of losses.

It is necessary to note one important specific feature of the qualitative analysis of project risks, consisting in its quantitative result: the process of conducting a qualitative analysis of project risks must include not only a purely descriptive, "inventory" aspect of determining certain specific types of risks of a given project, identifying possible causes of the occurrence, analysis of the expected consequences of their implementation and proposals for minimizing the identified risks, but also the cost estimate of all these measures that minimize the risk of a specific project.

Conducting a quantitative analysis of project risks is a continuation of a qualitative study and assumes the presence of a certain basic option (expected profitability, calculations of project cash flows, equipment operation time, etc.), which may change as a result of the implementation of each of the noted risks. The task of quantitative analysis is to numerically measure the degree of influence of the project's risky factors on the behavior of the efficiency criteria of the entire investment project. Thus, a quantitative risk assessment is a numerical determination of the impact of individual project risks.

The quantitative risk analysis process includes the following stages:

· creation of a forecast model;

· definition of risk variables;

· determining the probability distribution of the selected variables and determining the range of possible values ​​for each of them;

· establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;

· model runs (determination of the characteristics of the resulting variables as random variables);

· analysis of results (construction of risk levels).

Risk variables are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, i.e. even small deviations from its intended value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyzes are used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the reaction of project results to changes in a particular project variable. The disadvantage of this analysis is that it does not take into account the realistic or unrealistic expected changes in the value of the analyzed variables. For the results obtained from the sensitivity analysis to be meaningful, the effect of the uncertainty surrounding the variables being tested should be considered.

For example, a small variance in the purchase price of a certain type of equipment per year Xhas very great importance for project revenue, but the likelihood of this deviation may be small if the supplier is bound by certain terms of the contract. Therefore, the risk associated with this variable is negligible.

To assess the degree of acceptability of the project risk, risk zones should be identified depending on the expected amount of losses.

Table 1. Characteristics of risk areas

Project risk zone Characteristic Risk-free zone Guaranteed financial result in the amount of the estimated profit zone Acceptable risk zone Possible financial losses in the amount of the estimated profit zone Critical risk zone Possible financial losses in the amount of the estimated income zone Catastrophic risk Possible financial losses in the amount of equity capital

The assumptions made are, to a certain extent, controversial and not always true for all types of risks, but in general they fairly accurately reflect the most general patterns of changes in project risk and make it possible to construct a probability distribution curve for profit losses, which is called a risk curve (Fig. 1.4).

The main thing in the quantitative assessment of project risk is the possibility of constructing a risk curve and determining the zones and indicators of permissible, critical and catastrophic risks.

Figure 2. - Risk curve

Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are most common:

1) statistical;

2)expert assessments;

)sensitivity analysis;

)assessing financial stability and solvency;

)assessing the feasibility of costs;

)analysis of the consequences of risk accumulations;

)method of using analogs;

)combined method.

Statistical method is to study the statistics of losses and profits that took place at a given or a similar enterprise, in order to determine the probability of an event, to establish the magnitude of the risk. Probability means the possibility of getting a certain result. For example, the probability of successfully promoting a new product on the market within a year is 3/4, and failure is 1/4. The magnitude, or degree of risk, is measured by two indicators: the average expected value and the variability (variability) of the possible outcome. The average expected value is related to the uncertainty of the situation. It is expressed as a weighted average of all possible outcomes E (x)where the probability of each outcome is Ais used as a frequency, or weight, corresponding to a value NS.

Probabilistic risk assessment is mathematically sufficiently developed, but relying only on mathematical calculations in the analysis of project risks is not always sufficient, since the accuracy of calculations largely depends on the initial information.

The method of expert assessments differs from the statistical one only in the method of collecting information to construct the risk curve. This method assumes the collection and study of estimates made by various specialists (of a given enterprise) regarding the likelihood of various levels of losses. An expert assessment is an expert opinion on a specific issue identified using a special method.

A variation of the expert method is the Delphi method. It is characterized by anonymity and controlled feedback. The anonymity of the members of the commission is ensured by their physical separation, which does not give them the opportunity to discuss the answers to the questions posed. The purpose of such a division is to avoid the "traps" of group decision-making, the dominance of the leader's opinion. After processing the result through controlled feedback, the generalized result is reported to each member of the commission. The main purpose of such an action is to allow one to get acquainted with the assessments of other members of the commission, without being subjected to pressure due to knowing who exactly gave this or that assessment. After that, the assessment can be repeated.

A project sensitivity analysis consists of the following steps:

· selection of a key indicator, against which the sensitivity is assessed (net present value NPV, internal rate of return IRR etc.);

· choice of factors (inflation rate, state of the economy, etc.);

· calculation of the values ​​of the key indicator at different stages of the project (purchase of raw materials, production, sale, transportation, capital construction, etc.);

Sensitivity analysis is based on a sequential unit change of variables tested for riskiness. At each step, only one of the variables changes its value by the predicted number of percent (± 5%, ± 10%, ± 15%, etc.), which leads to the recalculation of the final values ​​for the project. The sequences of costs and receipts of financial resources formed in this way make it possible to determine the flows of funds of funds for each moment (or period of time), i.e. define performance indicators. Diagrams are built, reflecting the dependence of the selected resulting indicators on the value of the initial parameters. By comparing the resulting diagrams with each other, it is possible to determine the so-called key indicators that most affect the assessment of the project's profitability.

Sensitivity analysis involves the following procedures:

1)Form a model of project justification in the form of a set of budgets using MS Excel, Project Expertany other specialized software.

2)Consider a model such as a "black box", a system at the input of which the initial data of the project (for example, the price of the product, the volume of expected sales, the discount rate, the rate on loans, the assumed inflation rate, etc.) are supplied, at the output " black box "" remove "only one parameter. Most often they are the meaning NPV

)The project rationale is calculated several times using the generated model for different values ​​of the initial data. In this case, the set of initial data is formed as follows: all parameters of the initial data, except one, are left constant unchanged, one parameter is considered variable, generating several of its values ​​(usually five) with a certain step of relative changes. Changes, for example, can be: - 20%; - ten%; 0%; + 10%; + 20%. The model is calculated several times for various changes in the variable parameter.

)Calculate the relative growth rate of the obtained values ​​of the net present value in relation to NPVthe basic version.

)The obtained values ​​of the specific growth are compared NPVwith a specific increase in the variable parameter.

)The procedure set out in paragraphs. 3-5 are repeated for other initial parameters, taking each of them separately as variables and fixing the others.

One of the disadvantages of sensitivity analysis is the premise that each input parameter changes independently of the others. Scenario analysis helps to correct this situation when a group of interdependent indicators changes at once.

Sensitivity analysis has a serious flaw - it is not comprehensive and does not specify the likelihood of alternative projects being implemented. The sensitivity analysis of an investment project is based on an analysis of changes in one factor, which is a significant limitation of this method. Overcoming this problem is carried out within the framework of the statistical test method and the scenario method, which are the development of the sensitivity analysis methodology.

Analogy method. When analyzing the risk of a new project, data on the impact of adverse risk factors on other projects can be very useful. When using analogs, databases on the risk of similar projects are used, research works design and survey institutions, interviews with project managers. The data obtained in this way is processed to identify dependencies in completed projects in order to take into account the potential risk when implementing new projects.

Some caution should be exercised when using the analogy method. Even in the most correct and well-known cases of unsuccessful completion of projects, it is very difficult to create the prerequisites for future analysis, i.e. prepare an exhaustive and realistic set of possible scenarios for project failures. The fact is that most of the negative consequences are characterized by certain features.

Simulation modeling (Monte Carlo method). Recently, the method of statistical testing - the Monte Carlo method - has become popular. Simulation modeling is a targeted series of multivariate studies performed on a computer using mathematical models. This direction corresponds to the main idea system analysis- a combination of human capabilities as a bearer of values, a generator of ideas for decision-making with formal methods that provide the possibility of using computers. Its advantage is the ability to analyze and evaluate various "scenarios" of project implementation and take into account different risk factors within one approach. Different types of projects have different vulnerabilities from the side of risks, which is revealed during modeling.

These parameters are used in simulation modeling, the algorithm of which can be represented in the form of the following sequence of steps:

1)As in the previous case, a project justification model is formed in the form of a set of budgets using Project Expertor other specialized software.

2)Similarly to the corresponding step in the sensitivity analysis algorithm for simulation modeling, a model such as a "black box" is also considered, a system into which the initial data of the project are supplied (for example, the price of a product, the volume of estimated sales, the discount rate, the rate on loans, the estimated level inflation, etc.). At the exit of the black box, only one parameter is “removed”. Most often they are the meaning NPV, which generates a project with such initial data.

)A variable factor is selected and, if necessary, the rest are fixed, but unlike the previous method, half of the model is calculated as follows. The model is "bombarded" with random numbers with a distribution law characteristic of the behavior of the initial variable parameter for the rest of the fixed values. Series of random numbers can be sequences of several thousand or even tens of thousands of values ​​simulating a change in a variable parameter, while in the sensitivity analysis such a series consisted of only five values.

)The resulting values ​​of the resulting parameter are processed (for example, NPV) in order to determine the characteristics of the behavior of the resulting quantity. The asymmetry and kurtosis of the resulting parameter is determined.

)The corresponding laws of behavior of the initial parameters are compared with the law of behavior of the resulting quantity. Changes in the parameters of the distribution of the resulting parameter in relation to the parameters of the behavior of the initial factor will indicate the significance, level of risk and the tendency to change the resulting parameter of the project.

)Appropriate conclusions are drawn and a risk factor management plan is drawn up.

The disadvantage of this method is that it uses probabilistic characteristics for assessments and conclusions, which is not very convenient for direct application and does not satisfy project managers. However, despite the indicated disadvantages, this method makes it possible to identify the risk associated with those projects for which the decision will not change. It should be noted that, in general, this method is quite laborious, because it provides for the cyclical repetition of the same calculations on the model many thousands of times in the process of substituting a series of random numbers as the initial data, due to which the method received its second name - the Monte method. Carlo. Practice shows that the use of Monte Carlo simulation is justified, first of all, for large and expensive projects.

Scenario method. Scenario methods include the following steps:

· a description of the entire set of possible conditions for the implementation of the project in the form of appropriate scenarios or models that take into account the system of restrictions on the values ​​of the main technical, economic, etc. project parameters;

· transformation of the initial information about uncertainty factors into information about the probabilities of individual conditions of implementation and the corresponding performance indicators or about the intervals of their change;

· determination of performance indicators of the project as a whole, taking into account the uncertainty of the conditions for its implementation.

As a result of the analysis of the scenarios, the impact on the indicators of the economic efficiency of the investment project of the simultaneous change in all other variables of the project characterizing its cash flows is determined. The advantage of this method is that the deviations of the parameters are calculated taking into account their interdependencies (correlations).

When building models, it is necessary to actively engage in the collection and formalization of expert assessments, especially in relation to production and technological risks. The main advantage of using expert assessments is the ability to use the experience of experts in the process of project analysis and taking into account the influence of various qualitative factors.

As a result, it is advisable to construct at least three scenarios: pessimistic, optimistic, and the most probable (realistic or average). The main problem in the practical use of the scenario approach is the need to build a model of an investment project and identify the relationship between the variables.

The disadvantages of the scenario approach include:

· the need for significant qualitative research of the project model, i.e. creation of several models corresponding to each scenario, including extensive preparatory work for the selection and analytical processing of information;

· insufficient uncertainty, blurring of the boundaries of scenarios. The correctness of their construction depends on the quality of the construction of the model and the initial information, which significantly reduces their predictive value. When constructing estimates of the values ​​of variables for each scenario, a certain voluntarism is allowed;

· the effect of a limited number of possible combinations of variables, which means that the number of scenarios to be worked out in detail is limited, as well as the number of variables to be varied, otherwise it is possible to obtain an excessive amount of information, the predictive power and practical value of which is greatly reduced.

Scenario the method of examination of project risks has the following features, which can be considered as its advantages:

· taking into account the relationship between variables and the influence of this relationship on the values ​​of integral indicators;

· construction of various options for the implementation of the project;

In conclusion, it should be noted that the choice of specific methods for assessing the risks of real investment is determined by a number of factors:

1.The type of investment risk.

2.The completeness and reliability of the information base formed to assess the level of probability of various investment risks.

.The qualification level of the investment managers performing the appraisal.

.The technical and software equipment of investment managers, the ability to use modern computer technologies for such an assessment.

.The possibility of attracting qualified experts, etc. to the assessment of complex investment risks.

4. Methods to reduce project risks

Understanding the nature of project risk and its quantitative assessment does not always allow for effective management of real investments. In this case, the methods and methods of direct impact on the level of risk with the aim of minimizing it, increasing the safety and financial stability of the design company are of particular importance.

Actions to reduce project risk are carried out in two directions:

1.Avoiding the appearance of possible risks.

2.Reducing exposure to risk.

The first is to try to avoid any possible risk for the firm. The decision to refuse risk can be made at the decision-making stage, as well as by giving up some type of activity in which the company is already involved. Avoiding the emergence of possible risks includes refusal to use in high volumes of borrowed capital (avoiding financial risk is achieved), refusal from excessive use investment assets in low-liquid forms (avoiding the risk of a decrease in liquidity). This direction reducing the level of project risk is the most simple and radical. It allows you to completely avoid possible losses, but also does not provide an opportunity to get the amount of profit that is associated with risky activities.

In order to reduce the impact of risks, there are two ways:

1.Take measures to ensure the fulfillment of contractual obligations at the stage of conclusion of contracts.

2.Exercise control over management decisions in the process of project implementation.

On the first path, there are several options:

·insurance;

· security (in the case of a loan agreement) in the form of a pledge, guarantee, surety, forfeit or retention of the debtor's property;

· stepwise unbundling of the project appropriation approval process;

· diversification of investments.

Variants of management decisions in order to reduce project risk can be carried out by the following methods:

1.Reserve funds to cover unforeseen expenses.

2.Loan restructuring.

Let's look at some of the ways to mitigate project risk.

One of the most important ways to reduce project risk is diversification, for example, the distribution of enterprise efforts among activities, the results of which are not directly related to each other. Any investment decision related to a specific project requires the person making this decision to consider the project in conjunction with other projects and with the existing activities of the enterprise. To reduce the risk, it is desirable to plan the production of such goods and services, the demand for which changes in opposite directions.

The distribution of project risk between project participants is an effective way to reduce it, it is based on partial transfer of risks to partners in individual investment situations. At the same time, it is most logical to make responsible the participant who has the ability to more accurately and better calculate and control risk. Risk allocation is taken into account when developing the financial plan of the project and is documented in contract documents.

Possible way risk reduction is his insurance, which, in essence, consists in transferring certain risks to the insurance company. When deciding on external risk insurance, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of this method of risk reduction, taking into account the following parameters:

1.The probability of an insured event occurring for this type of project risk.

2.The degree of insurance coverage for the risk, determined by the insurance ratio (the ratio of the insured amount to the size of the insurance property assessment).

.The size of the insurance rate in comparison with its average size in the insurance market for this type of insurance.

.The size of the insurance premium and the procedure for its payment during the insurance period, etc.

Foreign insurance practice uses full insurance of investment projects. The conditions of Russian reality allow for the time being only partially to insure project risks: buildings, equipment, personnel, some extreme situations.

Type of costs Change in unforeseen expenses,% Costs / duration of work of Russian performers + 20 Costs / duration of work of foreign performers + 10 Increase in direct production costs + 20 Decrease in production - 20 Increase in interest for a loan + 20

In addition to reserving for force majeure circumstances, it is necessary to create a system of reserves at the enterprise for optimal cash flow management. We are talking about the formation of a reserve fund, a fund for the repayment of bad accounts receivable, maintaining an optimal level material stocks and the normative balance of cash and cash equivalents. Funds reservation is, in fact, self-insurance (internal insurance) of the enterprise. It should be borne in mind that insurance reserves in all their forms, although they allow you to quickly compensate for the losses incurred, however, "freeze" the use of a rather tangible amount of investment resources. As a result, the efficiency of using the company's own capital decreases, and its dependence on external sources of financing increases.

Limiting as a way to reduce risks is to establish the maximum allowable amount of funds by the enterprise for the performance of certain operations (or stages of the project), in the event of the loss of which this will not significantly affect financial condition enterprises. Limiting is applied by banks when granting loans, by industrial enterprises - when selling goods on credit, determining the amount of capital investment, determining the amount of borrowed funds, and also in other situations.

Acquisition plays an important role in reducing project risks. additional information... The purpose of such an acquisition is to clarify some parameters of the project, increase the level of reliability and reliability of the initial information, which will reduce the likelihood of making an ineffective decision. Methods for obtaining additional information include purchasing it from other organizations, conducting an additional experiment, etc. Complete and reliable information- a product of a special kind, for which you have to pay, but these costs are paid off as a result of obtaining significant benefits from a less risky investment.

Concluding the review of the main aspects of the theory of project risk management, the following should be noted. Identification of project risks, their accounting and analysis is part of the overall system for ensuring the economic reliability of an economic entity.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the following main aspects should be noted.

Risk in a market economy accompanies any management decision. This especially applies to investment decisions, the consequences of which affect the activities of the enterprise during long period time.

Bibliography

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.Kalmykova, T.S. Investment analysis [Text] / T.S. Kalmykov. - M .: INFRA-M, 2009 .-- 240 p.

.V.V. Kovalev Introduction to financial management[Text] / V.V. Kovalev. - M .: Finance and statistics, 2008. - 786 p .: ill.

.Osipova, L.M. Economic assessment investment [Text]: guidelines/ L.M. Osipova. - Kemerovo: Printing house of GU KuzGTU, 2011 .-- 40 p.

.Kharlamenko, E.V. Quantitative analysis of investment project risks [Text] // E.V. Harlamenco. - Russian entrepreneurship. - 2009. - No. 5 (1).

.Tsarev, V.V. Evaluation of economic efficiency [Text] / V.V. Tsarev. - SPb .: Peter, 2007 .-- 464 p.

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